Great Move Democrats!!!!!!

It's time for a Brian Moran Alert.

On today's abortion ban, Republicans made a motion to send the bill back to committee, which would basically kill it without a vote.  The Speaker asked for a voice vote- and sources tell me he looked shocked when the Democrats rose up and voted NO on sending the bill to committee.

That forced a real vote on the bill!!!!  With that the bill failed 43-53.

Northern Virginia Republicans voting for a 100% ban on abortion-
Tim Hugo, Jackson Miller, Jeff Frederick, Bob Marshall, Michele McQuigg, and Scott Lingamfelter.

With that- the following races change ratings:

Jackson Miller
Old Outlook: Safe Republican
New Outlook: Likely Republican

Jeff Frederick
Old Outlook:  Slight-Lean Republican
New Outlook:  Toss Up

Tim Hugo
Old Outlook:  Safe Republican
New Outlook:  Likely Republican

The entire Democratic Caucus deserves credit for this.  Thanks to their leadership the people of Virginia now know which 43 Delegates support a 100% ban on abortions with no exceptions.  Of course, this kind of move takes leadership, so Brian Moran, take a bow!!! You just moved at least three GOP held seats more competitive. More on the vote count later when it becomes available.

The biggest loser here is Tim Hugo.  His district is the 2nd richest district in Virginia, yet it has been trending Democratic.  Earth to Tim- if they are super wealthy and voting for Democrats- it is social issues they are voting on!!  Depending on how his two opponents use this, his race could go all the way to "Leans" on this one vote.

UPDATE:  One other rating change.  This one had been rated "Leans Republican" due to the political chaos in the district (Herndon Immigrant Day Care and Loudoun County Republican Supervisor scandals were both in this one district).  However Tom Rust just reminded everyone why he does so well in elections in his moderate district with his NO vote today.

Old Outlook:  Leans Republican
New Outlook:  Likely Republican

---------------SAFE     LIK    LEAN     TU     LEAN   LIK   SAFE

Western----------13------4-------3-------0--------1---------3------3 
Northern----------0-------7-------1--------2--------3---------2-----11
H. Roads----------7-------2-------3-------0--------2---------0------7
Richmond---------7--------2-------0------1--------0----------0------4
Other--------------6--------2-------0-------0--------1----------0-------3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------33-------17------7--------3--------7---------5-------28

Comments

[James Martin]

Well Done Delegate Moran!

[Next]

I just want to know who is running against Marshall so I can send a lot of money!

[Matt]

Good...hopefully some of the bastards will have to think twice before proposing crappy shit like this again.

[Not Fairhole County]

What are the numbers in these House Districts from last year's gay marriage amendment?

[republitarian]

Ben, I think Tim is perfectly aware of what he did....and needs no "messages" from earth, you, or anywhere/anyone else.

Kudos to you Del.Hugo. While I don't agree with the bill and think it's a tad extreme.....you stand on principle, and for that you should be commended.

[Dannyboy]

Good political move by NoVA Dems. And I'm glad this bill is dead. This bill just went way too far.

[Hamilton]

Much respect to Delegate Hugo for keeping his to his principles and campaign promises even though they might hurt his re-election. It is nice to see that some members are willing to hang tough with their principles.

[not gretchen bulova]

Dannyboy earlier you were talking about the stuff you liked in the bill. In fact you spent 20 posts today talking about abortion being murder

At least we know 53 VA reps support murder. Sad Really.

[Houdon]

Everyone got up in arms over the destruction of an innocent rooster during the Great Cockfighting Debate of '07, but where are these "progressives" on this century's emancipation issue: abortion? Where are the vegans who find it unconscionable to eat an egg, but won't bat an eye at the destruction of an embryo?

[republitarian]

Ouch!

GREAT POINT.

[Dannyboy]

NGB:
Again, with the putting of words into my mouth.

