TOO CLOSE TO CALL

I HAVE LOOKED AT THE OUTSTANDING PRECINCTS- THIS IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL!!!!!!

G F Allen	Republican	898,328	49.65%
J H Webb Jr	Democratic	889,136	49.15%

Comments

[RichmondDem]

I hate recounts...

[Musa]

What are the remaining precincts? God, I really want Webb to pull this one out. Racists suck.

[akaison]

Loudoun County, Arlington, Virginia Beach and Richmond City. This will be a close fucking race--but it will come down to whether Webb can rack up 9,000 votes more to break his deficit

[akaison]

correctiobn 7700

[Bill White]

Well, as the biggest racist in Virginia, I voted for Jim Webb, so we can't suck too badly. LOL

[Poli-Carp]

Yeah, and Hanover and most of Chesapeake.

[FortyFour]

84.5% in, Allen up by about 8500

[JPTERP]

Lynchburg and Winchester are still at 0%.

Both of these broke for Bush in 2004 by about 8%; both broke for Kaine by about 3% in 2005.

[Matt]

Hmm, doubtful that we will find out the results of this tonight, I have a feeling this is more of a Deeds/McDonnell race then a Kaine/Kilgore race.

[lokiloki]

Webb will pick up 9000 in Richmond City.

[ifthethunderdontgetya]

What's Gail the Rail got now, 20k?

[Marine Mom]

MSNBC is saying recount for Va.

[lokiloki]

Norfolk will give Webb another 4000.

[FortyFour]

Drake up by about 4500 w/ 84% in

[lokiloki]

Newport another 1000 for Webb

[RichmondDem]

I wish folks in the General Assembly would seriously propose a constitutional amendment requiring a second round of voting between the top two candidates, if neither get 50%

What's up with PWC BOS race?

[RichmondDem]

And I mean for future elections

[akaison]

I also missed Roanoke City

[RichmondDem]

And I mean for future elections

130k+ absentee ballots requested -- say 100k completed

[jape]

Also lot's out in PW and a fair ammount in Loudon as well.

Lots out in Va Beach --

[akaison]

Allen's lead is now 5,100 with the same places at play as before- and with similar percentages left unreported- can Webb get this last 5100 from those places?

[Bwana]

My sizeable gut tells me this one is done, even after a recount, with Webb winning.

[akaison]

2300

[lokiloki]

Richmond is the key

Allen 3000 votes ahead - SBE

[lokiloki]

Richmond has only 67% precincts reporting, with those reporting favoring Webb at 72%... so around 10,000 votes outstanding... so count on another 7000 or so for Webb

Anyone else now "against rail"?

Any Allen holdout counties?

[vikram]

Whoa. Allen just for 20k votes??

[RichmondDem]

I sure as hell am against rail now...

[ifthethunderdontgetya]

Damn rail. Ride a bike!

[lokiloki]

shit... 26000 for allen

[RichmondDem]

Maybe there won't be a recount after all :(

[Sullygirl]

Is there any prediction on what percentage of absentee ballots are likely Webb?

[jape]

hanover no suprise

[akaison]

it just went really bad for webb 25 ,000 votes from soemehwere??

[JPTERP]

Yeah, that most recent report was brutal. It's going to be tough to close the gap, but I'm showing that parts of Fairfax still have 30% to go. The 3rd District still has 22% to go. Richmond City center still has places left to report.

[not gretchen bulova]

Hanover all came in and VB city came in.

That is where Allen's margin came from.

[lokiloki]

mostly dem-leaning districts outstanding... 11 only 70% in, 3 only 84% in.

92% in at SBE 49.9-49.0 for Allen, that means Webb needs 60%. Richmond City at 67%,
Loudon at 44.83, FFX at 99%.

Webb's running out of precincts.

[RichmondDem]

It tightened up again....49.82 Allen-48.82 Webb with 1.11% for Gail for Fail...

[Sullygirl]

CNN is showing a 25K difference and SBE is showing 18K vote difference. I'm so confused...

[akaison]

I think the race is over and allen won- too back for my home state peace out

[RichmondDem]

Looks to be tht way akaison...short of a miracle, anyway.

Hell Rail

[Marine Mom]

I can't believe people would vote for a racist.

Webb 18K behind, he'll pick up +7K in Richmond, he'll pick up +1K in Loudoun.

Where's the other 10K coming from?

[Jason]

1013pm - SBE - 92.26% reporting - Allen 49.86% - 48.94% (just under 20000 votes)

Petersburg

[not gretchen bulova]

Norfolk, Newport News, Absentees, Arlington

[not gretchen bulova]

Norfolk, Newport News, Absentees, Arlington

[Marine Mom]

How about the absentee ballots?

