Is Joe Abbey Saving Team Deeds?

Anyone who knows Democratic Primaries in Virginia and where voters come from (geography, ideologically and their demographics) has known Creigh Deeds faced an uphill battle in his primary for Governor.  Even when it was Deeds-Moran, the Brian Moran campaign always had the feel of having the upper-hand over Deeds despite his statewide campaign in 2005.  With Terry McAuliffe in the race, Deeds is left with his old problems plus new ones of having an opponent who can compete with him in every part of Virginia.

Yet despite these challenges the Deeds campaign is hanging in there and seems to have an outside shot of winning on June 9th.  The credit for this turn around seems to go to Joe Abbey, the Deeds Campaign Manager who started in December.

A number of things have happened since early December when Joe took over:

1)  Creigh has moved his office from Richmond to Charlottesville. 

This is a much bigger deal than it might seem.  One of Creigh's biggest weaknesses for years was the amount he relied on thinking from insiders (i.e. lobbyists) in Richmond.  These are the same people who advised him to run a Warner01 like campaign in 2005, causing him to finish as the lowest performing Democrat in all three major metropolitan areas in Virginia (NoVA, Hampton Roads and Richmond).  Creigh also interviewed a few of these lobbyists to be his Campaign Manager this year. 

Moving the office to Charlottesville helps shut out some of this insider noise from the campaign.  But it also allows for a re-branding of Creigh- from a rural Bath County candidate to the State Senator from Charlottesville.  There is a very significant side to this in Northern Virginia and other urban areas- most primary voters have an image in their head of counties in Virginia they have never heard of that doesn't exactly match their goals on where to move the state.  Having a candidate from Charlottesville is a much easier leap for urban and suburban primary voters to get around. 

2)  Creigh has stopped trying to be the candidate for everyone

Another weakness of Creigh over the past few years is he is a genuinely nice guy.  Sometimes, too nice.  Creigh's campaign was mindlessly competing everywhere and seemed to have no targets on where he needed to do well.  I'm seeing that begin to turn around- the campaign is the lightest staffed and they have started to skip events in areas they can't make a difference in.  This focusing has allowed Creigh to actually compete in the events and areas he wants to because he is no longer spread as thin.  A great example of this came in the last week.  At the Alexandria Presidents Day Parade, Creigh had no staff and no visibility there.  Creigh is going to finish 3rd place in Brian's hometown, I think that is the right call to skip a parade there.  Meanwhile, at the Mt. Vernon straw poll this weekend, Creigh competed and took 2nd place- getting a big moral victory over Terry McAuliffe in Fairfax.  Both decisions were the right ones strategically and advanced the campaign.

3)  Creigh is staying focused on the session and not politics

This is a big one.  I expected Creigh's decision to stay in Richmond for this session to be a disaster, his campaign was already seemed to have ADD and being the only candidate in session was going to make that even worse.  As it turned out, I was totally wrong here.  Creigh has managed to stay focused on what is going on in the session, has not been subject to a "youtube" disaster moment from the floor and is in the mix on a number of good progressive bills moving through the General Assembly this year.  The decision to "stay and fight" in the session has given Creigh some extra gravitas and finally got his campaign a consistent message. 
I still don't know if the numbers are there to win- but this has been an excellent turnaround for the campaign, and if this momentum keeps up, I think Creigh actually has a real chance to win this primary on June 9th.

Comments

[Mark Brooks]

Why? Is Joe video tracking Brian Moran's cousin?

[brian]

Its past three...

[Left of the Hill]

It's 3;26 and still no story. Way to give empty promises.

4:13...

[Doug]

Is there any polling on this race? I have no idea where it stands, or care all that much, but the only thing I see on local news is McAullife. And him not that much. And this is SWVA, so its not like we're the big swing on the tree.

So, where's the polling?

The only polling I've seen was a few weeks ago:

Moran 18%
McAuliffe 18%
Deeds 11%

There was a large percentage of undecided voters.

[Not a Beatle]

Deeds will campaign with "Abbey Road" albums!

