Obama v. Clinton by the Numbers

117,599 voted in Nevada
239,000 voted in Iowa
284,194 voted in New Hampshire
530,422 voted in South Carolina

(Total Voted 1,169,125)

Yet according to the Obama people- those are the only states that matter so far.  How does Florida's "meaningless" primary compare?

Florida Turnout- 1,683,566 (with 98% of precincts in).

We are headed to a crossroads here.  Do we allow these almost 1.7 million people's voices to be heard at the Democratic National Convention through Delegates?  Hillary says Yes, Obama says No.

Why is Obama so determined to tell 1.7 million people who voted in a Democratic Primary that their votes don't count?

If Obama is nominated by refusing to seat Florida and Michigan at the National Convention, he will not only lose to the Republicans, but he will destroy the Democratic Party in the process.

To paraphrase Obama, there are not Clinton states or Obama states, there is only the United States. And in the United States- all 50 states get to vote and be represented at the national conventions.

More people voted today than have voted in all the states that Obama wants to seat at the convention combined so far.

Comments

[NotJimLarranaga]

Hillary says Yes and Obama says No??

Howard Dean says no. And says he will not seat them under any circumstance.

[GAida]

if Michigan and Florida really wanted their votes to count, then they would follow the party rules.

regardless of their participation in the convention that 1.7 million will still vote in the general election and they will vote for whomever if the nominee.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Well, NJL, we are lucky the DNC Chair doesn't make the final decision on this- his ruling goes first to the credentials committee, and then the floor of the convention. The Delegates elected in the unchallenged states (the other 48) will make the final decision on this.

Lucky for Florida and Michigan one Presidential candidate (Hillary Rodham Clinton) has asked her Delegates in the other 48 states to seat those states.

[Jester]

... because changing the rules after the primary is over isn't sketchy at all. Not one bit.

As a tangent, I hear "The Prince" is a great book full of upstanding morals. I'm sure both Clintons have it memorized.

[NotJimLarranaga]

You are factually wrong, NLS. Howard Dean appoints the majority of the credential commiittee. 0% chance this makes it to the floor.

Let me ask you this, if Hillary cares so much for the voices of Florida and Michigan why didn't she fly into Michigan and give them some attention with a victory speech on that night?

[Not Larry Sabato]

NJL, you have a conflict here, so either disclose it or stop discussing this issue.

[Greg Kane]

not bad Ben - some half truths, a little misdirection and a fantacy scenario .... spin it up and spit it out. You might get picked up by the Clinton campaign after all

[Idiot]

C'mon, NLS. Geesh.

It's not like Florida made a difference in the last two elections. Why bother now with inclusion and a 50-state strategy?

Besides, Hillary got more Florida votes than Obama and Edwards COMBINED. It really was a beauty contest, after all. And if two men together cannot beat a women, then those delegates don't deserve to be counted. Amen.

[Ha]

If Obama had won, would Hillary still be calling for the delegates to be seated?

No.

Therefore what Hillary is doing is dishonest and despicable.

[Sam]

Ben, this would all have credibility if Hillary came out and started demanding that these delegates be seated when the DNC decision was fist made. The fact that she waited until last week just makes purely transparent what all reasonable people know: this is nothing but pure, simple politics. It's not wrong for her to fight for her delegates, but it's hypocrisy for her to pretend she's doing this out of some selfless desire for equality and full representation.

[RicJohn]

Ok, this is just madness regarding the Democratic presidential primary. Florida was stripped of it delegates because the STATE LEGISLATURE and party leaders decided they wanted to leapfrog the primary calendar for their own gain. The Republican party only allowed half the alloted delegates to the eventual winner, who tonight was Senator McCain.

Senator Clinton has every right to tout the fact that people voted for her, but to say that this is some sort of mandate for her is seriously misreading the results. She won Florida by a 50%-33% margin over Senator Obama even though all the polls showed she would win by 22 percentage points or more. Imagine what would have happened if both Obama and Edwards had actually been able to campaign there. She benefitted from her name ID and the fact that she already had an artificial lead in the state.

