HILLARY WINS CONTESTED FLORIDA PRIMARY- UPDATED

After Obama's huge national ad buy that included Florida, HILLARY STILL STOMPS HIM AND HIS CAMPAIGN IS ON THE ROPES!!!!

HILLARY WAS THE NUMBER ONE VOTE GETTER OF THE NIGHT!!!!! Hillary gets more votes than McCain or Romney and Obama gets less than both major Republicans. Preview of November results?

McCain's victory tonight makes him the undisputed GOP frontrunner.  As I said earlier in the week, this bodes very well for Hillary.

Comments

[KC]

Oh NLS, please get back to your mother's teats.

[Rowhey]

You never stop spinning, do you?

Get ready for 20 ridiculous comments from Obamaniac Doug in Mount Vernon.

Dan, the closet Obamaniac, who insists he is an Edwards supporter will try to one-up Doug.

And we are sure to bring in a new Hillary-hater into the mix.

Here we go...

[Ann]

Anyone find a better site than the FL election site? http://enight.dos.state.fl.us/

[RichmondDem]

Are you trying to loose ALL credibility Ben? Don't become a Republican on us now!

[Adam Malle]

hahaha.........msnbc is not even rolling the dem results at the bottom of the screen sorry for your luck nls...the media dont care

Ann,

Cspan has not yet put up their AP link, will do so at 8pm when the panhandle closes.

Until now, recommend washingtonpost.com (they are feeding in AP info).

BTW. Only 7% reporting, showing 200,000 Dem voters. WOW.

[PM]

Rasmussen did its first poll in CT, and has it dead even. The poll was done the day after SC. The previous CT poll in that state was done about three weeks ago and had Clinton up by 14. So that's some positive news for Obama tonight.

[PM]

CNN appears to be a bit quicker. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#FLThey have 12% reporting. 52-29 spread for Ms. Clinton.

[Dan Geroe]

One, this is a delegate race, and what Hillary just one is a beauty contest in a state that only she visited.

Two, momentum has been hard to go from state to state this year, but it appears Obama may have some. A recent Rasmussen poll of CT shows a 14 point Clinton lead evaporating after the Kennedy endorsement.

Three, any momentum that Hillary could hope to gain from this will easily be overshadowed by the Republican contest. You know, the one that matters.

[Dan Geroe]

And what huge Florida ad buy? It was a national buy!

Serious, Ben, the spin here is getting too damned ridiculous.

[Dan Kachur]

I can't hold it in anymore. Either you are being entirely disingenuous or you are the stupidest person in all of politics, bar none.

Now I'll stand back and watch you call be names again.

[John]

Obama failed to win more than a third of the white vote in New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina - and now Florida. So much for being a new kind of candidate who can build the kind of multi-racial coalition needed to win the general election. He's clearly a niche candidate - and he's no JFK. And CNN just reported that Hispanic voters were 2:1 for Clinton - a stunning margin - so much for the power of Big Ted's endorsement ...!

[PM]

CNN just projected Clinton with the winner, with 24% reporting.

This will be more than a beauty contest. Most experts say there will be some seating arrangement. Otherwise, you've disenfranchised millions of voters.

[Tokatakiya]

This is ridiculous.

No one cares about Florida.

What you write no longer has any meaning.

Congratulations.

[Dan Geroe]

How can you take any primary seriously that is currently (24% in) giving Mike Gravel 4% of the vote? Especially when on other state has given him 1!

[Dan]

anon 7:35, that's cute. Trying to pre-emptively dismiss the comments you know will come regarding such a completely asisine post. And writing off anyone who ridicules nonsense like this post as a Hillary-hater sounds kinda familiar. Oh yeah! For the last seven years that is how the Bushies attempted to dismiss all legitimate criticism of the president.

I most certainly don't hate Senator Clinton. I abhor the disgusting, race baiting campaign she ran in South Carolina. But criticizing someone when they behave abysmally is not hatred.

Clinton is a serious person. These posts on her behalf are not. Quite frankly, one would guess they were put together by third graders.

They are amusing. And inconsequential. If I were a Clinton supporter they would make me irate because they aren't drawing her any support.I can imagine that undecideds would be pushed away from her by them.

