Now I know we are all enjoying Episode 42 in inhategerry.com, but what about that most recent Zogby poll? You know, the one in Indiana that has Obama ahead? Maybe Zogby isn't the greatest pollster, but that has got to be bad news for the Clinton crowd. North Carolina isn't the stomping it was, but the polls have Obama up outside the margin of error. I think he would like to run up the score there to get more delegates though. With the math the way it is, even a close Clinton win in Indiana isn't going to close the gap by more than 5-8 delegates. And if she loses, I don't know how she can continue. Well, I do, but it wouldn't be practical.
Interested observer: Zogby is only one pollster. Clinton is ahead in Indiana and the trend line is in her favor in NC. www.realclearpolitics.com isn't even including Zogby in its averages because it's such an outlier, but even if it did Clinton would still be ahead.
And it's a terrible mailer. If all Leslie has is the lame argument Obama uses about "opposing the war from the start," when they were both state legislators and had no say in the issue, then it's not enough.
Reagarding NC, in all the coastal southern states with large black populations Obama underperformes in the polling. On election day hes often done ten points better than the pre-election polls suggested (see: South Carolina, etc).
Not sure why this is, but its happened consistently in these states so I'd keep that in mind when looking at NC polls.
Indiana will probably be Clinton barring some kind of miracle.
BTW, for anyone that cares he won Guam and picked up 2 more supers today. Only 287 delegates to go, Clinton's lead in Supers is now well under 20 for the first time.
Wanna hear about someone who may hurt Democrats' chances at getting elected? Sam Rasoul is helping phonebank Democrats for Roanoke City's mayor/council race. If Dems lose, they'll know EXACTLY who to blame!
Zogby isn't always an outlyer. I won't hang my hat on him, but Clinton isn't trending as well as she would like. I think she wins in a squeeker.
Not so in NC.
Plus, the math is just worse for her after Pennsylvania's "win" (although it kept her alive) and a 10 delegate gain. There just aren't enough delegates left for her to make up ground, even if she is winning by 20 points.
And the supers are starting to break for Obama, in case no one noticed....even when has has had a terrible MONTH.
I' still waiting for Oct/Nov when McCain gets pealed like a banana. The guy isn't going to withstand scrutiny. I like him, but he is fumbling left, right and center now and it will only get worse.
I like that the mailer draws attention to the fact that Leslie was an outspoken critic of the war from the beginning. I think it goes beyond the issue of the war and illustrates how she's willing to stand up for what's right even if it might do her some political harm.
They forgot the brown bag. Somebody's gonna get fired for that oversight.
You need a disclaimer on the link -- some poor schmuck is going to sue you for having his eyes burned by that hideous image.
Posted by: | May 03, 2008 at 02:35 PM
How 'bout some coverage for an OUTSTANDING pro-life alternative - Keith Fimian.
Both Gerry and Leslie suck.
But Keith is a great man.
A GREAT MAN.
Posted by: t | May 03, 2008 at 03:13 PM
Now I know we are all enjoying Episode 42 in inhategerry.com, but what about that most recent Zogby poll? You know, the one in Indiana that has Obama ahead? Maybe Zogby isn't the greatest pollster, but that has got to be bad news for the Clinton crowd. North Carolina isn't the stomping it was, but the polls have Obama up outside the margin of error. I think he would like to run up the score there to get more delegates though. With the math the way it is, even a close Clinton win in Indiana isn't going to close the gap by more than 5-8 delegates. And if she loses, I don't know how she can continue. Well, I do, but it wouldn't be practical.
Posted by: Interested Observer | May 03, 2008 at 04:10 PM
Interested observer: Zogby is only one pollster. Clinton is ahead in Indiana and the trend line is in her favor in NC. www.realclearpolitics.com isn't even including Zogby in its averages because it's such an outlier, but even if it did Clinton would still be ahead.
And it's a terrible mailer. If all Leslie has is the lame argument Obama uses about "opposing the war from the start," when they were both state legislators and had no say in the issue, then it's not enough.
Posted by: | May 03, 2008 at 04:36 PM
Reagarding NC, in all the coastal southern states with large black populations Obama underperformes in the polling. On election day hes often done ten points better than the pre-election polls suggested (see: South Carolina, etc).
Not sure why this is, but its happened consistently in these states so I'd keep that in mind when looking at NC polls.
Indiana will probably be Clinton barring some kind of miracle.
Posted by: Not an Anonymous Conservative Concern Troll | May 03, 2008 at 04:41 PM
BTW, for anyone that cares he won Guam and picked up 2 more supers today. Only 287 delegates to go, Clinton's lead in Supers is now well under 20 for the first time.
Posted by: Not an Anonymous Conservative Concern Troll | May 03, 2008 at 04:42 PM
Not as good as the last piece.
Posted by: | May 03, 2008 at 05:03 PM
Nothing about Clinton's awful play to voters on the getting rid of the gas tax?
If Connolly had said that, you'd bust a gasket.
Posted by: | May 03, 2008 at 05:48 PM
Wanna hear about someone who may hurt Democrats' chances at getting elected? Sam Rasoul is helping phonebank Democrats for Roanoke City's mayor/council race. If Dems lose, they'll know EXACTLY who to blame!
Posted by: | May 03, 2008 at 07:20 PM
Hillary picked up two more delegates in Pennsylvania today. I'm surprised Ben's tally doesn't show her in the lead.
Posted by: dems4dem | May 03, 2008 at 07:39 PM
Real Clear Politics doesn't do Zogby. Hmm, that's where I found it:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/in/indiana_democratic_primary-639.html
Zogby isn't always an outlyer. I won't hang my hat on him, but Clinton isn't trending as well as she would like. I think she wins in a squeeker.
Not so in NC.
Plus, the math is just worse for her after Pennsylvania's "win" (although it kept her alive) and a 10 delegate gain. There just aren't enough delegates left for her to make up ground, even if she is winning by 20 points.
And the supers are starting to break for Obama, in case no one noticed....even when has has had a terrible MONTH.
I' still waiting for Oct/Nov when McCain gets pealed like a banana. The guy isn't going to withstand scrutiny. I like him, but he is fumbling left, right and center now and it will only get worse.
Posted by: Interested Observer | May 03, 2008 at 07:50 PM
Lets all remember that McCain has never really been attacked from the left, only the right.
Once hes attacked on his left flank and made into the standard Bush-Cheney Republican his phony "maverick" veneer will come right off.
Posted by: Not an Anonymous Conservative Concern Troll | May 03, 2008 at 08:36 PM
I like that the mailer draws attention to the fact that Leslie was an outspoken critic of the war from the beginning. I think it goes beyond the issue of the war and illustrates how she's willing to stand up for what's right even if it might do her some political harm.
Posted by: Bryan J. Scrafford | May 03, 2008 at 09:32 PM
So the Bitch bitched about the war.
BIG DEAL
Posted by: Grapes | May 03, 2008 at 10:27 PM