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Not Not Larry Sabato

Why do I feel like I keep asking the same question over and over this past month.

What's the source?

Gotta disagree - Feder had EVERYTHING going for her in 2006, and she got crushed.

She doesn't stand a chance. Never will she run in a year where the climate was as good as last time.

Good point, 3:48 PM. That 99.8% should be dropped 5% just for that statement alone.

Not Larry Sabato

Wow, my accuracy should drop for saying the election is INTERESTING?

You guys are tough.

Thank you for not posting any pictures.

dsbaf

4:14 -- ouch!

Phil Chroniger

Feder will have to do a lot better than 41% to beat Wolf. Especially when she was supposed to be the one to bring down Wolf.

Why do I think she can't do it? Oh yeah, because as was said earlier, she had everything going for her last year, and she still got crushed.

Anyone else sniffing around for the dems, or is it too early?

"Feder will have to do a lot better than 41% to beat Wolf"

Yeah, about 10 points better in fact.

Anyway, I know Kaine won the 10th (off-year), but how did Webb do in that CD?

Greg L

OH HAPPY DAY!

Judy Feder was such a wonderful target last season, and I have all sorts of material I didn't get a chance to use. Now it's not going to go to waste. I am truly overjoyed.

I forget, did she do better than Al Weed? I figure she might have a problem getting the nomination if she was in the tailgunner position last year. I'd hate to see her not make it to the general election.

Of course, after Socas, I didn't think they could come up with worse candidates in the 10th CD. I was wrong. If Feder doesn't end up running, I imagine they could do something like get Faisal Gill to move into the 10th and have him run as a Democrat, or something. How about William Day? Would he get the nod over Feder? His website at http://www.voteday.org makes him look about right for this race...

brimur

I'd like to see somebody new run for that one. I have to agree that she had a lot going for her and couldn't pull it off, or even make it close.

asmith

Webb did win the 10th, but I think the other commenters are right that Feder had the best climate, and raised the money to win, but still lost handily. Need to find someone else to run in that district.

gold_h2o

Feder didn't lose because she ran a bad campaign, etc.....she lost because Wolf is well liked in the district.

It would take a major screw-up on his part to change that. Until he retires he's going to keep winning.

Dem's need to realize that and move on for the time being.

I live in the 10th district and many people were of the opinion that if it ain't broke don't fix it.

Not John S. Mosby

Wolf lost, what, 2 or 3 elections before finnally riding Reagan's coattails in in 1980?

I think it's great that Feder is running again. The 10th is changing and after the next redistricting say goodbye to Winchester and the other Valley precincts. The 10th will be all Fairfax/Loudoun/PWC and Wolf is getting up there in age. He has a couple more campaings in him but I would not be surprised if the 2010 campaign is his last one.

Does that mean that Judy (or another Democrat) should plan on waging a couple of losing campaigns in 08 and 10 and wait for redistricting and/or Wolf retiring? Well, it's not the worse strategy. Someone needs to run each time and I think it's good that she's in it for the long haul. She'll build on the 41% she has and go from there.

As I've said before, Socas ran just a lousy campaign in 2004. I remember at the Sheraton on election night he wouldn't come down to speak to the crowd, he hung out and then left out the side door. Spoiled rich guy, spent his money and didn't get his prize so off he went, never to be seen again.

Judy has some good ideas, is a smart woman, is personable and is tenacious. And she's an FOB/H (Friend of Bill/Hillary) so she has some deep pockets to pull dollars from. I'm glad she's not going away.

Not John,

If the GA stays republican I do believe they will shore up the 10th through redistricting yo protect if after Wolf retires.

As for Feder, she has no chance unless the General Assembly becomes all democrat and it is re-districted completely.


Wolfs BIGGEST challenge in 08 could come from the right.

Loudoun Insider

Unfortunately 7:44 is probably right. The LCRC wingnuts and those in the other 10th District areas can't stand Frank Wolf and think he's a liberal. It's absolutely ridiculous of course, but that won't stop them from making a big deal about him.

GOPHokie

7:44, they cant do but so much with the 10th in redistricting if we still believe Loudoun and PWC are trending/are democratic.

