Frontrunner for Governor

Given the share of primary votes that come from Northern Virginia, Creigh Deeds has always needed to win Hampton Roads, Richmond and rural Virginia to defeat Brian Moran in the 2009 Primary.

So, Vivian Paige's straw poll, that showed a large Brian victory (About 2-1)in Hampton Roads is a pretty big story.

Creigh better figure out what is wrong down there, or this isn't going to be much of a contest...

Comments

[Sean Holihan]

All you have to do is ask almost any party leader in Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Hampton, Newport News and Portsmouth and you'll have your answer.

Hampton Roads is Brian Moran country.

[Doug]

It's bubbles.

[CarolineProgressive]

Sean H.-
I saw Brian Moran speak at the 1st CD convention last Saturday. Not exactly inspiring. He only got tepid applause even for his anti-Bush remarks. I don't know how much better Deeds would have done, but this was a room full of NOVAns and Hampton Roaders who just didn't seem to care. Hey, just my impression.

Moran is a losing candidate south of, say, Quantico.

Deeds is the Democrats only hope.

Governor Kaine and some of his close followers are not quiet about "Brian, then next Governor..." remarks.

What we saw at Vivian's was more of a fall-in-line vote from party regulars. If anyone knows anything about Tidewater, there are few party regular democrats.

This Moran-Deeds primary will be a brawl--and many of us fear that it will hurt our chances in November if Deeds loses. Simply put, some RoVa dems will likely stay home instead of supporting a NoVa candidate who defeated a RoVa guy--one of our own.

Seriously, righ now I'd put stats at Moran 52% and Deeds at 48%. This is gonna be a tough battle, although I concede that Moran has the upper hand.

[Sean Holihan]

This party has one hope for beating McDonnell and thats the guy that hasn't already lost to him once.

You can say whatever you want about Creigh. I myself think he is a great guy. However, he's proven he can't win even with Kaine's coattails. He can't raise the money as he only has a little over 100K on hand to Moran's 578K. He isn't the kind of progressive candidate that I personally want as Deeds has proven that he won't even vote his district when it comes to the Marriage Amendment. Not only that, Criegh wouldn't even be as good a governor as Brian.

This year, both were given the opportunity to try to pass Alicia's Law. Brian fought hard to pass it through the House of Delegates, giving two firey speeches on the floor and in front of committees for this bill. What happened? Brian passed HIS bill through the Republican controlled House. Creigh couldn't even pass his bill through the state senate. In case anyone needs reminding, Criegh is a senator of the majority party. Moran got his bill through both the House and Senate. Deeds couldn't even move this important legislation through his own body.

I could never cast a vote for Creigh Deeds for Governor. He won't be able to fair better against McDonnell, he won't be able to raise the kind of cash that Moran can and he wouldn't be anywhere near as effective as Deeds. All you have to do is look at their own seperate operations as they are right now.

With Moran you lose. You lose big time.

All the Republicans have to do is tie him to his liberal brother. People will see him as a far left liberal by November.

[Vivian J. Paige]

Two quick things: there is no way that you could call that group "party regulars." Yes, there were some of them there but they weren't the majority.

Second - outside of NoVA, no one knows who the heck Jim Moran is. Get out of the rarified air of NoVA. There's no way that plays throughout the rest of the state.

[Hokie Guru]

Anon 12:29 AM, Bob McDonnell = Pat Robertson

That won't fly up here in Northern Virginia or my Blacksburg, VA.

[Vivian J. Paige]

One last thing - it ain't "Tidewater," it's Hampton Roads.

[Sean Holihan]

As I've said many times: what Vivian said.

[Hokie Guru]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LBAeNmLGbk

LOL

[Hokie Guru]

http://www.cbn.com/700club/Guests/Bios/Bob_McDonnell052506.aspx

Bob McDonnell... a graduate of a tier-four Law School, as rated by U.S. News.

[Hokie Guru]

http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2007/04/13/pat_robertson/

Yep, this is McDonnell's school; LOL. Bill Maher rocks.

[J. Tyler Ballance]

With Creigh Deeds, the Democrats will see a huge surge of crossover votes from the conservative/Republican ranks who are angry with Bob McDonnell's support of the Bush Neocon agenda and the associated trashing of our Constitution.

We saw the same formula work with Jim Webb and John Miller; run a moderate and win. Run a socialist or someone from the left, like Moran, and you will lose by 12%

[Sean Holihan]

Jim Webb and John Miller were facing candidates who threw around a racial slur and another who wanted to do away with public education. That's why there was crossover votes.

