Not Larry Hussein Sabato

93rd House District

Outlook: Likely Republican

Phil Hamilton's 93rd district is based overwhelmingly in the Democratic City of Newport News.  While Hamilton does not have the overwhelmingly Democratic precincts (which go to Delegate Mamie Bacote) he does have a fairly solid Democratic district.  In fact, the numbers here are very similar to the district I live in here in south-central Fairfax, with tiny GOP victories for President and the Marriage Amendment, but much larger Democratic victories in the other elections.

In the Presidential election, George W. Bush squeaked out a 12,853-12,597 vote victory in this district. That margin was thanks the the only two precincts in this district not in Newport News- but instead in James City County where Bush won 2,243-1,489.  Kerry won the Newport News side by a 11,108-10,610 count.

In the Governor's election Tim Kaine romped here by a count of 7,644-5,599.  With the James City County precincts voting 1,266-1,230 the entire margin came out of Newport News- a count of 6,378-4,369.

George Allen won the James City County precincts 1,634-1,429 but was swamped in the Newport News precincts by a 7,826-6,021 count. Downballot the marriage amendment did much better overall but the results were interesting.  The James City County precincts that were much more GOP upballot voted "No" by a count of 1,450-1,587, while the more Democratic Newport News precincts voted "Yes" by a count of 7,676-6,231. 

The Democratic performance of this district is what keeps Hamilton from being safe, but he is a very strong incumbent.  It will be interesting to see if the Democrats even field a candidate to take on this challenge.

93rd District Results

George W. Bush 12,853 (50.5%)- John Kerry 12,597 (49.5%)
Jerry Kilgore 5,599 (42.3%) - Tim Kaine 7,644 (57.7%)
George Allen 7,655 (45.3%) - Jim Webb 9,255 (54.7%)
Yes on Marriage 9,126 (53.9%) - No on Marriage 7,818 (46.1%)

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March 7th-  Bob Marshall v. Bruce Roemmelt (Outlook:  Likely GOP)
March 8th-  Tom Rust v. Jay Donahue (Outlook:  Likely GOP)
March 9th-  John Welch v. Bobby Mathieson (Outlook:  Leans GOP)
March 10th-  Dave Hunt v. Margi Vanderhye v. Rip Sullivan (Outlook:  Slight-Lean DEM)
March 11th-  Bill Carrico v. Susie Garner (Outlook:  Safe GOP)
March 12th-  Ben Cline v. ??? (Outlook:  Safe GOP)
March 13th-  Joe May v. Marty Martinez (Outlook:  Likely GOP)
March 14th-  Danny Marshall v. Adam Tomer (Outlook:  Leans GOP)
March 19th:  Jeff Frederick v. Chris Brown (Outlook:  Slight-Lean GOP)
March 31st:  Rob Bell v. ??? (Outlook:  Likely GOP)
March 31st:  Phil Hamilton v. ??? (Outlook:  Likely GOP)
April 1st:  Tim Hugo v. Morris Meyer v. Rex Simmons (Outlook:  Likely GOP)
April 1st:  Watkins Abbitt v. Connie Brennan (Outlook:  Leans GOP)
April 2nd:  Bob Purkey v. Bob Maciver (Outlook: Likely GOP)
April 3rd:  ??? v. Eric Ferguson (Outlook:  Slight-Lean GOP)
April 4th:  Dave Albo v. Kate Wilder (Outlook:  Likely Republican)
April 5th:  Leo Wardrup v. Joe Bouchard (Outlook: Likely Republican)
April 6th:  Anne Crockett-Stark v. ??? (Outlook:  Likely Republican)
April 7th:  Faisal Gill v. Julie Lucas v. ??? (Outlook:  Slight-Lean GOP)
April 8th:  ??? v. ??? (Open Robert Hurt seat)(Outlook:  Likely Republican) 

58th House District

Outlook: Likely Republican

(Sorry for running behind on these, I am catching up now)

The 58th district, held by Delegate Rob Bell can be broken into two pieces- Albemarle and everything else. 

Over half of the district vote comes out of Albemarle and from this chunk of the district it appears to be a swing, maybe even Democratic leaning district.  George W. Bush won this part of Albemarle 10,569-9,107 but since then Tim Kaine won it 8,216-5,384, Jim Webb won it 8,962-7,780 and the marriage amendment failed here 7,582-9,112. 

The rest of the district (all of Greene County and parts of Orange and Fluvanna counties) is solid GOP.  George W. Bush won here 10,141-5,679, Jerry Kilgore won 5,554-4,777, George Allen won 7,360-5,074, and the marriage amendment passed 7,369-4,990. 

