100 Days Out Prediction

PARTY CONTROL CHANGES ONLY

Senate of Virginia
Chap Petersen defeats Jeannemarie Davis
John Miller defeats Tricia Stall
Ralph Northam defeats Nick Rerras
NEW SENATE OF VIRGINIA- 20 Republicans, 20 Democrats

House of Delegates
Manoli Loupassi defeats Katherine Waddell
Margi Vanderhye defeats Dave Hunt
Paul Nichols defeats Faisal Gill
Eric Ferguson defeats Charles Poindexter
NEW HOUSE OF DELEGATES- 55 Republicans, 43 Democrats, 2 Independents

Fairfax County Board of Supervisors
 John Foust defeats Joan Dubois 
NEW FAIRFAX COUNTY BOARD- 8 Democrats, 2 Republicans

Prince William County Board of Supervisors
 NO CHANGE- 6 Republicans, 2 Democrats

Loudoun County Board of Supervisors
 Kelly Burk defeats Jim Clem
Susan Buckley defeats Mick Staton
Stevens Miller defeats Steve Snow
NEW LOUDOUN COUNTY BOARD- 4 Democrats, 3 Republicans, 2 Independents

Comments

[Sean Holihan]

Good calls all. I fully agree with the Senate. I'd like to think that Dems take one or two more seats in the House.

Good analysis but I don't see the dems picking up quite as many seats.
I think either Poindexter or Gill will suprise and win their seat in the house and I do think Rerras will definitely win but Cuccinelli or O'Brien may not win.
Stall will be the key race in the Senate with a slight advantage going to the Republicans due to demographics. My prediction is the GOP in the end keeps the senate by 1 or 2 seats.

Stall has absolutely no chance. Dems win one seat in Virginia Beach for the house.

[Grant Colman]

has anyone other than me noticed how chummy Rep. Tom Davis, Republican and Democrat Chairman Gerry Connolly are awfully chummy of late? Did anyone notice the three-some at the Fairfax City Parade? Or at the Springfield Parade before that? Do you think Connolly and Davis cooked some Backroom deal where Connolly won't run against Tom and won't help Chap if Davis doesn't support Gary Baise.

[spgop]

I agree with Chap, but not Stall. I noticed you didn't list Cuccinelli as losing. Interesting...

I also think Fitzsimmons wins a seat.

You must be smoking something with your Loudoun County predictions. Waters is in a three way race that takes her down. Tulloch is the biggest target on the Board, and most likely loses.

Kelly Burk is useless, and Jim Clem got 35% of the vote in a write-in campaign for Mayor of Leesburg when he wasn't even involved in the campaign. He even said he wouldn't leave his Supervisor position and he still got 35% of the vote. No way he loses.

Staton is the safest Republican on the Board. He has a huge money advantage over a candidate who has never run for office. Granted she may be the best candidate the Dems have fielded this season, but she is wasted on a district she can't win.

You may have your blinders on with this race because of the Senate special election, but things have changed a lot in two years.

Delgaudio wins because he is Delgaudio, and that is what he does.

Snow would be a big target to lose his seat, but the Dem is such a snoozer. Snow could win this with a big push and by outworking his opponent.

Right now I don't see Burton and Kurtz as locks either. They have big time issues in their districts that they will have to deal with. Right now I say Kurtz loses, Burton wins.

Final tally, 5 Republicans, 2 Dems, and 2 Indy's.

[Chippenham]

Didn't Loupassi only raise $5,000 last reporting period? This guy spent $250,000 on his Republican primary and only 3,000 people voted. Webb got 47%, Kaine got 53% and the marriage amendment lost here. Doesn't sound like that easy of a pickup for a Republican if a D held the seat, would seem that a well funded I (which it seems Waddell will be) might even have some advantages.

What is your justification here?

[ROVA]

I agree with Chippenham. Waddell is the most independent-minded candidate running in the most independent-minded district in VA and is well-known, well-liked, and well-funded. Loupassi's a good guy, but that district is unlike any other in the state. Name another one that both Kaine and Cantor won.

For my money, Miller is the only possible seat-changer on the Senate list at this time, also.

[Dannyboy]

I think you're right (thus far) on the Senate predictions. I'm really hoping that something happens in one of the other competetive races to give us another flip. Maybe Pollard can pull something off, that would be great. But thus far I think those predictions are pretty solid.

[Henry Ryto]

NLS,

Rerras can drop 10% from 2003 and still take the 6th. With Hank Giffin running hot in the House, Giffin will ensure things don't get out-of-hand in Norfolk.

Anon 7:24,

The only seat the Dems have a shot at in Virginia Beach is the 83rd, but Bouchard hasn't received anticipated state-level help - yet.