I mean, really! Contested Florida Primary! I guess Clinton did contest it. The robo calls on her behalf. The Congressman campaigning for her. What you are highlighting is Clinton once again breaking her word and wanting to change the rules as it suits her.

And Ben, huge ad buy for Obama? Repeatig a lie doesn't mean people are so gullible they will believe it.

Ben, I have always enjoyed this blog. It has been a great resource and you have a talent for local political analysis. But you have turned it into the National Enquirer of the blogosphere.

Continue to support Clinton. But please use your talent to make a thoughtful case for her. This mindless nonsense is beneath you. And you are hurting the very candidate you hope to promote.

[Demo]

this is HUGE. Obama folks can claim that it doesn't matter because of the delegates BUT where is the explanation for why Hillary won and BHO lost??? It's one of the biggest states in the country and arguably the biggest prize in November.

[PM]

Oh, at 24% reporting, Hillary has 305000 votes. Obama won SC with 295000. It's going to be hard to explain to Floridians why their votes don't count at the national convention.

[Interested Observer]

So Ben - how much is Hillary Clinton's campaign paying you?

There is no media bounce from Florida for the Dems. McCain and Romney are getting all the publicity out of this. Hillary has had a disastrous few days. Between getting creamed in SC. The Kennedy endorse, her spouse race-baiting, I suppose this qualifies as good news - a win in a state where no delegates count.

BTW - wasn't it just a week ago that the Clinton Campaign was trashing Obama for a national ad buy that played in Florida. Before everything fell apart.

Clinton has expectations set high for Super Tuesday. Too high as she can't knock out either Obama or Edwards. The story ends up being that the didn't get coronated. One thing is for sure, if she can't win outright, the party will not give her the nomination at the convention.

Now that's dispassionate analysis not tainted by personal ambition, money, etc. And if she loses California, she is done, because that will be the story Wednesday morning.

[I.Publius]

Holy estrogen therapy, Batman -- Ben's delusions are getting worse by the day!

Let's all imagine what his headline would be if Obama were to win Florida...

"OBAMA WASTES MONEY IN MEANINGLESS FLORIDA RACE. HE'S OBVIOUSLY NOT READY FOR PRIME TIME"

Oh, and KC... Ben isn't on his mother's teat. He spends his day switching back and forth between Hillary's & Leslie's, then Hillary's, then Leslie's.

[Carrington]

What a joke, Ben.

How does it feel to be on the wrong side of history?

[Interested Observer]

PM - there is no way the Democratic Party is going to seat either Michigan or Florida delegates if those delegates are going to be the ones that decide who the nominee is. I am sure some deal will be brokered where they get to sit, but they will not be the ones to put anyone's candidacy over the top.

Neither Michigan or Florida was a free and open contest. Most candidates, except Hillary Clinton, honored the party's request that they not campaign there. Obama would have won Michigan had he been on the ballot and the election been contested. He never even showed in Florida. Anyone with an ounce of sense knows what happened down there since Hillary got creamed. Both contests are non-issues in terms of the nomination and the press will play them that way. They are all focused on the Republicans in Florida anyway.

[Interested Observer]

should be "since Hillary got creamed in SC Saturday."

[RichmondDem]

"Oh, and KC... Ben isn't on his mother's teat. He spends his day switching back and forth between Hillary's & Leslie's, then Hillary's, then Leslie's."

God thats a nasty image in my head now.

[TDH]

Interested Observer: I'm a lawyer with some knowledge of constl law. I'd simply ask you this. Would it be appropriate for the Democratic Party to institute a poll tax? Are there any limits on what rules a party may set? There will be a court challenge on the non-seating of delegates.

And as to the "campaigning", stop wasting our time with delusional statements.

is this the kind of analysis you're providing to New Media Strategies? Wow, New Media Strategies will fold and close its doors very quickly with crap analysis like this...

[PM]

oooh, this is interesting: in the CNN exit polls, the young vote pretty much split. 18-24, Obama was up

[PM]

damn buttons. Obama was up by 7 in the 18-24; Clinton won the 25-29 bracket -- by 14. Obama won the 30-34 by 4. So the oldster did pretty well in the age category. And that was all young voters. Among non-black young voters, Clinton wins by 13.