Ben, you say she received a "record" amount of votes in the primary. So what? There won't be any delegates seated, and there SHOULDN'T be, because no one was able to effectively campaign there like the GOP contenders. You can't change the rules after the vote to suit you. Besides this fact, she needs to win the state in the GENERAL election most importantly, and if Senator McCain is the nominee, she will not win the state. Independents DESPISE her, and they have been more supportive of Senators Obama and Edwards. She can't shake this stigma off because she really hasn't been running a clean campaign. She also needs to depend less on her husband to spread campaign dirt and focus more on her own accomplishments.

"Obama is nominated by refusing to seat Florida and Michigan at the National Convention, he will not only lose to the Republicans, but he will destroy the Democratic Party in the process."

Senator Clinton and her husband have marginalized African-American voters once they panicked at the threat of Obama's candidacy. Democrats will lose close swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, and maybe even New Jersey (a state that will vote for a Republican like McCain) in the general election if many African-Americans choose to stay at home, and she will look like a fool for dividing the party and losing states that even Kerry won. Senator Clinton has lost a lot of goodwill by the racial propoganda from Bill Clinton. I guess African-Americans were fine when they were supporting him, but heaven forbid one ever challenges his wife.

A Rasmussen Poll released today in CT put both Obama and Clinton at 40%, and he erased her 49%-19% edge in California to 38%-33%. That doesn't look like a coronation to me.

[Sam]

I might also add we don't KNOW what the voters of Florida actually think. Many who would have voted stayed home. Many who would have voted absentee didn't bother. A situation like this favors turnout amongs retirees, stay-at-home moms, and white collar workers who are all demographics that favor Hillary. The young, the blue collar workforce, and African Americans tend not to vote in these kinds of primaries. What do you know, that's Obama's core support.

The fact is, we will never know who would have won Florida had there been a real race there. Remember, when he began campaigning there, Obama was down big in both Iowa and South Carolina as well.

To say that we should seat delegates chosen in a phony election just defies logic to me. If you want to seat Florida, fine, but force them to have another primary first, and one that follows the rules. Same with Michigan.

Note that this is not unheard of. DC held a primary in 2004 that the DNC stripped of delegates because it was held before New Hampshire, so DC had caucuses later on which chose their seated delegates.

[Bacchus]

Come on people, I want to start seeing some odds on a McCain-Hilary general... currently Ladbrokes in London has Hillary at 11/8 and the MAc at 2/1...

[Dan]

Obama v. Clinton by the numbers:

Obama 63
Clinton 48

Ben, thanks for pointing out that more folks live in Florida than in some smaller states that have already chosen their delegates. Very insightful analysis.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Why did Florida go early? Because primary dates are set by state law. The Republican General Assembly picked the date and the Republican Governor signed it. Florida Democrats should not be punished for something they couldn't even control.

[Dan]

Ben, are the other fellas from the Clinton campaign sleeping in this morning. I have become accustomed to these silly posts being accompanied by a chorus of strident rote repetition of nonsensical Clinton talking points.

Where is the standard attack on Senator Kennedy's appearance? As an old somewhat overweight Irish guy myself, I can tell you those gratuitous attacks make me feel oh so positive about Clinton.

[Dan]

Ben, Sam gave the proper answer in his 02:24 comment. Florida can hold caucuses later on to select legitimate delegates. In a proper process within Party rules. Where ALL candidates participate, not just one.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Dan, Iowa and SC had similar numbers of Democratic voters in the 2004 general election. Yet SC had double the turnout of Iowa this year. Why? Iowa has a caucus, South Carolina had a primary.

So when you say FL should have a do over with a caucus, you are really suggesting that Florida substitute a high turnout primary for a low turnout caucus. If that cuts turnout in half (which it will) you will be silencing the voices of almost a million Floridians who came out to vote.

Is voter supression what Obama means when he says "hope"?

[Interested Observer]

yeah Ben, the Republicans forced an early primary on the Democrats in order to ensure that Florida's delegates wouldn't count.

