Scenario Watch: Obama Picks Webb for VP

This is the first of a three part series- with both Jim Webb and Tim Kaine being rumored for Vice President to Barack Obama- we will take a look at both potential selections- and then analyze which candidate would be better for Obama nationwide and in Virginia (which may not be the same).

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There are a lot of things Jim Webb would add to a national Democratic ticket- which I don't need to go over here.  But if he was selected- how would that impact Virginia politics?

First of all, Webb's term doesn't end until 2012, so his seat would only become vacant if he was selected and then the Obama/Webb ticket was elected.

The next step would fall to Governor Tim Kaine.  He would get to appoint the replacement- until the next General Election.  Because we have elections every year this would put the special election for U.S. Senate on the ballot with Governor, Lt. Governor and Attorney General in November, 2009.

Kaine's appointment would almost certainly be a candidate for the three year term in November 2009- and it is hard to imagine anyone unseating them in a Democratic Convention that year (Primaries can't be held for Special Elections).   So who might Kaine appoint?

The appointment would be given to Chuck Robb if he asked for it as he is both a former Governor and Senator.  I'm not sure Chuck would be interested, so let's explore the other options.

The best theory out there is Kaine would put an end to the Brian Moran-Creigh Deeds showdown for Governor by appointing one of them to be Senator.  This could work for party unity- but who would be appointed?  In my opinion it would have to be Brian Moran to the Senate.  The reason being that in federal elections Northern Virginia makes up a greater percentage of the statewide vote.  To put Creigh in a federal cycle that places more importance on the urban crescent of Virginia would be a disaster for the party.  Even if Creigh was able to survive 2009, he would almost certainly lose the seat in 2012 to any decent GOP candidate.

Another option for Kaine is allowing Moran and Deeds to keep running for Governor and appoint someone else.  Former Lt. Governor Don Beyer would likely be strongly considered.  Don's biggest problem right now is his statewide name ID has dramatically decreased in the 11 years since he was last on the ballot.  Couple that with the tremendous growth in Northern Virginia since then, and Don probably would be no better positioned than an unknown candidate among many voters.  To put the time in context- Don was Lt. Governor to Governor George Allen.

Former Congressman L.F. Payne would also be out there.  L.F. ran much better than the other Democrats on the 1997 ticket and is now very successful in the private sector.  He would likely also have name ID problems, even worse than Beyer, but L.F.'s style of not offending anyone might be very good in the U.S. Senate.

While Don would lead among those in the party's past, there are other options.  DPVA Chair Dickie Cranwell would probably want consideration.  Former Delegate Viola Baskerville and Former Fairfax Chairwoman Kate Hanley are both in the Kaine cabinet and might be considered also.  Of these three Hanley is probably the most electable in a special election,  but she hasn't run since 1999 and hasn't had GOP opposition since 1995- meaning she has the same name ID issues as Beyer, making it hard to imagine her cutting in front of Beyer unless Beyer is getting a national position in the Obama cabinet.

Other options could be appointing an insurgent from the General Assembly.  State Senators Chap Petersen, Donald McEachin, John Edwards, and Ralph Northam as well as State Delegates Jennifer McClellan, Joe Bouchard and Steve Shannon jump to mind.  However, they all have some obvious weaknesses, starting with name ID.  McEachin and Petersen would jump to the top of this list because of the strong support they would have from Webb for their early support of him in 2006, but both have lost statewide campaigns before.  Shannon would likely have problems inside the party for some of his votes, Northam and Bouchard both have military backgrounds, but not a lot of style points, and McClellan would be a very divisive choice given her intra-party activity, especially for Harris Miller.  Edwards is an interesting choice as someone very popular in the party and his shared name with the former Presidential candidate wouldn't hurt either, but his gun show loophole vote would haunt him.

Local options could include Norfolk Mayor Paul Fraim, Fairfax Chairman Gerry Connolly or Former Alexandria Mayor Kerry Donley.  All would obviously start with almost no name ID outside their home regions.  Fraim could be a very interesting choice with the election overlapping with the Governor's race as his Hampton Roads connection could blunt Bob McDonnell's advantage there across the ballot.  Donley is a long shot as he has become very irrelevant in recent years, and his support of Harris Miller makes him still somewhat politically toxic.   Connolly would be fresh off his defeat in the 11th District primary, and would also likely be far too toxic to be selected.