This split has made Rob Bell very politically strong, with his personal base in Albemarle County combined with the GOP nature of the rest of the district.  It's also a very tough district for Democrats to pick a strong nominee. Leslie Byrne outperformed Creigh Deeds here despite Deeds representing over half this district in the State Senate, and the marriage amendment "No" votes outperformed Jim Webb in this last election.  That seems to indicate that the only way Democrats will have a chance here is to run to the left and attempt to get a strong turnout in Albemarle compared to the other localities.  Simple, but it's harder to do than people think.  That kind of strategy only works in low turnout off year elections, so if Democrats are not successful this year, Bell will be in the House of Delegates until at least the next redistricting.

58th District Results

George W. Bush 20,710 (58.3%)- John Kerry 14,786 (41.7%)
Jerry Kilgore 10,938 (45.7%) - Tim Kaine 12,993 (54.3%)
George Allen 15,140 (51.9%) - Jim Webb 14,036 (48.1%)
Yes on Marriage 14,957 (51.5%) - No on Marriage 14,102 (48.5%)

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March 7th-  Bob Marshall v. Bruce Roemmelt (Outlook:  Likely GOP)
March 8th-  Tom Rust v. Jay Donahue (Outlook:  Likely GOP)
March 9th-  John Welch v. Bobby Mathieson (Outlook:  Leans GOP)
March 10th-  Dave Hunt v. Margi Vanderhye v. Rip Sullivan (Outlook:  Slight-Lean DEM)
March 11th-  Bill Carrico v. Susie Garner (Outlook:  Safe GOP)
March 12th-  Ben Cline v. ??? (Outlook:  Safe GOP)
March 13th-  Joe May v. Marty Martinez (Outlook:  Likely GOP)
March 14th-  Danny Marshall v. Adam Tomer (Outlook:  Leans GOP)
March 19th:  Jeff Frederick v. Chris Brown (Outlook:  Slight-Lean GOP)
March 31st:  Rob Bell v. ??? (Outlook:  Likely GOP)
March 31st:  Phil Hamilton v. ??? (Outlook:  Likely GOP)
April 1st:  Tim Hugo v. Morris Meyer v. Rex Simmons (Outlook:  Likely GOP)
April 1st:  Watkins Abbitt v. Connie Brennan (Outlook:  Leans GOP)
April 2nd:  Bob Purkey v. Bob Maciver (Outlook: Likely GOP)
April 3rd:  ??? v. Eric Ferguson (Outlook:  Slight-Lean GOP)
April 4th:  Dave Albo v. Kate Wilder (Outlook:  Likely Republican)
April 5th:  Leo Wardrup v. Joe Bouchard (Outlook: Likely Republican)
April 6th:  Anne Crockett-Stark v. ??? (Outlook:  Likely Republican)
April 7th:  Faisal Gill v. Julie Lucas v. ??? (Outlook:  Slight-Lean GOP)
April 8th:  ??? v. ??? (Open Robert Hurt seat)(Outlook:  Likely Republican)

I'm Not Running

I wanted to kill this rumor that has been floating around for the last week that I would be running for Fairfax County/City Clerk of the Court in the June primary. It's my fault that the rumor went as far as it did because I was asking people what they thought when they called me about it.

Unfortunately some of the threads we had about the radical lobbying career of David Miller turned into a debate on me instead of on the announced candidate for the seat.

So now, let's get focused back on the issue at hand here. We have a "Democratic" candidate who has never voted in a Democratic primary, accepted 1.6 million dollars to lobby for the Scientologists, including helping them get tax-exempt status like a mainstream church.  That's right- he got a cult tax-free status.

There is still over 10 days to file for this seat.  We are in crunch time here people.  This will hurt the entire ticket.  If you don't understand why- think about the conservative churches.  What's going to get them out to vote in huge numbers in this low turnout election?  Transportation?  Public Schools?  Or a Scientologist Lobbyist on the Democratic ticket?  Even if that only drew a few hundred additional voters in key legislative races- that could tip the balance this year.
 

Will anyone stand up to stop this man from hurting the entire Democratic ticket?  I'm sorry I can't do it- but I have too many other things going on right now to take on a countywide campaign in Fairfax.

More Open Seats

A couple more Republican seats are now open.

In Virginia Beach, Leo Wardrup will not run for re-election.  That makes that district in play- a district that generally leans GOP, but went for Tim Kaine.

Old Outlook:  Likely Republican
New Outlook:  Leans Republican

Meanwhile, Delegate Robert Hurt will seek the open seat of Charlie Hawkins in the State Senate.  That locks the Senate seat in for the GOP- while leaving the House seat open.  While the numbers here favor Republicans, this is a region that will consider local Democratic candidates more than statewide ones.  It will be interesting to see if Dems can take advantage of this.

