2009 House of Delegates Preview

Now that we are finished with the June primaries, it's time to take the first look at the House of Delegates in 2009, and the potential breakdown after the election.  Right now there are 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and 2 Independents that are basically Republicans.  We count the Independents as Republicans since any challenge they get will come from the left, and they are supporting GOP control of committees and leadership.  That means Democrats need to pick up 5 seats to tie- 6 seats to win control.

Here's the early line on what seats could be interesting in the battle for control:

43 Bush/Kilgore/Bolling/McDonnell/Allen/Yes Districts
This is the bedrock of Republican control of the House, and the GOP continues to control these 43 seats by a 40-3 margin.  Of those 40 seats, I see 36 as "Safe Republican" for now, with Bob Marshall's fast growing district "Likely Republican", and Dave Nutter's under-performance in 2007 also leaves that race as only "Likely Republican".  Another interesting race for Republicans here could be the district of Speaker Bill Howell, he has pissed off enough people on both sides of the aisle in a close district (Kilgore beat Kaine here by only 300 votes) that the right Democratic challenger could make a serious run at him- so we have this district rated as "Likely Republican".  For the same reasons, Clarke Hogan is also only rated "Likely Republican".  Meanwhile, on the Democratic side of the aisle, Republicans have avoided challenging Joe Johnson because of his popularity in Richmond... I expect that to change with Republican Chairman Jeff Frederick, so Joe is only rated a "Likely Democratic" hold for now.  Meanwhile, Republicans will almost certainly challenge Minority Leader Ward Armstrong, but their statewide ticket doesn't have the rural connections to help unseat him, so I am also rating Ward a "Likely Democratic" retention.  Finally Albert Pollard was just elected in a special election landslide and has always won his seat easily so I am rating him as a "Safe Democratic" hold in his GOP stronghold.

12 Almost Straight Republican Districts
These 12 seats voted as the seats above- but with one recent anomaly of a Democrat carrying them.  John O'Bannon's district voted for all the GOP names, but voted "No" on the marriage amendment.  That won't impact him as he cruises to re-election as a "Safe Republican".  Two Districts voted for all the Republicans, except when Creigh Deeds won them for Attorney General.  If Creigh heads the Democratic ticket, Ben Cline may have some problems, so we will rate him as "Likely Republican".  Meanwhile, if Creigh does not head the ticket, statewide Democrats will probably lose the district of Dan Bowling, giving him some problems downballot, so we will rate him as "Likely Democratic" until we know more about the ticket.  Lt. Governor candidate Jon Bowerbank could help Dan here if he is the nominee, and move this district into the safe column as well.

Finally there are 9 districts that voted Bush/Kaine/Bolling/McDonnell/Allen/Yes.  These districts are currently controlled by 6 Republicans and 3 Democrats, a change from the 8-1 control when Tim Kaine was elected.  However, both Democratic pickups here were in open seats not incumbent defeats.  Shannon Valentine looks strong and is a "Likely Democratic" hold.  Joe Bouchard does not look as strong, especially with Bob McDonnell on top of the GOP ticket in Virginia Beach in 2009- and his race starts out as a "Toss Up".  Democrats have not been able to unseat any incumbents in this group, and none of these seats are open in 2009 yet, so we rate 5 of these 6 Republicans as "Safe" with only Scott Lingamfelter rated "Likely Republican" because of the potential for a good sized Brian Moran victory in his district if Brian is the nominee.