NoVAConservative

Historically, after a tidal wave election, the pendelum starts to swing back. In 1996, the GOP hoped to take out a few remaining weak Dems who barely squeaked by in '94. In almost every case--even cases where it was a re-match, the Dem won with a larger margin.

The Dems best shot at this district was '06. Bad year for the GOP, Allen ran, uh, under expectations, and there was no Presidential.

Feder's got not shot in '08. Especially with Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket.

And I think the Loudoun GOP faction that doesn't like Frank Wolf will have more important things to worry about than primarying Frank Wolf--like licking their wounds from BoS losses across the county.

NLS, get a clue. Feder is toast. Pelosi is working overtime to make Americans wake up to the huge mistake of 2006...putting the Democrats in the majority...funding the troops by installment…legalizing the illegals…doing NOTHING in the first 100 days…focusing on global warming when global terror is at the doorstep (Ft Dix)…go Dems!!!…you’re making the case to put Republicans back in change better than Republicans can…ain’t life wonderful…Eric Cantor for Speaker…a man of principle

Pete in Williamsburg

Speaking of 2nd tries, Kellam is going to try again in the 2nd. Like Feder, he raised a ton of money, but still got beat. Unlike Feder, though, the local paper (Va Pilot) scorched Kellam for being a lightweight.

"And I think the Loudoun GOP faction that doesn't like Frank Wolf will have more important things to worry about than primarying Frank Wolf"

Good points but
Its not just Loudoun. There are a group of conservatives still smarting from the convention and upset that he has gone liberal.
That's exactly why that particular faction will primary Frank Wolf. Because they are lost/or are losing every seat they run in. They think Wolf is not "pure" enough and has lost his way. They think he has lost some of his steam and his beatable even in a primary because he does not toe the party line. Only time will tell but I think we may very well see a challenge.

eileen

Pete in Williamsburg, I luv you man. If you ever wanna guest blog or something at VB Dems pls give me a shout.

The question then arises... is Kellam any less the perceived lightweight in 2008 than he was in 2006? There is truth to the adage that 3 times is the charm. Look at Poisson's campaign for instance. Albeit it was Patti Morrissey that twice ran against Dick Black and who twice lost to him. But did she wear him down to a point of making our third shot at him a success? Did she indirectly contribute to Poisson's first time out trouncing of the evil darkness that was Dick Black?

Back to the 2nd and the 10th, do we line up Feder and Kellam again, suspecting to some degree that they will fail again, but knowing that they at least ratchet the GOPper down a square peg or two and leaving them all the more vulnerable to that third time is the charm campaign?

Granted, if I followed my own thought patterns here, I'd be running against Del. Terrie Suit in the 81st. Get that first-run monkey off my back so to speak.

Not John S. Mosby

The only way Republicans can shore up the 10th is giving up the 11th or gerrymandering in a fourth district into NoVA.

Between Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, Prince William and Loudoun, that's population for almost exactly 3 congressional districts. So, option one, push the 10th to be Loudoun/PWC (about one complete district with a little extra) and make the 11th 90% Fairfax with a little of Prince William or Loudoun. The 8th remains basically what it is today unless the Dems are in charge, then Hunter Mill gets kicked back to the 11th or 10th and Moran picks up some less-Democratic precincts in Southern Fairfax (basically like the 90's district).

Option two is to split Fairfax into three equal pieces - one third to the 8th, one third with Loudoun to form the 10th, one third with Prince William to form the 11th.

Option three is to move up the 1st or 7th districts to take chunks of Prince William and/or Loudoun - which would probably only end up diluting Republican strength in all districts.

As GOPHokie says, if Loudoun and Prince William are moving a bit more Democratic, with Fairfax close to 60%, that's bad news all around. The Democrats are growing much faster than the Republicans in the fastest-growing area of the state. There's no way to get around the fact that Democrats probably have a net pickup of up to several hundred thousand voters in NOVA, and they all need representation.

At the state level, they will have to move at least 3 Delegate districts and at least 1-2 Senate districts completely into Loudoun/Prince William. The only other alternative is to slide the districts in on the edges and try and really gerrymander the counties up, but again, they're back to either losing a few Delagate and Senate seats or severely diluting the Republican advantage in a larger number of districts. That could be more dangerous, if you have five seats and you give up two to protect three, you're still in good shape. If you water down all five and make them competitive, then you could lose a lot more than the two seats.