Obama looks to be doing his usual 30% or less among non-black voters, which Charlie Cook pointed out today was a real problem in the upcoming states.

[Doug]

and after tonight, the delegate count is... drumroll..
63 to 48

everyone take a deep breath and sit down and wait a week. Ben may have blown his load, but let's all be adults.

[I.Publius]

PM, that poll is quite consistent with what's been seen elsewhere. Hillary is doing well with middle aged and older Democrats -- the people longing for a triumphant return of Billary.

Obama leads with everybody else, especially young voters.

[novamiddleman]

If McCain keeps his Florida lead big big if he will probably wrap up on Super Tuesday... I don't want to waste my vote so I get to vote in the democratic primary instead... time for Hillary to speak

[What?]

PM,

How on earth can any entity force the DNC to accept Florida's delagates? Is the Democratic party a goverment entity?

No

Does it have specific rules, that all enities agree to, to become members?

Yes.

Had Hillary Clinton agreed to those rules, yes.

If she was so concerned about the "rights" of Florida voters why on earth did she not make a stink about this last year?

[Doug]

It's cute- MSNBC just called Hillary's win the Potempkin Village win. Nice imagery.

[John]

The "wrong side of history"? Yes, electing a female president is so passe. Get serious about winning elections - and realize that Barak Hussein Obama's appeal is generally limited to African-Americans, voters who have never had a full-time job (i.e. college students), and limousine liberals. That kind of coalition might work in Connecticut - but it won't work in Missouri, Ohio, West Virginia, or Florida.

[Dan]

Doug, LMAO. The Potemkin Village thing is hilarious. And an accurate description.

[Doug]

John, I promised myself I would stop commenting to other posters here, no matter how inane, but you are a racist bag of shit- have been since you started posting and I'll stand by that all day and night.

Good for Senator Clinton. I'll be proud to support her in November if she wins. I'll vote for Obama in VA in our primary. But you should shut your racist ass up and find some other sand box to play in.

Electing a woman would be absolutely fantastic. Electing an African American would be absolutely fantastic. Electing someone who can win - any freaking Democrat could this year - is going to be ABSOLUTELY fantastic, but you make me want to vote for John freaking McCain. Idiot.

[PM]

to what -- answer my hypothetical posed above. Could the Democratic Party legally enact a poll tax for its members? Or, what about refusing to allow a certain minority to join the party? Or counting women's votes as 0.8 of a male vote, Are there limits on party rules? I think there are.

If I'm a card carrying member of the FL Democratic Party, I think I have a legitimate lawsuit on my hands. That's all I'm saying.

I think it's worth thinking about. I'm going to call a few people in the national party that I know -- I bet some lawyers are working on the case right now.

Do I have a certain answer? No. But you can bet Hillary already has people working on it.

Another issue -- I wonder if the Kennedy endorsement helps Obama outside of, say, CT and Massachusetts. But then I always thought the Kennedys were not a meritorious family -- even in years I was wildly liberal. So I'm not a good judge. And I think it hurts Obama in the long run iof he gets the nomination.

[Dan]

John, either lay off the silly Hussein bit or go to work for right wing Republican talk radio. Geez!

[Doug]

Oh, I'm a middle aged white guy who lives in the western VA mountains and my whole family is from Missouri and we hunt and fish and love Jim Webb and his mountain family too, and so screw you a second time.

[Sam]

John - and so I assume this means we should just ignore Iowans? Get real.

[Demo]

Outside of delegates, all I ask Obama folks to do is explain how a million plus votes for Hillary in FL doesn't matter??? waiting.

[Sam]

PM,

the rules involving the constitutionality of what the DNC is doing are pretty odd. However, the DNC has a legal right to not sit the delegates from a state because the state violated a clear rule of the party, that rule was not designed to discriminate against a "protected class," and that rule was announced well in advance of the primary.

You are corerct in that the party could not impose a poll tax, exclude minorities, or count women as 0.8 votes.

[Doug]

Demo- it does matter. And damn the dem leadership in Florida for screwing up their primary. Michigan too. They really screwed up the flow of this primary and led to inanities like this. But of course her win matters.