13 Swing Districts
This is the area where Democrats have made their largest gains into the GOP majority in recent years.  In the first election after redistricting in 2001 Republicans controlled these districts by an 11-2 margin.  Now, Democrats control these seats by a 9-4 margin, reflecting a seven seat swing here.  However, the seats that remain are much tougher for Democrats.  Manoli Loupassi won his Bush/Kaine/Bolling/McDonnell/Allen/No district last year over a liberal Independent and the environment looks even better for him in 2009 with no Richmond area Democrats likely to be on the statewide ticket, so we have him rated as "Safe Republican".  Bud Phillips continues to be popular in his Bush/Kilgore/Bolling/Deeds/Webb/Yes district and without any statewide GOP candidates from Southwest Virginia is rated as "Safe Democratic".  Meanwhile, Danny Marshall barely won re-election over Adam Tomer last year in his Bush/Kaine/Bolling/Deeds/Allen/Yes district, and would only begin his re-election as a "Leans Republican" if Tomer seeks a re-match.  David Poisson continues to struggle in his Bush/Kaine/Byrne/McDonnell/Webb/Yes district, and with his unimpressive re-election campaign over minor opposition he begins this cycle as a "Toss Up" for re-election. 

Four Delegates represent Bush/Kaine/Bolling/McDonnell/Webb/Yes districts that match the statewide results.  Back in 2001 all four were Republicans, now Democrats have a 3-1 edge here.  However, the one surviving Republican here, Tim Hugo crushed his Democratic opponent in 2007, and begins his re-election as a "Likely Republican" hold.   On the flip side, Paula Miller has not yet put her seat away, and with Bob McDonnell heading the ticket in Hampton Roads, her seat only "Leans Democratic" in 2009 for re-election.  Lynwood Lewis has put his seat away and is a "Safe Democratic" hold on the Eastern Shore.  Finally Bobby Matheison won here in 2007.  While McDonnell will provide him with some 2009 headaches, his district is more Democratic than Joe Bouchard's and his margin of victory as a challenger was impressive enough that his seat "Leans Democratic" for his first re-election.

Finally 5 Delegates represent Bush/Kaine/Byrne/Deeds/Webb/Yes districts.   Democrats now control a 4-1 edge here and Phil Hamilton's re-election begins as only a "Leans Republican" hold because of the increasingly tough trends in his district.  Trouble for Democrats looms here with Paul Nichols who barely won over weak opposition in 2007.  Paul's race begins as a "Toss Up", but if Faisal Gill is nominated again, Paul will become favored for a second term. Chuck Caputo underperformed in 2007 and begins his re-election as only a "Leans Democratic" seat for re-election.  Dave Marsden will face opposition in 2009 and is not safe, although he is a "Likely Democratic" victory for re-election.  Jim Shuler has a solid hold on his district in this category and is a "Safe Democratic" seat in 2009.

11 Kerry/Kaine/Byrne/Deeds/Webb/Yes Districts
Democrats only control an 8-3 edge in these partisan Democratic seats that have more conservative views on social issues.  Those 8 Democrats are all "Safe Democratic" bets for re-election, the question marks are on the Republicans here.  Jeff Frederick's open seat is a "Toss Up" with his wife Amy Frederick considering running.  If she does not, the seat will move into a leaning-Democratic pickup seat.  Dave Albo is still very stung from his abuser fee disaster, and begins his re-election as a "Toss Up" to return to Richmond.  If Greg Werkheiser runs, I think Dave would become the underdog in his re-election because of what he has done to his own reputation.  Finally Tom Rust's district continues to move blue and before we even know who is challenging him he only begins his re-election as a "Leans Republican" hold. 

21 Kerry/Kaine/Byrne/Deeds/Webb/No Districts
"Safe Democratic" territory here, for 18 of these seats.  Margi Vanderhye won a very close open seat here to finish moving all 21 of these seats to the Democrats, and she has done everything right since then, and begins her first re-election as a "Likely Democratic" hold.  David Bulova is also a "Likely Democratic" hold and Steve Shannon's open seat is currently rated as "Leans Democratic" but the Democrat's chances will be upgraded there if he is nominated for Attorney General and is appearing up-ballot.

Comments

Analysis such as this is why I keep coming back.

What I take away from your analysis is that the Dems have an uphill battle to retake control of the House.

[Not Larry Sabato]

My analysis from this is the voters made a terrible mistake electing Gerry Connolly.

[Not Ben]

Speaking of Gerry, will there be any analysis of the 11th District results?

