Wampler Retirement and Implications

For more information on the 40th Senate District check this out.

Obviously the rumored retirement of William Wampler could have a huge impact on the State Senate.  Currently 21 Democrats and 19 Republicans among the Senators-Elect, this would give Democrats an opportunity to seize another seat and have a more stable majority.  As Bwana had pointed out, right now the Senate majority is contingent on Senators like Chuck Colgan staying in excellent health.  For a guy in his 80's, that is a risky proposition for four years. 

But expanding the majority is complicated for Democrats.  Every seat other than Ken Cuccinelli now held by a Republican is a Bush/Kilgore/Bolling/McDonnell/Allen/Yes district.  What makes Democrats think they can win this one by appointing Wampler to the SCC?

The likely Democratic candidate in this special election is Delegate Joe Johnson.  Joe is one of only two House Democrats left in a straight Republican voting district at the statewide level, and that seat takes up about 40% of this Senate District.  Joe has all of Bristol, and parts of Washington and Smyth counties.  He is a very strong candidate because he is likely to carry outright his House district- and by a large margin, providing a Democratic base in a district that otherwise doesn't have one.

The only way to beat Johnson would be running up a good Republican margin in the far western party of the district, while is represented by Delegate Terry Kilgore.  Terry is in quite a bind here- he is House GOP Caucus Chairman, so moving up would be complicated (although not unprecedented- Creigh Deeds was House Democratic Caucus Chairman and ran for the State Senate in 2001).  Democrats are hoping Kilgore passes on this race because of his House responsibilities- leaving Republicans with a lesser known candidate and little time to get known enough to get the heavy turnout needed in places like Scott County to stop Johnson.

Another great Republican candidate would have been Wise Commonwealth's Attorney Chad Dotson- but he took himself out of the running when he got a judgeship last year.  With a young family, chances are low Dotson would trade in a judge's salary for a State Senator's.

This is potentially a pretty big coup for the Democrats- if Johnson gets in and Kilgore stays out, I am rating this seat a "Leans Democratic Pickup" in the Special Election.

Meanwhile while the Senate GOP caucus may become smaller again, conservatives are once again looking at a pickup.  It was only two years ago Republicans held 24 seats, and Senate moderates had a 19-5 advantage in the ranks.  Now that advantage is down to 12-7 among the 19 current seats, and a Wampler retirement/Johnson pickup will move that to 11-7.  If conservatives get lucky and got Kilgore to run, they might even be able to flip the seat totally within the caucus going to 11-8.  I can't imagine seeing Norment still as leader by the time the next elections are finished, given how quickly the moderate GOP has collapsed in their once dominant home.

Comments

[Chris - Mason Conservative]

This might sound crazy, but what if were talking about the wrong Kilgore. What if Brother Jerry runs instead? Its not uncommon for people to move back down the ballot (Leslie Byrne is a prime example). I don't know, just a thought.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Jerry could win it- but he'd have to reestablish residence again down there- I think he now a registered voter in Henrico.

[Geoff]

you know here's a problem I see. The democrats in the house are already facing an uphill battle to reclaim control. If Joe Johnson runs for senate the odds are his seat will flip to republicans, which makes life harder for the democrats next time around.

[Dan Geroe]

If Democrats can convince Pollard to run for his old House Seat in the almost-guaranteed special election coming up, then the House may be able to make that sacrifice.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Fred Parker (D) will run for Johnson's seat- more on that later, but he is already an elected official for most of that seat. The statewide election results don't mean much in SW Virginia.

[tpacker]

Is this retirement tied to a possible legislative appointment to a high profile, high dollar position?

I don't think an SCC judgeship is a high profile position. Without looking on the website, most people can't say how many commissioners there are let alone their names.

[Bwana]

But this is not unprecendented...I seem to recall that Gilmore got narrow GOP control of each house in the GA by offering appointed positions to David Brickley (HOD) and Charles Waddell (Senate). The point is that serving in appointed or the various judgeships not only gives on ea secure job but also accelerates your position in the state retirement program.

[Ghost of Henry Howell]

Joe Johnson wins Wampler's seat, after a last-second visit from Mayor Bloomberg backfires against Kilgore. Fred Parker (the man from Abingdon!) wins Joe's Delegate seat with strong Washington County support. Dems pick up a seat in the Senate and hold numbers in the House.

[Social Conservative]

Joe Johnson would be awesome in the Senate. He is the only Democrat to score 100 percent on the Family Foundation's Scorecard. He's totally pro-life. He'd be far more conservative than either Kilgore, both losers.

Here's one vote for Joe!

No way, GOHH. Joe's seat is a clear GOP pick-up...

What about Johnson's health issues. He missed alot of votes last session due to illness.

