MOUNTAIN MOMMA WINS AGAIN

4:23 p.m. Projection:  Hillary Clinton wins West Virginia.

NOMINATION CONTESTS ARE NEVER OVER WHEN STATES ARE REFUSING TO BACK THE PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE.

Comments

[Timothy Watson]

OMG! I had no idea! Thanks for the information Ben! 99.99999999% accuracy rating right?

[Not NLS]

Wild. Wonderful. Worthless.

Wait. What happened to "It's over. Obama is the nominee"?

http://notlarrysabato.typepad.com/doh/2008/05/its-over-obama.html

[Not Larry Sabato]

I wasn't expecting states to reject the nominee. At this point, this is a yes/no referendum on Obama and it sounds like an overwhelming NO today.

[Not Jeff W.]

Give me a point spread, I'll say Clinton by 18%

[John]

Reject the nominee? West VA was never going to go for Obama - even if he had enough delegates to have clinched it up already. Your claim that states are "rejecting" the "nominee" is silly. We won't have a nominee until August - just as the GOP won't have one until September. And remember - some states voted for Clark and/or Edwards in 2004 after Kerry was essentially the nominee. That didn't mean anything other than those states had demographics that were terrible for Kerry - just as West VA was never going to be an Obama state.

[Not An Anonymous Conservative Concern Troll]

Congratulations on her win.

[Not An Anonymous Conservative Concern Troll]

"I wasn't expecting states to reject the nominee. At this point, this is a yes/no referendum on Obama and it sounds like an overwhelming NO today."

How bout Dean winning Vermont in 2004? Wasn't that the game changer?

[brimur]

Congratulations Hillary.

My point, Ben, is that this isn't the first time you've said "it's over" and then suddenly changed your mind. I find it odd and inconsistent, is all.

First there was this:

http://notlarrysabato.typepad.com/doh/2008/02/major-announcem.html
("It's time for Hillary to drop out.")

Then this soon after:

http://notlarrysabato.typepad.com/doh/2008/02/obama-collapses.html
("Thank you Hillary, for continuing to fight.")

[Dan]

I'm not sure where this originated, but there is a hilarious story making the rounds about Hillary lamenting her dream of being a coal miner being crushed when she was forced to go to Wellesley and Yale.

She will win big tonight. She will not exceed expectations because they aren't spinning expectations so hard anymore.

Can you say "exit strategy" ?

[Rowhey]

Troll:
WV should be a state that's in the "D" column. WV has 2 to 1 "D" registration. The Gov is a "D" as are both U.S. Senators.

With Obama on the top of the ticket, WV will not be contested in '08.

[Not An Anonymous Conservative Concern Troll]

Rowhey-

You're right, McCain has West Virginia and its 5 electoral votes.

In 2012, they're going to very likely be 4 electoral votes.

With Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, and North Carolina (see the latest Rasmussen polls) in play he doesn't really need it.

[Not An Anonymous Conservative Concern Troll]

Let me defend WV for a moment and say I don't believe for a minute this is racism.

Folks in Appalachia just really like and respect the Clintons, and have good memories of the 1990s. Obama is an unkown quantity to them.

[Doug]

Great Post! It's over for Obama! I knew it!

Chances Obama doesn't carry the great state of WV in November? .100043%

[Dan]

I want to second the notion that the Republicans have West Virginia locked up. They should probably devote absolutely no resources to WV and just assume victory.

(Oh, please. Oh, please.)

[Terry]

Anyone know what the Republican nominee John McCain got in his WVA primary? Mike Huckabee won the state and McCain got 1% of the vote. Doesn't seem to mean much at all for either the D's or R's in November.

And...let's not forget that Barack Obama won Virginia by 28%, Maryland by 24, South Carolina by 29%, Georgia by 36%..hmm..Aren't these all MUCH larger states than WVA?

[Not Larry Sabato]

McCain got 1 percent because it was a convention and he didn't make the final ballot.

[rowhey]

Troll:
Before you get your panties wet with an Obamagasm, I think you better realize that no Democrat has won the White House without also carrying WV.

While it only has five electoral votes, it is representative of much of the coalition needed for Dems to carry the WH

[Not An Anonymous Conservative Concern Troll]

Rowhey, times change.

Maine predicted the winner until 1936, when it only predicted Vermont.

[Not An Anonymous Conservative Concern Troll]

Hows that Mississippi House district goin, btw?

[Sam]

So after Super Tuesday when McCain was the essential nominee, those states that voted Huckabee were rejecting McCain and any delegates who could change their mind should have considered it?

rowhey - WV has been irrelevant to Democrats' nationwide chances since 1988. as Troll pointed out, times change. No person who'd ever lost the New Hampshire primary had won the general election... until Clinton... and then Bush. Maine was the nation's swing state.... until it was Missouri... until it was Florida... until it was Ohio...

Take the Kerry states, add the Gore states of Iowa and New Mexico, which are looking to go Dem this year, and all you need is Colorado, which is also turning hard left, and guess what, the Dems win without Missouri, West VA, or Virginia.

Oh yeah, and blowing out the opposition in the West VA primary really meant a lot to Kerry and Gore didn't it?

[Interested Observer]

Congratulations Mike Huckabee!

Ben, I thought you had conceded this election a couple weeks ago? Your gal is on a morphine drip. Oregon is going to put her out. Let's do some numbers:

Obama leads in delegates
Obama leads in states won
Obama leads in popular vote
Obama leads in super delegates
Obama leads against McCain in polls for November (not that they mean anything at this juncture)
Obama leads in money and fund raising.

Clinton leads in debt.

The fact is that Clinton was out hussled from the beginning of this race by someone who knows how to organize. She failed to deliver a knock-out blow when she should have - Super Tuesday and Obama's efficient acquisition of delegates in big states (California and Texas, among others) even made her "victories" somewhat Pyrrhic.

[Doug]

Obamagasm!? I've had three!

Bob Barr will win WV this year!

[Tired of all this]

The “coal triangle” states of WV, OH and PA are keys to winning a presidential election. As one can see from the charts below, the net winner of electoral votes in these three states, which are usually closely contested and which shift between parties, mirror the national results.

2004
PA Kerry 50.9 Bush 48.4 21 electoral votes Dems 21 GOP 25
OH Bush 50.8 Kerry 48.7 20 “
WV Bush 56.1 Kerry 43.2 5 “

2000
PA Gore 50.6 Bush 46.4 23 “ Dems 23 GOP 26
OH Bush 50.0 Gore 46.5 21 “
WV Bush 51.9 Gore 45.6 5 “

1996
PA Clinton 49.2 Dole 40.0 23 “ [Perot 9.6] Dems 49 GOP 0
OH Clinton 47.4 Dole 41.0 21 “ [Perot 10.7]
WV Clinton 51.5 Dole 36.8 5 “ [Perot 11.3]

1992
PA Clinton 45.2 Bush1 36.1 23 “ [Perot 18.2] Dems 49 GOP 0
OH Clinton 40.2 Bush1 38.4 21 “ [Perot 21]
WV Clinton 48.4 Bush1 35.4 5 “ [Perot 15.9]

1988
PA Bush1 50.7 Dukakis 48.4 23 “ GOP 46 Dems 5
OH Bush1 55.0 Dukakis 44.2 23 “
WV Dukakis 52.2 Bush1 47.5 5 “

Going back to 1952, the coal state model breaks down only once, when Wallace took away the Democratic southern base in 1968.

WV is just a small slice of the coal triangle. Kennedy won it. Eisenhower twice, LBJ, Bush Doofus twice, Bush senior won it once and lost it once.

The Dems are destined to lose in the fall with Obama as the nominee..