[Dan]

PM, I think we can be certain Clinton has people "working on it". Any way to bend, break, subvert or rewrite the rules as long as it benefits her.

The Party has rules. There will be a credentials committee. They will decide who to seat. I don't look for Clinton to be able to steal it outright that way. That would be the greatest disaster since Chicago in 1968.

[PM]

Sam--I think that's the correct counter argument. And it's a strong one.

So the judge looks at me, and I say -- "but I'm just an ordinary voter, and I didn't want the primary moved -- why should I be penalized for something the state party leadership did?"

[Doug]

And what also matters is that in Michigan, 40% of voters came out, made the effort, to vote uncommitted against Sen. Clinton. 20% would mean little. 40% was a big story.

[Sam]

Demo - It doesn't matter because the voters in Florida didn't get a real look at the candidates. The race was run on voter interest+name recognition. There was no reason for voters who had made a decision months ago (when Clinton was "inevitable") to change their mind. There was no reason for college students to waste their time going home to vote or getting absentee ballots. There was no CAMPAIGN.

An election like this, without a campaign and without a GOTV effort and without a grassroots establishment for any candidate (although Hillary arguably got some from local congresspeople) is not an accurate reflection of the actually feelings of Florida Democrats. That situation favorst turnout amongst those who work 9-5 jobs (as in, white collar), stay-at-home moms, retirees, and more conservative dems who vote no matter what... these are all demographics that favor Hillary.

I'm not going to say that the votes don't matter at all, but they are not representative of the country, and they are not representative of Florida Democrats. Subsequently, they barely matter.

[Sam]

Doug and PM - this is something I'm unclear on. Was it the state parties that did this in Michigan and Florida, or was it the state governments? I thought the governments set the primary dates (though I could obviously be wrong)... if it's the state party, then yes, I am extraordinarily pissed that they did this. If it's the govs, I'm still pissed, but at least the voters in those states can punish them.

[What?]

Pm,

I just spilled hot coffee on my lap, I think I have a legitimate lawsuit on my hands. And I am absolutly sure that the Clinton campaign has all sorts of sleazy things up its sleave as well.

But mostly you are comparing rocks and apples. For a party to function it has to have rules that order how things are done.

What happens if the party decides it wants to do rotating 1st in the nation primary, but NH refuses to play along. Whats the party to do?

And what does the Kennedy endorsement give Obama? It gives him access to a machine that rivals or surpass the Clinton machine.

Does that win him the election? No of course not, but the Clinton machine is the main reason that Hillary is where she is now, so it certainly does not hurt Obama.

Example 1. Bill Richardson deciding who to indorse (we all know the Clinton conections)

"But Richardson considers Kennedy, who's long been respected by Hispanics, as "a mentor." In 1982, when Richardson ran for Congress for the second time -- he lost two years before -- Kennedy flew to Santa Fe and campaigned for him. "That might have been the reason I was elected,"

Example 2.

(From Steve Clemons)

Ted Kennedy has the largest machine in the Democratic Party. When I used to work in the Senate, I marveled at the Kennedy franchise -- at the number of people who had started with Kennedy, who then went on to different positions in government and the private sector . . .So this endorsement by Kennedy does have magnitude -- and bolsters Obama's position. The Clinton machine remains formidable and nationally deployed -- and may still have an edge. But there is no doubt that Kennedy's endorsement is not about Massachusetts nor about an aging white liberal -- it is about the thousands and thousands of followers who owe their careers to Ted Kennedy.

[Doug]

As I understand it, Sam, the State parties set it. Just Dems deciding it. Then, just in Florida, I don't know about Michigan, the Republican legislature saw that the dems were going to lose their delegates and they moved in a bill to block them from moving it back. The minority of dems in both houses in florida tried to defeat the bill and lost. In effect, the Florida dems thought they were being smart, got caught, stepped on their own cranks and got stuck with this mess.

I'm sure someone else can put it much more eloquently than me.

[PM]

Sam-- I don't know whether it was the state or the party that made the decision.

I just saw something interesting, that the CNN exit polls say those who made a late decision went to Clinton.

[What?]

Also, can someone please tell us why did not Clinton defend the poor Democratic voters of Florida when this thing was called?

Why did she sign the pledge?