Never elected options for Kaine might include Larry Roberts, Jim Dyke, Aneesh Chopra, Bob Blue, Sheila Johnson, John Marshall, Jim Ukrop, Stuart Seigel, and Jody Wagner.  Ukrop and Seigel are both large donors and very close to Kaine's Richmond organization- but neither strikes me as a politician in waiting.  Blue is closer with Warner than Kaine, but is well respected around Richmond.  I'm not sure if Dyke is close enough with Kaine to be considered, but as an African American from Northern Virginia who has been both Virginia Secretary of Education and Chairman of the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce, Dyke is always a potential powerhouse.  Chopra is a nice guy, but a little politically tone deaf to get this appointment.  Wagner is Secretary of Finance for Kaine, and lost a close Congressional race in the 2nd District in 2000, but I'm sure she is politically savvy enough to be picked.  Roberts is the opposite of Wagner- as the Governor's closest ally he is very politically savvy, but his closeness to Kaine and lack of ever seeking office could look too much like crony-ism.

Finally, we can't forget the 2009 Congressional Delegation of Jim Moran, Rick Boucher, Leslie Byrne and Bobby Scott.  Moran is out of the question because of his brother running for Governor on the same ballot and Byrne is also out of the question as she will just be restarting in the House.  If Boucher or Scott wanted to turn in their House seniority to take a shot at the Senate this might be their chance, and either one could be a very strong candidate.

The Republican field of consideration for the November, 2009 special election would be much smaller because they would have to win a convention rather than be appointed, so only those with an existing political base would be possible.

Deserving of the first mention is Lt. Governor Bill Bolling.   Elected statewide, Bill earned a lot of respect in GOP circles for stepping back from his showdown with McDonnell for Governor.  If this opportunity came up, many party activists would look to Bolling to run for Senate instead of re-election.

Congressman Eric Cantor and Randy Forbes would also get some buzz going.  Forbes is a former state party chair, and has some statewide knowledge.  Eric is probably the best member of the Congressional delegation to run as an outsider against the appointed Democratic Senator, but he would likely only consider this if he saw his efforts to move up in the House GOP leadership thwarted. 

General Assembly members who might consider a run would include Senator Mark Obenshain, Ayatollah Ken Cuccinelli and Delegates Chris Saxman, Jeff Frederick and Bob Marshall.   Cuccinelli would have to drop out of the AG race, but running against an appointed Democratic Senator is right up his alley.  Saxman would have to give up his seat in the House of Delegates to run, but like Cuccinelli he would likely love a race against an appointed Democrat.  Obenshain still has a very influential name in GOP politics, but would have a long way to go to win a quick nomination fight.  Frederick and Marshall would have some existing support from their unsuccessful campaigns this year, which could give them a leg up over the average GA member.

Former Attorney Generals Mark Earley and Jerry Kilgore who lost races for Governor could both see this as a chance to return to the public eye, although both of them seem done with politics for now.

Former Governor Jim Gilmore could also make a strong case for the nomination.  If 4,000,000 Virginians vote this November, it will take an 80,000 vote margin for Mark Warner to win 51-49.  That's close to his margin in his race for Governor.  If Warner wins by 160,000 votes it will be a 52-48 race and that margin would be a record.  It would take a 400,000 vote margin for Mark to win by more than 55-45 points, which is very unlikely and would give Gilmore a good talking point that he exceeded expectations the year before by keeping his loss in the single digits.  Gilmore's problem would be Bob McDonnell is unlikely to want to share the ballot with him.

Finally, don't forget George Allen who held this seat until 2006.  Republicans are missing one key part of their 2009 "dream" ticket, which is an open racist, an important part of the GOP base.   Allen would be perfect to fill that role for Republicans.

Comments

Nice job! This is the NLS we all know and love.

[Sean Holihan]

Great post. Thank you.

This is why I come to this site every day.

[Not An Anonymous Conservative Concern Troll]

Thanks. Jim Webb would be a great pick!

I would love Jeff Frederick to run for Senate. That is a great move for him!

[brimur]

Only didn't you forget to mention the most likely possibility? Kaine appoints himself.

[Not Larry Sabato]

There is no chance of that.

[brimur]

Come to think of it, Kaine appointing himself would be a master stroke in more than one way. It would put Bolling in as a virtually powerless Governor (filling the tail end of a lame duck term) which would might tempt him to seek an intra-party fight to keep the Governorship against McDonnell (who is obviously a stronger general election option). In short, it might cause some really fun problems for the Republicans.

[brimur]

No chance? An ambitious pol with nowhere else to go, and obvious national interests (activity for Obama)? And he appoints... Bob Blue?

[Not Larry Sabato]

That's absurd.

[brimur]

Appointing Bob Blue? I think so.

[Not Larry Sabato]

This is why I am thinking about giving up this blog. I spend 3 hours pulling together every name possible, and because Brian has some absurd idea that Tim Kaine would destroy his reputation and appoint himself, he picks one of the 44 names I put out there and attacks the post.

I ought to ban you Brian.

