28th Senate Update

One of the most interesting Senate races this year is in the 28th Senate district currently held by John Chichester.

Conservatives rejoiced when Chichester retired and they recruited local GOP activist John Van Hoy into the race.  Van Hoy got heavyweight backing from Bill Bolling and Jim Gilmore.

But locals did not rally behind Van Hoy, in fact I could not find a single current GOP elected official in this district that endorsed him.  In Stafford almost all the endorsements went to Jon Myers, a young marine from Stafford.  In addition a third Stafford conservative who lost a Board of Supervisors election recently jumped into the race named Joe Graziano.

After conservatives blocked an open primary from taking place on June 12th, the only Democrat with a chance of winning here, former Delegate Albert Pollard got into the race.

Then this week Richard Stuart, a former Commonwealth's Attorney from the Northern Neck announced his candidacy.  He was immediately endorsed by Chichester and Speaker Bill Howell.  Because of the GOP bent of both Stafford and the Northern Neck (NN) it is widely assumed that any Republican who can keep the NN close will win because Stafford will put them over the top.   I think that's a reasonable assumption and why Howell endorsed Stuart as the State Senate is vulnerable to Democratic takeover this year, and this is the last election before redistricting.  A Pollard win would lead to a lot more conservative Republicans potentially being ousted during redistricting so Howell is focused on that and not Stuart's credentials.

However Stuart immediately hit potholes, having been a contributer to Pollard when he was the Delegate, and for buying tickets to attend Mark Warner's inaugural ball.  One local Republican announced an "investigation" of Stuart and his eligibility for the nomination, but since he works for a consulting company linked to another GOP candidate, I wouldn't take his allegation seriously.

Any GOP nominee has a chance here because of the bent of the district, but this wild battle is getting very personal and leaving an already vulnerable seat in more trouble.  I'll have more on the specifics and some of the emails being exchanged among Republicans and CC'd to the press here soon.

Comments

Van Hoy can raise money and put together an active campiagn. The rest are basically your typical window-dressing-type candidates.

[Not Larry Sabato]

That was my first thought also- but the lack of local elected support seems to indicate a problem for him

[Mad Hatter]

Maybe a little difficult, but Van Hoy is our best bet for a solid conservative in the position.

My biggest concern about Stuart? Chichester endorsed him.

NLS - The lack of local elected support does matter. However, many conservatives have won without local elected support. They build organizations of "true believers" that elected officals look down upon. Then they win.

Rerras, Bob Marshall, Cuccinelli, Frederick and many others (it's late to think of others - but I bet you can name several more) won without elected support. This is the way they do things. While elected officials are at some worthless ribbon-cutting, the conservatives are builiding organizations.

Van Hoy has/can do the same.

[Kelly]

VanHoy is a nice guy. But the reason he didn't get any of the Stafford endorsements is that he doesn't have any strong leadership traits AND he aligned himself with a group of Republicans (the same ones who were behind the Rothfeld disaster) who have been unsuccessful in the past at getting their candidate elected.

I didn't know who I was going to vote for when this whole election kicked off. I am a Stafford resident, and was actually disheartened when there was talk of this being a convention. That's when things started to get interesting, and I think that's when Jon Myers was first taken seriously. At the time, the other two candidates (VanHoy and Grazziano) were pushing for a convention. Myers was the only candidate who actively fought to allow Republicans like me to vote for the Republican nominee. That says a lot.

I was at the meeting where the Stafford GOP adopted the canvass process. Jon impressed me then with his willingness to fight for the most democratic process possible, and he impresses me now with his candid answers to tough questions. I'm looking forward to the candidate forum in Stafford County later in the month. I think I heard it was going to be on May 15, but I don't know where.

My vote is definitely going to Jon Myers. No one else holds a candle to him.

Your characterization of Jon Myers is a little off. While no one would be offended by being called a "young marine", there is more to him then that.

He's a Marine office - combat veteran with a bronze star. He served in the Marine Corps for over 10 years and remains a Major in the USMCR.

He has worked for the State department and currently is a national intelligence consultant. He has written plans that have been adopted by the Dept. of Homeland Security as well as the Dept. of State.

He has more experience in issues that matter then any of the rest of the candidates combined.

And by the way he's actually older than Graziano - who I've never seen characterized as a young soldier.

[Not Bill Howell]

Van Hoy does not have support from Stafford's 3 GOP supervisors because he has managed to bet against all of them in primaries. On the school board, Chair Robert Belman has often come up against Van Hoy in party intramurals, and Belman programs the other two GOPers (Phillips and Kidby).

So JVH has far more support among activists in Stafford than his elected official endorsements suggest (he was county party chair for 12 years). That is organizational support that extends across the district, due to his high-level party service and the support of district chair Moulton.
He has by far the most widespread organizational support of any candidate, which will be critical in a firehouse primary.

Myers' anti-convention activities were motivated by self-interest, not because he is some crusader for democracy. Van Hoy would have been a lock in a convention. I don't see what his foreign policy credentials have to do with being a state senator. He has not been active in local issues and is an unknown outside the county committee.

Chichester and Howell's endorsing of Stuart won't mean that much unless they put a lot of money behind it. A JC-backed guy from the NN polled a grand 4% in the 2000 1st District congressional primary. But the split vote in Stafford and the fact he is the only mod in the race will be a big help.