[Doug]

Ben- why didn't you have the same headline about Barack in South Carolina. The vote counts are HUGE stories for November and the general election. We're talking about totals, party to party, that point to a landslide by any dem nominated. That's not being hopeful, that's knowing math.

[Sam]

Doug - Thanks. If it was the parties, I'd think the DNC should have found a better way to handle this. Perhaps finding a way to harshly punish the parties while not disenfranchising the voters.

That being said, it's pure hypocrisy that Clinton refused to DEMAND that the delegats be seated until last week. Absurd...

Of course, speaking of absurd, Ben's post gets more pathetic by the minute... Contested Florida primary? How much of the money Obama spent on that ad buy actually reached Florida? like $1,000? how much money did Hillary spend winning her endorsements there? Hillary got fewer votes than McCain in SC and Obama got more, is THAT a preview of November? Then saying this is would be equally absurd.

Ben, I do hope you realize how much respect you're losing right now.

[Sam]

I really feel like Ben's just becoming a massive parody of himself. He kind of reminds me of his favorite former Senator (Allen) who ran those Webb book ads, saw they didn't work, but INSISTED he knew what he was doing and kept running them cause eventually SOMEONE would listen to him, so he didn't see how each time he was just losing more people's interest and respect.... That's kind of what Ben's doing with his Hillary nonsense. Most people come to this site now to see what absurd thing he'll say next. I know I do, and I used to come here cause of the quality of his posts... sad indeed.

[Interested Observer]

TDH - You aren't a very good lawyer then. The courts have routinely ruled that the state has very limited authority over the actions of poltical parties. The parties, as private entities, are expected to set their own rules - especially on the selection of candidates. Florida and Michigan clearly violated pee-established party rules which precludes them from sending delegates to the national convention. No court is going to rule that the delegates be seated and the party is not going to accept their votes as the ones that determine the nominee at a contested convention. If you think otherwise, then you're a moron.

This is not a civil rights issue where a protected class was disenfranchised. It is a clear violation of party rules and the courts have always let the parties handle that themselves.

I don't happen to believe IA, NH, and SC have a special right to be first in line to choose the nominees, but the party comes up with the rules and everyone is supposed to play by them. In a court case, exhibit one will be the pledges signed by all candidates, including Hillary Clinton, promising not to campaign in Michigan or Florida and foreswearing their delegates. I don't think we will see it.

I've repeatedly said that some deal will be cut to seat those delegates. If Hillary has a majority of delgates and is the nominee, then of course they are in. Likewise if Obama has a majority. But if anyone actually needs their votes, then no way.

[joe]

Are you completely out of your mind?

Is this a parody?

Tell me you're kidding.

[Tokatakiya]

Delusions in larger font are still delusions, Shillary.

[phriendlyjaime]

I CAN'T READ THIS AT ALL, THE TYPE IS WAY TOO SMALL!!!

[John]

Ben: Keep up the great work. We need sites like this to counter the pro-Obama bias in the traditional media. Its a great way to let the talking heads in the media know who the grassroots really support - as shown by these great Florida results - even after Obama's sneaky ad buy!!

[RichmondDem]

Unfortunatley I don't think this is a parody. How can a guy who did a lot to help people like Warner, Kaine, and Webb get elected loose so much credibility this quickly? Please PLEASE Ben keep some of your credibility left for when Obama is the nominee so we can win Virginia.

[Carrington]

Did you mean to type "Contested Florida Primary?" Or was that a mistake?

What a joke, Ben. How embarrassing for you.

[not michael brown]

NLS has jokes tonight

[Not Larry Sabato]

OK, the "losing credibility" people are actually starting to piss me off now. I'm supporting my candidate, and giving you a forum to support yours. If you are offended, go to another site until the primaries are over, I will support Hillary until and unless she drops out at any point. Until then I am still Hot4Hill, OUR NEXT PRESIDENT

[partisandwich]

"I'm just an ordinary voter ..."

But why would you assume that you have an absolute right to vote in a party primary? The Democratic Party, and membership in said party, isn't enshrined in the Constitution. The nomination process is a party affair, and short of disenfranchising protected classes--as IO points out--doesn't a party get to set its own rules about to conduct it?

I'm not a lawyer, so.