The Democrats didn't propose being early to try and be more influential in the face of DNC opposition.

Your "analysis" on this one has another name "lying"

More importantly, you and Hillary were hammering Obama foe a national CNN ad buy that happened to also play in Florida in violation of the campaign's promises not to campaign there. Last time I checked only one candidate campaigned in MI and FL, despite their word that they wouldn't. That is called "hypocrisy" or also "cheating".

If MI and FL are going to decide this election, then they will not be seated. If Hillary goes over the top by cheating, everyone will know she bullied her way to the nomination. That will hurt her legitimacy in the general election.

[Interested Observer]

msnbc said Obama won the vote of people who actually voted yesterday.

Even though what amounts to the "issues" in Florida was Hillary running around saying she believed in Florida and everyone else saying they supported the rules that Florida violated.

[Dan]

Ben, Interested Observer is absolutely correct. And what I am suggesting is NOT a "do over" as you imply. For it to be a do over a legimate process would have to have taken place. In Florida, no delegate selection process has taken place yet.

All this lying and breaking of pledges and trying to change rules after the fact are not winning Clinton any supporters. I suspect you will be seeing that on the 5th.

As I said before, it is fine that you support her. Why don't you actually try to make a case for her. I don't know what the Clinton campaign is paying you, but it isn't worth the damage you are doing to yourself. Give the money back and reclaim your soul!

[Not Larry Sabato]

I haven't taken a dime from Hillary, nor will I. Nominating the most electible candidate to end the Bush years is not something.a price tag can be put on.

[Va Blogger]

"And in the United States- all 50 states get to vote and be represented at the national conventions."

This actually isn't true. The national party sets their own rules. They can exclude any state for any reason. And they happen to have a good reason: Florida and Michigan broke the rules.

[Dan]

Ben, I take you at your word about not being paid by Clinton for this stuff. The question remains, why publish such patently ridiculous stuff. We are not talking about being just a little over the top here. This stuff has been bat shit crazy. And that is probably a major understatement.

Personally, I thought too much was being made of the Kennedy endorsement. It is a big deal, of course, but I certainly didn't think it was decisive.

The increasingly hysterical tone of the Clinton campaign leads one to the conclusion that they are running scared. They must perceive that the revulsion at their behavior in South Carolina combined with the Kennedy endorsements have done real damage to them. I am more than a little surprised that they aren't reacting more coolly. Panic is an ugly thing. It will be fascinating to monitor their reaction on the 6th if Super Tuesday goes the way I suspect it will.

Electable? Hillary electable? In what Bush '04 states does she beat McCain? Are they enough to make up for the loss of Wisconsin and Minnesota?

The *only* thing that can drive the Republican base to the polls in November is the prospect of a President Hillary. And the flip side of that will be vast numbers of Democrats neutral enough about McCain (and/or still furious with Billary for its slimy campaign) to stay home Nov. 3rd.

The real question is whether Mark Warner can overcome the re-energized Republicans and depressed Democratic turnout to pull out a squeaker. And for the first time in her political career, Leslie Byrne will worry about somebody else being a drag on her.

That's what you should be worried about, NLS: how far down will Hillary Clinton drag the Democratic Party this November?

[Demo]

BIG WIN!!!

Obama folks - I agree with you that this will not add to the delegates. BUT don't you think you're candidate has some problems that even after his big win in neighboring SC, he can't do better than finish 18% behind Clinton??

[Jon]

Democratic turn out in Florida was 12-15% bellow Repbulican turn out.

IN EVER OTHER PRIMARY/CAUCUS STATE TURNOUT HAS BEEN DOUBLE!!!

Now why in a 50/50 state like Florida was turnout Republican turnout 12-15% higher than Democratic turnout?

[dcBill]

This garbage is why I don't come here so often anymore Ben.

[Doug]

I'll say it again, the way everything is going if either Obama or Hillary are the candidate (assuming no major mess ups) we are looking at a landslide in November.