[RicJohn]

Well, McAuliffe is likely to cannibalize a bit of Moran's NoVa vote in Fairfax and Alexandria if he can get his supporters out. If Deeds does really well with an array of African-American constituencies, especially in Norfolk, Hampton, Richmond, Henrico, Chesapeake, and in the southern Virginia counties, coupled with his strength in western Virginia, he actually could do a lot better than people are giving him credit for. It would be nice for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate to be able to win more than 45% of the vote in Southwestern Virginia and in places like Henry, Pittsylvania, and Rockbridge. Deeds can do all of this and win handily in NoVa, as well as compete for military votes in Hampton Roads. For all of the talk about McDonnell's strengths, he is actually quite weak in his own "home" region. When he ran for Attorney General in 2005, turnout was abysmal in Virginia Beach and he didn't even win there by that much (for someone who represented much of the city for 15 years in the House of Delegates).

I think more than 50 percent of Democrats are still undecided, so that gives everyone a chance to see who would be the better nominee. I'm hoping its Mr. Deeds, but Brian Moran would be fine with me. However, McAuliffe would not be a good candidate and he doesn't really connect with average people.

Notice how Ben keeps posting poning his updates. Could it be because the person he pays to do any real analysis is busy and doesn't have enough time to deal with Ben's dumbass site.

No matter what happens at the statewide level, at the national level the ultra-Socialist Democrat Congress and BHO has nothing to push but "stimulus" that is really a pay-off to ACORN, radical leftist Planned Parenthood, and the parasitic Teacher's Unions.

The whole Democrat Party is a complete JOKE!

[The Democrat Party is TOAST!]

Wait until 2010 and 2012. Just as Bill Clinton's massive tax-hike led to a recession and a Republican takeover, so will Obama's massive spending and deficits.

Deal with it, liberal Democrat hacks!

To Anonymous at 7:40 p.m.: Can you go ahead and point out from what part of the stimulus bill Planned Parenthood receives money? Or are you just regurgitating Rush Limbaugh and really have no idea what you are talking about?

The Porkulus included money for birth control and $1,000 STD prevention. Of course they won't mention Planned Parenthood (or ACORN) by name, but they WILL get the money. Both for $1,000/pop STD "education" and "neighborhood stabilization".

Just more money for BHO's ACORN and pro-abort supporters.

[notsophialoren]

I thought this post was about Joe Abbey and his managing the Deeds campaign. Stick to the subject. Anyhow Joe Abbey is a decent, smart person and was the best thing Deeds has done. Deeds issues are not mine so cannot support him, but love Joe Abbey.

8:40
You really should at least read and try to understand this legislation and what thing really mean before you attempt to tell others they are wrong.

Are you just ignoring reality or are you not smart enough to understand how these things work?

or maybe just a kid playing in the adult world like your idols Pelosi, Reid and Obambi.

9:15, you fucking rock!

Show those cock-sucking libs who is BOSS!

[Conservative Observer]

I love who ever posted 9:15!

Get a screen name, I'd love to follow you!

[Curious]

Don't know how these trolls are, and it's hard to get by the NLS back-handed compliments about Deeds' campaign manager, but there are more than a few things going in Deeds' favor.

(1) 34% could win this nomination, and 40% certainly will

(2) TMAC is calving off BM's NOVA trove

(3) In a 3-way race, finding voters in places the big dogs aren't looking is a great strategy (see Tim Kaine LG nomination strategy)

(4) That last 30% of Dem voters, the ones who will put the nominee over the top, will likely be the more moderate and the ones who connect with the most genuine candidate. Brian is inspiring and motivating but he comes across as too Disney. TMAC is, let's face it, all about him. Deeds ain't the most polished candidate in terms of the slick TV image, but he's real, authentic and who he is. That will sell in this market. Finally, whether some folks in NOVA like it or not, there is a a sizable percentage of VA Dems for whom the hunting and sporting arms issue is important.

All anyone needs to do is get to the magic 40%. You can buy your way there, but TMAC is no Mark Warner. Mark had the hat and the cattle.

And as nice as Brian is, I just don't see it happening for him, and he has only TMAC to blame.

My bet is either Deeds or Moran switches down-ballot. The one who doesn't gets the nom.

Republicans enjoy sucking Rush's dick.

[LOL YOU LOG CABS LIKE GAY SEX 24-7]

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/10/31/america/NA-GEN-US-State-Lawmaker-Extortion.php

9:46 PM, at least when a Democrat gets caught, it's with a woman, you fucking douchebag. Apparently, we can fit all of you "guys" in the closet.