[Jason]

Richmond might help, 1/3 is still out.

[RichmondDem]

Don't absentee ballots usually reflect the electerate as a whole?

[not gretchen bulova]

3500 voters not on SBE for Webb from Arlington, not counting Absentee

Ok. +4K in arlington
+2/+3K in Petersburg.
+1K in Norfolk.
+2K Arlington

But he's got to beak even eleswhere.

[Jason]

Allen up by 30k on CNN

(oops counted arlington twice
w/ diff results).

[lokiloki]

absentee often favor GOP

[Jason]

You all aren't taking into consideration Allen gains in areas as well. The rest of these are not going to go 50/50.

Count another 2500 from Richmond for webb on the city website but not yet SBE

[jape]

How does Pr Wm break?

[lokiloki]

most allen areas already completed reporting

Webb might get +2K votes in Newport

[Jason]

1020 - do you have the RVA link? Just wanna take a peek.

[tom]

MSNBC saying don't get too downhearted if you're a dem...

PW is 50-49 Webb. 30% reporting (SBE)

http://www.ci.richmond.va.us/applications/elections/electionsViewPrecincts.asp

[Jason]

Tom - Of course they're saying that. "Please stay tuned, it's not over yet. Please?"

[Tom]

No...it was specific info from Webb campaign that they still think they may have the votes in precincts not called.

[College Student in the 757]

91% in..Hampton Roads and Richmond are key

so, VB has 53% with 60,356 votes for Allen-so far. Compared to Webb's 46 %

(and way to go Davis.)

[Jason]

Thanks, anon. Good numbers for Webb, another 1600 for Webb there alone.

Yeah, outstanding could put Webb close, and absentees could do it. Everyhting has to break Webb's way, though.

Check out Dailypress.com...they have a touch-pad State (county) breakdown...seems to be pretty updated.

[Terry]

If you take a look at the county/city breakdown on SBE, a VAST majority of the 7 percent remaining to be tallied are in HUGELY Democratic areas, MAINLY Arlington, and Richmond, but also Alexandria and Norfolk. The only *real* GOP area that still needs to be counted is VA beach, but even that is breaking ABOUT 55-45 Allen, not a landslide by any means.

Terry, yeah. Webb could make it close, but he's looking a biscuit short.

[RichmondDem]

G F Allen Republican 1,070,640 49.79%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,053,602 49.00%
G G Parker Independent Green 23,768 1.11%

Slowly moving, but in Webb's direction.

[Matt]

Down to 17k folks. There is still hope.

[lokiloki]

17039 needed!

Allen is about 30,000 votes ahead at 93% reporting.

I'd say the race is Allen's

[Jason]

1032anon - you're looking at CNN. SBE says 93% and it's only 17k. I'm thinking it's somewhere inbetween.

[Terry]

Where do most absentee ballots come from, the military correct? I wonder how many of those we will see come from military men/women who realize Webb is a veteran, or that he has a son in Iraq, and vote for Webb? Could be a MUCH larger margin voting for Dems than GOP this time around....or at least narrow the ratio down a little, anyone else think so?

[Mason Conservative]

If George Allen pulls this thing out, he needs to cut his seat in half and give it to John Warner, making him the senoir.5 senator from Virginia.

Still waaaaaaaay too close.

From CNN:

Virginia Senate

Updated: 10:31 p.m. ET
Allen
(Incumbent)
1,066,669 50%
Webb
1,035,746 49%
Full VA Parker
23,396 1%

93% of precincts reporting votes by county voter survey results

[JPTERP]

It comes down to absentees, which as stated above tend to break for the GOP.

Having said that, I can still see Webb closing the gap with the unofficial result. Dem leaning FFX still has a substantial number of votes out. Strongly leaning 3rd district still has votes out.

With the exception of the 4th, most of the GOP strongholds have already reported.

It's going to be tight.

Alexandria is 100% in.

[lokiloki]

arlington come on

[Jason]

Terr - Absentee Ballots may also have been huge among college students (usually Dem if they vote at all) and also among people who were a bit skeptical of the electronic voting machines (again, Dems). The question is, how many have been sent in?

[lokiloki]

shows how crappy CNN exit polls are

Crystal Ball prediction:

Allen won

Drudge says Allen up by 17K with 97.2% in -- can he be ahead of SBE?

[Matt]

Down to 11k! Go web go.

[Jason]

Within 9k now

[lokiloki]

11000 needed

Down to 11K margin

94.15% in

[lokiloki]

where's a libertarian candidate when we need him!

22963 is the margin to trigger a recount.