Edwards Dropping Bid

Column by Not Gretchen Bulova:

Edwards dropping out.  Of course the big question is, who does this help?  His change message seems to go along with Obama, but his blue-collar support seems to be more Clinton.  It will be interesting to see.

Comments

This helps Clinton, it's obvious.

[Doug]

It helps me. That guy was driving me nuts.

[PM]

If any pollsters have polls in progress, they might as well start over.

Charlie Cook said that if there had been an Edwards exit early on one might predict the bulk would go to Obama as the Hillary alternative, but once Obama became a power unto himself, the outlook is uncertain. I think Ben has summarized the big questions correctly.

Hey, I am not Ben -- give Ben a break with the insults. He provides a forum that is valuable.

I'm off to the islands -- see you all after Feb. 5.

[Dan]

There is speculation that Elizabeth's health may have been a factor in his withdrawal. Please remember her in your prayers.

I'll believe he's dropping out when I see it. This isn't the first time he's staged a major press conference and circulated the rumor that he's dropping out. I do hope Elizabeth's doing well because if he *is* dropping out, I would imagine that's why. Certainly it's not because of his performance in Florida.

But yeah I'm not taking anything for granted.

[Dan]

Some of the more serious folks seem to think a good portion of Edwards support will break toward Clinton. It certainly won't shift like a monolith. It never works that way.

If his withdrawal had come much earlier, I think Clinton would have benefited more. Coming now, when the dynamics of the race have changed so dramatically, I think the net benefit will go to Obama.

[notgretchenbulova]

Dan: What do you mean by "more serious folks?" Am I not serious enough for you?

[FishinginCrisis]

We know that Edwards has been competing with Clinton for the white male vote. However, there's a chance that this isn't a real competition, and many of these voters will break for Obama.

[Bubby]

Well, so much for my absentee vote! Although I think this thing will be decided next Tuesday - well before Virginians get a say.

[Sam]

FishinginCrisis - in both Iowa and Nevada, whenever Edwards would not be viable at a precinct (was only at a couple in Iowa, but a lot more in Nevada), his supporters were reported to have gone to Obama as a second choice by about a 2-to-1 margin.... I don't think he and Hillary are competing for the white male vote, I just think white males who didn't want to vote for Hillary were tending to go to Edwards over Obama... but we'll see, this is all speculative right now.

[Dan Geroe]

Bubby:
I think you're right. With Edwards gone, I think Hillary will have this thing practically wrapped up by the 5th. It may truly come down to race. If it does, I'll have a hard time forgiving her and her husband.

[Dan]

notgretchenbulova, LOL. You are plenty serious for me.

I simply meant that some actual serious people have concluded that this will benefit Clinton. As opposed to the looney toon, knee jerk, pro Clinton line that NLS has adopted of late.

I thought he had brokered a deal with Obama to be his attorney general?

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

I disagree.

The Edwards vote is above all a CHANGE vote.

This unites the CHANGE vote. Plain and simple...

[Idiot]

Dan,

I love how you oversimplify the obvious. But hey, I'm an idiot too.

And be nice to Ben. It's the first time in two years that I've agreed with him over 50% of the time.

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

CT: OBAMA 40, CLINTON 40

CA: CLINTON 38, OBAMA 33

Ha ha. No surge for Obama, eh?

Folks, Super Tuesday ain't gonna feel too super for Hillary "Rule Breaker" Clinton.

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

It's crystal clear who has the momentum, and who has the Joe-mentum.

That's got to be particularly troubling for the nasty, hypocritical spinners on the Clinton bandwagon, because try as they did, all their Floridian hot air ain't gonna matter.

Not one bit.

Potomac Primary is gonna seal the deal for Barack Obama, the next President of the United States!

[notgretchenbulova]

DiMV: Aren't those CA numbers really old? Haven't there been 4-5 polls since then showing it 10+ points?

[Idiot]

Doug In Mount Vernon,

Geesh. The CHANGE buzz was soooo pre-Nevada.

[Irish Brigade]

This is going to help Obama because he is going to endorse Obama.

People forget how suspiciously absent the Clintons were from the campaign trail in 2004. Hillary knew that if Kerry/ Edwards won she'd have to wait 8 years instead of 4. Her support of the 2004 ticket was unenthusiastic at best and Edwards remembers it.

Edwards has set himself up to play kingmaker here and I believe that he will use this position to help Obama.

[Doug]

Doug imv- do you have a link to polls?

[Dale Evans]

Regardless of where the Edwards' vote goes, I would like to thank Senator Edwards for talking for and about the less privileged in this country. Just because someone gets a nomination or gets elected doesn't make them the best candidate or right on all the issues. We need only look at the intellectually challenged occupant of the White House. Thanks Senator Edwards for talking about real Democratic issues.

[Idiot]

Very Classy, I must admit:

"Thank you John and Elizabeth Edwards"

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/

But here:

"Senator Kennedy Endorses Barak"

http://www.barackobama.com/index.php

Hillary's crew put thier offer of respect up AN HOUR AGO.

Obamatards, you may now comment and ban me to infinity...

[Doug]

NM Doug- this seems to work:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

And shut up idiot- some people have relatives who are actually retarded and you look like a 14 year old asshole when you do that.

[Idiot]

Doug,

I guess you're not a Wonkette contributor/commenter.

It's just an expression, relax.

Idiot

[RichmondDem]

Its a wash. His supporters evenly split or close enough to it it doesn't really make a difference.

Its a good thing we have a two-person debate now, though.

[Pete in Williamsburg]

I think it's clear that Obama and Clinton already know that Edwards is going to endorse Obama.

Around 10am this morning, Obama released a statement praising Edwards.

About 30 minutes ago, one of the Obama spokespeople was on MSNBC praising Edwards and his supporters. Then, Kiki McClean from the Clinton campaign was on CNN and wouldn't make such comments. She avoided any discussion of who Edwards will endorse and who would benefit most from the endorsement.

[Bwana]

Open Question-

By what date will the two major parties have defacto selected their nominee for 2008?

Obviously, the dejure date will be their nominating conventions...

[notgretchenbulova]

I think the Republicans have one now, but certainly by the end of Super Tuesday.

[Bubby]

You will have your answer in 5 days Bwana. Although it is possible that the Mittmentum will stagger on spending the kids inheritance for an additional news cycle.

[NotJimLarranaga]

"I can't speak for John. I can say this that, you know, being a southerner, being a rural American who's been completely devastated by the trade policies of the Clintons, I'm going to do everything in my power to make sure that he does not endorse Hillary Clinton."

-- Mudcat (friend of NLS)

[martha]

Everyone I know who was an Edwards supporter had Obama as their 2nd choice.

nls why does Billary hate rural America?

Best wishes to Elizabeth Edwards who has a NoVa connection, having graduated from high school in Alexandria.

[Interested Observer]

The only three Edwards supporters I know (I'm one of them, so small pool) are going for Obama....

Clinton v. McCain. Is it just me, or does her "experience on day one" argument seem a little, well, short? If you have no message besides that, then you are in trouble.

[ifthethunderdontgetya™³²®©]

I'm in Interested Observer's camp: Edwards supporter and donor, now going to vote for Obama.
~

[t]

Hopefully, he will sell off his toupee to pay off his campaign debts.