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Creigh Deeds can bring the party back together.

Moran will be a NoVA, liberal version of Jerry Kilgore--right down to having a weird accent.

CarolineProgressive

One grammatical question: A couple of times you used the word "souring" when I think you meant to use the word "soaring." For instance you said "Governor Allen and Governor Warner had souring popularity ratings" when I think you meant to say "Governor Allen and Governor Warner had soaring popularity ratings." Otherwise, a very interesting read.

Not Larry Sabato

Fixed, thanks.

Wow, good post Ben.

Great column.

Gushing

This is an amazing blog. Excellent work.

I. Publius

When he became Lt. Governor, Kaine was wildly popular in Richmond and among Democrats generally. I was at Mark Warner's inauguration, and when Tim Kaine was introduced, the crowd went absolutely wild.

Your NOVA-centric perspective very often clouds your vision, and it has in this post.

Great work Ben. One of your best posts in a long time.

Ipubes, sounds like partof this post is HOW Kaine became popular in Richmond. I don't see anything in here disputing that.

RicJohn

This is a really good post. I'm from the City of Richmond and live blocks away from Tim Kaine's "regular" residence so I have followed his political career very closely at the local level. Kaine was very popular among the Richmond African-American community even before he ran for governor. As far as the Gilmore/racial prosecution thing, I wasn't really aware of that (since I was only a few years old when Gilmore was Henrico C.A.) so thanks for that particular insight. I remember when Coretta Scott King came to Richmond in 2001 and Gilmore was very gracious to her, and he also seemed a lot more attentive to African-American voters than George Allen (who is reviled among the African-American middle class in Richmond for his pro-Confederate pandering when he was governor).

What is also amazing is how much Henrico has changed over the years. It has become WAY more diverse than it was before, and the development throughout the county is growing exponentially. In the Henrico of 2008, Gilmore would have had a much tougher time being elected. It will be interesting to see how well he does in the strongly Republican West End of the county in November.

Again, your analysis was really good, but Kaine is WAY more affable in person and in the press than Gilmore is--so will the overall perception be that Kaine is "ok" and not "bad"? I guess we'll have to see in the upcoming months.

Ian Jordan

Interesting, and seemingly spot on...on the surface. However, the parallels YOU DRAW rely on recreating events to create your narrative.

But once again your rarified blogger and Nova air leads you to believe democrats are not unified behind Gov. Kaine. Wrong.

I Pubes, your complete lack of perspective very often clouds your vision, as it does here.

Very cool post. Kaine is the new Gilmore.

Great post. This is why I come back amidst the less informative posts.

Richmond Fan

OMG. Having lived in Richmond during Tim Kaine's service as councilmember, mayor, LG and Governor, I can only say that you should get out of the Beltway more often.

Kaine did reach the "Main Street" crowd and still does, Ben. That's a badge of honor, and not a stain, for a guy who made his career handling race discrimination and pro bono death row appeals. You don't remember, because you weren't here to witness, the big strides the city made in racial reconciliation because both minority and Caucasian folks recognized an honest guy.

He did not play the race card. He rose above it and he still does. The leading civil rights icons in Richmond -- Mr. Hill among others -- supported Kaine as well as the leading "white" business folks.

I don't know what bullshit axe you have to grind, but Kaine is too good and decent for your poison.

Ghost of Henry Howell

This is a very intriguing post.

Two things worth mentioning:

First, Tim Kaine is a much better person than Jim Gilmore. There, someone finally said it! Although many disagree with his moves over the past 1-2 years, he is still gracious and friendly in person.

Two, Kaine did not run on the tax/transpo issue. His platform was just the opposite. It was Kilgore who ran on the idea of "regional taxes" (and the Repubs who promoted it in 07). Unfortunately, TK got stuck covering other people's bad ideas on transpo(abuser fees anyone?) That was his decision and it was a bad one. But different than JG's No Car Tax situation.

I have to be honest, this is one of Ben's best posts in a long time. I've been a little disappointed with the last few months on this blog but this post will go down as a classic.

