Gilmore and Kaine- The Same Governorship?

UPDATE FROM THIS JULY 2008 POST: 

KAINE SELECTED AS DNC CHAIR TODAY. 

OH MY GOD, THIS IS HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF.

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It's remarkable looking back at how almost identical the Tim Kaine and Jim Gilmore stories are.

Both were little known local officials in the Richmond area with no General Assembly experience.  Gilmore was Commonwealth Attorney in Henrico County, and Kaine was a City Councilman elected from one-ninth of the City of Richmond, who was later selected by his fellow Councilman to Chair the meetings.  This gave him the title of "Mayor" but at that time in Richmond, "Mayor" was just the Councilman who ran the meetings and wasn't even elected city-wide.

Both of these local officials in Richmond gained notability through hardball racial politics.  Gilmore as Commonwealth's Attorney pushed cases involving white victims and black defendants, and used that to ride to huge popularity in the white community in the Richmond suburbs.  Kaine became the first white "Mayor" in modern Richmond City history with the votes of a few African American Councilman.  Kaine's popularity soared- but much of that popularity was in the white majority suburbs of Richmond.  Kaine's politics at the time were clearly left of center city politics, but white conservatives in the suburbs overlooked that because he was a white Mayor of Richmond- something they had been waiting for.

Both Gilmore and Kaine as local officials watched the opposite party control state government during their rise in local government.  In Gimore's case, all three statewide officials were Democrats (Wilder/Beyer/Terry) and in Kaine's case, all three were Republicans (Gilmore/Hager/Earley).  In Gilmore's case he watched Governor Wilder's popularity falling as he considered running for Attorney General.  In Kaine's case, he ironically watched as Governor Gilmore's popularity faded.

Both caught major breaks as they considered statewide races.  Gilmore benefited from numerous bigger names deciding not to run statewide and ended up facing Salem Delegate Steve Agee for the nomination.  Kaine's road to a 2001 campaign was blocked by Democrats who had almost unanimous support for a ticket of Mark Warner and Emily Couric.  But in summer of 2000 when Couric announced she had pancreatic cancer and dropped out of the campaign- Kaine began preparing a statewide campaign within hours and began making calls for support before the end of the week.

While both Gilmore and Kaine were starting their first statewide campaigns, another loss struck again for their parties.  With the state already controlled by the other party, both saw the Presidency flip to the other party also (1992- Clinton, 2000- Bush).  With all three statewide offices and the Presidency now controlled by the other party, Gilmore and Kaine were handed a weapon as local officials looking to put a "new face" on their parties among activists starving for a victory.   

Both Kaine and Gilmore faced nomination contests that were overshadowed by other state politics.  In Gilmore's case, it was the rise of George Allen and his contested nomination for Governor at the convention.  In Kaine's case, it was the battle among Republicans between Mark Earley and John Hager for Governor.  Either way, both campaigns got very little press or attention in the public outside of party activists.

After winning their party nominations (Kaine for LG, Gilmore for AG), both were shunned by their ticketmate for Governor and forced to run their own political organizations.  In Gilmore's case, it was a battle between Allen loyalists like Mike Thomas, and his political organization headed by Boyd Marcus.  In Kaine's case, Mark Warner actually called a press conference just to distance himself from Kaine.  As one paper reported:  " Kaine’s vulnerabilities were not lost on Warner, who distanced himself from his fellow Democrat the day after Kaine won the lieutenant governor nomination. At a press conference for the 2001 Democratic ticket-mates, Warner told reporters that he disagreed with Kaine’s views on guns and capital punishment. Both men were elected that fall in spite of their sour campaign kickoff."

Weak candidates or not, the general public doesn't usually pick up on party rifts like these, and both Kaine and Gilmore were elected along with their candidates for Governor.  But both also faced an interesting circumstance going forward- the other candidate elected statewide was of the other party.  For Attorney General Jim Gilmore this was Lt. Governor Don Beyer, while for Lt. Governor Tim Kaine this was Attorney General Jerry Kilgore.  Every time in modern Virginia history that the two downballot winners were of opposite parties- they faced each other for Governor in four years.  Much to Mark Warner and George Allen's displeasure, Kaine and Gilmore would likely be their party's candidates to replace them as Governor.

Both new Governors suffered big defeats in the next election. George Allen had strongly supported and put his organization behind Ollie North- who came up short in his 1994 challenge to Chuck Robb.  Mark Warner got transportation referendums on the ballot in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, and then watched them got get obliterated at the polls.

