Outlook: Likely Republican
Phil Hamilton's 93rd district is based overwhelmingly in the Democratic City of Newport News. While Hamilton does not have the overwhelmingly Democratic precincts (which go to Delegate Mamie Bacote) he does have a fairly solid Democratic district. In fact, the numbers here are very similar to the district I live in here in south-central Fairfax, with tiny GOP victories for President and the Marriage Amendment, but much larger Democratic victories in the other elections.
In the Presidential election, George W. Bush squeaked out a 12,853-12,597 vote victory in this district. That margin was thanks the the only two precincts in this district not in Newport News- but instead in James City County where Bush won 2,243-1,489. Kerry won the Newport News side by a 11,108-10,610 count.
In the Governor's election Tim Kaine romped here by a count of 7,644-5,599. With the James City County precincts voting 1,266-1,230 the entire margin came out of Newport News- a count of 6,378-4,369.
George Allen won the James City County precincts 1,634-1,429 but was swamped in the Newport News precincts by a 7,826-6,021 count. Downballot the marriage amendment did much better overall but the results were interesting. The James City County precincts that were much more GOP upballot voted "No" by a count of 1,450-1,587, while the more Democratic Newport News precincts voted "Yes" by a count of 7,676-6,231.
The Democratic performance of this district is what keeps Hamilton from being safe, but he is a very strong incumbent. It will be interesting to see if the Democrats even field a candidate to take on this challenge.
93rd District Results
George W. Bush 12,853 (50.5%)- John Kerry 12,597 (49.5%)
Jerry Kilgore 5,599 (42.3%) - Tim Kaine 7,644 (57.7%)
George Allen 7,655 (45.3%) - Jim Webb 9,255 (54.7%)
Yes on Marriage 9,126 (53.9%) - No on Marriage 7,818 (46.1%)
March 7th- Bob Marshall v. Bruce Roemmelt (Outlook: Likely GOP)
March 8th- Tom Rust v. Jay Donahue (Outlook: Likely GOP)
March 9th- John Welch v. Bobby Mathieson (Outlook: Leans GOP)
March 10th- Dave Hunt v. Margi Vanderhye v. Rip Sullivan (Outlook: Slight-Lean DEM)
March 11th- Bill Carrico v. Susie Garner (Outlook: Safe GOP)
March 12th- Ben Cline v. ??? (Outlook: Safe GOP)
March 13th- Joe May v. Marty Martinez (Outlook: Likely GOP)
March 14th- Danny Marshall v. Adam Tomer (Outlook: Leans GOP)
March 19th: Jeff Frederick v. Chris Brown (Outlook: Slight-Lean GOP)
March 31st: Rob Bell v. ??? (Outlook: Likely GOP)
March 31st: Phil Hamilton v. ??? (Outlook: Likely GOP)
April 1st: Tim Hugo v. Morris Meyer v. Rex Simmons (Outlook: Likely GOP)
April 1st: Watkins Abbitt v. Connie Brennan (Outlook: Leans GOP)
April 2nd: Bob Purkey v. Bob Maciver (Outlook: Likely GOP)
April 3rd: ??? v. Eric Ferguson (Outlook: Slight-Lean GOP)
April 4th: Dave Albo v. Kate Wilder (Outlook: Likely Republican)
April 5th: Leo Wardrup v. Joe Bouchard (Outlook: Likely Republican)
April 6th: Anne Crockett-Stark v. ??? (Outlook: Likely Republican)
April 7th: Faisal Gill v. Julie Lucas v. ??? (Outlook: Slight-Lean GOP)
April 8th: ??? v. ??? (Open Robert Hurt seat)(Outlook: Likely Republican)