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And if thrown out, the results of the convention change.

James Young

While I have no role in the convention, it would surprise me if those votes were thrown out. Depending upon the mode of voting, they need not necessarily be thrown out. You'll simply need to hold a revote for those precincts, if feasible, with greater attention to the credentials of those voting. I suspect that these must be precincts in which Lucas is strong, since --- if they were precincts in which Gill is strong --- BVBL would be screaming "SCANDAL!"

I must confess that I'm surprised that it is taking this long. I expected to find a result long before now.

The Non-Goracle Oracle

If there are overvotes in a precinct, then there are two possibilities: fraud or incompetence. Either way, those precincts need to be tossed. I don't care who they are for.

There must be some rule experts here. Do the rules tell us what should be done here. In this case, as Young notes, a revote is very plausible, froma logistical stand point -- you know the actual identity of the legitimate electorate. However, the rules of the convention, of the State Party plan, or some other written source of authority might dicate a different result. It would seem unfair not to allow the legitimate votes cast in those preceints, which since there are three of them represent a resonabley substantial amount of the 51st, to be counted.

It does seem like it would be unfair to toss all of the votes in the undervoted precincts. However, at the conventions I have attended, a lot of people vote and then leave without waiting for the results, so they would not be there for a revote.

Ooops, I meant to say over-voted precincts.

The Non-Goracle Oracle

My contacts at the convo tell me only about 50 people are left. So no "revote" is gonna happen. EIther you toss the precincts or you have a new convention, for which there is no time.

You do NOT count an over-voted precinct; PWC aint Chicago.

Is anyone really surprised this has happened?

Frankly, it's utterly predictable.

kaffir

What does Sharia law say about counting the overvotes?

Dannyboy

I'm rooting for Gill. Better shot of a Dem winning if he's the nominee.

Batson D. Belfrey

I would venture to say that RPV would advise that the over-voted precinct(s) should be tossed. Just a hunch.

Not Claude Swanson

If the RPV doesn't, they are fools.

James Young

As I understand it, the Elections Committee determined that, even if the overvotes were treated as Gill votes and tossed, Faisal still would have prevailed. Hence, the overvotes didn't make a difference.

Faisal is the nominee. Lucas should act like an adult, concede, and support the nominee.

James Young

And Dannyboy, your statement is only true if Democrats choose to run a racist campaign. Wouldn't surprise me. Perhaps you can get Jonathan Mark to lead it. He has, after all, blazed the trail.

James:

There is no reason to think the Democratic candidate will run a racist campaign: a clear focus on the issues is all that Paul needs to win. Remember, BVBL and his crew are Republicans.

James:

There is no reason to think the Democratic candidate will run a racist campaign: a clear focus on the issues is all that Paul needs to win. Remember, BVBL and his crew are Republicans.

charles

Hey guys. Don't usually post here, but thought I would this once.

I've read elsewhere that the total overvote was 3, and it was one in each of three precincts.

So, I did up a spreadsheet with the numbers NLS has here (btw, weighting in Betchel is 37).

Then I said, assume that all three overvotes were Gill votes. Further, to maximise the impact, I assumed the three precincts were the three with the largest weighting, which was Kerrydale, Lynn, and Springwoods.

Under this worst-case scenario, Gill would still win 301-292 unweighted, and 206.5583147 to 205.4416853 weighted.

Citizen Tom reported that if you threw out all three precincts, Gill would win, but if you threw out just ONE of the three Lucas would win, which means one of them was one where Gill got a LOT of votes (which also means the removal of one vote wouldn't be meaningful).

BTW, I did several random removals, all of Gill delegates, and most of the time he still had more than 209 of the total.

If someone gives me the names of the precincts, and the number of overvotes in each, I will run the numbers again, but I can't imagine they will come out any different as to the victor.

BVBL-Lite

SCANDAL!!!

Lucas will be supporting the rightful nominee -- herself.

Not John S. Mosby

So, the Republicans have nominated a lobbiest for radical Islamists to be their candidate for a state office. This is a happy day, I'm sure when the general election race starts it will take about 2 days for the Democrats to hammer this moron to oblivion. I don't think much of the PWC Democrats but this one is a slow fastball down the middle with no movement.

UVA08

"And Dannyboy, your statement is only true if Democrats choose to run a racist campaign. Wouldn't surprise me."

That assumes that the reason Dannyboy thinks the race would be easier for the Dems for racial reasons. I am inclined to believe that he (Dannyboy) thinks it will be easier due to his ideology rather than his race.

BTW I wouldn't be commenting on the Democrats running racist campaigns when you had one of your top candidates for president (John McCain) agreeing with Bill O'Reilly when he basically said we have to put a cap on immigration to preserve the "white male power structure" which is ironically something that most conservatives deny exist as they bash affirmative action programs. I guess its existence comes and goes when the argument demands it.

This makes Faisal Gill's Reckless Driving trial on June 21 all the more important.

Will Gill accept responsibility and cut a deal or will be assert that he really wasn't driving 81 MPH?

Will Cuccinelli's partner, Chris Day (Gill's attorney), come in and save the day?!?

Will Cooch and Dave Albo come in and bat their eyelashes at the Judge?!?

More importantly, this will be at least Gill's 4th ticket and we all know what Dave Albo says:

Albo, who will become chairman of the Courts of Justice Committee next year if he defeats Werkheiser, said the number of speeding tickets should give voters pause.

