Moran Campaign in Last 48 Hours

First, Democrats came within 16 votes of losing his seat in the House of Delegates. Then, Delegates elected the only Northern Virginia Democrat NOT supporting his campaign as their new Caucus Chair. Today Brian announces he has raised $755,000 in the last 6 months. Over 180 days that averages just over $4,000 raised a day. Given the overhead of the campaign I would be surprised if they banked any cash- that isn't much above day to day expenses.

Brian's campaign is melting.

Comments

Lionel Spruill is only charging him $246/day ($7500/mo. = $90K/yr. divided by 365).

http://hamptonroads.com/2008/07/spruill-working-paid-consultant-morans-campaign

$4,000/day could net him 16 Lionels.

With that kind of firepower he'd be unstoppable.

Who makes a better dorothy? Creigh or Terry?

Who makes a better dorothy? Creigh or Terry?

Posted by: | January 15, 2009 at 11:30 AM

NEITHER!

It was Brian who threw it on himself. His campaign is over and he has no Richmond platform to operate in the media, Creigh will score points in the Dem controlled State Senate, and Terry will raise $500K over the next quarter--if not more.

A self-inflicted wound.

"NEITHER!

It was Brian who threw it on himself. His campaign is over and he has no Richmond platform to operate in the media, Creigh will score points in the Dem controlled State Senate, and Terry will raise $500K over the next quarter--if not more.

A self-inflicted wound."

Welcome James Martin

[Pete in Williamsburg]

At the point where we're analyzing which caucus chair is the best for which candidate, that's beyond my meager levels of analysis, though I am glad to learn about it.

That said, from a rookie perspective, sure, Brian seems to be in trouble with the flak of his resignation so fresh and the McAuliffe money getting all the attention. However, elections are long processes. The straight-talk-express was on cinderblocks in Decemember 2007 yet McCain sealed the nomination solidly. No one's campaign is over.

[metric]

I tend to agree with Pete, its not over till its over. It is true Moran will not be able to stay in the news with legislative initiatives but I think 45 days of little news coverage out of Richmond is a good exchange for the type of fund raising he will have to do in the next few weeks. If the full fund raising report as far as money going out is as bad as people think he will have to do some major restructuring.

I do not think the McCain analogy holds though. Republican primary voters ended up holding their noses and voting for McCain, in large part, because they thought he was the most electable candidate. I do not think Moran can make the same claim.

1:25pm: Not James Martin. Lots of us in Fairfax are saying this same thing.

PiW: So, if Brian is McCain, then Terry is Romney and Creigh is Mike? So, then Bob is Barack?

Geesh, you are reaching with the McCain analogy considering that no one I know is interested in giving any $$ to Brian at this time.

[Todd Smyth]

Our Democratic nominee will need the door knocking and phone banking support of every Democrat in Virginia to win. T-Mac can not overcome the large percentage of Obama Democrats who dislike him because of his endless cheer leading of the HRC campaign long past mathematical probability and deep into bankruptcy. Hillary supporters are unhappy with him because there was no effort to campaign in Virginia during the primaries despite the fact that the national headquarters was in Virginia and McAuliffe lives here. T-Mac can not win the general in 2009 and is therefore a non-starter.

Too many people assume that if Creigh were to get the nomination, all of NOVA would fall in behind him and that just isn't true. Deeds can not overcome the large percentage of Democrats who will not support him because of his full Senate voting support of the Marshall Newman Amendment. There are too many Democrats who believe in equality and civil rights, who will not do the hard work to get Creigh elected in a general election. Deeds can not win the general in 2009 and is therefore a non-starter.

[Todd Smyth]

Our Democratic nominee will need the door knocking and phone banking support of every Democrat in Virginia to win. T-Mac can not overcome the large percentage of Obama Democrats who dislike him because of his endless cheer leading of the HRC campaign long past mathematical probability and deep into bankruptcy. Hillary supporters are unhappy with him because there was no effort to campaign in Virginia during the primaries despite the fact that the national headquarters was in Virginia and McAuliffe lives in Virginia. T-Mac can not win the general in 2009 and is therefore a non-starter.

Too many people assume that if Creigh were to get the nomination, all of NOVA would fall in behind him and that just isn't true. Deeds can not overcome the large percentage of Democrats who will not support him because of his full Senate voting support of the Marshall Newman Amendment. There are too many Democrats who believe in equality and civil rights, who will not do the hard work to get Creigh elected in a general election. Deeds can not win the general in 2009 and is therefore a non-starter.