For Joe Bouchard to win, he needs to do two things:

1. Get the Deaniac vote.

2. Run a quality GOTV program in the south and west of the district. There are precincts with a plethora of minority voters, but that don't turn out well.

Joe hasn't got the former yet, and only time will tell if he can pull the latter.

[Capt. Obvious]

SPGOP has it mostly right.

Miller does defeat Stall (she is certifiably nuts)

Fitzsimmons will lose, again.

Waters- is the race to watch

Tulloch- goes down ONLY if Wapo article comes out.

Clem- SPGOP is right on, regardless of Clem doing squat between now and Nov, he crushes Burke.

Staton does win, but Jeanne West is best Dem candidate. DelGaudio wins, of course.

Snow- again LPGOP correct- Miller is horrible.

Burton wins, Albright is awful.

Everyone in LC is high on Higgins over Kurtz, but I don't see it happening.

And (someone else forgot) York wins in a landslide over Feritti. I hate acandidate that loans themselves, say $150K, and then repays it in full immediately after it posts on the financial reports. Be in it to win it, with both feet in. This isn't the hokey pokey.

Grant...are you and ScottyWest1 on RK one and the same? If not, both of you appear to be reading far too much into 3 public figures being civil in public.
Not a babe

[FishinginCrisis]

agree by and large, but I can see Connie Brennan beating Watkins Abbitt.

[Loudoun Insider]

Interesting Loudoun thoughts, to say the least!

Brown, Rishell, and Day will pull of upsets in PWC. Pandak also had a great chance against Stewart.

[Not Jack Herrity]

I think you are way off base in Loudoun. Burk is, as another poster put it, totally useless, a perennial retread who always runs and rarely wins. Same goes for Susan Buckley. Mick Staton is definitely a polarizing figure, but so is Susan.

I'm surprised you overlooked the Sterling district. Delgaudio didn't fare that well last time and I think Jeanne West could be his Perfect Storm.

NJH

[Pete in Williamsburg]

Any predictions on Heretick in the Senate or Bouchard, Farlow and Mathieson in the House?

My sad prediction is a loss for all of them.

[Dara Leyden]

It will be nice to have Jeannemarie gone. I'd rather have a conservative D than a RINO any day.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Kelly is a DREAM candidate for the Democrats.

[Sam]

Why Vanderhye over Hunt? She is not that active at all and barely anyone's heard of her here...Sullivan was much better known

[spgop]

Capt. Obvious,

Stall's running in a strong Republican District, so she should win. Her problem will be to get the liberal Republicans to vote for her. That is the same thing that happened to Staton.

Until liberal Republicans get over the idea that they would rather be represented by a Democrat than a Conservative Republican, the party is going to continue to have problems.

The bad news for Dems in Loudoun is that their entire crop of candidates are a bunch of left wing extremists who want to re-fight the 2003 elections. The only Dem that is NOT like that is Phyllis Randall, which is why I think she takes out Lori in a three way race. The fact that Lori Waters appointed her to a Loudoun County Committee is an ironic twist to this race.

I give Higgins a chance to win his race because they literally had to drag Sally out of retirement and dust her off to run because there aren't any other Democrats in the District to do it. Her heart won't be in it.

Tulloch is going to have the toughest time of it, even though his opponent is awful. He is going to be target number one, and he hasn't even bothered to raise any money yet. Don't know what he is doing.

I didn't mention the York/Firetti race because you actually need to have two real candidates to have a race.

NLS, Kelly Burk is not a dream candidate. She is more like a NIGHTMARE. You obviously have never seen her in action, are watched her try to give a speech. It is painful.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Sam, district is good- Margi isn't perfect but she is running an overall good campaign and I think there is going to be a voter revolt against Dubois that will kill any chance Hunt has because of the overlap.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Kelly is an old friend of mine spgop, and I think she is a dream candidate. She's a Loudoun County Teacher, and a town Councilwoman. I can't think of a better resume to get on the Board of Supervisors.

And she isn't the greatest speaker ever, but most women candidates are not. Don't be so sexist.

[spgop]

NLS,

I'm not being sexist. I am being a realist. I have seen good speakers, both men and women, and Kelly is not a good speaker. She has run lots of races and lost all but one. She got on the Town Council by being one of three top vote getters in a crop of weak candidates.

You also forget that this is just a rematch of 2003 when she got beat badly.

Don't be so defensive, NLS. It's ok to want your friend to win, but it is not going to happen.

[Bruce]

How can you use "most women candidates are not" and "Don't be so sexist" in the same post?!?!?

Don't know the woman in questions, but know some very good speakers and some very poor speakers on both sides of the gender divide.

[jt]

I agree John Foust is the best candidate for the Dranesville Supervisor, and he will stomp on Joan DuBois "hands down".