19th Senate Outlook
Old Outlook:  Likely Republican
New Outlook: Safe Republican

16th House Outlook
Old Outlook:  Safe Republican
New Outlook:  Likely Republican

OPEN SEATS (this is truly stunning- no Democrats)
(UPDATE:  Oops, forgot The Donald!  There is one Dem open seat).
19th Senate- Sen. Hawkins
28th Senate- Sen. Chichester
27th Senate- Sen. Potts
74th House- Del. McEachin
9th House- Del. Dudley
16th House- Del. Hurt
34th House- Del. Callahan
51st House- Del. McQuigg
72nd House- Del. Reid
83rd House- Del. Wardrup

---------------SAFE     LIK    LEAN     TU     LEAN   LIK  SAFE

Western----------15------2-------3-------0--------1---------3------3 
Northern----------2-------5-------2--------0--------3---------3-----11
H. Roads----------8-------2-------2-------0--------1---------1------7
Richmond---------9--------0-------0------1--------0----------0------4
Other--------------7--------1-------0-------0--------1----------0-------3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------41-------10------7--------1--------6---------7-------28

The Fitz Responds

Bob Fitzsimmonds responds to Chuck Colgan's announcement:

Senator Colgan announced today that he is running for a 9^th term. While most incumbents cruise to re-nomination, Colgan faces discontent in his own party and a potential primary challenge from fellow Democrats. Assuming he is able to win the Democratic nomination, he appears ready to run on his record. I look forward to the opportunity to contrast my plans for the future with Senator Colgan’s failed record of higher taxes and runaway development. 

 While he is quick to cite his 30 plus years in office and list his important positions, Colgan is completely silent on transportation solutions and on growth controls. This is consistent with his record and among the reasons I believe we need new representation in Richmond.  Senator Colgan notes that he has been a budget conferee for 16 years and a member of Senate Finance for even longer. What he does not explain is why in all that time, he has allowed our transportation crisis to grow completely out of hand. He, in fact, does not think that the transportation crisis is even worthy of mention in his press release. 

 Nor does Senator Colgan mention his consistent drum beat for higher and higher taxes. Today, while the rest of the General Assembly is working out a compromise that does not include a statewide tax increase, Senator Colgan continues to demand that taxes go up to fund any solution for Northern Virginia. This is in spite of a doubling of the cost of government in the last decade, a current budget surplus, and the recent record increase in Virginia’s taxes. While others are working to adjust the unfair funding formulas, that leave the 29^th District chronically underfunded, Senator Colgan has declared that he “would be ashamed to ask for one more penny.”

 The citizens of the 29^th District are desperate for controls on growth, but Senator Colgan has contributed to this crisis by opposing common sense restraints on residential development.

 Senator Colgan may believe that he deserves another chance to fix the growing transportation nightmare that we face every day in this district, but I believe that 32 years is enough. With all due respect to this fine gentleman, it is time for new, fresh leadership for the 29^th District and I look forward to providing that leadership as part of a Republican majority in the Virginia State Senate. 

COLGAN RUNS

With three potential pickup campaigns in very close position with the GOP (Davis-Petersen (Toss Up); ???-Pollard (Slight-Lean GOP); Cuccinelli-Oleszek (Slight-Lean GOP) Democrats are waiting to hear what Senator Chuck Colgan will do.  Colgan represents a fast growing, GOP district that would Lean-GOP pickup if he retires.

Should he run, he will begin the campaign as the favorite and Democrats will have a serious chance to draw 20-20 in the Senate with their top 3 challengers, with another two challenges to Rerras and O'Brien as possible races that could move into the top tier and tip the Senate to the Democrats.  A 20-20 Senate by precedent would mean evenly divided committees where either party could kill any bill, and GOP floor control for two years, with the second two years determined by party control of the Lt. Governorship in 2009.

UPDATE:

COLGAN WILL SEEK 9^TH TERM

State Senator Charles J. Colgan, D. Prince William County announced that he will seek the Democratic Party nomination in June and seek his 9^th term as a member of the Virginia State Senate. Colgan was first elected to the Senate in 1975 and took office on January 8, 1976. Prior to serving the Senate he served four years on the Prince William County Board of Supervisors representing the Gainesville District, one year as Chairman of the Board.

Colgan is the senior member of the Senate and serves on the Senate Finance Committee, Committee on Commerce and Labor, General Laws and Technology Committee, Rules Committee and is a member of the Senate and House Joint Rules Committee.