[Wow]

Go away - cannot handle 2009 right now - to many things at stake in 2008

[John]

Ben - thanks! Great post - much more interesting than "Gerry Sucks, Part 314.15927".

[Not Dick Saslaw]

Ben Cline might be in trouble with Creigh heading the Dem ticket? 1. Deeds won't get them nom, and i don't think Cline would ever be in trouble in his district.

My analysis from this is that Leslie Byrne made a terrible mistake consorting with Ben Tribbett.

[Not Dick Saslaw]

Wait a second......I'm Not Dick Saslaw...who is the Not Dick Saslaw who posted at 3:50? Dick Saslaw and is friend of mine and you're no Not Dick Saslaw.

[Not Dick Saslaw]

....and by the way, Too Conservative has reported rumors previously that Chuck Caputo may bow out and retire next year.

Great analysis. Also, excellent work on the Byrne-Connolly race, even though few people give you credit and lots of people like to take cheap shots.

[Jackson]

Valentine is well on her way to becoming one of the more powerful members in the House. Working as tight knit team with Armstrong and Moran has benefited all three. The unorganized Lynchburg GOP did not even challenge her in 2007 and probably won't in 2009. Look for a brighter future for her.

[Joel Rutstein]

Who's going to challenge Marsden?

[Not Larry Sabato]

The guy's name is Brett Coffee, I know nothing about him other than he is generating a LITTLE buzz in Republican circles.

[Joel Rutstein]

uh oh. This guy sounds a lot more serious than that twerp Golden in 2005. Marsden better hope Coffee doesn't attract much funding.

http://www.sorenseninstitute.org/newsroom/asides/plp-08-profile-brett-coffee

Great post.

I know some Republicans who think they can make a run at the 35th with Steve Shannon running for AG, although Jim Hyland is the only name I've heard floated and that guy could only do a few points better than Purves despite spending a shit-ton of money. Any chance there?

Also, who do the Dems have to run there?

[Not Larry Sabato]

I totally forgot about the 37th and 35th when I was doing this post, and I will update it later tonight with them. They will both go in that last category.

Excellent point, thanks.

[Joel Rutstein]

I need to backtrack a bit on the threat Coffee may present to Marsden. Here's a link to a write-up he did about a recent trip to the White House in which he swallows whole and compliments Bush's reckless and unfair tax policies -

http://www.chamberpost.com/2008/06/tax-policy-and.html#more

Then again, based on Connolly's romp the other day, there probably are a lot of similarly stupid people in this HoD District.

[Not Larry Sabato]

I think the fact that those 70,000 people think Dave Marsden is the one person they want in that district to represent them in Richmond probably answers your question on their stupidity Joel.

[asmith]

Ben,

I know Bouchard has a target on his back, but look how he won. He won because of his strength in the swing precincts and did well in the Republican areas. The Democratic precincts were anemic in turnout in 2007. The black vote will come out a little stronger for him in a Governor election. He's done his homework and will be tough to beat. The GOP can't find anyone in Bayside to run against him. Sure he'll have a tough race but this district will get more Democratic every cycle.

[Joel Rutstein]

Ben, I was more than happy to support Byrne who was to the left of Connolly. There's no way I could support Coffee against Marsden. Now, if you were to challenge Marsden in a primary.....

joel,

"reckless and unfair tax policies "

Might you suggest a policy that is fair? Maybe a flat tax? or are you in favor of taking all of the wealth in the country and dividing it up equally amongst the population?

[proudvadem]

Excellent analysis.
However, wouldnt you consider Phil Hamilton's seat to be a "Safe GOP"?
He's got pretty deep roots and when I lived in NN, it was hard to find a good candidate to run against him.
I'd love to think there is a change for the Dems, but that's a pretty conservative district.

[Joel Rutstein]

Anon @ 7:55, per capita? No. To each according to her needs.

[TJ's Ghost]

Thanks, NLS. Precisely what I love about this site.

Ben, what are you hearing about Democrats in the 52nd?