UPDATED PREDICTIONS- 22 Days Out

STATE SENATE (Party Changes Only):

Chap Petersen defeats Jeannemarie Devolites Davis
Albert Pollard defeats Richard Stuart
Ralph Northam defeats Nick Rerras
John Miller defeats Tricia Stall

NEW SENATE: 21 Democrats, 19 Republicans

HOUSE OF DELEGATES (Party Changes Only):
Eric Ferguson defeats Charles Poindexter
Margi Vanderhye defeats Dave Hunt
Paul Nichols defeats Faisal Gill
Manoli Loupassi defeats Katherine Waddell
Bobby Matheison defeats John Welch
Adam Tomer defeats Danny Marshall

NEW HOUSE OF DELEGATES:  53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, 2 Independents

Comments

[Interested Observer]

What about the Cuccinelli-Oleszek race? Who does NLS predict for that one?

[Chris - Mason Conservative]

More interestingly, what about Jay O'Brien-George Barker?

What part of "party changes only" do you not understand? If they're not on the list he's predicting the incumbent party to win.

[novamiddleman]

I know this would be some work on your part but it would be nice to have a brief paragraph saying what basis you are basing your predictions on

In four of the other senate seats, 37th, 22nd, 27th, Cuccinelli #?, two of the four Dems will win. Most likely are wins by Shultz and Briener due to being open seats. Incumbents could hold on by a narrow margin. Odds just point to this being a wave year not a slight pickup year. Also Dems take the house--several GOP seats not on the radar screen will fall to Dems. Just look at recent polls of generic Dem/GOP by double digits favoring Dems. That pulls over otherwise close elections in low turnout years. By the way I have always voted GOP never Dem.

[novamiddleman]

Arlington, Alexandria, and inner Fairfax (high D areas) dont have any contested elections. A better poll would only be among the competitive districts

[Chippenham]

If only Manoli's pollster agreed with you...

Schultz is probably running closer to Vogel right now than Pollard to Stuart. Stuart will pull it off with a larger margin than most expect.

[bwana]

1. I tend to think Ben is only calling races he thinks has a clear outcome.

2. Anon at 0738...what odds or precedent are you referring to?

[Va Blogger]

Anon738, Ken's district is the 37th, so you just named three districts. Way to know what you're talking about.

[farmerjohn]

Schultz is toast - Washington Post endorsed Vogel this morning:

District 27 : In this open-seat race, we support Republican Jill Holtzman Vogel, a lawyer who made her name as counsel to the Bush-Cheney campaign during the Florida recount of 2000, as chief counsel to the Republican National Committee and as a political appointee in the federal Energy Department. She's also been heavily involved in state and local affairs, which has given her a solid grounding in the issues facing her largely rural district, comprising parts of Loudoun and Fauquier counties and points west. Articulate, fast on her feet and pragmatic, she is the sort of moderate Republican that has become scarce in Richmond. Her opponent, Democrat Karen Schultz, is a respected, hardworking educator, school board member and community leader but lacks Mrs. Vogel's spark and command of state issues.

Anon 8:27 - how many votes does the Washington Post get to cast in District 27?

[dems4dems]

In contested races, the Post endorsed four Democrats and two Republicans (and went fishing on the Janet-Cooch race). The Post always endorses token Republicans whose candidacies fly in the face of the values espoused by the Post's editorial page. They want us to believe they are "independent". I'm sick of them and wish the editorial page would just shut up.

All this inside baseball about the Post does not address the real campaign issue....What is the political impact of such an endorsement on undecideds?

[dems4dems]

May the real issue is which is more important: the so-called "undecideds" or turnout?

[Pete in Williamsburg]

Dems 4 Dems,

It's hard for me to accept that there are many undecideds out there. I would think that an off-gov GA election year has some of the lowest turn-out among voters. I think about the number of voters know the name of their GA delegate and senator and it can't be a very big number. Those are the voters heading to the polls on election day.

I think that anyone who knows there is an election this November is probably a relative insider and has no indecision.

[AlterofFreedom]

Waddell still performing better than Loupassi, although much closer than two months ago. His mailings (about 8 to her 2) seem to be making up some ground. Do not agree with two out east after performances at ODU, Welch should hang on and Rerras did himself the best of any and will win a close one over Pollard. I am not as confident in the Rerras race as Northam is doing well with his message as that of Welch's race. Mathieson took three steps back over the course of the last two weeks. I can't get a real handle yet on the Peterson-Davis race which leads me to believe Chap may just pull it off given that with Davis's reputation we should have had a clearer picture by now but its still really too close to call independently yet.

[Alterof Freedom]

Sorry I meant Rerras over Northam. Stuart and Pollard closer than people think at this point.

[anon 7:38]

I meant to say 22nd, 27th, 37th and 39th Senate districts. Sorry not from Nova. The odds I speak of are if you look back at 2003 with the GOP up +5 statewide in generic ballot and now the Dems are up +11 that is a 16 point swing. Anyone Rep. that won in a competitive district on 2003 by less than 16 points ie 58-42 should not go home early on Nov. 6th.

[Bruce]

Why no post on the endorsements of the POST.

Vogel, Colgan, Herring, Devolites-Davis and Barker in the hot races.

Funniest part - NO ENDORSEMENT in the Cooch v Janet race. Wow, as right wing and anti-post as he is, even the Post couldn't find a way to endorse his opponent.

[bwana]

They must not be too taken with her to say JO :"...has run a lackluster campaign, at times embarrassingly short on substance"

I knew they would throw one endorsement the GOP in a competitive race, but I thought that would be Pollard-Stuart, not JMDD-Chap!

If number of signs mean anything (which we know they don't) Breiner will KILL Smith. That said, I still think Smith wins although it'll be closer than many expect.

Add Barker, Brown, and Day to the pickup list.

[cageyd]

The WaPo is not philosophically able to openly endorse a principled, conservative Republican like Ken Cuccinelli. Their non-endorsement, however, gives Senator Cuccinelli a tremendous boost. By not endorsing the liberal Democrat, Ken's GOP base will now be greatly energized to get out the vote because Janet Oleszek has been publicly exposed as the "empty suit" that can and should be defeated. Janet's Democrat base will be greatly depressed because their greatest fear has been realized - Janet has been publicly exposed as the "empty suit" that they have been trying to hide.

[Gnarly]

Barker (maybe) because of the big loss and drag of Gill in the 51st...but are you NUTS? Brown and Day?...come on...there is absolutely no evidence that those races will be real tight.