Super Tuesday's Dirty Little Secret

Many Super Tuesday states with primaries have early voting that have been going on for weeks.  In California for example, about 25% of voters are expected to vote early.

Hillary has averaged about a 15 point lead in California polls while early voting was going on. 

So that means just to tie the state, assuming the early votes reflect the overall polls- Obama has to win by five points on election day with the 75% of voters that cast a ballot then. 

Vote Early, Vote Often, Vote Hillary!

Comments

Obama has improved by 6% in 3 days in CA from -17% to -11% to Billary. wonder why???? hmmmmmmmmmm........:)

and fl is no indicator of the shift in Obama's momentum. hell they have been voting for a month down there

Adam Malle

Ben wins the prize! No dirty little secret, though.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but there is early voting in Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, New Jersey, New Mexico, Tennessee and Utah.

All early voting in these states began while Hillary was winning NH, MI, and NV.

The real question is, "Didn't anyone explain that to Teddy?" Timing is everything, so I keep wondering if Teddy endorsed Barack BEFORE NH...?

The one who has momentum on February 6th will win the nomination.

[PM]

To anon who thinks the shift from 17 to 11 in CA is a trend: the rolling average was 12% before the 17% poll.

Here's the RCP trend:

RCP Average 01/13 - 01/27 - 44.2 32.2 11.0 Clinton +12.0
SurveyUSA 01/27 - 01/27 888 LV 49 38 9 Clinton +11.0
Politico/CNN/LAT 01/23 - 01/27 690 LV 49 32 14 Clinton +17.0
USA Today/Gallup 01/23 - 01/26 779 HT 47 35 10 Clinton +12.0
Field 01/14 - 01/20 377 LV 39 27 10 Clinton +12.0
PPIC 01/13 - 01/20 543 LV 43 28 11 Clinton +15.0
Rasmussen 01/14 - 01/14 897 LV 38 33 12 Clinton +5.0

[Ann C.]

A separate issue: there's an assumption that Kennedy's endorsement will help Obama. I think it will in MA. But I was surprised to see the comments on Americablog -- which is promoting Obama -- and Wonkette -- where most commenters were cynical, basically saying Kennedy was a dinosaur and how did this reflect the politics of the new.

And there were those who noted that this runs directly against what Obama has been preaching -- inclusivity, across the spectrum -- and then he trots out the symbol of decadent politics in the Democratic Party.

Ann C.,

As in NH and NV, Obama would do one thing, his campaign would do another, and then Obama would do even another thing.

Obama sends out mixed signals. He does this all on his own, and voters pick up on it quickly.

This is the key problem with Obama: If he is sending mixed signals now, then how can he be expected to compete in October.

Obama's behavior at the SOTU: No handshake for Hillary, letting Teddy wisper in his ear all night, enthusiastically clapping for Bush when he entered the chamber, acting like a school kid for the opportunity to shake Bush's hand.

Obama has become a mixed message candidate to many.

[Ann C.]

I agree. Here's some news. Kathleen Townshend Kennedy and Robert Kennedy Jr. have endorsed Clinton.

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-kennedy29jan29,0,1618955.story?track=ntothtml

[Not Wayne Rooney]

How many more people will Bill Clinton alienate this week?

[Rowhey]

Not Wayne:

Here's a good story covering just how many people Bill Clinton has alienated: http://www.driverdevelopmentservices.com/

Ben, in the past, you have railed against every politician you believe committed the slightest infraction....from breaking campaign finance laws to personal financial disclosure rules.

How can you in good conscience not see that Hillary Clinton is a thoroughly flawed and inherently corrupt politician?

Just how did that $1,000 investment in cattle futures turn into a $100,000 return?

[Dan]

Ben, following your logic about all that early voting, we should look for a huge victory for Giuliani on the Republican side in Florida today. They have estimated one million early voters down there. Somehow I don't think that is going to happen. It is as unlikely as your prediction of a Clinton landslide on Super Tuesday.

[Dan]

What isn't getting enough press is the fact that Obama has one hell of an organization. Early on they built a solid nuts and bolts organization that has put them in a position to capitalize on the wave of enthusiasm for his candidacy. If he gets the nomination it will be good old fashioned hard work and organization that did it.

[Dan]

Super Tuesday is going to be very competitive. I would bet dollars to donuts though that Obama will win more delegates that day than Clinton does.

[TDH]

Hey, anyone notice how well Obama's transformational politics is helping in Kenya? He made another (futile) call yesterday. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080129/ap_on_re_af/kenya_election_violence

"U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential hopeful whose father was Kenyan, appealed for peace on Nairobi's Capital FM radio station.

"Now is the time for all parties to renounce violence. Now is the time for Kenyan leaders to rise above party affiliations blah blah unity blah blah"

Wow. Three comments in a row for Dan.

MANIC OBAMANIAC

But have you seen this?

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/1/29/105154/627

Now wouldn't it be just fun to see him lose IL?

[Dan]

anon 12:13, no pal, I am not an Obamaniac as you put it. I support John Edwards and will be voting for him in the Virginia Primary. I encourage everyone else to do the same.