Leading into the midterm elections for their Governors, Gilmore and Kaine traveled the state to small events for local candidates.  Drawing small crowds of party activists, Gilmore and Kaine both consolidated their support within the party to ensure there would be no challenge within the party for Governor.

In 1996 and 2004 both Gilmore and Kaine saw the Presidents of the other party re-elected, one year before their big moment of running for Governor.

Meanwhile, both Governor Allen and Governor Warner had soaring popularity ratings.  It was clear both would leave office with political futures ahead of them, but they needed one last victory:  keeping the Governorship within their party.  That meant Allen holding his nose for Gilmore, and Warner holding his nose for Kaine both of whom had been barely supported when running downballot from their Governor.

However, neither Governor Allen or Governor Warner was ready to give up control of the party to their junior partners preparing to run for Governor.  Allen kept the RPV fully under his control, while Warner blocked an attempt by Kaine to select the new DPVA Chair, pushing aside Kaine's choice Larry Roberts.

Even with popular Governors, Gilmore and Kaine struggled for most of their campaigns for Governor.  Just after Labor Day the Washington Post did a poll showing Don Beyer leading 44-43.  Meanwhile Jerry Kilgore had led by double digits for much of the year, and continued to hold 4-6 point leads around Labor Day.  Huge post labor day swings towards Gilmore and Kaine in the last couple months, gave Gilmore a 13 point victory, while Kaine won by 6 points.

Gilmore's campaign was regarded for having taken off for the "No Car Tax" slogan, while much of the credit for Kaine's victory went to Kilgore's mistakes.  But it is unlikely either one of them would have been elected without popular outgoing Governor's of their party stumping hard for their election.

The late surges by Gilmore and Kaine had one major causality:  The House of Delegates.  Late surges happen well after candidate recruitment is complete, leaving weaker candidates on the field than would have been there otherwise.  Both Kaine and Gilmore only reduced the opposition control of the House by two seats.  Gilmore from 53 to 51, Kaine from 60 to 58.  Both Governors-Elect began using appointments to create special elections.  Gilmore went 7-0 in his special elections, picking up one more seat in the House of Delegates, and one extra seat in the State Senate.  Kaine went 3-2 in his special elections, but since only one had been controlled by a Democrat before, there was net pickup of two seats.  Like Gilmore, it was one House seat, and one Senate seat.

Fresh off their victories, both Kaine and Gilmore began eying takeover of the legislature in the midterm elections.  Kaine eyed the Virginia Senate, while Gilmore eyed the House of Delegates.  Both Governors took the lead on candidate recruitment and funding, and spent record amounts of money.  Gilmore with his successful start of repealing the car tax, and Kaine with his excellent speech after Virginia Tech had souring popularity ratings, and they were ready to spend political capital to gain control of the legislature.

And election nights in 1999 and 2007 ended with almost identical images.  Jim Gilmore raising the hand of Speaker-Elect Vance Wilkins, while Tim Kaine raised the hand of Majority Leader-Elect Dick Saslaw.

Both Kaine and Gilmore were also eying national politics and trying to make their names as key Governors.  Gilmore was an early endorser of Governor George Bush, and Kaine was an early endorser of Senator Barack Obama.  The Bush-McCain primary was still very close coming into Virginia, while the Obama-Clinton primary was also in doubt as Virginia came up on the calender.  Gilmore led Bush to a victory in Virginia, a key victory when Bush needed it most.  Obama crushed Clinton in Virginia during his February run of Delegates that proved to be decisive after Clinton began winning later primaries.

Meanwhile, both Gilmore and Kaine watched as the Governors that put them into office began running for the U.S. Senate.  In 2000, with John Warner in the Senate a victory by George Allen would give Republicans control of both U.S. Senate seats.  This would give Gilmore no real path to anything in the future, a frustration for him.  Meanwhile, in 2008 with Jim Webb in the Senate and Mark Warner running, it was clear to Kaine he had no real path to anything in the future, a great frustration for him.

But neither Kaine or Gilmore was content with being a party uniter in Virginia, while helping their favorite Presidential candidates.  Both jumped into June Congressional primaries in open seats.  Gilmore went 1-1, helping Eric Cantor defeat Steve Martin, while coming up short with Paul Jost against Jo Ann Davis.  Kaine only had one open seat, and helped Gerry Connolly defeat Leslie Byrne.  It's worth noting that in 2000 George Allen decided to stay as a uniter within the Republican Party and did not get involved in either Congressional primary while he was running for the Senate- Mark Warner did the same in 2008.  This kept both former Governors as nearly unanimously popular within their own parties, while Gilmore and Kaine both began to languish without a united party behind them any longer.