I've always said Hillary would win the delegate count. It's not trending that way- Obama does have the big mo no matter what folks say here -but she just plain has the numbers after all is said and done. But, the BIG STORY is not the primary. The big story is going to be, will be, how amazed we are in November when we thought the red red south was unwinnable will go completely blue in the electoral count.

I really like John McCain, but when he gets to debates and talks about having no clue on the economy, how all our jobs are lost and who cares, how he's the same as Hill on amnesty and outsourcing, and he wants to take us to war against Speed Boat Persia, he's going to sell as well as an SUV with $10/gal gas.

Ben- how bout you break down some history in the numbers- how many people (independants) are voting for the dem candidates (whoever they are) in the Southern States. After next Tuesday you are going to see the harbinger of November. And in November the economy is going to be in it's third quarter of recession.

This whole Clinton rouse smells like George W. Bush stealing the 2000 election. Democrats are better than trying to steal elections. But then again, we know Hillary is a Clinton first, a Democrat second, and will do anything to become president.

[Jon]

There was a 24% decrease in Democratic turnout bellow the Democratic turnout in SC.

Based on the numbers that Democratic turnout exceeded Republican turnout in SC.

[Dan]

Demo, welcome back. Pleased to see you making another absurd comment.

The results in Florida shouldn't surprise anyone. All the candidates agreed not to campaign in Florida. All except one kept their word. The liar who campaigned there got more votes. Big shocker there! Other than to Clinton spinners, this is just the latest in a series of such moves by Clinton. The lack of integrity seems to be catching up with her. It will overtake her shortly after Super Tuesday.

Isn't it a hoot that even though she didn't remove her name from the ballott in Michigan, as all the other candidates had the integrity to do, 40% of the voters went to the trouble to come out and vote for uncommitted.

Clinton is a tremendously divisive force both in the party and in the nation. She is the candidate the Republicans want. And with good reason. She will be a disaster down ballot in many sections of the country.

Fortuately, she seems to be shooting herself in both feet. For the sake of the Democratic Party maximizing this year's opportunity, I am grateful for that.

[Jon]

But Regardless, What Clinton needed from this is for the Press to play along, And with Headlines like this:

"Much Ado About No Delegates"

It warms my heart.

[Doug]

Jon:

MSNBC's Andrea Kopple: "It looks like Senator Clinton was elected mayor of the Potempkin Village."

Good funnies.

[PM]

Just noticed that Maxine Waters endorsed Clinton. This is important in California. http://rawstory.com/news/2007/Liberal_California_Dem_endorses_Clinton_0129.html

[Jon]

Again, just to make my point clear:

1. Republicans voted at a rate 12% higher than Democrats where in all the other primaries Dems have been voting at a much much higher rate. (24% decrease in Democratic parcipitation from SC).

2. All that matters is the headlines . . . where's the headlines? OH yeah,
"Much Ado About No Delegates"

3. Florida has half of New York living there, and they are all from the Demographic that has been supporting Clinton the whole time.

4. IF CLINTON REALLY CARED ABOUT THOSE POOR VOTERS IN FLORIDA WHY ON EARTH DID SHE SIGN THE PLEDGE IN THE FIRST PLACE!!!!!!!?

Is this not hypocrisy to you people? Does this not simply shine a light on Hillary's OPPORTUNISTIC habit of saying one thing and doing another . . . you know like being for the war until the base cant stand it anymore (she certainly showed her true colors when she gave the standing ovation for the surge the other night!)

[TDH]

To those who think the FL and Michigan citizens should have no say -- it's totalitarian thinking. The big people (i.e., the state legislatures and the party central committees) should not be determining who gets a say. That's what has been done in Communist regimes.

[Adam Malle]

This line says it all!!

