What's About To Happen

Republished from earlier this month:

1)  John Warner will announce his retirement from the U.S. Senate
(Update:  Check)
2)  Tom Davis and Jim Gilmore will both file for the open Senate seat
3)  Mark Warner will file for the Democrats
4)  The state GOP will decide on a convention, Dems will go with a primary
5)  Facing the 10,000 signature hurdle and the Warner name, no other Dem will file and Mark will get the nomination unopposed
6)  Republicans will battle all the way into the convention.
7)  With the field set for the Senate,  Brian Moran, Creigh Deeds, Bob McDonnell and Bill Bolling will all begin their 2009 campaigns for Governor.
8)  Numerous downballot candidates will see the open LG and AG seats and begin running for those in both parties.
9)  George Allen will not run for the Senate and will wait and see how strong McDonnell and Bolling are before deciding on 2009.
10)  Mark Warner will be the slight favorite over Tom Davis or Jim Gilmore in the open Senate seat, but in a Presidential year that race will get very close at the end.  Should either Republican upset Warner, he will jump into the 2009 Governors race to redeem himself.
11) Republicans will select a convention for their 2009 ticket and whether they allow Governor's race losers to run downballot later in the convention (i.e. no filing deadline) will determine a lot of how the downballot looks.
12)  Democrats will select a 2009 statewide primary locking Deeds and Moran into the Governor's race and leaving a very open field downballot.

Comments

[Jim]

Maybe John will go another term....if he was going to retire, why not do it from DC? Just my gut feeling.

I think this is exactly right, except for the fact that I think Allen will throw his hat in the ring for 09 sooner rather than later.

[SummerBreeze]

I think if push comes to shove between Moran and Deeds, that Deeds will step aside and run for LG instead. That way we don't run any risk of losing Moran in the GA.

[Doug]

1) John Warner throws his hat in today to run for President
2)Tom Davis is caught in a Union Station bathroom playing footsie with a man while wearing his JMDD approved angora sweater
3) Mark Warner opens a chain of drive through got milk stands
4) the state GOP will make a new civil war documentary
5) No dem will try to challenge Warner's chain of drive through milk stands
6) Republicans will re-enact both Manassas battles with BVBL organizing all uniforms with superhero buttons
7) The governorship in Virginia will be replaced with a supreme overlord, causing Northern Virginia to finally join Maryland
8) Numerous downballot candidates will look fabulous in the epic civil war battle scenes
9) George Allen will slip on a deer head in the fall and wreck someone's mailbox- he will not be charged in the incident
10) Mark Warner loves milk
11 and 12) the surpreme overlord will abolish both Republican and Democratic parties in Virginia, thus inticing Norther Virginia to rejoin the commonwealth

13. Scarlett Johansson will call me Daddy as I drill her from the rear whilst standing atop the Hollywood sign.

[dems4dems]

When does a moderate ever beat a conservative in a Republican primary or convention in Virginia? It just doesn't happen.

dem4dems,

1996 GOP Primary, Jim Miller vs. John Warner

Probably the only time.

[phriendlyjaime]

WOW 9:13, tell us how you really feel.

[Sam]

I'm back at UVA for law school, so I'll be over at the rotunda at 2... Ben, maybe I'll run into your screen name's namesake? I can't imagine something this big would happen here without to good Dr. Sabato's involvement...

[Pete in Williamsburg]

Ben,

Great rundown as usual. Couple of disagreements:

-- The 10K name requirement hasn't discouraged too many in the past. The fact that M. Warner will be unchallenged for the nomination is not based on the Warner name, it's simply the unified support for him as our state's top Democrat. Sorry to be corny about it.

-- M. Warner will remain a strong, not a slight favorite to win. Republican fundraising for this seat will lag and the NRSC will ignore the race.

-- Deeds will withdraw early enough to keep Moran from spending too much on a primary.

M. Warner will NOT run for senate because (among other reasons);

1. There is not much admiration for our elected federal officials right now so why join that crowd.

2. What achievement is there in being one of a group of one-hundred individuals constanly engaged in bickering, useless "hearings" sniping and gridlock.

3. The senate has not proven to be the best platform to further a political career.

That Said...I would not be surprised to see his name in the next Gov's race.

[bye bye GOP]

I don't understand why anyone would assume that Deeds would step aside for Moran. I am not taking sides in that battle yet. But why would anyone assume that Deeds will step aside?

[Dannyboy]

Pete:
Deeds will withdraw? Please! Creigh is in the Governor's race for the long hall. A lot of people here (and by here I mean the blogs) think WAY too highly of Brian Moran. Don't get me wrong, he's a good guy and a good leader, and I'd support him for LG or AG, but he's not the inevitable candidate for the Governor's nomination by any means. Creigh isn't "backing off" for Moran, Pete. That may be what Moran supporters want to happen, but it won't. Creigh wants that seat just as badly as Brian, if not more so. Unless polls for a primary start coming back along the lines 80-20 Moran, Creigh will give it everything he's got. And I'll be helping him in any way that I can.