The Republican Party presently controls the Senate by a margin of 23 Republicans and 17 Democrats. Should the Democrats succeed in picking up 4 seats in the 2007 November election, Colgan would become Chairman of the very powerful Senate Finance Committee and become President Pro-Tempore of the Senate.

Colgan has served on the budget Conference Committee for 16 years and has succeeded in diverting millions of dollars into his District and Northern Virginia. The presence of George Mason University in Prince William County is due in no small measure of Colgan’s efforts to acquire funds to construct the George Mason University buildings. His effort also resulted in an additional building at the Northern Virginia Community College in Manassas and Woodbridge and during the 2007 session of the General Assembly his amendment to build a third building at the Manassas Campus was approved.

Colgan has consistently been named one of Virginia’s most effective legislators by the Virginia Foundation for Research and Economic Education, Inc.,which does an annual poll of more than 500 lobbyist in Richmond.

Colgan’s wife Agnes passed away in January 2001, and they are the parents of eight children, twenty-three grandchildren and seven great-grandchildren.

Colgan will be honored by the Northern Virginia Community College graduation ceremony on May 14 with the presentation of the Gold Medilor the highest award which the college can bestow on a citizen. Earlier this year, Colgan and Delegate Vince Callahan, Chairman of the House of Delegates Appropriation Committee were honored by George Mason University with similar awards.

Colgan and his family organized and built Colgan Air, Inc., a Regional Airline at the Manassas Regional Airport. The company was sold recently to Pinnacle Airlines of Memphis, Tennessee. However, the Colgan family will continue to operate the airline.

In 1980, Colgan became the 17^th member inducted into the Virginia Aviation Hall of Fame.

Smoking in Restaurants

Wednesday on the blogger conference call I got a chance to ask Governor Tim Kaine about his proposed smoking ban in restaurants, and whether he thought it would pass the General Assembly next week.

He described the vote coming up in the House of Delegates as "tight". 

In my estimation this is the most encouraging move in Virginia that I have seen since becoming politically active.  It's bold- it's supported by the citizens, and the Governor has crafted this in a way that we will get a full vote in the House of Delegates.

This is a very dangerous vote for Republicans who may vote it down.  Because it is unlikely to get out of committee in the future- anyone who votes "No" will be saddled with that vote for years.  I will go out on a limb and predict anyone with a "No" vote on this issue will not be elected statewide (this issue polls very well statewide), and if Northern Virginia Republicans vote against this, it may very well cost them their seats this year.

This is the issue to watch on Wednesday.  If there is anything I can do to help the cause, I hope someone will let me know.  Anyone working on this issue can contact me on my AIM screen name I have had since middle school (nonsmokr79).

Bob Marshall has 5 Questions

This is what Bob Marshall just asked Bob McDonnell in a letter.  Very interesting!

1. Are the taxes and fees imposed in HB 3202 (or the Governor’s substitute) that apply to

Northern Virginia

and/or Hampton Roads local, state or regional taxes?

2. Please specify the constitutional authority for the governing bodies of 7 of 12 localities in Hampton Roads to impose the taxes and fees purported to be authorized in either HB 3202 or the substitute on all of the localities comprising the so-called Hampton Roads Transportation Authority?;

3. What is the constitutional authority of the six chief elected officials of

Northern Virginia

localities comprising the so-called Northern Virginia Transportation Authority to impose the taxes and fees authorized in Governor Kaine’s Substitute for HB 3202 throughout the jurisdictions comprising Planning District 8?

4. Why are there no provisions for regional voter approval for the Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads Transportation Authorities in the Substitute for HB 3202 since the powers of regional territorial governments, ie., the authority to impose fees and taxes, not merely collect them, and other powers are purportedly conferred on both the Authorities as political subdivisions of the Commonwealth since this make these two Authorities de facto regional governments in violation of the VA Const. Art, VII, Sect. 1? 

5. Further, since the VA Constitution (Art. VII, Sect. 2,

Para

. 3) states that regional governments must be approved by a majority of voters in each jurisdiction participating in the regional government, how can the Governor’s Substitute providing that 6 of 9 representatives of No VA jurisdictions, or 7 of 12 governing bodies of localities in Hampton Roads possibly satisfy this provision of the Virginia Constitution which requires voter referenda? 

Gerry Connolly Liveblog

Go here at 5:15 to participate.

Eric Ferguson Kick Off Today

I'm headed down to Rocky Mount today to see the kickoff for Eric Ferguson, running for the open seat now held by Allen Dudley.  I've got about 10 kickoffs I have attended in the last couple weeks I need to cover, so watch for writeups coming up soon!

If anyone is interested in attending and saying hello- the kickoff is at 4 p.m.- get more details here.