Not John S. Mosby

The bottom line is as it's been for months now - Tim Kaine was a great guy as far as Ben and Lowell and the other liberal bloggers were concerned, until he endorsed Gerry Connolly instead of their bestest buddiette, Leslie Byrne. From that very moment until now and probably the future, Kaine is suddenly the anti-christ, he's horrible, he's a disgrace, yada yada.

What someone should do is go back before that time - check out NLS history linked on the right side of his page. Compare Ben's posts concerning Kaine before that night, and since that night. Go over to Lowell's page - same thing.

This is called petty character assassination, something I would expect the Republican/conservative blogs to be running. But once again, Ben shows why Democrats lose a lot of elections they should easily win. There's always some disgruntled nobody who seems determined to piss in the punch, there's always a disgruntled somebody who decides it's better to eat their own.

Ben thinks he's a somebody - I believe that he feels that HE AND ONLY HE IS 100% RESPONSIBLE for Jim Webb's victory, and while the macaca newsbreak was a hell of a scoop, since that time this blog's quality has declined. Now thankfully Ben is a nobody, so bashing Kaine and Connolly on this blog does relatively little damage to him. But it will one day come back to haunt him.

Ben has an ego that's even bigger than this site, and one day he'll want to run for office himself. And I'll be amongst many on FCDC that will have the pleasure of telling him to fuck off when he comes to us for support. I feel bad for any future candidate who decides to pay this guy as well. Ben's name is almost mudd these days, and if he can't get by his own foolishness and ego then he'll ultimately be a failure in whatever he decides he wants to do.

Richmond Fan

Ghost, you are right. And I am not believing the character assassination on this blog. Maybe the blogger is shilling for some other VP wannabe?

Did Charlie Kelly just send out an email? A few weeks ago, almost half of RK was saying in a poll that Kaine sucked, and all of the sudden good votes started coming in at once. Now- pro Kaine blog comments all start rolling it at once. Does Charlie think we don't see this happening?

Mosby,

You suggest that Ben is condemning Kaine and Connolly because he has some disagreement with them. You believe this is wrong.
You condemn Ben because you have a disagreement with him. You believe this is right?
Is there an inconsistency here or is this typical liberal logic?

Mosby:

Many Dems have been simmering for a long time over various things - support of the estate tax repeal, the transportation capitulation (HB 3202), his opposition to stem cell research, etc.

The Connolly endorsement, the Wise Power plant, etc. pushed many people who had been biting their lips over the edge.

These things were not the catalyst - they were the last straw for many who had been giving him the benefit of the doubt.

Anon 10:05 - that's bullshit. Mosby is spot-on. Ben and Lowell were huge Kaine fans right up until Kaine endorsed Connolly.

And now they're bitter at Kaine just because he wouldn't support a habitual loser like Byrne.

Pathetic, transparent post.

Some of us admire Ben and Lowell. It is called LOYALTY. They are loyal to people that endorsed Webb, and now people that endorsed Byrne. This will help them get more supporters for their candidates in the future, because people will know they will earn real loyalty instead of a knife in the back that a certain running mate of Tim Kaine got this year.

charlie

Byrne is a loser.

Kaine is a bigger loser. His little song and dance routine works in Richmond, but doesn't work in the rest of the state.

That all being said, as a Democrat I would have been willing to support him through all of this -- and privately grouse about him -- but his support of the abuser fees made me see him Kaine as his truly is.

A devil worshiper.

Yes, Tim Kaine is satan.

The sooner Obama appoints him Secretary of Energy the better. Kaine is so stupid he might take the job before Obama is elected, which would save all of us the problem of getting rid of him.

ANON1033: Excellent point. Anyone smart in the future will look at this and think do they want to support Connolly/Kaine who will fuck them in a second if needed, or the blogs that will be loyal even in tough times. Talk about a no brainer. Ben and RK have won this war, checkmate. It just needs to play out over a few years before people know it.

Hokie Guru

Ben, excellent post. William Kristol of Fox News thinks that Obama is going to pick Kaine as the VP.

Hokie Guru

I just donated to your efforts, Ben. I think this is the best post I've ever seen on this blog.