[JMU Duke]

There is a definitive NoVa slant in the blogosphere, especially among Democrats, which does account for a lot of the assumption that Moran is the dominant candidate. I will say though, as a Deeds supporter, that he has a lot of ground to make up. Moran has come out great guns and find some way to break into NoVa or turn out some other group downstate.

[Sam]

10:46 - Rumor has it that M. Warner's already told his close associates that he's planning to run. Remember, he wanted to be Senator before he ever wanted to be Governor.

[JMU Duke]

That should read:

"Moran has come out great guns and Creigh must find some way to break into NoVa..."

[asmith]

anon 10:46, you have a point, but he wants to be in the US Senate. Foreign policy has been a big part of his speeches he's given at fundraisers lately. I don't think he wants to be #2 to Hillary or Obama, that will likely go to a Richardson, Bayh, or Vilsack. Plus the Dems will likely pick up seats in the US Senate next year from states like Virginia, NH, and possibly Minnesota and Maine.

[Bwana]

Dannyboy-

"Creigh is in the Governor's race for the long hall"

Spill! Does this refer to a secret race for a lengthy corridor in the statehouse? ;-)

[Dannyboy]

Bwana:
I wish! That’d be totally sweet!

"Long HAUL." My bad. :)

[the poster formerly known as 147.]

11:19,
Don't forget Colorado.

On Creigh v. Moran,
Creigh would seem to have a strong hand given his name recognition from previously running statewide, but could he survive the NOVA onslaught from Moran? I don't know for sure how the numbers would break down, but Moran clearly takes Nova and Creigh does better in the rural areas. Now the race comes down to who performs better in the black communities in the 4th and the 3rd, and can Creigh really take off their with his strong support of the 2nd amendment?

I think Moran just starts in a much stronger position for the primary, but I'm not sure someone who can so easily be caricatured as a Massachusetts liberal can do well enogh in ROVA to win.

[country cousin]

tpfk as 1:47...

I'm thinking of starting a crusade against the term ROVA. Is it really useful to lump everything from Richlands to Richmond and Chilhowie to Chuckatuck together?

Although in this case you're probably right about Moran.

[Hampton Roads dem]

Brian Moran kills Deeds in NOVA. That should be the end of the discussion.

However, Moran also takes Hampton Roads Democrats. He's loved in Norfolk and Virginia Beach. Coming up soon will be the Virginia Beach Dems Elephant Roast. Headliner? Brian Moran.

Moran takes it in a walk. Deeds should step down now before he's embarresed.

[the poster formerly known as 147.]

I'm a lifelong resident of Rova and use the term mostly out of habit, not out of the holier than thou way used in the Post and among the Nova elite.

Anyway, the fact is that outside of a few liberal hotspots (Richmond, Petersburg, Charlottesville, coal counties) the rest of virginia is leans much farther right than Nova. Although I guess I could just use the term downstate.

[FrightenedDeedsSupporter]

OH NO!

Brian is the headliner at the VA. Beach elephant roast!

Whatever is Creigh gonna do to counter that?

OH MY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Pete in Williamsburg]

I'm a huge Creigh Deeds fan, and his slim margin loss was a tragedy. 147 has it right, Northern Virginia money and votes will completely dominate a primary. Creigh has to know that.

I'd really like to see Creigh as the AG. He'd win THAT one in a walk.

[Rowhey]

I agree with the first poster. My gut tells me that Warner is not retiring.

[RealNumbersPlease]

Hey, Pete in Williamsburg.

You sound like a smart guy.

Just for fun, why don't you figure what percentage of the total statewide vote NOVA cast in the 2005 Democratic primary for Lt. Governor. Just to make things easier, let's define NOVA as all the 8th, 10th, and 11th CDs (sorry Frederick County, sometimes you just to be grouped with Arlington and the like).

I mean, with 2 Fairfax candidates ruuning that year, NOVA must have cast what, 70....80% of the vote?

I mean, like you say, NOVA does "dominate", right, dude?

[Edna]

I can't see how VA votes Dem in 2008 simply because MW is Veep (it wouldn't affect my vote at all)! No one votes for Veep. Besides Warner is a fairly conservative guy and Hilary is a NYC liberal. And even if MW makes it to the WH with HRC, she's toxic long term for the Dems and MW will eventually suffer for it..he should run for Gov and keep his powder dry..he's still young.

[phriendlyjaime]

I don't know. I still think he may announce that he will be voting against Bush come September.