I have been watching the breathtakingly ludicrous spin of the Clitonites on this blog and elsewhere since Clinton's decision to go ugly snapped back and hit her hard. I understand politics can be a street fight, but I am old fashioned enough to be disgusted by the Clinton campaign.

And if you think Clinton will carry Illinois you are as delusional as Ben is.

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

TDH, I've already called you out once on that bullshit. Tyring to blame problems with Kenyan elections on Obama is about the biggest political stretch possible on the entire planet. Give us a break. But hey, keep it up, it's OBVIOUSLY taking hold.

*rolls eyes*

I see the Clinton trolls are still up to their old games. They really are scared because they can see the writing on the wall.

My guesses for Obama wins on Feb 5:

Alabama (>50%)
Alaska
Colorado (>50%)
Delaware (>50%)
Georgia (>50%)
Idaho (>50%)
Illlinois (>70%)
Kansas (>50%)
Massachusetts
Minnesota (>50%)
Missouri
New Jersey (barely)
North Dakota (>50%)
Tennessee
Utah (>50%)

My guesses for Clinton wins on Feb 5:

Arizona
Arkansas (>50%)
Connecticut
New Mexico
New York (>50%)

The toss-ups:

California
Oklahoma

Now, I think in California, Clinton may eek out a narrow victory, but the huge delegate-rich prize will effectively neutralize itself on Super Tuesday with a very, very close election. Oklahoma is just a strange electorate, having gone for Clark in '04, and I hesitate to predict anything there.

But in most of the more rural smaller states and western states and southern states with black populations of more than 25% of the primary vote, you'll see Obama do VERY, VERY well.

I think New Jersey and Massachusetts will be really close too, but will eek out for Obama.

So, what Super Tuesday will come down to, in my opinion, is how well the two major candidates do in their home states of Illinois and New York. I think Obama will break 70% in IL, whereas I think Hillary will be lucky to break 50% in NY.

Advantage, Barack.

[Pete in Williamsburg]

These are some excellent and informative posts. I have a question and some comments:

-- I still haven't seen a good summary of why -mathematically - Virginia will still be in play after Super Tuesday. I'd sure appreciate a tutorial on that.

-- Rowhey, you're wrong because for all the boo-hooing the Right does about the media, the Clinton gaffs in this campaign cycle have been completely media driven. As an average voter, I read the MLK comments and shrugged. However, it was the media who led with "Clinton Blasts Black Leaders" and other Drudge-style banners. The Clinton-hardball stories are fun stories and that's it. Everytime I read the text underneath "Bill Clinton's Unleashes Fury in Response to Reporter's Question" I find out that as always with allegations of Clinton scandal, there's no there there.

-- I'm most likely voting for Obama in the primary. Kaine's endorsement has influenced me somewhat, also I like his style and message. Nuances like his handshakes at the SOTU are only significant to insiders who post on blogs.

[TDH]

Doug:

Kenya is a legitimate issue. He's promising inspiration. He promising leadership. And nothing is being achieved in a country where he allegedly is a national hero. Nada. Zilcho.

Because that's not how the world works.

Just because someone likes Clinton you are calling that person a troll?

That's like calling someone a deviate because they don't have the same sexual preferences. They're both WRONG. They're both examples of bigotry.

And your predictions, based on nothing more than wishful thinking, seem delusional. But then Obama's whole platform is based on wishful thinking. And appealing to people who believe in wishful thinking as a way to get things done.

Hillary is a true American liberal and has stuck to it even through years of bashing. Here's a nice sensitive response John Aravosis put up at Americablog. http://www.americablog.com/2008/01/hillary-speaks-out-about-gay-youth.html

[not Harold Stassen]

Just saw the NBC video on the Rezko house deal. And it appeared yesterday?

Obama got some 'splainin to do.

[Ann]

BTW, for any GLBT friends out there, the Washington Blade endorsed Clinton. http://www.washblade.com/2007/12-21/view/editorial/11773.cfm And she won a straw poll of the Gertrude Stein Demo Club over Obama, 38-31.

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

"where he allegedly is a national hero"

Who the hell are you trying to fool? Give it up.

Well, we'll see how delusional they are, won't we?

If I'd have said Obama would get 55% of the vote in South Carolina one week ago, people would have said I was delusional, including myself.

Face it, TDH, your candidate doesn't have any momentum. Maybe a little "Joementum"...

Posting obnoxious, false, and bullshit posts is what makes it trollish, not that they ATTEMPT to raise up Hillary Clinton. After all, you can raise up a Clinton, but they'll just lower themselves right back down---into the gutter.

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

This GLBT voter knows who is really committed to repealing DOMA. Ask Hillary about that one.

OBAMA ALL THE WAY.

He's the only one we can trust not to throw us under the bus like BOTH Clintons did in 1996.

Doug in Mount Vernon,

So, I guess this makes you an Obama troll or hack? Which is it, because the bs poll projections you just offered are worthless.

Doug in Mount Vernon,

So, I guess this makes you an Obama troll or hack? Which is it, because the bs poll projections you just offered are worthless.