Not Larry Sabato

Gone Until New Years

I'm off for a vacation until New Years Eve! 

If anything exciting happens, use this as an open thread.

Otherwise I will be back in 2008!

And as a special treat for Tony Romo before the Redskins playoff run begins Sunday:

Go Jessica!  Get the Redskins in the Playoffs!

Important Discussion: Should NLS Become a Dating Site?

A friend of mine has been doing online dating.  During one of her email exchanges the guy asked her what her favorite "websites or blogs" were.  Excellent question for getting information on someone.  She responded with a list of four or five which included NLS.  He responded and said he was very familiar with this website and included his favorites.

I, of course highly recommended him to my friend even though I don't know him because he must be very high quality if he reads this website.  But that got me thinking- should we have a NLS dating service?  Clearly this is already a place where high quality singles meet. 

What do you guys think?   

ATTACK TIMELINE

A new website dedicated to showing Barack Obama's desperate attacks!

(With a new message from General Wes Clark)

99th House District

Outlook:  Likely Democratic (Pickup)

Albert Pollard is almost certainly going to win back his seat in the House of Delegates in the February Special Election.  He always won here with large margins until he retired in 2005 and when he ran for the State Senate this year he got 57% in this district while coming up just short districtwide.

That having been said, Albert voted for the redistricting bill as a Democrat in 2001, so I'm not really a big fan even though he is excellent on some other issues like the environment.  So I will leave it at that, and if anyone is going to blog in support of him, it can be someone more enthusiastic.  I just can't be pumped up about someone who threw all their colleagues under the bus and eliminated their districts to save his.

Albert's almost certain win will move the House of Delegates to 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and 2 Independents. 

OBAMA AIDE LINKS HILLARY DECISIONS WITH PAKISTAN TRAGEDY AND BHUTTO DEATH

Wow.  Before the body is even cold.

"Bhutto’s death will “call into issue the judgment: who’s made the right judgments,” Axelrod said. “Obviously, one of the reasons that Pakistan is in the distress that it’s in is because al-Qaeda is resurgent, has become more powerful within that country and that’s a consequence of us taking the eye off the ball and making the wrong judgment in going into Iraq. That’s a serious difference between these candidates and I’m sure that people will take that into consideration.” ... Axelrod argued a focus on Pakistan does not help Clinton, who voted to give President Bush the authority to go to war in Iraq. “She was a strong supporter of the war in Iraq, which we would submit, was one of the reasons why we were diverted from Afghanistan, Pakistan and al-Qaeda, who may have been players in this event today, so that’s a judgment she’ll have to defend,” Axelrod said."

He ought to be fired immediately.

DAVE ALBO DOES IT AGAIN

The Newspaper website has the scoop. 

This time Dave Albo has introduced a bill that includes JAIL TIME for people unable to pay his abuser fees. 

Albo has completely lost his mind.

Eve Wilson Dies

10th Congressional District Chairwoman Eve Wilson passed away on Christmas Eve.  The only information I can find online is here on the official 10th CD Democratic website.  No arrangements have been announced.

Eve was a really great lady.  When I ran Chap Petersen's first campaign, Eve used to check in weekly to make sure that everything was going well even though it wasn't her district- she had lived in the Fairfax Mews decades ago and had known Chap since he was born and so she always made sure to keep an eye out for him.  She was a source of great advice and was a very strong Chair for the 10th District for a long period of time.  I will miss her a lot.  As soon as funeral information is known, I will post it here.

UPDATE:  A memorial service will be held at 10:00 AM, Monday, 12/31/07, at St. John's Episcopal Church, 6715 Georgetown Pike, McLean, VA 22101.

Leslie's Base

Since we looked into Gerry's base earlier, it is only fair to look into Leslie Byrne's base in Mason District.

The 2005 Democratic Primary for Lt. Governor featured four candidates- Leslie Byrne, Chap Petersen, Viola Baskerville and Phil Puckett.  So how did Leslie do in the Mason District precincts in the 11th CD? 

I have to break them into two different pieces which I will explain in a second.  Here's the large majority of precincts in Mason that are in the 11th CD:

Leslie Byrne 793 (71.0%)
Chap Petersen 197 (17.6%)
Viola Baskerville 88 (7.9%)
Phil Puckett 39 (3.5%)

71% in a four way race- that is darned impressive! 

Now I took two precincts that are in Mason and the 11th out of this analysis because they were in Chap Petersen's old House of Delegates district, so they voted way different.  In these precincts Chap got 150 votes, Leslie got 52 and Phil/Viola got 3 votes.   So that shows an area where Gerry can make up some margin against Leslie, as his candidacy combined with Chap's endorsement could.... oh wait, Chap has already endorsed Leslie.  Lights out!  Poor Gerry :-)

Mason District looks like a real political powerhouse for Leslie.

Gerry's "Base"

Before being elected Chairman of Fairfax County Gerry Connolly served as Providence District Supervisor for three terms.  Providence is split between the 8th and 11th Congressional Districts.

Gerry's handpicked Supervisor is Linda Smyth who faced a strong primary challenge this year from Charlie Hall.  Gerry made this campaign a referendum on himself, funding Smyth and appearing on virtually every piece of her direct mail.

So what were the results in the 11th Congressional precincts in Gerry's home "base"?

Charlie Hall 1,609 (53.6%)
Linda Smyth 1,395 (46.4%)

Ouch!!!!  This is made even worse by the following factors:

1)  Gerry and Linda both live in this section of the district, yet they still got trounced in the 11th by a guy with zero establishment endorsements.
2)  Gerry could only generate 1,395 votes for his favorite candidate in his home base? That's in 15 precincts or less than 100 votes per precinct.  In his home area?!?! 
3)  Of Charlie voters, approximately 0% of them will vote for Gerry Connolly.  At one smart growth meeting I attended last month the biggest applause line of the night was when one gentleman said Gerry was going to hell.  Not kidding.
4)  Linda's voters are Democratic establishment voters- some of which Leslie will be able to pick off right in Gerry's face.  After all in many of these precincts Leslie has been the Congresswoman or State Senator, there is no reason these establishment voters will side with Gerry automatically here.
5)  Even if Gerry can hold all of Linda's supporters he will lose his own magisterial district in the Congressional primary.

Who are these people in the party leadership that keep telling the media that Gerry is the favorite?  Has the media gotten so lazy that they believe our favorite media whore whenever he speaks?  Look at him work over Channel 7 in that picture...

Great Questions

The Green Miles has started to analyze Tim Kaine's environmental commission.  Good for him!  This list does not look green enough to me either, and hopefully Miles will get some answers soon.

Meanwhile, Eric has a post up on Dominion's political donations.  I have to admit that I have not been following Dominion as closely as needed in recent months.  In fact, when they had hearings to put a large new power line through western Northern Virginia, my Delegate Dave Marsden was the first person to testify at the hearing- in favor- even though the power line doesn't come near his district. Bizarre.  Dominion's overall political influence, and why my Delegate is shilling for them is something I need to learn a lot more about, so anyone who has any knowledge to give me, please don't hesitate to email me at notlarrysabato@hotmail.com.  Thanks!