Not Larry Sabato

HOSTAGES AT HILLARY'S OFFICE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE

The obsession of the right wingers attacking this woman have got to stop- crazy people are watching and getting worked up over politics and it is creating a dangerous situation.

I hope everyone is praying for the hostages right now.

TOM DAVIS IS BOYCOTTING THE ADVANCE

HIS STAFF IS TELLING PEOPLE HE DOESN'T WANT TO MINGLE WITH PEOPLE THAT WANT TO DESTROY THE PARTY!!!!

I WILL BE ON SCENE TONIGHT TO GET REACTIONS FROM THOSE ATTENDING.

Saxman is In

Vince has the scoop- I don't think they would put Chris Saxman next to Jim Gilmore in the speaking order unless he was in the race for U.S. Senate.  Wow, this will be fun to watch.

Another Awesome Video

Red State Update reviews the GOP Debate. These guys are way too funny.

Senator-Elect Petersen LiveBlog at 3 P.M.

Chap Petersen is here at 3 p.m. to discuss his endorsement of Leslie Byrne and anything else on your mind- leave your questions in this thread.

CHAP PETERSEN ENDORSES LESLIE BYRNE FOR CONGRESS

Senator-Elect Chap Petersen Endorses Leslie Byrne For Congress

Democratic Party United to Change the 11th District Next Year

In 2005, Chap Petersen and Leslie Byrne both ran for Lt. Governor in the Democratic Primary.  Combined they received 89% of the vote in the 11th Congressional District in a four way primary.

Being former primary opponents, some people may be surprised that Chap is supporting Leslie, and certainly so early in the campaign. 

Chap’s Statement on why he is endorsing Leslie Byrne for Congress and why now: 

“I have known Leslie Byrne for many years.  We served together in the Virginia General Assembly.  She is a great voice for working families." 

"A couple years ago, Leslie and I competed for the Democratic nomination for Lt. Governor.  We had some lively debates which was healthy for us and the party.  The thing I always respected about Leslie was that she told it straight no matter the audience.  She gave the same answer in Halifax that she did in Fairfax.  That type of integrity is rare in politics."

"A year later, Leslie and I were two of the first Virginia Democrats to support Jim Webb.  Leslie's endorsement gave enormous credibility to Jim's maverick candidacy.  It is no exaggeration to say that her leadership at a crucial stage helped turn Virginia and the U.S. Senate blue."

"Leslie is seeking office for all the right reasons.  She represents the core principles of the Democratic Party.  I am proud to endorse her candidacy for U.S. Congress."

"I wanted to get involved early in this primary because it is very important that the Democratic Party is united as soon as possible in replacing Tom Davis with a voice that represents real change in the 11th Congressional District."

Following Petersen’s statement, Leslie released her comments on this very positive development for her campaign:

"Chap and I got to know each other well during the primary.  We came away with a lot of respect for each other.  His endorsement means a great deal to me.”

The Democratic Primary will be held on June 10th, 2008.

Background for media:  Chap and Leslie are the only two Democrats in Virginia history to defeat Republican incumbents in both houses of the Virginia legislature.

Huckabee's New Slogan

Download nls_alert.gif xxx

MITT ROMNEY IS BLOWING IT TONIGHT

Mike Huckabee and John McCain are winning...

DOES GERRY CONNOLLY NOT RESPECT UNIONS?

One of the most important supporters of the Democratic Party is organized labor.  Those who say the party owes its own support and gratitude to labor are correct- and it's because we have shared values, even if labor doesn't always support every Democratic candidate.

Which is why I was shocked to see this!  A party being organized on Gerry Connolly stationery- and being handed out by John Jennison and George Burke- and they couldn't even bother to get the union bug on this flyer, showing they had gotten it union printed. 

Totally pathetic- a slap in the face to our union friends- and inexcusable.  

Wampler Retirement and Implications

For more information on the 40th Senate District check this out.

Obviously the rumored retirement of William Wampler could have a huge impact on the State Senate.  Currently 21 Democrats and 19 Republicans among the Senators-Elect, this would give Democrats an opportunity to seize another seat and have a more stable majority.  As Bwana had pointed out, right now the Senate majority is contingent on Senators like Chuck Colgan staying in excellent health.  For a guy in his 80's, that is a risky proposition for four years. 

But expanding the majority is complicated for Democrats.  Every seat other than Ken Cuccinelli now held by a Republican is a Bush/Kilgore/Bolling/McDonnell/Allen/Yes district.  What makes Democrats think they can win this one by appointing Wampler to the SCC?

The likely Democratic candidate in this special election is Delegate Joe Johnson.  Joe is one of only two House Democrats left in a straight Republican voting district at the statewide level, and that seat takes up about 40% of this Senate District.  Joe has all of Bristol, and parts of Washington and Smyth counties.  He is a very strong candidate because he is likely to carry outright his House district- and by a large margin, providing a Democratic base in a district that otherwise doesn't have one.

The only way to beat Johnson would be running up a good Republican margin in the far western party of the district, while is represented by Delegate Terry Kilgore.  Terry is in quite a bind here- he is House GOP Caucus Chairman, so moving up would be complicated (although not unprecedented- Creigh Deeds was House Democratic Caucus Chairman and ran for the State Senate in 2001).  Democrats are hoping Kilgore passes on this race because of his House responsibilities- leaving Republicans with a lesser known candidate and little time to get known enough to get the heavy turnout needed in places like Scott County to stop Johnson.

Another great Republican candidate would have been Wise Commonwealth's Attorney Chad Dotson- but he took himself out of the running when he got a judgeship last year.  With a young family, chances are low Dotson would trade in a judge's salary for a State Senator's.

This is potentially a pretty big coup for the Democrats- if Johnson gets in and Kilgore stays out, I am rating this seat a "Leans Democratic Pickup" in the Special Election.

Meanwhile while the Senate GOP caucus may become smaller again, conservatives are once again looking at a pickup.  It was only two years ago Republicans held 24 seats, and Senate moderates had a 19-5 advantage in the ranks.  Now that advantage is down to 12-7 among the 19 current seats, and a Wampler retirement/Johnson pickup will move that to 11-7.  If conservatives get lucky and got Kilgore to run, they might even be able to flip the seat totally within the caucus going to 11-8.  I can't imagine seeing Norment still as leader by the time the next elections are finished, given how quickly the moderate GOP has collapsed in their once dominant home.