"One or two tickets is not a big deal. I had one or two tickets," Albo said Wednesday. "But the business we're in is writing the rules. The first thing is you need to follow the rules yourself."

The blogging world will be watching with baited breath....

"And Dannyboy, your statement is only true if Democrats choose to run a racist campaign."

Ah, yes...playing the race card. The "republicans" take one right out of the democrat playbook. The "real republicans" will do whatever it takes to win - even cry racism like a democrat.

Not Claude Swanson

It is easier to cry "Racism!" than to explain away providing aid and comfort to the enemy while an officer of the United States.

James Young

BVBL and his "crew" are NOT all Republicans. Jonathan Mark is a Democrat.

James Young,the "repubican", is the one playing the race card - a democrat ploy if I've ever seen one.

James Young,the "republican", is the one playing the race card - a democrat ploy if I've ever seen one.

James Young

Me, "playing the race card"?

What assumptions or stereotypes based upon race/national origin/religion am I attempting to advance or relying upon?

Sorry. That dog won't hunt.

Not Claude Swanson

Your trying to obscure a man's connections to terrorists by claiming every fact-based comment against your favorite is a racist comment. That is how you play the race card. It is a tactic used to change the argument without facing the question.

And even if Gill isn't connected to terrorism (which I doubt), politics is the art of perception, and the electorate will perceive him to be.

Not Claude Swanson

Should've read "You're . . .." Sorry.

Loudoun Insider

James Young has some sort of bizarre love blinders on when it comes to Faisal Gill.

Outsider Looking In

Having read these posts, with all the various analyses and speculated outcomes, I must ask why no one has considered an alternative theory of events...?

For example, it appears that there was little or no ballot security, i.e. there was no confirmation that the person asking/receiving a ballot for a specific precinct was entitled to that precinct's ballot (otherwise how would there be over-votes?).

Soooooo, isn't it POSSIBLE, since only a little over 600 folks registered out of over 1200 filed -- which if split evenly between Gill and Lucas gives each approx. 300, resulting in an approx. 60% turnout for Lucas and 45% for Gill when based on reports of how many each filed -- that Gill supporters obtained and cast ballots in the more heavily weighted precincts to sway the outcome?

NOT saying it DID happen but it appears it COULD'VE happened and as such wouldn't it render the entire process irrevocably tainted?

AWCheney

Ballot security was requested OLI, but was apparently somewhat lacking. It should be noted that the overages were in the most heavily weighted districts...interesting huh?

AWCheney

Of course I meant precincts, not districts.

Freddy

Republicans need to get this thing behind them quickly and get pointed in a positive direction. I have been a friend of Julie’s for a long time. Julie has more than a decent shot at the 36th — certainly a better shot than overturning the results of last Saturday’s convention. Why? For the following reasons:

1. For the first time in 20 years, there is a competitive and ambitious Republican (Chris Royce) running for and open Woodbridge Supervisor seat. He is knocking on a lot of doors for himself and the Republican ticket. (Woodbridge is a majority of the Prince William portion).

2. Jeff Frederick has turned the 31st red - even in a bad GOP year like 2005– and the 31st is a majority of the Prince William portion of the 36th District. He is working it even harder this time and is famous for knocking doors to get out the Republican vote.

3. The Democrats have targeted several Senate and House seats in NOVA. They will not be able to focus resources on the 36th, as they did in 2003. But even then, Braunlick came close to beating Puller.

4. Economically distressed Democratic-leaning portions of the district are either redeveloping and becoming more Republican or are being replaced by non-citizen Hispanic residents.

5. Julie already represents a significant portion of the 36th. She won these precincts in 2003, despite the fact that they leaned Democratic. Since then, her name recognition reputation has improved in those areas.

6. She has a campaign team already in place. Together with Frederick and Royce, a lot of doors will be knocked on to get out the GOP vote.

***

Even if Julie does not win, she sets herself up for the seat if there is a vacancy.

Outsider Looking In

AWCheney: from what i'm hearing "lacking" is a serious under-statement.

Freddy: While i don't necessarily disagree with some of your points on the options available to Lucas, i can't fathom how ANYONE in attendance could actually look someone in the eye and say with a straight face that there was nothing wrong with the process. There are simply too many questions, too many allegations, and apparently too much opportunity for monkey business for it to have been a fair process according to everything i've read and heard.

Regardless of what Lucas decides to do (file an appeal, seek another office, whatever), we must NOT turn a blind eye to a process that was at the very least riddled with irregularities and at worst full of outright corruption. If the process was "fair" as claimed and the Gill people really believe they won fair and square then let the appeals come. What are you/they afraid of? If there's nothing to hide or worry about, the appeal will surely fail. I say: Let the sunshine pour in!!!

I can't imagine that the Gill folks wouldn't want to be vindicated by a failed appeal. Wouldn't that pretty much end all this? Again, if as you assert in your post, nothing was done "wrong" what's the big deal?

On a final note, i checked out the 11th District website and looked up the members of the committee. I recognized several names and know them to intelligent, reasonable people who are frankly far more knowledgable of the process and procedures to deal with an appeal (if one comes... BTW has anyone heard of one yet?) and arrive at the right conclusion. A conclusion based on facts and evidence; right and wrong, not rhetoric and emotion.

Outsider Looking In

Note: the reference to Freddy's post should've noted it was one from the BVBL blog that i saw.

Doug in Mount Vernon

Freddy---you are dreaming man.

Puller is so safe it's indisputable. Besides, Mount Vernon is her district base and we love her up here---she ain't goin' nowhere.

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