"This move on Senator Clinton's part is the most weasel-like posture she's taken this entire campaign"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joseph-a-palermo/hillary-clinton-declares-_b_83969.html

[PM]

More campaign news.

http://www.suntimes.com/news/766605,CST-NWS-obama30.article

The latest dump of Rezko-related cash by the Democratic presidential contender is $72,650, bringing the total Obama is giving away to $157,835.*** Obama's chief presidential rival, Democrat Hillary Clinton, had accused Obama of not being straight about the money he's received through Rezko and Rezko's fund-raising efforts.
The former first lady's attacks came after the Sun-Times broke a story about Rezko possibly illegally donating money to Obama through at least one straw donor.

[Jon]

Hmmmmm, TDH should we let the citizens set the rules for the primaries?

How are we going to do that?

How bout this every year we are going to let each state do a referendum to set each party's primary or caucus date.

Even the Rs punished Florida and Michigan, taking away half of their delegates!

[Dan]

TDH, I'll file your post in the greatest hits section.

Opposing Clinton's attempt to steal an election is hardly undemocratic. It is just the opposite.

That is a classic tactic you have employed however. Accusing those who oppose Clinton's lying and cheating of being totalitarians attempting to disenfranchise the people of Florida and Michigan.

If you want people to buy this stuff you will have to make the lies more believable.

[Jon]

Heh, yep the Obama camp is smart!

While Hillary is trying to dominate the news cycle, dump the money.

Anyone interested in a full account of the Rezko stuff go here:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/29/171056/015/838/445627

All you other people interested in scoring cheap points, ok well keep doing it . . . the news media doesn't care (dont you know they love Obama)

[PM]

Good news for polling fans. Pollster.com has finally added polls for many of the Super Tuesday states into its easy-to-use column on the first page. http://www.pollster.com/ With their lists you can see trends. The two-bit states still don't have many polls, though. And they omit TN.

[Jon]

Pm,

I have been linking to that for a while now. You know when you said there was no trend to Obama in CA.

[TDH]

Dan: Please explain how disenfranchising voters isn't totalitarian. And stop dribbling spittle on the keyboard.

[Jon]

TDH,

answer my question.

You know because there are adults (which you obviously are not) who have to make the rules and make sure that things happen.

We all cant live in "fairy-tale" land.

[PM]

http://gawker.com/5002692/obama-gets-the-only-endorsement-that-really-counts

Whomever you're supporting, this is reallllly funny. Scroll down to the picture of Hillary.

[Jon]

And for the conservatives perspective:

If Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee, they will argue, persuasively, that Romney may have been a better GOP nominee. Against Obama, McCain is the old man versus the young man, the old way versus the new. Romney, at least, can make a much stronger argument against Obama’s soft-headed economics.

"But if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, then we really do have one of the great national contests on our hand — and the McCain haters will have no choice but to get on board."

Daniel Casse, www.commentarymagazine.com

[Jon]

Ohhhh TDH, are you out there?

How are the parties supposed to manage the primary process?

What if Florida had decided it wanted to have its primary in December?

What if the party decides that it wants to have a rotating first in the nation schedule and NH tries to preempt that compromise?

What would you do? That is practical, I mean.

[John]

Ben - you gotta play by the rules. You want the FCDC to operate by the rules, so why shouldn't the national party do the same? Florida and Michigan broke the rules in full knowledge of what they were doing. In soccer, they'd get a red card. It becomes an unfair contest if their delegates get seated when Obama had no chance to win in Michigan and played by the rules in Florida. This is the presidency we're talking about - not a town beauty contest. I don't want a nominee who gets to the top by going outside of the process, and if Hillary's MI and FL delegates are seated, that will be the end result. I like Hillary a great deal, but she has to play by the rules like everyone else.

[PM]

Jon: I'm not sure what the original reference was, but since December's polls there has been very little movement in the CA polls overall. The last two polls in December gave Clinton 19 and 14 point leads. The most recent CA poll listed there gives Clinton a 17 point lead. Rasmussen two weeks ago gave her a slender 5 point lead.

All that aside, I think most would agree there is a new landscape not even the experts understand. Does Kennedy help Obama? Does Waters help Clinton?