Kaine 52 Kilgore 46

9:37 = Diana Cantor

bwana

My curiousity is what Ben means by Feder has "just filed". A look at the FEC reports suggests she filed candidacy papers several months ago. This could mean she's running, or it could mean she is simply keeping her options open-filing the papers does not compel her to run.

Bruce

Worth noting that being a FOB/H will NOT help fundraising this cycle as it will all be going to Hillary.

Last cycle, Hillary's friends supported people that they thoguht might back Hillary in her 08 bid.

In 08 that money will be going to the actual Hillary campaign and related efforts, like the DNC, advocacy groups, and the Richardson campaign.

None will be leftover for a candidate who couldn't win in the biggest Dem year in memory.

UVA08

I think all this hype over someone who lost by 16 points just highlights how disgusting the redistricting process is in Virginia. There is no reason for us to be sitting around here scavenging for close races to watch. The state of Virginia is changing. Allen's lost last year was indeed part of a national wave but it also had a lot to do with the changing demographics of our state's suburban areas and I am not talking just about NOVA. I have said it over and over again: look across the state and take note of the shift in the suburban counties and beach area cities. Henrico, James City, Montgomery, Chesapeake, VA Beach, and Albemarle all highlight this. Then of course you have Fairfax, Loudon, Prince William and to a lesser degree, Stafford all trending blue.

So what's my point in bringing all of this up in this context? I think all of this shows that despite the state changing our delegation at both the state and federal level hasn't. Our last few state-wide elections show that our state is not solidly Republican. Our state is NOT an 8 to 3 Republican state as suggested by our federal delegation. Nor is our our state close to 60% Republican as suggested by our state delegation. However, judging by the past several statewide races during this decade the Commonwealth is likely to be about a 52-48% Republican state (give or take a few points here and there). I am not saying our delegation should mirror this exactly but there is no reason for my district to be the size of New Jersey and stretch from NC boarder all the way to Greene Co. There is no reason for 11th to look the way it does. There is no reason for the the 3rd Congressional District to be so blatantly racially gerrymandered. And let's not get started on state districts. Anyone ever take a look at the 25th Senate District??

You know what? I take all that back. There is a reason this: a selfish political game where our legislators value their seats more than they value the will of the electorate.

asmith

UVAo8 you're on to something. If the GOP ran more Tom Davis type Republicans they could stem part of the tide that's been against them in the suburban counties. A moderate Dem can now win those areas except for Stafford, but we'll see what Pollard does there.

Pete, I've heard Kellam is looking at a run in the 2nd district, but he's also looking at running for Mayor of Virginia Beach if Meyera Oberndorff retires.

James Young

Yeah, Ben, it might be interesting.

Too bad she's a loon.

novamiddleman

Just remember both sides do it

For a prime example look at Maryland the situation is the reverse of Virginia

State elections are close (Ehrlich vs Omalley, Stelle vs Cardin) but the congressional and state legislative government is overwhelmingly D.

UVA08

That doesn't make it right novamiddleman. Also, I am not sure what your standard for close is but I wouldn't consider a 10 point margin close as was the case in the Maryland Senate race. You must also remember that when it comes to party ID the gap between Dems and Republican is far greater in Maryland than it is in Virginia. In Virginia the gap is something like 3 or 4 points in the Republicans' favor on a given election night but in Maryland it's something like 18 or 19 points in favor of the Democrats. Take a look at the 04 and 06 exit polls to see this.

With that said I do agree with what you are saying. Both sides do engage in this practice but like I said it still doesn't make it right.

UVA08

Republicans*

NotJimWebb

Word on the street is that Feder not going to be the only Democrat running in the 10th.

Retired Military Officer, just ask the GMU Dems President.

dsbaf

"Both sides do engage in this practice but like I said it still doesn't make it right."

But would you be complaining about it if the situation were reversed. Somehow I think you wouldn't be.

UVA08

dsbaf.... I am not understanding your position here. My personal feelings would not make it right. Now that you have brought it up I will say that I would still think the process was wrong and advocate change. Of course there is no way to tell. I am, however, willing to say that if the Democrats gain power they need to change it.

What's funny here is that no one is willing to stand up to defend the current practice. Thus far they only thing I have seen is finger pointing and an avoidance of the core issue.

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