[John]

Heh - apparently the Obama campaign is mortified by the size of Hillary's win. They really thought the Kennedy endorsement was going to hold her under 45%. It seems like the irrational exuberance fueling the Obama candidacy might finally be subsiding and the adults in the Democratic party can start preparing for November. Go Hillary!

[John]

The "losing credibility" whiners are ridic. They get their asses spanked online and their candidate is on the verge of collapsing ... if Hillary's impending string of victories bother you that much, move to Illinois. You can always voter for Obama when he runs for re-election in 2010.

Shouldn't the fact that you actually are "losing credibility" be pissing you off?

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

There's an easy correlation to make in Bens' posts---the bigger the font of the Billary posts, the more worried he is.

This post is HYSTERICAL!!

Now, on to the states where delegates are actually at stake, and where there was actually A CAMPAIGN going on...

You're losing credibility because what you say has to make sense. How the hell....how the hell is Obama's campaign "on the ropes" as you describe? That's just stupid and ridiculous. It makes zero sense. If you made some astute observations rather than old style politics that is senseless then maybe most people on here wouldn't be laughing at you. You are a joke when you make posts like this.

And hey, I don't see any posts on here about Gerry Connolly far outraising Leslie Byrne....where's your "analysis" on that.

If this over the top clinton love fest continues, which I fear it will, I'm just going to stop reading this blog.

Okay, how can Richmond Democrat, supposedly a lawyer, at least twice misspell "lose" as "loose" in the comments on one post? Once is a typo, twice is an idiot.

[RichmondDem]

I'm not a lawyer. I'm not The Richmond Democrat, I'm Richmond Dem. I'm not J.C. And yes, I can misspell on occasion. Sue me. At least I type in a name when I comment.

[TDH]

Obama finally returned the rest of Rezko's money after news organizations called him on it a few days ago. http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/01/29/politics/p165430S79.DTL&type=politics

Note the understated sarcasm in the AP report -- the announcement seemed designed to receive minimal coverage.

I recall that when Ted Kennedy announced he was dumping Joan, he waited for the day of the Iranian hostage release. The Post buried the story way back in the A section.

[novamiddleman]

Let me step in here for a minute and provide some balance

A post Sam made earlier was very interesting

Demo - It doesn't matter because the voters in Florida didn't get a real look at the candidates. The race was run on voter interest+name recognition. There was no reason for voters who had made a decision months ago (when Clinton was "inevitable") to change their mind. There was no reason for college students to waste their time going home to vote or getting absentee ballots. There was no CAMPAIGN.

An election like this, without a campaign and without a GOTV effort and without a grassroots establishment for any candidate (although Hillary arguably got some from local congresspeople) is not an accurate reflection of the actually feelings of Florida Democrats. That situation favorst turnout amongst those who work 9-5 jobs (as in, white collar), stay-at-home moms, retirees, and more conservative dems who vote no matter what... these are all demographics that favor Hillary.

Now on Super Tuesday there are 22 states voting

Realistically how much GOTV and Campaigning will there actually be.

[t]

Any one of you punks want a piece of Ben, you are gonna have to go through t first.

Punks.

[John]

Florida doesn't exist in a vacuum. Despite the biased media coverage following Obama's SC win and the Kennedy endorsement, Obama couldn't even win more than one third of the vote in Florida. Pathetic! CNN exit polls confirm he is a candidate with limited appeal - basically the candidate of college kids, African-Americans and the chattering class on MSNBC. Meanwhile, Hillary wins the most reliable voters (over the age of 60), white Catholics, Hispanics, and working class voters. She's a juggernaut - and the online Obama nuts aren't going to change that.

[Curious George]

All kidding aside, can someone please tell me how anyone can count on the 18-24 year old vote??

I've been around a long time & heard the siren song of the "youth vote" before...They just don't show that well in general elections and, them what does, usually reflect their parents.

They've left us at the altar before...McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis, etc...

[notroberthurt]

As for the legal arguments.....I might suggest for those interested to look back at a constitutional law case from the 1940s.

It's been a while since I was in law school, but I remember that there was a case about the Democratic primaries in Texas.

The Democrats declared the Party a "private organization" and did their best to keep the primary limited to white voters.

