Prince William Special Election

I just got back from visiting some precincts in the special election going on today in Prince William County.

3:28 P.M. PROJECTION:  Mike May has defeated Jeff Dion.

The Board of Supervisors remains 6 Republicans and 2 Democrats.

Comments

[Houdon]

Congrats to George Mason Law alum Mike May!

[asmith]

I guess they vote early in Occoquan.

Let me be the first to thank PhriendlyJaime for making that possible.

Without your careless posts and rants about BLBL, many mainstream Dems would have never known about Dion's personal matters.

Thanks again, PhriendlyJaime, for causing many NoVa Democratic contributors for hesitating to donate to Jeff's campaign.

You're special.

Does anyone else think this could be sweet for Dion's ex wife? Once the kids get older she can honestly tell them that Jeff lost because he chose a man over her. For anyone who has been through a breakup- how sweet is that?

[phriendlyjaime]

Huh? I wrote one piece on my blog. ONE. One on RK, where there have been numerous posts and diaries and comments by OTHERS about his personal life.

I don't even know what you mean by BLBL.

But I feel way honored that you, my dear anon, think I am powerful enough to swing an election. I guess JMDD is DEFINITELY done for now, huh?

Call Chap, Ben! HE WON BECAUSE OF ME!

MEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!

Jaime: You just never know when to shut your mouth, something I'm sure you learned in NJ.

[James Young]

I like your attitude, Ben, but I don't count my chickens etc.

[phriendlyjaime]

Damns, anon! I feel like I just got BYYYYYYYYYYYRRRRRNNNNNNNED!

[phriendlyjaime]

Ben, I need a graphic. You know, me, with my huge mouth, stealing elections all over the place. I think anon agrees. I am so powerful, it hurts, seriously.

PJ:

Should read BVBL. If you don't understand what that means, then buy a clue.

As far as Chap v. JMDD, STAY THE HELL AWAY FROM THAT RACE.

Chap is doing just fine on his own, and there are lots of supporters who are on the ground helping him. Webb supporters, Miller supporters, Hurst supporters, Longmyer supporters, Connolly supporters, Byrne supporters -- all of us are united in the 34th District to beat JMDD.

You lack common sense and reasonability. So please, keep quiet and your fingers off the keyboard when it comes to "helping" Chap.

[phriendlyjaime]

Oh, now see, if you had actually typed BVBL, I would know what you meant. But you typed BLBL, so I had no clue.

You need to get over me, by the way. Jeez, obsess much?

[Poli-Carp]

You know, since we've been branding people racist for superficial reasons over the last few months, does anyone else think that Chap! looks like a young George Wallace? Check out some of the pictures of Wallace after he came back from WWII.

[Nate de la Piedra]

Ok, let me be the first to ask.

On what basis are you making this call? Lack of Dion vols at the polls, your on personal "exit polls"?

Hard to believe that you can call this early w/o any data.

Let us know how you did it.

[asmith]

Will this put you at 99.9% accurate?

[phriendlyjaime]

I did it, Nate. I did it. I wished for it, and I got it. Duh.

[Dannyboy]

Ben's calling it early, but I trust him. The dude usually knows what he's talking about when he calls something. He called Webb's victory days before the AP did.

Congrats, Mr. May.

This is a dangerous projection. Regular family voters usually vote in two's (one dick and one place to put it). Homosexuals can line up behind each other and so can possibly vote in the hundreds as one large chain. So in a low turnout election, it only could take one homosexual chain to put Dion over the top.

[BWAHAHAHAHAHA]

Anon 4:50 is in the early running for comment of the year.

NLS

It really would help if you gave us the reason for your prediction. Did you talk to the poll workers? Do an impromptu exit poll? Count bumper stickers?

Enquiring minds want to know.

[not gretchen bulova]

It is probably a combination of it all Anon 5:01

In the past NLS has used past turnout vs. current turnout. Ideas about the race before hand, election day workers and asking people who vote.

[asmith]

Webb did win this district, but NLS is probably thinking this is more of a Davis/Hurst type matchup. According to Vince Rockledge 14%, Old Bridge 11%, Lake Ridge 8%, and Bethel 7% have the highest turnout. Those precincts would favor May. Springwoods 3%, Mohican 5%, and Occoquan 4% have the lowest turnout and are likely going for Dion.

[republitarian]

"Homosexuals can line up behind each other".....

Oh, that's funny.....

[ZB]

Didn't NLS call it for Creigh Deeds?

[TLM]

Again with the anal sex references. So much more to gay male sex than that...pity you boys are so limited in your imagination. Pity your bored wives too... ;-)

[Nate de la Piedra]

When do the polls close, and where can we see the election results?

Doesn't May work for Albo's firm? Gotta be a perk for Albo, if so.

Meades 2 Walkinshaw 0

[not gretchen bulova]

The polls should have closed at 7 but as of now the PWC site isn't showing any vote totals

[Proud Republican]

I just looked at the PWC web site. It looks like Mike is ahead by about 450 votes with only 3 precincts still outstanding. So far he's won every precinct that's reported in, as well as the absentee ballots. I don't know how strong or weak those last three precincts are, but it seems to me it will be awfully tough for Dion to make up that many votes in such a low turnout election.

[Proud Republican]

I just checked again. The final three precincts have reported in, and Mike ended up winning by right around 450 votes. Dion actually carried 2 out of those last three precincts by small margins.

[kindler]

The party of Mark Foley Family Values wins this round.

[Disturbed NOVA Democrat]

I join with Anon 3:34, 3:47, 4:03, in crediting phriendlyjamie with an assist in Jeff Dion's loss.