Felix Macacawitz

What makes this post so good is if it didn't end today and continued through the end of the term it could be the basis of an amazing book. This is basically getting to see history *live* while it is happening.

Outstanding job.

Not Frank Hargrove

Somehow, I do not remember Mark Warner being particularly hostile to Tim Kaine and his views. I was at Kaine's Primary Victory party at Bob Ball's Holiday Inn on the Boulevard in Richmond, and I seem to remember that a certain future governor, Mr. Mark Warner, showing up and giving him rather effusive congratulations for all to hear. Considering the geographical diversity of the Lt. Gov. candidates that year, he could have been "unavailable", but there he was. So quit trying to say Warner was not keen on Kaine. He did not support Leslie Byrne, and it is eating you alive that he is even being considered to be Veep for Obama. I certainly hope he does not get it; the thought of Bolling as Governor makes me puke. Nonetheless, Leslie lost as she is apt to do and that is it. Get over it. PS: Your slash at Cooter in a previous post when you were by far the worst thing around that campaign is almost laughable if it was not so sad. 2002 was a big GOP year, and Cantor held all of the high cards. Your mopey loser attitude helped Cooter not at all, and I see that you have not run a campaign since. You got lucky with this blog, fatboy, but don't trash Cooter to burnish your horrible campaign resumé.

Couple points

Its hillarious how the Democratic Party Establishment are bashing this post can't see the forest through the trees much

A couple more posts like this and NLS is worth reading again

Virginia Centrist

Ben this was very well-done, as the other posters noted. As I have said before, Virginia is a cyclical state politically. Eventually, one party overreaches, and the voters correct the balance.

Pete in Williamsburg

Ben,

I'm still a fan of yours and this blog.

However, you're absolutely wrong. Kaine is an outstanding governor with an unlimited future in politics. He's made transportation his highest priority and if only a few more moderates were in the House GOP, we'd all be talking about the critically needed improvements on the way for Virginia's roads.

You're too invested in this Connolly nonsense. 60 topics in a row? You had already overplayed your hand but then to pounce on Kaine the moment he declined to board the anti-Connolly wagon just showed a lack of seriousness.

Get back to the good stuff. You're pumping a dry well with this Kaine bashing routine.

Good stuff!!! While I don’t agree with all of it, the column certainly warrants the discussion it has received. I don’t believe Ben’s being bitter. If that were the case he could find other things to write about. I see it as a challenge to the Governor to make some minor changes in course or risk a similar fate to Gilmore. It doesn’t say his fate is that of Gilmore’s. Also, Ben’s not the first to make this comparison. Though they were not as analytical, I’ve heard several legislators and other “Richmond folks” on both sides of the isle compare the two Governor’s in their approach. Kaine fans might not like it, but they dismiss it. Great job Ben! This is why you have the loyal fallowing from all corners of the Commonwealth.

Gilmore was never seriously considered for VP.

Logan

I suspect Kaine's name has been leaked as being vetting now, is simply a reward for his early support for Obama, rather than a real sign he will get the VP slot.

Biden, Bayh, or even Clinton seem more likely. (And even she is highly unlikely.)

I wish Webb were still in the running though, as he was my top VP pick.

I have a feeling its coming soon (this week), and that its Kaine.

Hokie Guru

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/12115

7:32 PM could be correct

Ben = Ahab.
Kaine = White Whale.

Gnarly

Another eery parallel....Gilmore had a secretary named Kaine and Kaine had a secretary named Gilmore......oh nevermind dude...was thinking of something else.

Matt

The question is, if Kaine resigns, and Bolling becomes Governor, how does that affect the Republicans?

This has been and will always be the key line of Ben's hatred toward Kaine:

"Kaine only had one open seat, and helped Gerry Connolly defeat Leslie Byrne."

Ben, get over it. Kaine's a good man and will do a great job as chair.

Sean Holihan

Regardless of what Kaine has not been able to accomplish because of a Republican controlled House that moves in lockstop, Kaine has been a godsend to Democrats across our state because of his campaigning efforts.

