Not Larry Sabato

BLOOMBERG COMING IN FOR JEANNEMARIE

BVBL has the story and this appears to have been timed while Bob McDonnell is out of the country and unable to defend himself.  Disgusting and cowardly!!!!

Any reporter that runs this story without a quote from McDonnell should be fired for negligence.

UPDATE:  AP Story is up.  Of course Bob Lewis, the worst reporter in Richmond has nothing to say about Jeannemarie's slap in the face to Bob McDonnell.  The way Lewis bites on every dumb press release makes me wonder if we should start a "Bob Lewis Watch", as he is one of the biggest problems in Richmond to the public getting real information on what is happening.

Great Satire

For everyone who needs an amazing laugh in the last week of this election.

Joe May Under Fire

By Not Eve Marie Barner

You know it's the last week of a campaign when random Internet reports show up taking an entrenched incumbent to task for being a supposed racist.

This MyDD post appeared last night citing Del. Joe May's ties to the Sons of Confederate Veterans. This isn't really a secret for people who know Joe May. He advertises the fact here that he is the treasurer for the group.

The blog reactions to this have been predictable: That the Sons of Confederate Veterans has a sordid past and that even some current members have made some unfortunate statements. Here's a good one: "Black Katrina victims are pestilent vermin. These leeches will go on to pollute the communities [where] they're relocated"

Heartwarming.

A couple thoughts on this. Many members, hopefully a majority, of the Sons of Confederate Veterans aren't racists. But the Southern Poverty Law Center reported last year the the SCV is in the middle of its own Civil War between moderates and "radicals with hard line racial views." Del. May is often referred to as a "good guy" by Republicans and Democrats alike in the 33rd District. I've met Joe May and tend to like him too, but I'd like to hear from him why he continues to hold office for a group that serves as a shelter for white supremacists.

What is more troubling about Del. May's affilation is that he has used his position in Richmond to advance the SCV's interests. May personally introduced, sponsored and pushed legislation to require the state Department of Motor Vehicles to add the SCV to its list of authorized vanity plates. The NAACP, the Anti-Defamation League and other organizations vehemently opposed the SCV plate. 

At the time, the commissioner of the DMV,  had discretionary authority over design of the plates. He ruled that the SCV plates could not contain the image of the Confederate Flag. The SCV then pursued a law suit, encouraged by May, that was brought by the national SCV.

Del. May needs to explain to voters in the 33rd why he continues to push the SCV's agenda.

Secondly, this last-minute barrage of Internet posts smacks of desperation from Marty Martinez, the Leesburg Town Councilor running against May. There's no proof of this, mind you, but what other explanation is there? Perhaps Natasha from MyDD can tell us why she decided to take aim at Del. May seven days before an election.

This District, as NLS pointed out the other day, leans Republican. May has been able to stay away from ethically challenged Republicans on the Loudoun County board and should be able to hold on in the middle of a Democratic wave. But May needs to adequately explain his connection with the SCV during this final week or the 33rd could be closer than even the most optimistic Loudoun Democrats think.

OLESZEK GOES UP ON NETWORK TV- UPDATED

New Outlook:  Toss Up

$200,000 worth according to the latest Cuccinelli compass.  Network TV moves votes.  Ken Cuccinelli has to respond or he may not survive this election.  Let's see what this ad is all about.  Without question this move breathes life into the Janet Oleszek campaign.

40th Delegate District-  New Outlook:  Leans Republican (Old Outlook: Likely Republican)

The 40th House is 80% under the 37th Senate District.  If Janet's ad moves voters to the polls they will almost certainly vote for Rex Simmons while they are there.   This brings serious life back into his campaign as well.
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UPDATE:  According to Janet's ad, she is responding to Ken already being on network.  So Janet announced Ken's network buy and Ken announced Janet's network buy.  This is the weirdest race ever.

SHE DID IT

Last night a commenter pointed out that Jean nemarie Devolites Davis was saving a lot of money by lying to the TV stations and saying she was paying for her own TV ads when in fact- Tom Davis for Congress was paying for them.  Current candidates get a major discount on buying TV ads, so this lie did indeed save a lot of money.  This is outright fraud of huge amounts of money, perhaps in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. 

I obtained a copy of the public form Jeannemarie turned into WRC (Channel 4- NBC) where she lies and says she is paying for the ads.
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I'm appalled and I hope the stations prosecute for this fraud.

HILLARY WINS ANOTHER DEBATE

In the biggest debate so far, Hillary Clinton is once again smashing the entire field and looking very Presidential.

Don't Attack Families Creigh

Creigh Deeds at a press conference today for Karen Schultz:

"Her opponent on the other hand is a DC insider- her campaign just took a huge infusion of Oil money- the choice between these two could not be more clear- Karen is only one in this race with a real connection to community values."

Um, that huge infusion of oil money was a check written to Jill Holtzman Vogel by her FATHER.  Creigh, you are totally above this.

Worst Mailpiece of 2007?

Download It Here

HOUSE OF DELEGATES PREVIEW

Once again, an overwhelming number of seats are not even seriously in play this year.  This time going into election day 82 of 100 seats are considered "safe" for the party that currently controls them.  Showing how much Democrats won the candidate recruitment war this year, these 82 seats do not look like the House as a whole, with 43 Republicans, 38 Democrats and 1 Independent.