The Supreme Court issued a ruling, but I can not remember the exact wording. For some reason, I believe the Court rejected the "private organization" rationale, but I may be mistaken.

That case is pertinent if the party or a campaign argues they are a "private" organization.

[Sam]

Curious George - youth vote shot up in 2004 (although it still wasn't great)... also, people are less likely to vote in primaries than general, so the high youth turnout in the primaries so far is why people are touting it.

novamiddleman - you'll be shocked. There are heavy ad buys going on, plus massive organizations that have been building on the ground. Not to mention that the various endorsers in teh states are offering their apparatuses to their candidates. There will actually be a lot of campaigning and get out the vote efforts.

[Sam]

notroberthurt - that's a valid point, but someone can still be disenfranchized legally if their state violates set rules, as I stated before, that are stated far in advance and not designed to discriminate against a protected class. Similarly, the federal government would be allowed not to seat electors in the general election for the electoral college if the state decided to hold its election on October 15th.

[Dan Geroe]

http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2008/1/29/195121/900/14#c14

From MSNBC:
Apparently, Obama actually won on the vote cast today. Hillary won based on all the early voting. If that is so, it bodes well for Obama.

[Curious George]

Notroberthurt: Give yourself an A. The courts held just as you said. However, I thought they also noted the primary was tantamount to election. But if they use the state electoral system, I don't see how the party can claim its rules trump an otherwise legal state law. But heck, who knows with the jerks on the Sup. Ct. now?

you're an idiot and lose more credability by the day with this crap.....between the leslie loving and this....it's terrible

i generally like your stuff...except when you do crap like this

[Curious George]

Good point Sam but I have a hard time seeing how the courts will let party rules disqualify a state (ignoring what they did in FL in 2000). I just hope we don't screw the pooch by disqualifying a whole state or two if we can do it...Looks like bad politics to me.

Oh well, as Annie said "The sun'll come up tomorrow"...That is if we don't shoot ourselves in the foot will and can throw theese rascals out

[Kenton]

Anon 11:14,

Nothing says "credability" like spell check.

[RichmondDem]

Whats up with the spelling Nazis tonight?

[NotJimLarranaga]

Ben, you have a factual error in your post about "a huge Florida ad buy" for Obama. There was no huge Florida ad buy.

Actually, there was no Florida ad buy for any candidate. If you look at the logs..Obama has purchased National Cable spots through NCC (National Cable Communications). As you know, when you buy a "national" spot, they cannot exclude a state. This is not massive in anyway. In fact, they only purchased two networks: CNN and MSNC.

I know you're committed to keeping your site fair - so I look forward to you updating your post. Thanks.

[notroberthurt]

Glad to see I learned something all those years ago in law school.

I think it would be a "jump ball" with the current Court. I don't know that anyone can effectively posit what they may do after their Bush v. Gore decision. That decision shocked any attorney who follows the institution. So I wouldn't want to hazard a guess as to what they would do if this landed at the Court.

While it would be interesting for legal minds, I can't help but believe it would be a disaster for the Democratic Party. If the nomination came down to seating FL and MI and it went to the Court, well I don't think a lot of Americans approve of nominees selected by judicial fiat. There's something that smells "Sovietesque" about courts deciding elections. See Bush v. Gore. I can't help but think that would be a huge problem for whoever the nominee is in November.

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

John needs to look up the definition of the word "juggernaut" and understand that it is not a flattering word to use to describe your candidate.

That said, she may be.

[Greg Kane]

perhaps you can up the size of the font a bit and you'll look more convincing

Saying Obama contested Florida is not just dishonest, it is an out and out lie.

The DNC said candidates are free to run national ads, and Hillary could have done so to.

Please correct your post so that the information you are presenting is the truth. You should really be above lying.

And Kenton, lacking anything substantive to say, lobs a meaningless "you can't spell!" attack.

Go to bed, son. You have school bright & early.

I wish all the people who keep threatening to stop reading and posting would do so -- it would make the posts easier to read.

grasping at straws ben, nobody is even paying attention to those results unless it comes down to delegate count.

[Dan Kachur]

Aww, poor Ben. Doesn't like people criticizing him.

Perhaps you're not cut out to be a blogger, Ben.