Gerry's "Base"

Before being elected Chairman of Fairfax County Gerry Connolly served as Providence District Supervisor for three terms.  Providence is split between the 8th and 11th Congressional Districts.

Gerry's handpicked Supervisor is Linda Smyth who faced a strong primary challenge this year from Charlie Hall.  Gerry made this campaign a referendum on himself, funding Smyth and appearing on virtually every piece of her direct mail.

So what were the results in the 11th Congressional precincts in Gerry's home "base"?

Charlie Hall 1,609 (53.6%)
Linda Smyth 1,395 (46.4%)

Ouch!!!!  This is made even worse by the following factors:

1)  Gerry and Linda both live in this section of the district, yet they still got trounced in the 11th by a guy with zero establishment endorsements.
2)  Gerry could only generate 1,395 votes for his favorite candidate in his home base? That's in 15 precincts or less than 100 votes per precinct.  In his home area?!?! 
3)  Of Charlie voters, approximately 0% of them will vote for Gerry Connolly.  At one smart growth meeting I attended last month the biggest applause line of the night was when one gentleman said Gerry was going to hell.  Not kidding.
4)  Linda's voters are Democratic establishment voters- some of which Leslie will be able to pick off right in Gerry's face.  After all in many of these precincts Leslie has been the Congresswoman or State Senator, there is no reason these establishment voters will side with Gerry automatically here.
5)  Even if Gerry can hold all of Linda's supporters he will lose his own magisterial district in the Congressional primary.

Who are these people in the party leadership that keep telling the media that Gerry is the favorite?  Has the media gotten so lazy that they believe our favorite media whore whenever he speaks?  Look at him work over Channel 7 in that picture...

Comments

[dems4dems]

Understood that the anti-development crowd will vote for whomever has the best chance of defeating Gerry but isn't his ability to raise large sums of campaign cash at least as important? Also, NoVA Dems are pragmatic. If they see Gerry winning in November and Leslie struggling, they may vote for the candidate who offers the best chance for a pickup. (Recall Webb v. Miller?)

[Not Larry Sabato]

First of all, why do you say he can raise large sums of money? For a federal race the money has to come from individuals, not corporations- which Gerry has always struggled with.

Second, NoVA Dems guessing who can win statewide can't be compared with them picking their own Congresswoman.

Third, comparing Leslie to Harris Miller in any way is laughable.

Fourth, anyone who doesn't like out-of-control sprawl and giving away everything including the kitchen sink to developers is part of an "anti-development crowd"? Whatever.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Nice 1050!

[Kevin]

Voting for Leslie is pragmatic and will give the Democrats the best shot at winning the 11th. Count me as a Providence voter who will vote for Leslie.

[George Templeton]

Any excuse to post the flag shirt is a good one. Kate Hanley come back! Please!!!!!

[Bwana]

Actually, I have wondered about this...Gerry may well run across the county, but that would include all those very reliably democratic precincts in the 8th district.

a three way primary will be interesting...

[ifthethunderdontgetya™³²®©]

Well, he does have nice legs, apparently.
~

[Loudoun Insider]

Once again I have to point out that NLS endorsed this a-hole for re-election.

[Veritas]

good points but Gerry does have Braddock district where his vice-chair Sharon Bulova reigns, Springfield dist who are more conservative and may not favor the more liberal byrne as well as Mount Vernon...Oh wait Mount Vernon doesn't turn out anyway...
Also Leslie is hurt by the fact that it will be Presidential Election and more people will turn out that are drawn to GC's name recognition. Anyway should be a fun race to watch

If Leslie is so strong why does she have Ben on here four times a week regurgitating these same tired lines against Gerry.

Maybe if she was doing something worth writing about you could do something other then attack.

Pathetic

[Voted 4 Charlie]

I thought the gentleman at the smart growth meeting (I was there, too) said that "If you vote for Gerry Connolly, then you are definitely going to go to Hell."

I object to anyone referring to people who want smart growth as being anti-development. Charlie Hall was never anti-development. He is an extremely practical man.

[Not Larry Sabato]

You might be right about that, I didn't write his quote down.