Not Larry Sabato

39th District Primary

Ending a month long controversy, the 39th Senate District Democrats decided on an open primary June 12th to determine their nominee against Jay O'Brien.

Blogosphere- this was a huge victory for all of us.  There is no question that the pressure all of you brought forth changed the outcome here!  Thanks to all the supporters of a fair and open primary.  Shannon Sullivan, the district chairwoman handed her duties in a professional manner that put integrity first.  Thanks to her, and the previous legislative chairwoman Sharon Stark for ensuring this decision would be made in the best interest of Democratic voters, and not a particular candidate.

Thumbs down in all of this goes to George Barker, who refused to give up his dreams of a caucus until the very end. I think a lot of voters saw through that, and he eliminated a large amount of his advantage in the primary against Greg Galligan with this month long push for a closed process.  We'll get to hear what people think about these two candidates in just over four months.

New Primary Outlook:  Toss Up

Transportation Bill Passes Committee

YEAS - Callahan (Chairman), Putney (Vice Chairman), Morgan, Tata, Hamilton, Ingram, May, Sherwood, Cox, Wardrup, Reid, Landes, Jones (of Suffolk), Hogan, Ware (of Roanoke City), Howell (of Norfolk), BaCote, Dance. 

NAYS - Abbitt, Phillips, Joannou, Brink,

ABSTAIN - Spruill, Scott (of Fairfax).

Yes, you read that correctly.  Johnny Joannou and Bob Brink both voted No.  hahaha.

I can't wait to see the floor vote on this.

16 Northern Virginia House Democrats are looking like Harris Miller when Jim Webb announced, trying to decide how to vote.

Amy Reger 0-5- UPDATED

Democratic Party Executive Director Amy Reger was hyped as an expert in Prince William County when she was hired this year.

Her record in the FIVE local Prince William races since becoming Executive Director-
ZERO wins
FIVE Losses (Hurst, Feder, Rishell, Pandak, Dion)

What makes this worse is the opportunities lost.  Prince William has always been more Republican in lower turnout election.  Getting an opportunity to elect a Board Chairman in a federal election year, with a Democratic wave- and Jim Webb winning the county at the top of the ticket- Democrats were still crushed.  When will they ever get an opportunity like that again?

Meanwhile, the 50th District Special election is another great example. Held in a district no statewide Democrat had carried in memory- Jim Webb came within 400 votes of winning this year.  All Democrats needed was 200 crossover voters and they could steal a long held GOP seat.  Instead the crossover went AGAINST them as Rishell lost by almost 1,000. Again, when will they get an opportunity like that again?

With Democratic hopes in the State Senate resting on Prince William success in the Colgan and O'Brien seats- and House of Delegates hopes rested on winning in the McQuigg, Frederick, and possibly Marshall and Lingamfelter seats- the question becomes:

How many more Reger led losses can Democrats afford?

UPDATE:  As BVBL is covering, the resignations of the PWCDC are now rolling in.  These are all Reger allies- FYI. She trashed Hilda Barg while she was supposed to be helping her on the Coordinated Campaign in 2005, and they went on to lose that race 51-49.  Reger has chosen the wrong side of this fight.  Now due to her divisiveness, the Prince William Democrats are collapsing.

Democratic Governor Primary/Caucus

I've heard some mumblings recently that some Democrats on the State Central Committee may be considering voting for a convention process to select the candidate for Governor in 2009.

While I would be highly opposed to a closed process like this taking place, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at what the convention would look like.  This assumes a race of Brian Moran versus Creigh Deeds.  The name of Leslie Byrne can not be ignored either, but she isn't actively running like Brian or Creigh are, so I won't analyze her chances until she says she is interested.

While the exact rules of the convention would be up to the Democratic Party of Virginia State Central Committee, the two most recent Democratic conventions have had the same rules.  2,000 Delegates, divided by Democratic votes in the last Presidential and Governor races (equally weighted).  While the 2008 results would change this somewhat, the 2005 numbers will not change.  So overall, calculating this now will slightly underestimate the area of the state trending the most Democratic (Northern Virginia). 

Remember- with 2,000 Delegates, it would only take 1,001 to win.

Delegates by Congressional District under the Presidential/Governor Plan:

8th CD:  248 Delegates
11th CD:  212 Delegates
3rd CD:  211 Delegates
10th CD:  193 Delegates
7th CD:  192 Delegates
4th CD:  173 Delegates
5th CD:  173 Delegates
1st CD:  169 Delegates
6th CD:  149 Delegates
9th CD:  143 Delegates
2nd CD:  137 Delegates

As you can see, under that weighted plan Brian Moran would win 653 Delegates if he carried each locality in the three Northern Virginia districts, while Creigh Deeds would only win 292 Delegates by carrying every locality in the 6th and the 9th.  Even if Creigh also won every locality in the 5th district (demographically similar to 6th and 9th, but different local politics) he would be at 465 Delegates or almost 200 short of Moran going into the rest of Eastern Virginia.