However, as much as the House looks "in play" from those numbers, there are 8 more races that while not considered "safe" are considered "likely" wins for the incumbent party.  These are races that could have been competitive but never quite got there.  This list includes Watkins Abbitt, Chuck Caputo, Anne Crockett-Stark, Jeff Frederick, Tim Hugo, Robert Hurt's open seat, Scott Lingamfelter and Bob Marshall.  With the likely's figured in the House goes to 49 Republicans, 39 Democrats and
2 Independents, both of whom will join with the GOP in reorganization.  That will give Republicans another two years in the majority, but what will their margin be?  Here are the 10 key races that will determine that:

9th House District- Eric Ferguson vs. Hon. Charles Poindexter
Bush/Kilgore/Bolling/McDonnell/Allen/Yes District
Outlook: Toss Up

In 2005, Eric started out as the huge underdog, got no help from Richmond and surged at the end to a very close result.  In 2007, Eric started out with a huge lead and as Richmond Democrats have gotten involved the race gets closer and closer.  Lesson for anyone?

14th House District- Hon. Adam Tomer vs. Delegate Danny Marshall
Bush/Kaine/Bolling/Deeds/Allen/Yes District
Outlook: Toss Up

This race has closed because Adam outworked the incumbent Delegate.  Is that enough to win?  We'll see.

21st House District- Bobby Matheison vs. Delegate John Welch
Bush/Kaine/Bolling/McDonnell/Webb/Yes District
Outlook: Toss Up

Every cycle when an incumbent goes down, its easy to point to special circumstances that involved that incumbent and not others.  This one has a bunch of those circumstances, and so by recent history is the most likely incumbent defeat.

33rd House District- Delegate Joe May vs. Hon. Marty Martinez
Bush/Kaine/Bolling/McDonnell/Allen/Yes District
Outlook: Leans Republican

Joe May might end up winning here by a large margin, but Loudoun politics is too insane to call anything before election day.

34th House District- Dave Hunt vs. Margi Vanderhye
Kerry/Kaine/Byrne/Deeds/Webb/No District
Outlook: Likely Democratic (Pickup)

Margi played it safe in the primary and almost lost it, but her general election campaign has been flawless.  After the 2006 debacle with the Weed campaign, Stephen Davis deserves a lot of credit here for redeeming himself and putting this seat in the Democratic pickup column.

51st House District- Faisal Gill vs. Paul Nichols
Bush/Kaine/Byrne/Deeds/Webb/Yes District
Outlook: Slight-Lean Democratic (Pickup)

Nichols campaign has played it safe in the general election, and as an unknown name that has been a huge strategic error.  Combine that with the weird politics in Prince William County right now, and his lead has been disappearing faster than hair products at the Moran house.  I still thinks Nichols holds on, but why is he talking about immigration and not about terrorism?

68th House District- Del. Katherine Waddell vs. Hon. Manoli Loupassi
Bush/Kaine/Bolling/McDonnell/Allen/No District
Outlook: Slight-Lean Republican (Pickup)

Loupassi is the best GOP candidate for this seat, but it has been a strange year and Waddell is fighting hard for re-election.  I give him the slight edge but this could be closer than people expect.

83rd House District- Joe Bouchard vs. Chris Stolle
Bush/Kaine/Bolling/McDonnell/Allen/Yes District
Outlook: Slight-Lean Republican

Bouchard has run a little bit better campaign here, but this district has a slight lean to Republicans and I don't see a lot of crossover here, seeming to give Stolle a small edge going into election day.

86th House District- Jay Donahue vs. Delegate Tom Rust
Kerry/Kaine/Byrne/Deeds/Webb/Yes District
Outlook: Leans Republican

This district is way too Democratic for a Republican to hold, but Rust has always been popular here.  I think he will sneak by this year because of the immigration hot spots in this district in Herndon and Sterling.  However, unless something changes here, Tom will be very vulnerable in 2009, downballot from a Governor's race.  Rematch?

87th House District- Delegate Paula Miller vs. Hank Giffin
Bush/Kaine/Bolling/McDonnell/Webb/Yes District
Outlook: Leans Democratic

Miller has never impressed here with her showings and Giffin will come closer than he should because of this.  Ironically the Senate candidate Paula was supposed to help, Ralph Northam, may have coattails that end up saving her.  The big question now is- will Paula be able to hang on in 2009 if Bob McDonnell is leading the GOP ticket.
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If the close races break as I expect, there will be 53 Republicans, 42 Democrats, 2 Independents going into the three tossup seats.  Not impressive for the GOP which tried to draw itself 66 safe seats a few years ago.  Democrats are basically guaranteed a pickup this year, and the only question now is what size it is, and whether it is large enough to make a play at the majority in 2009.

WaPo Picks Up on Davis GOTV Flyer

It appears it WAS targeted to Democratic precincts and possibly to minority voters.  Shocking.

Was this intentional?  If it was does anyone expect Jeannemarie to admit it?  How did this flyer get into two of the most Democratic precincts on opposite ends of the district by accident?

Meanwhile the Fairfax Times covers the attack on Chap's family.

We are watching the Davis machine unravel in what is the biggest story of 2007.  Developing...