[Jon]

Pm,

I have provided this link from that web site many times over the last couple of days:

http://www.pollster.com/08-CA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

There have been 9 polls since December, 8 of them in January . . . If I am reading the chart correctly!

Admittedly I am dumb so I might be missing something (no snark intended, all honesty)

[TDH]

Jon:

Only totalitarian states disenfranchise voters.

So, Howard Dean gets to cut off the rights of a million voters? Fine. If that's how you think, fine.

In any basic game on the playground, even a nine year old would agree to a do over.

[Kevin]

"In any basic game on the playground, even a nine year old would agree to a do over."

Playground games = Presidency of the United States...yep that sounds about equal.

NLS is the new Baghdad Bob

[Jon]

TDH,

You keep reinforcing this image in my head of you are a 14 year old boy.

Tell me it aint so?

All the adults (including Hillary Clinton) decided the best way to keep any other states from moving their primary was to take Florida's delegates away.

So in that case Hillary Clinton is an opportunistic totalitarian.

But, please answer my question, How on earth would YOU try to keep an orderly primary process.

[Jon]

But on another note:

Wow!!!

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/01/30/edwards_drops_bid.html

Edwards drops bid.

[Jon]

ummm, complete tea leave reading here . . . but who does this benefit?

Whose news cycle is this eating into?

[Jon]

whoops tea leaf, tea leaf!

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

You have got to be joking. This has become the issue in the Democratic primary?

Ben, Ben, Ben. Hillary agreed to the rules. She can't decide to change them mid-stream because it's now to her advantage.

Plain and simple.

And NO ONE can argue that Barack Obama could not have won Florida were it a competitive race with an actual campaign. As it was, given the "Billary inevitability storyline, I think it's still concerning that 50% of voters did not choose her, and 33% chose Barack.

Give it up.

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

The CHANGE vote unites!

[Ann C.]

The Dem rules posted online say:

PARTICIPATION
A. Participation in the delegate selection process shall be open to all voters who wish to participate as Democrats.
SCHEDULING OF DELEGATE SELECTION MEETINGS
A. All official Party meetings and events related to the national convention delegate selection process, including caucuses, conventions, committee meetings, filing dates, and Party enrollment periods, shall be scheduled for dates, times and public places which would be most likely to encourage the participation of all Democrats, and must begin and end at reasonable hours.
http://www.demconvention.com/a/2007/03/delegate_select.html

How is this consistent with denying FL voters their rights?

[Dan]

TDH, please allow me to stop "drooling on the keyboard" -as you so crudely put it- long enough to agree with you. Disenfranchising millions of voters is indeed totalitarian. By your definition, Senator Clinton is a totalitarian because that is precisely what she is attempting to do. Disenfranchise millions of voters by stealing delegates which she has not won in any legimate contest.

Newsflash: if anyone missed it. The current talking point is that Clinton is trying to "protect" the voters whose votes she is trying to steal.

What rank hypocrisy!

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

OBAMA AND CLINTON ARE TIED IN CONNECTICUT!

Even I didn't expect that!

[Dan]

Son of a bitch! Edwards drops out! One of these years my first choice will make it as far as the Virginia primary.

I understand Elizabeth hasn't been on the campaign trail much of late. I fear that her health may have taken a turn for the worse. I'd encourage everyone to keep her in their thought and prayers.

[Rowhey]

The real issue here is that Hillary Clinton can't keep her word. She knew the deal with respect to Florida. She gave her word on it.

And now, she is trying to renege on that deal with all of this horse shit about getting Florida delegates seated. The fact this is even an issue speaks volumes about how close the race really is.

And, sorry, Doug, but if Hillary is the nominee, it is John McCain who will win. The man is an American Hero. He is conservative but with pragmatic trappings. He is tough but fair.

What can Hillary really deliver? She botched health care reform in '93. Her personality is as rough as sandpaper. She grates on one's nerves.

Most of all....Hillary is a crook. She is a crony to the corporate America that you so vehemently oppose.

How can a crook win against an honest American hero?

[Doug]

How? War and economy. I agree with you, but McCain can't win the general.

