Outlook: Likely Republican
(Sorry for running behind on these, I am catching up now)
The 58th district, held by Delegate Rob Bell can be broken into two pieces- Albemarle and everything else.
Over half of the district vote comes out of Albemarle and from this chunk of the district it appears to be a swing, maybe even Democratic leaning district. George W. Bush won this part of Albemarle 10,569-9,107 but since then Tim Kaine won it 8,216-5,384, Jim Webb won it 8,962-7,780 and the marriage amendment failed here 7,582-9,112.
The rest of the district (all of Greene County and parts of Orange and Fluvanna counties) is solid GOP. George W. Bush won here 10,141-5,679, Jerry Kilgore won 5,554-4,777, George Allen won 7,360-5,074, and the marriage amendment passed 7,369-4,990.
This split has made Rob Bell very politically strong, with his personal base in Albemarle County combined with the GOP nature of the rest of the district. It's also a very tough district for Democrats to pick a strong nominee. Leslie Byrne outperformed Creigh Deeds here despite Deeds representing over half this district in the State Senate, and the marriage amendment "No" votes outperformed Jim Webb in this last election. That seems to indicate that the only way Democrats will have a chance here is to run to the left and attempt to get a strong turnout in Albemarle compared to the other localities. Simple, but it's harder to do than people think. That kind of strategy only works in low turnout off year elections, so if Democrats are not successful this year, Bell will be in the House of Delegates until at least the next redistricting.
58th District Results
George W. Bush 20,710 (58.3%)- John Kerry 14,786 (41.7%)
Jerry Kilgore 10,938 (45.7%) - Tim Kaine 12,993 (54.3%)
George Allen 15,140 (51.9%) - Jim Webb 14,036 (48.1%)
Yes on Marriage 14,957 (51.5%) - No on Marriage 14,102 (48.5%)
March 7th- Bob Marshall v. Bruce Roemmelt (Outlook: Likely GOP)
March 8th- Tom Rust v. Jay Donahue (Outlook: Likely GOP)
March 9th- John Welch v. Bobby Mathieson (Outlook: Leans GOP)
March 10th- Dave Hunt v. Margi Vanderhye v. Rip Sullivan (Outlook: Slight-Lean DEM)
March 11th- Bill Carrico v. Susie Garner (Outlook: Safe GOP)
March 12th- Ben Cline v. ??? (Outlook: Safe GOP)
March 13th- Joe May v. Marty Martinez (Outlook: Likely GOP)
March 14th- Danny Marshall v. Adam Tomer (Outlook: Leans GOP)
March 19th: Jeff Frederick v. Chris Brown (Outlook: Slight-Lean GOP)
March 31st: Rob Bell v. ??? (Outlook: Likely GOP)
March 31st: Phil Hamilton v. ??? (Outlook: Likely GOP)
April 1st: Tim Hugo v. Morris Meyer v. Rex Simmons (Outlook: Likely GOP)
April 1st: Watkins Abbitt v. Connie Brennan (Outlook: Leans GOP)
April 2nd: Bob Purkey v. Bob Maciver (Outlook: Likely GOP)
April 3rd: ??? v. Eric Ferguson (Outlook: Slight-Lean GOP)
April 4th: Dave Albo v. Kate Wilder (Outlook: Likely Republican)
April 5th: Leo Wardrup v. Joe Bouchard (Outlook: Likely Republican)
April 6th: Anne Crockett-Stark v. ??? (Outlook: Likely Republican)
April 7th: Faisal Gill v. Julie Lucas v. ??? (Outlook: Slight-Lean GOP)
April 8th: ??? v. ??? (Open Robert Hurt seat)(Outlook: Likely Republican)