Predictions 50 Days Out

Party Control Changes Only

SENATE

John Miller defeats Tricia Stall
Chap Petersen defeats Jeannemarie Davis
Ralph Northam defeats Nick Rerras

New Senate- 20 Republicans, 20 Democrats

HOUSE

Margi Vanderhye defeats Dave Hunt
Manoli Loupassi defeats Katherine Waddell
Paul Nichols defeats Faisal Gill
Eric Ferguson defeats Charles Poindexter
Bobby Matheison defeats John Welch

New House-  54 Republicans, 44 Democrats, 2 Independents

UPDATE:  Brimur disagrees and predicts a wave.

Comments

[Dannyboy]

Don't count out Bouchard, pal. Joe is running a better campaign than Bobby is. Sure, he's running against a Stolle. But from what I hear about home, things are still going good for him.

I commend Ben for boldly going on the record and making these predictions 50 days out. Certainly things may change between now and Election Day, but I think he's done a very good job of projecting where things look right now.

[asmith]

Bobby is running a good campaign. Welch is already attacking him so you know Doc is worried.

I agree with Dannyboy about Bouchard. Ken Stolle has been trying to shut Joe down since Chris won the primary. Expect a close race in the 83rd.

[eileen]

I think we pick up a fourth seat in the Senate. I agree with the 3 wins you have listed, but I also think we pick up at least one from the 5 other competitive races, Pollard, Schultz, Heretick, Oleszak and Barker.

Barker in the Senate and maybe Day in the House would be the other ones I might add to your list.

[Greg]

I think you're basically spot on, except for Delegate Welch. People constantly underestimate his survivability.
Jeanmarrie vs. Chap is a tossup right now so that prediction is as good as any.
Cuccinelli would be vulnerable if he were running against anyone with some political saavy.

Schultz and Heretick have no chance.

[NotTomRust]

Donahue Wins... Tom Rust WROTE the abuser fee law.

[Chippenham]

Not so sure about Waddell. That district voted against the gay marriage amendment by 10 points. How many Republicans do you think will win (much less beat an incumbent) in districts like that statewide?

I thought I caught the end of a Waddell ad on CNN this morning, and her campaign has posted it on RK. Don't know how embedding works here, this is the link http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBWw9wGPkqU and it has a pretty good message of independence if you ask me.

[Not Jack Herrity]

NTR, where have you been? The abuser fee was so two weeks ago. Illegal immigration is the issue right now. Get with the flow.

NJH

That Katherine Waddell ad was pretty bad...and a bit creepy.

[waddell ad]

notice she is leaning left in the ad...

[J. Scott]

Waddell is canvassing better than Loupassi. Many are questioning Loupassi literature running away from being a Republican. He will have to make it up in the City because if residents in Chesterfield turnout Waddell will beat him. She beat Marrs who is alot more fiscal conservative than Loupassi and his association with mess in City government does not help matters.

That ad was awful.

Does she really speak that way?

Sounds awful. Seriously that accent is almost incomprehensible.

[the poster formerly known as 147.]

if you think that accent is an issue at all you haven't spent any time in the 68th. Definitley a regular waspy west end voice.

[Greg]

You guys are wrong about "The Loupass." People were saying the same things about his chances in Chesterfield when he ran against a longtime county resident in the primary.
Loupassi will attack your strengths and outwork you in your own backyard. He has tremendous crossover appeal within the city and strong support in Chesterfield's conservative communities. Underestimate him at your own peril.

J. Scott -

Are you really claiming that the Chesterfield -- that's right, CHESTERFIELD -- portion of the 68th district will go for Waddell?

I mean, Marrs got 58% here, and carried the county by 2400 votes.

Please enlighten me why you think that Waddell is so strong here just 2 years later.

[Greg]

My thoughts exactly...

[Chippenham]

Perhaps he thinks that because she is the incumbent now? Power of incumbency + the Republican party being in a much weaker position in voters minds now compared to 2 years ago has to be worth something, doesn't it?

Or do the trends going on in the rest of Virginia and the country somehow not apply to this one district...

[t]

t SPEAKS

Stall, Chap, Cooch and Rerras ALL win.

t SPEAKS

[t]

t SPEAKS

Stall, Chap, Cooch and Rerras ALL win.

t SPEAKS

[Dannyboy]

d SPEAKS

Miller, Chap, Cooch, and Northam ALL win.

d SPEAKS

[Ghost of A.L. Philpott]

ghost SPEAKS

t is still a dolt

ghost SPEAKS

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

You've got to be kidding if you think Cooch is going to win. After seeing his "Right Ron" video and comparing the two campaign's messages versus the fit for the district, Janet in a landslide.

And if you think Jay O'Brien is a sure bet too, I want some of what you're smoking...

Senate +5 for Dems.

House +6 for Dems (your nuts if you don't think one of the following won't win: Simmons, Donahue, Day, Martinez, Brown). One of them, at least, is going to win.

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

OK, "landslide" might be a bit strong. 55% to Janet, 52% to George.

Although, the don't call Delegate Scott "Landslide Jim" for his one vote victory to the House of Delegates for nothing!