I also share the concern of others that she keep her nose out of northern Virginia Democratic politics.

By parroting BVBL's diatribe about Jeff on her own website and then publishing her rant on RK as well, phriendlyjamie gave BVBL a far larger audience of Democrats to spread his hate and damage Jeff's candidacy.

It didn't help that PJ put up her stupid and insensitive post on the eve of Jeff's announcement of his candidacy.

So phreindlyjamie, please don't "help" us in NOVA anymore. Don't you have enough to keep yourself busy in Richmond?

[kindler]

Although I disagreed with the posting in question, I think it's silly to blame and scapegoat Jamie for Jeff Dion's loss. An election that was won by 450 votes could have gone either way for a wide variety of reasons.

[t]

PJ - you da man!

Yeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaah!

You go girl!

[Nate de la Piedra]

OK, so who really thinks that 450 Democrats in one decided to stay home when only 3,000 people voted. 15% of the electorate is a large fucking number, let's not kid ourselves.

1. not that many people read the blogs.

2. doubt it had that much of an impact on too many voters.

Quit blaming phriendlyjamie, and start doing an actuall post-mortem.

Jeff Dion sent out an email which stated that he was openly gay, in response to the piece BVBL did.

http://www.bvbl.net/?p=515

This diary was put up by someone else on Raising Kaine before the one you are all referring to:

http://raisingkaine.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6267

As you can see, it was before Jamie put her diary up, and as you can also see from the link, the only person irritated was George Burke, who I believe was banned from here by NLS anyway. So to give her so much attention is just silly.

[t]

PhriendlyJaime, Honeychild, you be trippin'

Don't be lettin' dem naysayers says you can't be smackin dose liberals upside the head and settin' da record straight

Yeeeeeeah, dat's right

[NotKennyKlinge]

Mike is a great guy and will make an incredible Supervisor. This should raise Nick Meads's capital even higher than the stratospheric levels it has already attained. I mean, really: first the Tom Davis win--one of the few bright spots in 2006--and now three months later this one right out of the 07 gate. Whoever gets Meads this summer is the one to watch...

[Riley, Not O'Reilly]

Final result was 57-43 according to our contributor "Proud Republican" over on Virtucon. That was my prediction mid-day today, too.

http://virginiavirtucon.wordpress.com/2007/01/30/occoquan-voters-dont-forget-to-vote-for-mike-may-today/

[Not Larry Sabato]

Blaming Jaime for this is one of the dumbest things I have ever seen on this blog.

[t]

PhriendlyJaime, girlfriend, Ben still don't think you da man.

Ben be trippin'

Ben don't know you got da power, baby?

Anon 11:11 PM,

You are right, the RK post you linked did come up first. That post was #6267 (Rob's post).

Phriendly’s post was #6268—posted within an hour of #6267. Phriendly’s #6268 also linked BVBL’s venomous blog.

Rob at RK did a very good job at informing bloggers about Jeff the day before he formally announced. On the other hand, PJ broke an important basic rule: Don’t give the opponent added traction by spreading his own message! PJ made it worse by doing this the day before a very important weekend for Jeff and his supporters.

I do not think some of you realize how influential (negative and positive) your posts can be to the many NoVA Dems who look at RK, NLS, etc. for their daily fix. Just as you have a wonderful opportunity to motivate Dems throughout NoVA, you also risk scaring off many Dems who may otherwise contribute and volunteer in magisterial districts and counties they do not even live in. Rob strived to bring us together while PJ likely scared off some non-PWC contributors and volunteers.

Phriendly’s actions were not the sole cause of Jeff’s election loss, but she sure didn’t do him any favors.

--Anon 4:03 PM

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

Anon 4:03

Any Dems that were "scared off" by the obnoxious blog posts---made not by Dems but by an over the top jackass (BVBL)---are just stupid.

The blog battle on this race probably didn't even register to 90% of the people who voted, if not more. No one I talked to in Occoquan on Sunday (about 30 people) even mentioned it, but they did mention that they'd talked to Jeff and that they'd really liked the letter from Jeff's Mom.

PJ is not to blame. Neither is NLS. Lest you forget their posts made were rebuffing the IDIOCY of BVBL and the other blog hooligans.

That idiocy includes Democrats who were stupid enough to lend any credibility to the idea that being a gay candidate is a liability.

I am disappointed that there wasn't more of an outpouring from NoVA Dems to work hard to get out Jeff's vote and fund him (although from my experience down there on Sunday James W did a great job with the resources he had). Who knows, maybe that would have pushed another 400 people out in those Dem precincts.

I am sad for the people of Occoquan because they lost a golden opportunity to elect a real public servant and a good man.

Congrats to Jeff for giving it his all, and good luck to Mike May. May he do good work for the people of Occoquan--at least as good as I'm sure Jeff would have done.

Well said, Doug.

NLS - you calling this election at 3:28 p.m. wasn't impressive at all. By 10 a.m. the republicans working for May knew that the turn out in their more Republican precincts was very high...and low for Dion in the more Democratic precincts.

I see Andrea "pleeease give me some attention" Chamblee, our political operative in Maryland has a post about a Mike May at Freddie Mac over at RK?! Hahahahah. I thought he worked for a law firm. I guess O'l Chamblee forgot to take her meds. I'm sure she worked really hard on this race...How many people saw Chamblee walking the neighborhoods of Occoquan?

[AndreaC]

Sorry to disappoint you, PJ and I decided to split the attention and the invective for this race. She won this. I get next.

Am I the only one wondering if you are clever enough to come up with another way to insult other than firstname "middle school playground joke" lastname sorryass sortajoke? A battle of wits with you is an oxymoron.