[Not Hussein (formerly Not Ben)]

There are, at most, 100 Democrats in the state who won't vote for Creigh because of Marshall-Newman. There are probably several thousand voters downstate who would vote for Creigh, but would never consider a liberal Democrat like Brian Moran.

Todd:

Let's look at reality. In 2005, Deeds voted for the Marriage Amendment as did many (most?) Democratic legislators. That fall he got 57.7% in Fairfax, 70.3% in Alexandria, and 73.1% in Arlington. He also got 77.7% in C'ville, which ain't exactly a conservative hotbed.

Sorry but the #'s are not with you by any stretch of the imagination (and that's back when it was an actual issue)

[Todd Smyth]

The Virginia Marshall-Newman amendment is the only US legislation that prevents the state from recognizing private contracts and medical directives. South Carolina's amendment explicitly says it does not do this. What we ended up with was the worst example of current and active institutionalized discrimination against a minority in the United States and Creigh voted for every bit of it.

[Loudoun Insider]

Please make the 2009 Governor election a referendum on Marshall-Newman! Ben, you are right, the liberal wingnuts are trying to destroy your party like the GOP wingnuts have done. Please, nominate Brian Moran and make opposition to Marshall-Newman the primary plank in the platform.

Todd: Your interpretation of the Amendment is not correct. The PR campaign has been over for 3 years now. The reality is that the law of VA never changed on these issues.

[Not John S. Mosby]

So Todd, in your opinion, if Creigh is the candidate, Democrats in NoVA will either not vote and allow an alumnus of Regent University, the fundamentalist christian brainwashing academy down in VA Beach, to be governor.

Ok, maybe some ultraliberals who always vote for Ralph Nader or something, but not rank and file.

Bottom line, Brian has a Boston accent and is running a shit campaign. He was never going to do well outside of NoVA, and Terry entering the race has caused him to go completely off the rails.

Terry would have a very hard time winning because he's a big famous national Democrat who doesn't have any real Virginia experience. That said, he could win, but it would be tough.

Creigh is from outside NoVA and, if not for a lack of some cash back in 2005, would be AG right now and the discussion would be over. He's the best choice for all of Virginia, not just NoVA. He's the pragmatic choice, the guy who is the most electable. It will still be a long and hard race, but Creigh comes without the baggage of Brian and Terry.

[Todd Smyth]

Not John S. Mosby, It's not about who will or won't vote for Creigh, it's about who will not get out and do the hard work to get him elected and that's most of NOVA. Partly because of his Republican voting record and partly because less than 100 people know who he is. Creigh is a non-starter. You still assume NOVA will rise up to help him and they won't.

[Not John S. Mosby]

Todd, that's part of the campaign - by November, everyone should know who Creigh is. He's well known within the party and the base - he did run for statewide office in 2005, and only lost by 400 votes. Now, ask anyone south of the Occoquan who Brian Moran is, and they either won't know or they'll think he's Jim and say a Congressman. Terry, political junkies on both sides know him, the general public, much less so.

So my question, again: do you think that NOVA won't support Creigh, and will willingly allow a fundamentalist Christian extremist like McDonnell to become governor without a fight?

[Todd Smyth]

To answer your question, yes. Creigh will not be able to gain enough support in NOVA to win against McDonnell.

[Todd Smyth]

I know you are assuming it but it just wont happen. The low turn out results for Herring are actually a bad sign for Creigh. Everyone assumes NOVA is a lock for any Democrat and it just isn't.

[Not John S. Mosby]

Todd,

Do you know why the turnout was so bad in the 48th and why the vote was so close? Do you know what the GOTV plan was in Alexandria?

There wasn't one. Plain and simple, Alexandria Democrats met last weekend and that's about it. There really wasn't a campaign on the Democrats part at all, and anyone - Democrat or Republican - who uses the 46th as a yardstick is way off base.

So, by your definition, McDonnell is going to cruise to victory, because everyone in NoVA will stay home this year because Brian isn't on the ballot? or because Terry isn't? We won't support Creigh because he's not from here? Steve Shannon loses as well, or do we vote for him and undervote for Gov/Lt. Gov? All the House of Delegates seats, we lose those as well or do we split ticket?