Anyone have a link to the coverage?

[Kyle]

Yep..he has retired!

[Jim]

He retired !!! Surprised me !

[Doug]

dang it, I got mine wrong.

[phriendlyjaime]

It's live stream on NBC12.

I am a little surprised. He is the cutest 80 year old ever, btw.

[Rowhey's Gut]

I feel a Chertoff terror alert coming to save us.

[Jim]

Very surprised since he appears very healthy and would have cruised to re-election without much effort on his part.

[asmith]

better check that gut Rowhey.

[Rowhey]

Asmith,
I am surprised. Really am. But, I think in watching the coverage that he is in a happy place in his marriage and family life.

Every chapter comes to an end. Every era comes to comes to an end. And so it goes.

[Pete in Williamsburg]

Real Subtle Please,

I don't know the regional numbers from the 2005 primary numbers. What were they?

[the poster formerly known as 147.]

The 8th, 10th, and 11th cast a little under a third of the primary vote in 05 (About 31%).

What RNP doesn't take into account is the huge turnout in the 3rd and 4th, which combined for about 27% of the vote. That turnout was driven by Viola's name on the ballot. If Viola makes another run at LG then that number will stay high.

But let's then take a look at the 2006 primary: given the numbers are skewed because we had essentially 2 nova candidates, but the 8th, 10th, and 11th combined for nearly 43% of the vote!

If nova exceeds 35% of the primary vote, it will be hard for Deeds to keep pace.

147:

In Politics 101 i was taught to never compare a Federal election turnout to a State office turnout. Very different types of voters between these types of elections.

In Politics 102 I learned that Viola ran an extremely campaign and she did not jack up turnout a bit. If she was a stronger candidate and ran a better campaign she would have wiped up in places like Cheapeake, Hampton, Portsmouth and Newport News. Instead she ran at about the same level as the other candidates. She was so weak, in fact, that the Richmond Crusade for Voters endorsed Bryne over Viola.

Advanced politics: I guess I never took that class. Can you more precisely explain to me how you came up with your 35% figure? I mean, what are your assumptions here as to relative voting preformance throughout the state between the 2 candidates in a head to head match and on what do you basis do you come to these assumptions?

Thank you.

[the poster formerly known as 147.]

329,

Thank you for the keen observation that state and federal elections are indeed different. However, when we're talking about primary voters, it's all party die hards. More may come out for the Senate election, but we're not talking about the disparity we see in the general election in places like Virginia Beach. So I'm comfortable measuring the difference given primary voters

On Viola: she took nearly half the voters in the 3rd and 37% in the 4th: how could you explain that outside of more blacks coming out to vote for her? She did not run as strongly in tidewater but dominated her base of Metro Richmond: 70% in the city, 56% in Petersburg, 60% in Henrico, and 49% in Chesterfield.

The 35% number is largely arbitrary. I'd say it's a fair guess at Nova turnout considering the region's continued growth. I'd say anything north of a third of the voters coming from Nova means trouble for Creigh. Given Moran's recognition in Nova and the fact that Creigh ran behind the ticket in Nova, I'd say a conservative estimate would be Brian winning 60-40.

If that's the case, then Creigh would have to win the remaining 2/3 of the state 56-44. To make the math just a little tougher for Creigh, he ran behind the ticket in the downstate's liberal hotbeds of Richmond, Petersburg, Portsmouth, Hampton, and most embarrassingly Charlottesville - which he represents! He narrowly ran ahead of Leslie in Albermarle but was 1,071 votes behind Kaine - more than 3 times his margin of defeat.

Harp all you want, but it's an uphill battle for Creigh.

[Joshua Grossman]

So who's running for T. Davis' House seat? NLS should do a post on this alone ASAP. I especially would like to know if any Progressive Dems would be running but am interested in hearing about prospective candidates from either party.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Joshua- that will be up this weekend.

Creigh Deeds - Proven vote getter statewide

Brian Moran - Proven vote getter in 1% of the Commonwealth.

But, hey, it is Alexandria so I guess that trumps everything else!

[Grant Colman]

I don't think Rep. Davis can win a convention and Davis isn't Senatorial material...

I think GOP will put up maybe even Ed Gillespie he would be the best candidate for the GOP. As for Warnner leaving well fairwell Mr. Elizabeth Taylor you were never a Conservative and Tom Davis you are a Squish...

[Dave Juday]

a guy named Keithe Fimian will announce for Davis' seat.

Fimian is a former W&M football star, brief NFL career, owner of the nation's largest home inspection business, community leader, charitable foundation founder, father of two gown children, and rock solid Reagan conservative who has $200k in an exploratory cmte already.

Best candidat in NoVa in years!