Besides that, Brian Moran had the highest rating from the Family Foundation in 07 out of any of the Dems from the House of Delegates.

To call him a "socialist" reveals that you haven't even begun to do your homework.

Sean -

Are you saying that Brian is more right-wing on Faimly Foundation social issues than conservative "Democrats" like Johnny Joannou (someone who, as I recall, you said last year was really a Republican in the primary with your candidate Henry Light), Joe Johnson, and Bud Phillips? I've got to assume that when you point out that Brian had the "highest rating from the Family Foundation in 07 out of any of the Dems from the House of Delegates."

I was strongly leaning to Brian but I might have to reevaluate my position now that you have pointed this out.

I certainly don't hear Creigh Deeds bragging about his high rating from the Family Foundation.

[Sean Holihan]

What I am stating is the fact that Brian recieved the highest percentage in 2007. That is because of his vote on the Hepatitis C bill. He didn't believe that enough studies were done yet to pass a mandatory vaccination bill.

This year, his rating will be lower. My point is that Brian is neither a liberal or a conservative. Brian is a moderate. However, Brian has always been right on issues of pro-choice and equality as he had the guts to vote against the Marriage Amendment, full well knowing that he would be running state wide. Something I cannot say for Creigh Deeds, who voted for the bill while his district voted against it.

And in the case of Johnny Joannou, all you have to do is see who Mark Warner publicly backed in that primary.

[anon 12:12 am]

Vivian,

I respect you and appreciate your blog. But to argue party regulars? Please. How organized is the Norfolk Dem party outside of your annual event?

Clearly you are a Moran supporter, which I appreciate. One question: Were you a supporter before or after Brian changed his Massachusetts-born accent?

As far as Tidewater vs. Hampton Roads, yea people love to try to change that nowadays. But change TCC, all the signs that denote the area as Tidewater, and also remove anyone over 70.

We've had a strong family presence in Portsmouth/Newport News since 1875, so please don't get defensive for a commmonly acceptable term.

Also, don't go bashing Deeds by pimping up Moran just because one is moderate while the other is NoVa (Alexandria) lefty liberal.

Virginia ain't blue, not yet. I think that both would be a very good Governor, and they are good men--just different in personality and how they go about solving problems. They both have excellent judgement skills, in my opinion.

Hugs and Kisses.

[anon 12:12 am]

"My point is that Brian is neither a liberal or a conservative. Brian is a moderate."
Posted by: Sean Holihan | May 26, 2008 at 09:37 AM

Interesting talking point. Its rare these days that a Dem candidate has to "move to the right" to appeal to Dem primary voters. Usually, its the other way around--and often for good reason.

Ya sure you want to go down this road?

[Sean Holihan]

Allright, that was a low blow. Norfolk has actually starting to get their act together. They've elected a new chairwoman who is highly organized. She's got great plans for the NCDD and they're already on the right track.

[Sean Holihan]

Moran has absolutely nothing to hide from with his voting record.

Creigh Deeds has a lot of explaning to do with his.

You wanna have an fight about who needs to build bridges with some of the members of the Democratic Party of Virginia between those two? I can go all day.

And I'm not ashamed to publicly state that either.

Sean -

How far to the right of Johnny Joannou was Brian Moran according to the Family Foundation '07 rating that you made a point of talking about?

I mean, was Brian a lot more conservative on social issues than Joannou according to the Family Foundation or just a little bit conservative than Joannou?

Real numbers -- you know, the actual numbers the Family Foundation uses to rate the legislators -- would be real helpful if you've got them.

Thanks.

[Sean Holihan]

After searching around for five minutes on their website and on google, I couldn't find it. Plus, I have to go play baseball. Baseball wins. I'll see if I can't find it later.

[learn virginia]

This family foundation argument is silly.

The point here is Creigh lost. He ran against Bob McD. and lost. He ran 7 points behind TMK in NOVA and 9 points behind in Loudoun. He ran 10 points behind in Hampton Roads (or Tidewater!). That's where our votes are.

He's isn't going to win this time when he's on the top of the ticket.

I don't know if Moran will win. I hope he does. But i'm not sure... He will do better than Deeds in NOVA, he will win Loudoun not lose it. We'll see.

... one thing is for sure though, Creigh won't win. He can't win. But by staying in this primary, he might be handing the mansion to McDonnell.