Meanwhile, both Governors were watching their approval ratings sink- as the legislature defied them.  Gilmore's battle was with the Republican Senate, while Kaine's battle has been with the Republican House of Delegates.  But as gridlock began in Richmond, voters blamed the Governor.  Gilmore's car tax stalled, Kaine failed to get anything done on transportation, and opinion polls began to show the public turning against their formerly popular Governors.

And that's all we know so far.  By the end of that Presidential year, George Allen had won the other U.S. Senate seat in 2000 (giving Virginia two GOP Senators, and Gilmore no obvious moves), and we expect Mark Warner to do the same this year in 2008 for Kaine, giving him two Democratic Senators and no obvious moves. 

We also know Democrats united in 2001 with no primary for Mark Warner, while Republicans have united behind Bob McDonnell in 2009.  Gilmore failed to stop the party from splintering in a fight between Mark Earley and John Hager.  Kaine so far appears to be unable to stop the party from splintering in a fight between Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds.

These careers have remarkable parallels so far.  A bright future destroyed by jealousy for the Governor before them and totally insulated from popular opinion as their advisers huddle around and tell them how popular they are.  The only question left is, can Tim Kaine do anything to save himself from being the Democratic version of Jim Gilmore?   Or is it too late?

We'll know if history is repeating itself if Kaine is selected by a President Obama as DNC Chair for the last year of his Governorship...

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The worst part of this parallel as Tim Kaine turns into a Democratic Jim Gilmore is that it means Bob McDonnell is the Republican Mark Warner.  This sucks.

Comments

Creigh Deeds can bring the party back together.

Moran will be a NoVA, liberal version of Jerry Kilgore--right down to having a weird accent.

[CarolineProgressive]

One grammatical question: A couple of times you used the word "souring" when I think you meant to use the word "soaring." For instance you said "Governor Allen and Governor Warner had souring popularity ratings" when I think you meant to say "Governor Allen and Governor Warner had soaring popularity ratings." Otherwise, a very interesting read.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Fixed, thanks.

Wow, good post Ben.

Great column.

[Gushing]

This is an amazing blog. Excellent work.

[I. Publius]

When he became Lt. Governor, Kaine was wildly popular in Richmond and among Democrats generally. I was at Mark Warner's inauguration, and when Tim Kaine was introduced, the crowd went absolutely wild.

Your NOVA-centric perspective very often clouds your vision, and it has in this post.

Great work Ben. One of your best posts in a long time.

Ipubes, sounds like partof this post is HOW Kaine became popular in Richmond. I don't see anything in here disputing that.

[RicJohn]

This is a really good post. I'm from the City of Richmond and live blocks away from Tim Kaine's "regular" residence so I have followed his political career very closely at the local level. Kaine was very popular among the Richmond African-American community even before he ran for governor. As far as the Gilmore/racial prosecution thing, I wasn't really aware of that (since I was only a few years old when Gilmore was Henrico C.A.) so thanks for that particular insight. I remember when Coretta Scott King came to Richmond in 2001 and Gilmore was very gracious to her, and he also seemed a lot more attentive to African-American voters than George Allen (who is reviled among the African-American middle class in Richmond for his pro-Confederate pandering when he was governor).

What is also amazing is how much Henrico has changed over the years. It has become WAY more diverse than it was before, and the development throughout the county is growing exponentially. In the Henrico of 2008, Gilmore would have had a much tougher time being elected. It will be interesting to see how well he does in the strongly Republican West End of the county in November.

Again, your analysis was really good, but Kaine is WAY more affable in person and in the press than Gilmore is--so will the overall perception be that Kaine is "ok" and not "bad"? I guess we'll have to see in the upcoming months.

[Ian Jordan]

Interesting, and seemingly spot on...on the surface. However, the parallels YOU DRAW rely on recreating events to create your narrative.

But once again your rarified blogger and Nova air leads you to believe democrats are not unified behind Gov. Kaine. Wrong.

I Pubes, your complete lack of perspective very often clouds your vision, as it does here.

Very cool post. Kaine is the new Gilmore.

Great post. This is why I come back amidst the less informative posts.

[Richmond Fan]

OMG. Having lived in Richmond during Tim Kaine's service as councilmember, mayor, LG and Governor, I can only say that you should get out of the Beltway more often.

Kaine did reach the "Main Street" crowd and still does, Ben. That's a badge of honor, and not a stain, for a guy who made his career handling race discrimination and pro bono death row appeals. You don't remember, because you weren't here to witness, the big strides the city made in racial reconciliation because both minority and Caucasian folks recognized an honest guy.

