Earlier this week Congressman Tom Davis called Mark Warner to tell him he would not be running for the Senate, and conceding the 2008 election to Warner.
Now the question is- what will Tom do? He has a press conference this morning to discuss his plans.
If Tom plans to run for re-election he is likely to still face a stiff challenge from former Congresswoman Leslie Byrne. Tom would be considered a favorite in that race, but only very narrowly given the recent trends of the district and Leslie's own political skill.
Tom's other option is to not run for re-election. This is where it gets real interesting. Congressman are prohibited from lobbying Congress for one year after leaving office. If Tom serves out his term, that means no lobbying until Jan. of 2010, and if he is eyeing a Senate race in 2012, that doesn't leave much time to make money.
But if he resigns tomorrow, or right after this election in November, he would only have to wait until late 2008 to begin his lucrative lobbying career.
Why would Davis want to serve out his term in office in the minority if it is only going to delay his inevitable rise as a lobbyist? Especially if he really is considering a return to politics in 2012 and needs to make money fast. I think a resignation in the near future is a serious possibility. This morning's press conference is the perfect chance if he is going to do it before the election.
No. He is not.
Ben, get a grip. You've lost your last marble, the one you were sharing with Janet.
Posted by: SW mom | October 24, 2007 at 10:59 PM
Could we be looking at one than more special election???
Posted by: the poster formerly known as 147. | October 24, 2007 at 11:02 PM
*or more than one
Posted by: the poster formerly known as 147. | October 24, 2007 at 11:03 PM
The Post says he just not running for Senate and hasn't made his mind up for Congress.
It was even confirmed by JMDD? Would she lie???
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/24/AR2007102402489.html?hpid=moreheadlines
Posted by: Not Harry F. Byrd, Sr. | October 24, 2007 at 11:08 PM
No, we're not looking at a special election, we're looking at a special child, Ben.
Posted by: SW mom | October 24, 2007 at 11:10 PM
Via RK via Roll Call:
http://www.rollcall.com/issues/53_48/news/20651-1.html?CMP=OTC-RSS
Posted by: John Smith | October 24, 2007 at 11:15 PM
I hope that Roll Call news item is true... that is our seat if Tom Davis bows out...
Posted by: Matthew | October 24, 2007 at 11:20 PM
No special election, if anything Davis announces that he isn't going to seek re-election in 2008, but no chance that he retires without serving the remainder of his term...unless of course Jeannemarie and him have some Nov. 6th deal.
Posted by: PoliticalHackySack | October 24, 2007 at 11:46 PM
As much as I would love to see Tom Davis gone, I sort of want to see him go down fighting. It's more fun that way.
Posted by: Aimee | October 24, 2007 at 11:53 PM
Ben:
At this moment, about the only thing that TD should be thinking about is JMDD's election. His announcing that he is not running would add to the impression of a decrease in her influence, and to the idea that the Fairfax Republican party is approaching total meltdown. That can't be good for JMDD's chances. Since I really want Chap to win, I hope he says he's not running, or even resigning. However, I think that announcement will come after Election day, if it comes at all.
Posted by: | October 25, 2007 at 12:12 AM
12:12, you are right. If Tom resigns now, they're conceding Jeannemarie's loss on November 6th. There is NO WAY that's gonna happen.
Why would Tom and Jeannemarie need any money? Tom is great at fundraising. I've never known a pol to quit his job to earn money to run for office. That makes NO sense.
If Tom quits his job, it's not because he needs to raise money to run in 2012, but something far more serious. He'd never voluntarily quit his job. NO WAY.
Posted by: SW mom | October 25, 2007 at 12:30 AM
SW Mom, Ben's not saying he would retire now to start fundraising. He's saying that he would retire in order to build his own personal wealth.
Posted by: Bryan J. Scrafford | October 25, 2007 at 12:40 AM
Don't overestimate TD's ability to earn big bucks once he is out of ovvice. As I understand it, he does not have much respect from his colleagues across the aisle, the ones who are in power right now.
His earning potential is only a fraction of what it was 2 years ago.
Posted by: | October 25, 2007 at 12:47 AM
This leak to the Washington Post and this "press conference" tomorrow is just a way for him to remind people who is wife is and a calculated effort to get JMDD some earned media.
He's going to say I'm not running for Senate and I haven't made up my mind about anything else.
It's a press stunt and the Washington Post will happily lap it up. Period.
Posted by: Not Harry F. Byrd, Sr. | October 25, 2007 at 12:48 AM
Tom Davis would be considered more than just a "narrow" favorite over Leslie Byrne.
Posted by: Va Blogger | October 25, 2007 at 12:53 AM
va blogger,
A no name candidate with zero 0 and zero national help held Davis to 56.
He's still a favorite over Leslie, but it's not much more than narrow.
Posted by: the poster formerly known as 147. | October 25, 2007 at 01:04 AM
that would be zero $.
Two typos in one thread. I'm going to bed.
Posted by: the poster formerly known as 147. | October 25, 2007 at 01:05 AM
If Tom Davis retires from his seat, then more likely than not it goes blue in 2008. If Davis lets that happen, his chances of actually getting the nomination in 2012 are slim. Remember Trible? Gave up in the face of Chuck Robb? Davis won't be remembered as a team player if what you say will happen happens, Ben. I think it comes down to what he wants to do in 2012. He wants to run for the Senate then, he must stay in this House race. If he retires, it's for good.
Posted by: Dan Geroe | October 25, 2007 at 01:21 AM
Resign Tom.
You stood for nothing.
You accomplished nothing.
You will be remembered for nothing.
You were the King of Nothing.
Posted by: t | October 25, 2007 at 01:53 AM
Stop trying to get Leslie a special election. It is not going to happen.
Posted by: 55 | October 25, 2007 at 01:58 AM
Leslie's political skill?
How many races has she lost?
Posted by: Chris - Mason Conservative | October 25, 2007 at 04:20 AM
"Leslie's own political skill."
ROFLMAO!! Somebody is delusional.
Posted by: | October 25, 2007 at 06:20 AM
Wow, if Leslie sucks that bad Tom Davis must be a total troll for only beating her by 3 points in a year like 1994.
Posted by: | October 25, 2007 at 06:22 AM
We now have:
The King of Morons
The King of Nothing
I'm worried about the pro-royalty trend this blog is taking. Unless, of course, you name Bubby the Baron of Badass next.
Posted by: Doug | October 25, 2007 at 06:44 AM
Ben,
I realize these are simply theories offered for discussion and not predictions, but I'd be surprised if he resigns or runs for Senate in 2012.
Everyone knows he's been eyeing John Warner's Senate spot for a long time and that he was expecting a hand-off from Warner. Without the campaign-cash he once had and without a good endorsement from the previous office-holder, he becomes one more wanna-be. And, he'll be even less of a stand-out five years from now after various other electeds have had so much time in the sun.
For that reason and others, I think he'll stay in his House seat. If he were to actually leave office, I would be shocked if it was mid-term. His contributors would have a fit if he squandered their re-election contributions just to leave mid-term.
Posted by: Pete in Williamsburg | October 25, 2007 at 07:50 AM