[Not John Marshall]

Let's not forget about Circuit Court Clerk & former Delegate & Senator Jack Kennedy of Wise Co. If Wampler's seat becomes vacant, Kennedy would be a formidable opponent to any R. Parker has been considered Johnson's logical replacement for years & the thought of Johnson running for Wampler's seat doesn't appear realistic to a lot of D's in the great SW.

I have a difficult time seeing Johnson stepping up. He's sort of old and people in both parties have been looking at him as a retirement waiting to happen. I think most Dems were hoping he'd hold out retiring until the next round of redistricting.

It's difficult to imagine he'd want to spend a lot of time campaigning in the Jonesville area. I just don't see it happening.

[william jackson]

There was rumor a while back of Johnson's retirement, and his son running for his seat as a republican.

It's true that Johnson could probably pick this seat up, but does he even want it?

[GOPHokie]

Don't forget that the GOP has a pretty strong candidate to run for that seat either at the Senate level or the House.

Joe Johnson's son has a judgeship now, doesn't he?

[AdamTolbert]

Joe Johnson's son is indeed a judge of the General District Court for the 28th District. I don't see a judge trading in their huge salary for a part time job.

In being from Smyth County, I don't see Joe Johnson running for this. Rumor is that he has some health issues. He would be a formidable candidate for the Dems if he did run. Even though I am a Republican, I admire him.

I also don't see somebody like Jack Kennedy from Wise County seeking the job. It wouldn't make sense to give up a constitutional office (and big pay check) for a part time job either.

Jerry Kilgore might be an interesting prospect if he decided to seek the seat. Terry would be sacrificing a lot in going from the House to the Senate. I don't know if it would make a lot of sense for Terry to do that.

It'll be interesting to see what happens.

[Spank That Donkey]

Moderate Republican = Willing to raise taxes = Minority status

Spanky...Funny how most the seat that the GOP lost were the ones who were "conservative." You would still have the majority today if Stall hadnt beat Williams.

[noke]

Tell Ralph Smith that.

[noke]

NLS, now you need to update all those senate and delegate district analyses.

[notnotlarrysabato]

Ben you are showing how bad a disconnect you have once you get out of NOVA. Parker is not giving up a 100K job to run for a 20K one. Joe Johnson's health is terrible and he is not a potential candidate. So forget that house district for now but not for long. When Joe goes it will be a GOP seat. For closer news about this area try the new blog morning in virginia @ blogspot

[Mimi Schaeffer]

Remnants of the David Brickley doctrine.

Karma may not be when we want it but usually it's right on time.

[AdamTolbert]

I agree that whenever Joe Johnson retires his seat will flip GOP. I know of some likely candidates now for that seat. They just don't want to take on Joe Johnson. I couldn't blame them for that. Joe is an extremely nice guy and is popular.

Wampler's seat would stay in the hands of the GOP. Unlike the 38th District, it does not have traditionally "Democratic counties" that would sway the vote.

I will say that in a special election for the 40th both parties are likely to find their candidate in Scott, Washington, or Bristol. Those three localities represent that most populous part of the district. Although, I do wonder if the Dems will try to have Tom Graham (investment banker) of Marion run who took on Bill Carrico in 2003.

Why would any "real" Republican candidate run? They have to know they will be drawn out in the next re-districting.

Del. Terry Kilgore and every other Republican office-holder knows that in four years they will be out of a job.

NLS - you obviously have no clue what you're talking about - once again. Joe Johnson will never run for this seat due to his health issues. More fly-by-the-seat-of-your-pants analysis by the great Ben......

[notnotlarrysabato]

Joe almost flipped himself about a year ago so that is one prime reason no one in the GOP has taken him on. That plus he has been Wamlper's lap dog on the Tobacco Commission, so long as he got something for his guys. e could get a lot more there than he could in the legislature.

All that said, he is a nice though ineffective guy but the district has several good conservatives ready to run.

If there are such great Republican candidates out there why haven't we heard their names?

My guess is Kilgore stays in the House because he does not want to be in the minority when he is already powerful in the House majority.

No one else really wants apiece of Joe Johnson because he will beat them all. Even if a Republican did squeak by with a win, they would be drawn out of that district in four years.

[Neal]

Delegate Johnson just recently got over cancer, and according to his brother, he's very happy where he is right now. He came down to our Democratic Committee meeting before the election to campaign, even though he had no opponent, so he obviously enjoys what he's doing.
I can see Tom Graham running, or Mark Graham. Mark just lost the Washington County Clerk's race in November. Fred Parker is certainly capable, but he seems to be very happy where he is. One name I would throw out is Dr. Doug Weberling, the former mayor of Bristol.

[Not Brian Moran]

Apparently Byrum Geisler is considering running. But he's only running to set himself up for a judgeship, just like his brother did. His wife is also a judge.

He's willing to lose the seat to be "owed" a judgeship. That's just great.