[Sam]

TDH, yeah a do-over. If the Florida party came out and said "ok, we'll have a do-over on February 20th" or some date like that, guess what, the DNC would let them.

[Rowhey]

Doug,
The numbers are there for McCain in the general. Look at them.
He's ahead or tied in all of the polls.

Hillary because of her co-presidency is for all intensive purposes an incumbent. She has horrible positive/negative numbers.

And, I don't think the American people will swallow the notion of the "two-fer." Frankly, the whole idea of a co-presidency is just plain weird. And, people aren't comfortable with it.

On the issue of the war, McCain pushed the idea of the surge. And, the surge has been working.

On the issue of the economy, McCain is well positioned to deal with a host of issues there -- from earmarks to taxes.

It will come down to trust in the end. And, no one trusts the Clintons.

[Hon. Jewington Analplay]

Are any of you still reading this??

Don't you have some phone calls to make?

[James Young]

I'm not usually one to comment upon the internal disputes of the other Party. I usually figure it's your business, not mine. Nevertheless, I think I can here, because it's a question of objective criteria.

Very disappointing, Ben. You are always a guy I have respected because, whatever our ideological disagreements --- and there are many --- we have found accord in our respect for the rules and protecting the integrity of the process. Yet now, it seems that you are willing to forgive those states' disregard of well-established Party rules in order to benefit your preferred candidate.

I think you owe your friends and/or readers an explanation.

[Jon]

WHY COMPETITION MATTERS

Check the math: Yesterday, in Florida, Clinton “won” by 17 points a non-competitive contest--in the literal sense that they didn’t compete, not in the sense that it was a blowout, though it was; that margin is eerily similar to her 16-point “victory” in the other non-competitive battle in Michigan. Now compare those results with her margins in the other four, truly competitive primaries and caucuses: Iowa, -8; New Hampshire, +3; Nevada, +6, and South Carolina, -27. If we computed a Real Clear Politics-style average of those four competitive races (and without weighting for the South Carolina vote, which was Obama’s biggest win in the largest turnout state among the four), Clinton’s average margin in the four competitive states is -6.5 points. So, when they run against each other, it’s Obama by a half dozen; but when they don’t she wins by about 16. That’s a 22-point swing.

[Jon]

Here is the link:

http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/tapped_archive?month=01&year=2008&base_name=why_competition_matters

again in the average for the four competitive races is Obama +6.5

[Not Larry Sabato]

James, I don't understand why it is ok for Iowa and New Hampshire to go early, but some states lose all their Delegates for doing the same thing. That's crap.

[Rowhey]

Not Larry Sabato,
It's crap to go back on an agreement. Anyone who reneges on an agreeement is in essence stating, "My word means NOTHING."

Is that what you want here?

[alexander hamilton]

Politics at its finest is a competition over ideas and leadership potential. It's hard to read much into a contest that totally lacks competition. Hillary's strength is name recognition, Obama's is his magnetic personality and great wit, which can only come to the fore if the campaign has a chance to campaign. It didn't, a de facto truce was declared, and Hillary won as any most-well-known candidate should in an empty campaigning context. Hillary winning FL tells us that FL Dems know who Hillary is to a far greater extent than they know about Obama. And that's really about it.

[Sam]

NLS, you're right, it is crap, the rules need to be changed... but the time for this complaining was literally MONTHS ago when it was first announced. This last week crap is disingenuous at best.

[linda b]

Why is Obama so determined to tell 1.7 million people who voted in a Democratic Primary that their votes don't count

because florida dems brok the rules.
hey nls, can you actually report the truth?

[Rowhey]

Sam,
Your point goes directly to the trust issue. Hillary's campaign signed off on the Flordia agreement months ago.

To go back on that deal now...only underscores the charge that she cannot be trusted.

[James Young]

Anybody who thinks we needed more evidence on that point, Rowhey, just hasn't been paying attention.

Hillary can be trusted to do what's best for Hillary, and what gets her power. It's no more complicated than that.