By the way, I'm with Lowell over on RK. Regardless of my position on this...or my penis' position, for that matter... any law making abortion illegal should be put to referendum.
Posted by: Dannyboy | February 05, 2007 at 11:25 AM

Jaime:
I have never one called for an outlaw on abortion. I have only said that I wouldn't shed a tear if it were.
I personally am very opposed to abortion unless it has to do with rape or mother's life. I don't view a fetus as a mass of tissue, I view it as a living thing with the potential of being a self-sustaining human being that could contribute to this society.
However, I know that abortions aren't going to end if they're outlawed. Instead of being done in clean hosptial rooms, they'll be done in back alleys with rusty tools. All I have to do is imagine my little sister in that kind of situation, and I find myself very confused about where I stand.
I wouldn't want to criminalize, or put in danger, some woman (be it family or friend) I care about because she's scared and doesn't know what else to do. That's why I'm on the line. It has nothing to do with "privacy rights" (bull) or "woman's body" (bull).
I used to be fervently pro-choice. But all it takes is a few philosophy classes at VT to turn a pro-choicer into a semi-pro-lifer. I would definitely support stronger limitations on abortion.
Posted by: Dannyboy | February 05, 2007 at 12:01 PM

I'd say that this bill goes too far, yes. It doesn't make exceptions for rape or mother's life. Still, my mixed feelings have more to do with the whether or not we should, in fact, outlaw abortion.
My gut tells me the abortion is horribly, horribly wrong in almost all cases. However, I am also very reluctant to turn women into criminals. Maybe I'll post on it later.
Posted by: Dannyboy | February 04, 2007 at 11:00 PM

Mark the quote where I say that "This bill goes too far." I have said that I personally disapprove of abortion. And I also said that I would mind stricter limitations. But I have never once called for it to be outlawed.

[phriendlyjaime]

Nice, good work. Hanson, hey; you're still A-OK in my book. ;)

The alert is good, but I think we should expand on people crying. There's no reason for an Englin graphic, but I do love the teary graphics. Get to work on that.

[KnowsAll]

How can one find out how the Delegates voted?

I checked the state bill tracking site and it only give the vote total.

Thanks for any help.

Please understand that these delegates didn't just vote against abortion, they also voted against certain forms of the birth control pill.

Ben - you seem to get Frederick's district wrong. This was a 62% pro-marriage amendment district. This was a good vote for him. You should up his rating, not down it.

[Houdon]

Referenda erode representative democracy and should not be used to decide legislative questions. If you need an example, take a look at the apathy referenda have bred in Houdon's native France. The Fifth Republic is a disaster exactly because too frequent referenda cause citizens to disengage from their elected representatives.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Frederick's district voted easy for Leslie Byrne. It's not a pro-life district. In fact, I can't think of a pro-life statewide candidate who carried it recently.

[Dannyboy]

First, let me correct the above. I WOULDN'T mind stricter limitations.

I believe that abortion is very immoral, but I believe making abortion illegal will cause more harm than good. Which leaves me in quite a dilema. The way I see it, either way innocent people get hurt. Yeah, it sucks to be in the gray area.

To Next at 7:28,

Unfortunately, Marshall's opponent will be a liberal candidate, Roemmelt. A good guy to be sure. But this district is already consistently electing an uber-right-winger - and a really liberal guy is just not going to be able to take him out.

Marshall's district has changed dramatically since his election via a four way primary (he received under 30% of the vote) in 1991. He's in big trouble this year.

Hopefully Walkinshaw will retire after losing every race he has touched and let someone who can help Bruce win get involved.

[UVA08]

Well you know according to the WSJ et al the reason Republicans in the state have been losing is because they haven't been conservative enough....

Ben: a democrat district does not equal a pro-choice district. Under that logic, you have no pro-life democrats, evangelicals that are democrats, nor social conservative african-americans (who are mostly democrats, pro-marriage amendment, and strongly pro-life). Sometimes it seems like your political analysis is way too one-dimensional.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Eh, you kind of undermine your credibility in analyzing how members of the Democratic Party vote when you call it a "Democrat district". Didn't you notice even the President stopped doing that?