Creigh's best chance would be an old downstate trick of using only the Governor's election as the formula.  Unfortunately for Creigh, this would be a bad year to do so because Jerry Kilgore over performed normal GOP performance in most of the 9th District.  So while it would benefit him, the benefits would be considerably less than they normally would.

Using a Governor's only formula, the Congressionals break down like this:

8th CD:  236 Delegates
7th CD:  209 Delegates
11th CD:  204 Delegates
3rd CD:  203 Delegates
10th CD:  185 Delegates
5th CD:  177 Delegates
4th CD:  174 Delegates
1st CD:  171 Delegates
6th CD:  160 Delegates
9th CD:  146 Delegates
2nd CD:  135 Delegates

This would cut Brian Moran's take from the three Northern Virginia CD's to 625 Delegates (down 28 from formula above) while Creigh Deeds would get 306 Delegates (up 14 from formula above) in his strongest areas of the 6th and 9th.  Include the 5th and Creigh climbs to 483 (up 18 from formula above).  So overall Creigh would go into Eastern Virginia down 142 Delegates, instead of being down 188 in the Governor/Presidential formula, a fairly big swing.

Of course taking Presidential only, Northern Virginia would soar to being 680 Delegates, meaning Moran would only need 321 of the 1,320 elected downstate (24%) to win the nomination.  Assuming current trends continue, that number might even go higher after the 2008 Presidential election.

So to review, here is how all three formulas would work out, assuming Moran can win all Delegates in the 8th, 10th and 11th, while Creigh wins all Delegates in the 5th, 6th and 9th.

-----------------------MORAN-----------------DEEDS---------------------?????????
PRES ONLY---------680 (34%)---------------446 (23%)--------------874 (43%)
GOV ONLY----------625 (31%)---------------483 (24%)--------------892 (45%)
PRES/GOV----------653 (33%)---------------465 (23%)--------------882 (44%)

Assuming, the combined formula, Deeds would need to win 536 of the 882 remaining Delegates to win the nomination, or 61%. In the Presidential formula, he would need 555 of 874 or 64%, while the Governor's election formula, Creigh would need 518 of 892 or 58%.  As you can see, the formula selection would have a huge impact in the nominee.

In all formulas Moran starts over 100 Delegates ahead, so I would deem Moran the early favorite if the nomination method is a convention in 2009. 

Of course, don't forget Leslie Byrne who could compete in caucuses with more liberal voters in a lot of areas around Virginia- and would make this race totally unpredictable.  Never forget Leslie.

Prince William Special Election

I just got back from visiting some precincts in the special election going on today in Prince William County.

3:28 P.M. PROJECTION:  Mike May has defeated Jeff Dion.

The Board of Supervisors remains 6 Republicans and 2 Democrats.

New Mail Company

Steve Jarding, Jessica Vanden Berg and Kristian Denny Todd have just formed a new direct mail company.

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!

Click here to see one of the brillant pieces they are promoting to help you win your campaign!  My favorite is the "I've got a secret" piece. 

hahahhahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah!!!!!!!

Shaun Kenney Bombs?

From the National ABC story on Democrats filming Republicans in Richmond:

""It's an effort to demonize Republicans," said Shaun Kenney, communications director for the Virginia Republican Party. "It's about targeting and embarrassing Republican delegates," he said."

...

""The concern of a lot of folks, both Democrat and Republican, is that it would be one thing to record votes, but it's another thing to try to catch delegates doing something and use it politically," he said.

Kenney argued a key example is the edited video of Republican delegate Jeffrey M. Frederick.

"Take a look at that one," said Kenney. "This is about shaming or badgering Republicans.""

At Shaun's request:

No, Shaun,  that is not about shaming or badgering Delegate Frederick. That's about showing people what an asshole he is.  Remember- this is the same Delegate who went up and screamed at a high school student last year- then when he found out it was going to be published called that student up and offered to "be his friend".

I think everyone in his district should watch that video and decide if Jeff Frederick is worthy of being in public office. I'm glad Shaun agrees.  And I'm sure DPVA thanks you Shaun for the publicity for their site. 

 

Frank Hargrove, Biblical Scholar

HAHAHA!  Click here for a good laugh.

The potential of this bringing another response from David Englin is worth an alert!!!

Since Others are doing this...

You Are Most Like Bill Clinton

No doubt, your legacy may be a little seedier than you'd like. But even though you've done some questionable things, you're still loved by almost all.

What Modern US President Are You Most Like?

George Barker and Doug Wilder

In 1989, George Barker voted in the Republican primary for Governor of Virginia.

The Democrats only had one candidate-  Doug Wilder.

Does anyone have any idea what Barker had against Wilder?