58th House District

Outlook: Likely Republican

(Sorry for running behind on these, I am catching up now)

The 58th district, held by Delegate Rob Bell can be broken into two pieces- Albemarle and everything else. 

Over half of the district vote comes out of Albemarle and from this chunk of the district it appears to be a swing, maybe even Democratic leaning district.  George W. Bush won this part of Albemarle 10,569-9,107 but since then Tim Kaine won it 8,216-5,384, Jim Webb won it 8,962-7,780 and the marriage amendment failed here 7,582-9,112. 

The rest of the district (all of Greene County and parts of Orange and Fluvanna counties) is solid GOP.  George W. Bush won here 10,141-5,679, Jerry Kilgore won 5,554-4,777, George Allen won 7,360-5,074, and the marriage amendment passed 7,369-4,990. 

This split has made Rob Bell very politically strong, with his personal base in Albemarle County combined with the GOP nature of the rest of the district.  It's also a very tough district for Democrats to pick a strong nominee. Leslie Byrne outperformed Creigh Deeds here despite Deeds representing over half this district in the State Senate, and the marriage amendment "No" votes outperformed Jim Webb in this last election.  That seems to indicate that the only way Democrats will have a chance here is to run to the left and attempt to get a strong turnout in Albemarle compared to the other localities.  Simple, but it's harder to do than people think.  That kind of strategy only works in low turnout off year elections, so if Democrats are not successful this year, Bell will be in the House of Delegates until at least the next redistricting.

58th District Results

George W. Bush 20,710 (58.3%)- John Kerry 14,786 (41.7%)
Jerry Kilgore 10,938 (45.7%) - Tim Kaine 12,993 (54.3%)
George Allen 15,140 (51.9%) - Jim Webb 14,036 (48.1%)
Yes on Marriage 14,957 (51.5%) - No on Marriage 14,102 (48.5%)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
March 7th-  Bob Marshall v. Bruce Roemmelt (Outlook:  Likely GOP)
March 8th-  Tom Rust v. Jay Donahue (Outlook:  Likely GOP)
March 9th-  John Welch v. Bobby Mathieson (Outlook:  Leans GOP)
March 10th-  Dave Hunt v. Margi Vanderhye v. Rip Sullivan (Outlook:  Slight-Lean DEM)
March 11th-  Bill Carrico v. Susie Garner (Outlook:  Safe GOP)
March 12th-  Ben Cline v. ??? (Outlook:  Safe GOP)
March 13th-  Joe May v. Marty Martinez (Outlook:  Likely GOP)
March 14th-  Danny Marshall v. Adam Tomer (Outlook:  Leans GOP)
March 19th:  Jeff Frederick v. Chris Brown (Outlook:  Slight-Lean GOP)
March 31st:  Rob Bell v. ??? (Outlook:  Likely GOP)
March 31st:  Phil Hamilton v. ??? (Outlook:  Likely GOP)
April 1st:  Tim Hugo v. Morris Meyer v. Rex Simmons (Outlook:  Likely GOP)
April 1st:  Watkins Abbitt v. Connie Brennan (Outlook:  Leans GOP)
April 2nd:  Bob Purkey v. Bob Maciver (Outlook: Likely GOP)
April 3rd:  ??? v. Eric Ferguson (Outlook:  Slight-Lean GOP)
April 4th:  Dave Albo v. Kate Wilder (Outlook:  Likely Republican)
April 5th:  Leo Wardrup v. Joe Bouchard (Outlook: Likely Republican)
April 6th:  Anne Crockett-Stark v. ??? (Outlook:  Likely Republican)
April 7th:  Faisal Gill v. Julie Lucas v. ??? (Outlook:  Slight-Lean GOP)
April 8th:  ??? v. ??? (Open Robert Hurt seat)(Outlook:  Likely Republican)

Comments

It's a total mystery to me why the Albemarle Dems can't roust up a strong challenger (heck, ANY challenger) to Rob Bell. This IS a winnable district, people... Letting Bell take a pass just encourages his statewide ambitions and lets him know that it's OK to take extreme positions on social and fiscal issues without any consequences.

Plus, Rob Bell seems like such a creepy nerd... or is it just me?

Well-put! "Creepy nerd" is EXACTLY what comes to my mind too.

Whatever you might say against Rob Bell, and God knows you could and should say allot, he is at least not Keith Drake, the current Albemarle GOP Chair...Bell likes woman his own age, and doesn't (to my knowledge) scavenge UVa CR's for a date- yes Keith, you are not fooling anyone!

Rob Bell may be creepy, but Keith Drake gives me the absolute shivers. I heard him go ballistic on a radio show once and I believe I literally heard froth come out of his mouth.

Amber Capron for the 58th!!!

One of Rob Bell's key pieces of legislation- the anti-school bully law... guess who got his head stuck in more than one toilet when he was a kid!

[UVA08]

You know I was completely astonished by his complete lack of advocacy for his district in the transportation debate. Hillsville can get a bypass but could 29 get a third lane on each side between North Fork and Ruckersville? Could 250 get a second lane in each direction linking Pantops to the rapidly expanding suburbs in Louisa and Fluvanna? Apparently not. What's the point of having someone in the majority party if they arent doing anything for you? Oh I'm sorry. We have gotten tons of bullying and other repetitive and easy hot button issue bills out of him. Thank god they shoved my part of the county into the 57th.

[UVA08]

You know I just went through the list of bills he presented and not all of them fall into the categories I mentioned. There were quite a few substantive ones there.

[notroberthurt]

Don't kid yourselves. Say whatever you want to about Bell, but the guy works hard and cares a lot about public policy. When I was in law school at U.Va. I was always impressed by his thorough nature in explaining policy and actually listening to constituents.

I know it will be unpopular on this blog, but I see him as akin to a Chap Petersen in the GOP. A guy who loves Virginia and sincerely tries to make good public policy decisions for the Commonwealth.

If Virginia had more legislators like Chap and Bell, rather than pure politicians, then the policy and laws that come out of the Assembly would serve us much better.

[UVA08]

notroberthurt.... What legislation has he put through that provides tangible benefits for the area? This is a serious question. Deeds put through one that made sure our transportation funds werent docked for the extra lane on Emmett that the Albemarle Place center is paying for and Toscano has a low income housing bill he put in. I am really curious what Bell has done other than resolutions commerating a high school team.

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This is a prime takeover opportunity. Allen was a homeboy; the Kaine vote shows the district's true colors. I'm unimpressed by the Dem recruitment operation in the House.

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