[Chris]

Ben I agree. It would be a dumb, dumb move. Not many governor's who appoint themselves do well. One name that immediatly comes to mind is Wendell Anderson of Minnesota. It doesn't happen often, and there is a reason for it.

But I CAN see where the temptation might be - given that other than a cabinet post Tim Kaine has nowhere left to go in his career.

But your right, it would be a stooooopid move.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Given all that Kaine has done for Obama (1st Gov to endorse him), it is fair to say that he could probably get a pretty good gig if he wanted it.

[Not An Anonymous Conservative Concern Troll]

NLS-

Can I haz Obama banner?

K thnx bai.

[Doug]

I give Jim Webb a 45% chance of being Obama's VP. That's top of the field, just over Richardson.

Webb 45%
Richardson 35%
Sebilius 15%
Powell 5%
Field .1%

Both have some big voting block pluses, but Webb's two might be the most important: Military and Redneck. Not being derogatory there at all- those are both proud demographics. And, honestly, Hispanic is pretty tightly entwined with both, since a huge percentage of the Hispanic population is like the redneck- socially conservative, but strong union and much more likely to serve in the military than the likes of many effite Republican snobs (not that McCain is one of those- he, all of his family, and his son have served very honorably- but he is assured to pick a 5 deferment man shooter like Cheney).

As to down ticket? Chap practically recruited Webb to run two years ago, say hello to Senator Peterson (as in US this time). And probably the 2016 Presidential leader. Not that Brian wouldn't be just as good/qualified, but I'm pretty sure the Kaine/Webb/Obama type of politicians recognize the Chap as a "put your ass all in" type worth backing with that level of responsibility. 8 years as senator, and Virginia once again sees a President.

[Doug]

I will also say, again, I came in next to last in the NCAA tourney. And rarely ever pick politics right- I was sure Clinton had the nomination last November. Running against Rudi whatshisname.

Doug,
Chap is great, but do you really think he is going to be the President of the United States in 8 years? If so, can you share whatever you are drinking?

if the r's need any racists it would only be to counter any success of the d's lead racist obama.

btw all you obama supporters... are you black or eggheads? according to his spokesmen that is the only support he has...

oh, aside from the terriorist organizations that is...

[Interested Observer]

This posting is so much better than the 55-part series trashing Gerry Connolly.

I'm not convinced that Webb will be the party VP nominee, though it could be considered a masterstroke. Picking someone from the "south", a former Reagan official, rural and blue collar appeal, anti-war credentials. All very good for Obama. I just think that the "former Reagan official" part will not play well with the party. He is too new to Democratic politics. But then, as they say, the VP is worth a bucket of warm spit, so the only thing wrong with a pick is if it harms you. And I doubt that someone as ambitious as Jim Webb is going to bring down the ticket.

I put my money on Richardson who brings many things to the ballot - an appeal in the West, lots of experience, Hispanics, life-long Democrat.

Then again, we might get Hillary (which would be a mistake). How about Eliot Spitzer, you get NY and he does need a job now....

[Pete in Williamsburg]

Ben,

Good analysis, but I think Webb is a long, long-shot pick. I'm a big fan of Webb. Virginia and the US are lucky to have him in that seat. That said, it was as much luck as it was good campaigning that landed us that senate seat. It would be foolish to give up that seat and risk the money and effort that would be required to win it again in 2009.

I single post about Kaine appointing himself has you down? It's just the regular blend of comedy and crack-pottery that make up the regular readers of NLS.

Anon at 5:40am, please post as often as you can.

[Doug]

11:21- I agree with you. I meant it more in the sense that Kaine may think that way? I don't know what he's smoking, but then who thought we'd be saying President Obama in January. Really.

And it's not African Americans and eggheads, douche, it's African Americans and Elitists, a natural demographic of course, and I am an Elitist.

[Martin Lomasney]

In the long shot that Webb gets the VP, Janet Howell would be a great U.S. Senatorial appointment.

Ben, how did you leave her off your list?

[Senate Watcher]

Very interesting post, Ben. Though Jennifer McClellan is off to a great start in the GA, it seems a little premature for everyone to speculate about her now for various statewide offices.

I do think the concern about name recognition is not insurmoutable. The new, appointed Senator would get a LOT of coverage and the potential GOP nominees in 2009 would not have statewide ID, unless they are already damaged; i.e. Allen, Gilmore...

[proudvadem]

Excellent analysis!
I'd like to Jennifer in Congress or as an AG in 2013.

[Chris]

Here's another scenario I thought of with regards to Kaine getting himself to the Senate.

Perhaps, if Webb were to be elected VP, Kaine would appoint an elderstatesman-type that would step aside in an election. The name I thought of was Doug Wilder.