He did not play the race card. He rose above it and he still does. The leading civil rights icons in Richmond -- Mr. Hill among others -- supported Kaine as well as the leading "white" business folks.

I don't know what bullshit axe you have to grind, but Kaine is too good and decent for your poison.

[Ghost of Henry Howell]

This is a very intriguing post.

Two things worth mentioning:

First, Tim Kaine is a much better person than Jim Gilmore. There, someone finally said it! Although many disagree with his moves over the past 1-2 years, he is still gracious and friendly in person.

Two, Kaine did not run on the tax/transpo issue. His platform was just the opposite. It was Kilgore who ran on the idea of "regional taxes" (and the Repubs who promoted it in 07). Unfortunately, TK got stuck covering other people's bad ideas on transpo(abuser fees anyone?) That was his decision and it was a bad one. But different than JG's No Car Tax situation.

I have to be honest, this is one of Ben's best posts in a long time. I've been a little disappointed with the last few months on this blog but this post will go down as a classic.

[Not John S. Mosby]

The bottom line is as it's been for months now - Tim Kaine was a great guy as far as Ben and Lowell and the other liberal bloggers were concerned, until he endorsed Gerry Connolly instead of their bestest buddiette, Leslie Byrne. From that very moment until now and probably the future, Kaine is suddenly the anti-christ, he's horrible, he's a disgrace, yada yada.

What someone should do is go back before that time - check out NLS history linked on the right side of his page. Compare Ben's posts concerning Kaine before that night, and since that night. Go over to Lowell's page - same thing.

This is called petty character assassination, something I would expect the Republican/conservative blogs to be running. But once again, Ben shows why Democrats lose a lot of elections they should easily win. There's always some disgruntled nobody who seems determined to piss in the punch, there's always a disgruntled somebody who decides it's better to eat their own.

Ben thinks he's a somebody - I believe that he feels that HE AND ONLY HE IS 100% RESPONSIBLE for Jim Webb's victory, and while the macaca newsbreak was a hell of a scoop, since that time this blog's quality has declined. Now thankfully Ben is a nobody, so bashing Kaine and Connolly on this blog does relatively little damage to him. But it will one day come back to haunt him.

Ben has an ego that's even bigger than this site, and one day he'll want to run for office himself. And I'll be amongst many on FCDC that will have the pleasure of telling him to fuck off when he comes to us for support. I feel bad for any future candidate who decides to pay this guy as well. Ben's name is almost mudd these days, and if he can't get by his own foolishness and ego then he'll ultimately be a failure in whatever he decides he wants to do.

[Richmond Fan]

Ghost, you are right. And I am not believing the character assassination on this blog. Maybe the blogger is shilling for some other VP wannabe?

Did Charlie Kelly just send out an email? A few weeks ago, almost half of RK was saying in a poll that Kaine sucked, and all of the sudden good votes started coming in at once. Now- pro Kaine blog comments all start rolling it at once. Does Charlie think we don't see this happening?

Mosby,

You suggest that Ben is condemning Kaine and Connolly because he has some disagreement with them. You believe this is wrong.
You condemn Ben because you have a disagreement with him. You believe this is right?
Is there an inconsistency here or is this typical liberal logic?

Mosby:

Many Dems have been simmering for a long time over various things - support of the estate tax repeal, the transportation capitulation (HB 3202), his opposition to stem cell research, etc.

The Connolly endorsement, the Wise Power plant, etc. pushed many people who had been biting their lips over the edge.

These things were not the catalyst - they were the last straw for many who had been giving him the benefit of the doubt.

Anon 10:05 - that's bullshit. Mosby is spot-on. Ben and Lowell were huge Kaine fans right up until Kaine endorsed Connolly.

And now they're bitter at Kaine just because he wouldn't support a habitual loser like Byrne.

Pathetic, transparent post.

Some of us admire Ben and Lowell. It is called LOYALTY. They are loyal to people that endorsed Webb, and now people that endorsed Byrne. This will help them get more supporters for their candidates in the future, because people will know they will earn real loyalty instead of a knife in the back that a certain running mate of Tim Kaine got this year.

[charlie]

Byrne is a loser.

Kaine is a bigger loser. His little song and dance routine works in Richmond, but doesn't work in the rest of the state.

That all being said, as a Democrat I would have been willing to support him through all of this -- and privately grouse about him -- but his support of the abuser fees made me see him Kaine as his truly is.

A devil worshiper.

Yes, Tim Kaine is satan.

The sooner Obama appoints him Secretary of Energy the better. Kaine is so stupid he might take the job before Obama is elected, which would save all of us the problem of getting rid of him.