Who was the biggest factor in the 07 state races? Has there been a better ally for those running for the House of Delegates or State Senate than this man? There may be those that do not like him in this state, but then why are his approval ratings so high?

The Chair of the DNC has to be able to fundraise and win seats across the country--something he's shown the ability to do in spades in a default Republican state.

This bodes well for us next year. Period.

Not Hussein (formerly Not Ben)

"The worst part of this parallel as Tim Kaine turns into a Democratic Jim Gilmore is that it means Bob McDonnell is the Republican Mark Warner. This sucks."

Somehow, I have a hard time seeing Kaine's ascendancy to the DNC chairmanship as playing a major factor in how well Bob McDonnell does.

say what?...

Despite disagreeing with Ben on some subjects in the past, I really enjoyed his latest post. I've seen many personal insults in the comments, but few if any absolute rebuttals.

Why the fuck are there comments from July 2008 at the beginning of this thread?

Ben, you're nuts.

One thing Kaine has that Gilmore didn't:

Approval ratings at the end of his term in the upper 50s.

Not Larry Sabato

It's not the end of his term- Gilmore's approval wasn't in the toilet after 3 years either- it was the final year while he was RNC Chair when he started to dive.

Keep hoping for that, Ben.

It won't happen. No matter how much he dissed your girl Leslie.

nunya

tim kaine is a good man, and a very gifted communicator - wouldn't have ever wanted to be in a courtroom across from that guy. he was obama's most effective advocate on the sunday morning talk shows, and his gift for political communication will be put to good use as DNC chairman. he is a little too liberal for my tastes but he seems like a decent guy as well as a very, very smart one - which seems to be an important criteria for obama. obama has good judgment, and this seems to me to be a good choice.

NLS's hostility towards TK is transparently petty - and for what? not bowing before queen leslie? - but it is sort of funny, even if i don't understand it all that much (why the hell is he so hung up on leslie byrne? is she his aunt or something?).

its pathetic how much you dems get hardons for Kaine go back to Blue Commonwealth. It just further proves Bens point. The only people that like Gilmore or Kaine are the hyperpartisans.

Tim Kaine is a destructive selfish individual who has always looked out for himself above anyone else which makes the DNC position perfect for him actually. He can't govern his way out of a paperbag.
He makes Ben look like a saint :-p

Yowsa

Great prediction at the end -- McDonnell for Governor!!!

t

Ben, please do not use the Lord's name in vain.

Sean Holihan

Right. Those 58% of Virginian's polled in October who said Kaine was doing a good or great job are obviously just the hyperpartisans out there.

Grapes and T = Log Cabin

T, we know you're still having fun blowing grapes... you know you like his fruit.

Arl Dem

Anyone who would seriously compare Kaine and Gilmore is delusional and far less in touch with Virginia politics than he thinks he is.

Arl Dem,

Rough monday eh. Feel free to start your own blog.

Interesting parallels. I also think the Peter Principle is at work. I guess it's too much to ask for a full-time Governor.

Not Bill Howell

Brilliant post, Ben. One dot remains unconnected: Gilmore was a disaster in the RNC job and was out on his ear in no time. It undermined his standing at home, and (along with the disastrous '01 session) started him on the road to the pathetic figure he is today. That's the good part of this parallel's future.

But buh....KAINE DIDN'T ENDORSE LESLIE!

dcBill

I would have greatly preferred Byrne, but Kaine is not to blame. This is all nonsense.

What I want to know is HOW WILL WE DEFEAT TERRY MCAULIFFE? I just got a robocall from him and had to take a shower.

Not Guy Incognito

I've met Tim Kaine. I've met Jim Gilmore.

Tim Kaine is no Jim Gilmore, and I mean that in a good way.

Thank you, DC bill. We need to stop McHillary NOW!

charlie

Is the chair of the DNC the most inconsequential position available right now, with D in charge of the Senate, House and White House?

What a bitch-slap Obama just gave Kaine.

Phil C.

I will say this...Ben did a very good job with this post to make his argument, despite the disagreements in the above comments. This is why, while I rarely agree with Ben, I still read this blog.

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