[Doug]

Such exciting and gay banter last night and this morning. It seems t/grapes has changed his screen name and is all dressed up with no disco to go to!

Well, it is entertaining, in an eye wash with acid sort of way.

When Joe the Plumber turned conservative sitting in a bar talking with a stranger: "Save an old lady from a fire like I did 5 years ago, you know Mrs. McGrady and do you get called Joe the Hero? Work at the soup kitchen, do you get a knickname? Volunteer building houses in New Orleans, get a nice knickname? Work for fair voting rights, do you get called Joe the Fair? No, no, but suck one cock...."

doug,
only problem with that stupid attempt at humor is that his nickname was "the plumber".

On the other hand, I have heard some on here refer to you lovingly as "fudgie"

[Doug]

You calling me fat? You calling me fat!?

I'm sorry, I should have saved that one for Guckert, but he's so yesterday.

Now, so, Governor. It looks like more people are undecided rather than decided, so one would think it now comes down to outreach, right? I have gotten calls from, had a reception in my building for and have seen commercials for only McAuliffe. Sounds like he's got backing and money, so I'll just go ahead and call the primary for him. I don't really care that much, but that's the call here, February 19, 2009.

doug,
I don't think 7:07 is calling you fat, I think he is calling you gay. (I could be wrong)

[Doug]

Ok, I don't follow Gay code too well, so I thought he meant I was eating too much. Whew! Gay is much better.

Speaking of t/grapes- has he landed himself in the klink for harrassing men in the park again? Haven't seen him in a while.

[Mark Brooks]

Ahem. It's not morning anymore.

Ben, put down the box of donuts and tell us all about Joe Abbey.

WTF? Where is the update?

[Jay]

interesting

[Kevin]

Mr.Deeds goes to Richmond.
Hey Ben, Frank's 2/28.Get a ride.

[LAS]

I think Creigh Deeds did quite well at the Mt Vernon straw poll--particularly as it was quite near Brian's home turf and Brian definitely has the hometown advantage.

Creigh also worked the crowd extremely well--speaking to various voters (myself included) on a myriad of issues, remembering names, and just generally showing himself to be a nice guy AND a well-informed one.

Finally, I think kudos should be given to Creigh for making the effort and showing up at the Mt Vernon straw poll--that took some guts and it showed class.

Terry McAuliffe, OTOH, turns out to be kind of a jerk. Yapping about the importance of grassroots outreach and THEN finding a way to blow off a local dem committee in the most disrespectful way possible--no reason, no excuses--is just amazingly hypocritical, craven amd rude.

I guess he's only interested in fundraising when it goes directly into his own campaign pockets.

[econlibVA]

Creigh has a very good chance to win the nomination. A race with three or more strong candidates has different dynamics than a two-way race, and Deeds is well-positioned to take advantage of these. The most important thing in a three-way race is to stay positive. Both McAuliffe and Deeds seem to understand this, while Moran (and some of his supporters) don't. If you try and tear down another candidate, you tear yourself down as well. We saw this in Iowa in 2004, where Dean was torn down by Gephardt, and Kerry won.

If Moran goes negative on McAuliffe, he's likely to give Deeds the nomination. In fact, that's a reasonably likely scenario, much more so that I would have thought at the beginning of the year.

[BlueAngel]

Creigh will win because he is a winner!

[RicJohn]

Creigh Deeds has always been a strong candidate who is routinely underestimated. I have always felt as though he would be favored to beat Bob McDonnell if he could get out of the Democratic primary. Deeds has been running an issues-based campaign and even McDonnell is trying to masquerade as a "moderate" Republican. This is why money is so important...the Democrats need to blanket the state with McDonnell attack ads beginning now so that he can be defined early.

McDonnell spinning his thin AG record should not be acceptable.

[Bigvinu]

There is a big reason while staying the session helped. Deeds has been endorsed by Senators Saslaw, Whipple, Petersen, Puckett, Marsh and Reynolds. Neither McAuliffe nor Moran can boast that level of support.

I'm willing to bet that staying and helping his Senate allies helped him with those endorsement, and (if he wins) pass legislation through the Senate.

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[ana]

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