Graziano doesn't have the skills, contacts or resources to be competitive.

This is a Stuart vs. Van Hoy race, with the former having a slight edge.

[novamiddleman]

Look at the poll results

Its close to 70% Pollard

Which means NLS is at least 70-30 Dem-Republican

[Not Larry Sabato]

The vote is not for who people support, but who they think will win.

[Semper Fi]

I agree with Kelly on JM.
The reason Van Hoy did not get local elected support is that he has sided with the democrats in the past on issues such as the road bond. despite his past chairmanship of the party, he does not seem to have much organizational support within Stafford either.

this is not a Van Hoy Stuart race---it is anyones. even though it is a primary rather than a convention it still comes down to who can get their supporters out.

[Tired of Spin]

Van Hoy needs a bath, a hair cut and to brush his teeth! He's not fit to be elected to such a high elected position. He is a puppet of the 28th District Chair.

What has he done? NOTHING! Being chairman of the inept Stafford GOP isn’t much of an accomplishment. Can anyone actually name one thing he’s done to benefit the citizens he wants to lead? He is part of the problem - not the solution. The local elected Republicans in Stafford aren't endorsing him because they know how incompetent he is. The rhetoric written that he is the only true conservative in the race is hog wash. Competence counts for something and he doesn’t have it! I might also add integrity.

[Not Bill Howell]

DEAR SEMP:
Authorizing another $6,000 PER HOUSEHOLD in bond debt for stuff like an aquatic stadium is a Republican cause? (HMMM-- judging by the "no-tomorrow" Bush administration, perhaps you're right.) Truth is, of the nine former Stafford supervisors who had served in the previous decade and opposed the bonds, six were Republicans and only two were Dems. The debt service would have required a 26% real estate tax increase (on top of the 11% the BoS just passed without their bond credit card). Van Hoy was in conservative company fighting the spendthrifts on the Board who think they're playing with Monopoly money. Judging by his support, Myers would make Stuart look like a miser in Richmond.

[Not Not Bill Howell]

Dear Not Bill Howell,

Your number wreak of democrat spin. The Road bond would have had no such results to the the tax rate. Our neighbors in Spotsy passed one two years ago overwhelmingly and they have not raised taxes. There were about 10 road bonds from southern MD to NOVA and they all passed by huge margins. The Stafford one failed by only 1% of the 30,000 votes. Has-been supervisors who CAUSED The problems were covering their tracks, not lobbying for conservative spending. But the new supervisors didn't have a clear plan or good information distribution to justify the costs they asked for. Still, 49% voted for it to get 'something' done. VanHoy panders to anyone he's in the room with and features and promotes at least as many democrats on his little tv show as republicans. He's been here his WHOLE LIFE and don NOTHING to improve the county/region at all. This is a two-way race between Graziano and Myers. Two up-an-comers with PROVEN leadership skills, not BACK-ROOM 'connections' with sheisters. Between those two- I feel Myers is clearly the better candidate. I wouldn't put a lawyer friend of JC's in office that's for sure..... we'd just have another democrat in that case too. GOOD RIDDANCE JOHN CHICHESTER, and now you can take Bill Howell with you to retirement too.

[Tired of Spin]

Dear Not Bill Howell,
Van Hoy stood hand-in-hand with Hilliard, Pash and Beiller in opposition to the Transportation Bond Referendum. I count three former Stafford Supervisors from the extreme left wing of the Democratic Party. The other old guard wouldn’t know the future if it hit them in the face. They created the mess Stafford is in and now oppose any solutions to fix the problems. The ostrich mentality. Most don’t leave their house long enough to know we have a problem. They still see Stafford 20 years ago with 25K residents.

Have you heard just one proposal from Van Hoy to fix the number one issue facing Stafford County – TRANSPORTATION! NO, he’d rather stand with Hilliard, Pash and Beiller. Is that what you call a conservative Republican?

Oh yeah, he opposes abortion and same sex marriage, just like the other candidates, but that doesn’t get me to work any faster or improve my quality of life. I repeat, Van Hoy is part of the problem, not the solution.

[Not Bill Howell]

A few corrections to the last two posts: the road bond lost by over 3%, not 1%. And where was the money to pay the bonds going to come from, if not from the homeowner? The Republicans on the Board just blew all the local gas tax money by tripling the VRE subsidy. And Beiler was a Perotista (elected on the Reform Party ticket) who never voted for a real estate tax increase. (Some ultra left-winger!). He became a Democrat this year to run against Howell, then backed down when the Speaker finally delivered on transportation.

Incidentally, that made the road bond boosters look a little foolish, as they had insisted the state would never come up with significant road cash.

[Tired of Spin]

Dear Not Bill Howell,
Funny how you absolutely ignore the most important question and spin the rest.

Have you heard just one proposal from Van Hoy to fix the number one issue facing Stafford County – TRANSPORTATION?

When are we going to talk about issues and not rhetoric?

Beiler is the worst of the lot! Should have gone to jail for his election shenanigans. He got off easy.

[Dan]

Check out today's Journal Press headline.

www.journalpress.com

Interesting ideas going on in the Northern Neck

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