These primaries are interesting to watch- but I wanted to make one observation that might not be obvious for those following the day to day in-the-weeds coverage of these primaries.
Terry McAuliffe and Jody Wagner are starting to run away with both Democratic primaries.
I don't think anything is over yet in either primary. But let's deal with reality here. The other candidates are now officially running as underdogs to the front-runners.
(Full disclosure- this ticket would amuse me. At his first blogger dinner, Terry talked about how he thought the budget projection numbers were terrible this year. Those projections were done by... Finance Secretary Jody Wagner before she left office. That will make for a heckuva unity rally in June.)
Don't rule out Signer as the darkhorse.
Posted by: Schuyler Colfax | March 20, 2009 at 02:55 PM
Jody is definitely a runaway. Always was. The only campaign that could have had a shot is Bowerbank but despite the miles he appears to be putting in, he's just been under the radar. At least, under the radar of an average spectator like me.
As for the top of the ticket, I don't get a McAuliffe-runaway vibe in the slightest. Despite his 20 years of Mclean residency, most Dems see him as a johnny-come-lately compared to Creigh and Brian who have been working on this race for years. And, Republicans seem to be more excited about McAuliffe than Creigh or Brian. No one will be easier to tar as an ultra-insider/ultra-partisan than McAuliffe. Plus, McAuliffe is their last, best chance to use up any left-over Clinton hatred in their wings.
In addition, I simply talk to a lot of Moran supporters. I think he's in the best position to make use of the blue trends in Virginia. Obama inspired new or seldom-voters to the polls. I think Moran is the best person to get them there again.
Posted by: Pete in Williamsburg | March 20, 2009 at 03:06 PM
What makes you think Terry is pulling away in the Governor's race?
I don't think that one can necessarilly draw that conclusion just from a straw poll and some fundraising figures. I think Pete makes a great point that the one thing no one can be sure about (maybe even until Election Day) is whether McAuliffe can shake off his image as being not from Virginia and his baggage from the 2008 election.
Posted by: Matt | March 20, 2009 at 03:57 PM
Jody looks good on paper but is uninspiring at best. She ran the states finances in the ground and then quit the job. Myself and a lot of other democrats are looking for an alternative. I do like Mike Signer
Posted by: dawn | March 20, 2009 at 04:25 PM
If it's Wagner v. Bolling, Bolling crushes because it will be very hard for her to run away from all the problems she created not only as Finance Secretary but also as Warner's Treasurer. Just too many mistakes and blunders by her in those two positions. I mean, she's practically written the ads for Bolling without trying. Same with T-Mac.
The Dems best chance is probably a Moran/Signer ticket.
Posted by: Pat Edmonson's Mini Skirt | March 20, 2009 at 04:40 PM
Moran has totally imploded because of McAuliffe. It doesn't speak well for how he'll handle a real crisis as Governor.
Posted by: Loudoun Insider | March 20, 2009 at 04:54 PM
Yea Mini Skirt, the world economy tanked and it was all Jody Wagner's fault.
Try selling that in November.
Posted by: Not Einstein | March 20, 2009 at 05:33 PM
Hmmm, this adds a whole new meaning to the concept of "the dish ran away with the spoon." Good for your little nursery here, anyway.
Posted by: Rah Goo | March 20, 2009 at 07:33 PM
Anyone who doesn't believe Ben is not talking to average voters.
Posted by: f | March 20, 2009 at 10:17 PM
What's funny is that both McAuliffe and Wagner have or at least had the same consultants running their campaigns.
Posted by: anon | March 20, 2009 at 11:48 PM
The ARG poll had Jody at 9% and Signer at 5%. And Signer came away with 28% of the vote to Jody in the low 40's in Connelly's straw poll. Wagner has been in the race far longer and hasn't inspired and Signer has a dynamism and a finger on the pulse of the commonwealth that can't be ignored. Ben, by dismissing any candidate for LG other than Jody you place your percentage of accurate predictions in extreme peril.
Posted by: truthnjustice | March 21, 2009 at 02:38 AM
I'm so voting for Jody even though I almost suffocated b/c of that person who farted 5 million times at her event at W&M.
Posted by: Suffocating at W&M | March 21, 2009 at 12:55 PM
We really need to back up and take a look at this. Does Wagner actually have a shot of beating Bill Bolling? Virginia is turning blue, and we don't want to take a step back. I personally thing Wagner has no shot, and if we want to win, we have to seriously look at our other candidates.
Posted by: DRog876 | March 21, 2009 at 01:29 PM
I think Signer is really on the move, he's got the best message and passion et al
Posted by: fleamarketconnee | March 21, 2009 at 02:34 PM
Ben's right. Wagner is totally baggage from the Kaine administration. Kaine's inability to articulate a consistent progressive vision for the Commonwealth has nearly squandered the goodwill and political capital that Mark Warner worked so hard to accumulate during his term as governor. Wagner has been at the center of the budgetary fiasco for the last couple years and does not have the potential to be a rising star for 2013.
I'm looking towards Pat Edmondson as a viable alternative.
http://patedmonson.com/
I mean she has two eagle heads on her homepage alone. How much more American can you get? And she just kind of pops into view from nowhere. Virginians like surprises!
Who knew Terry MacAuliffe had been here for 2 decades? I see a potential campaign theme emerging for the fall.
Posted by: Bulletproof Tiger | March 21, 2009 at 02:47 PM
Ben's right. Wagner is totally baggage from the Kaine administration. Kaine's inability to articulate a consistent progressive vision for the Commonwealth has nearly squandered the goodwill and political capital that Mark Warner worked so hard to accumulate during his term as governor. Wagner has been at the center of the budgetary fiasco for the last couple years and does not have the potential to be a rising star for 2013.
I'm looking towards Pat Edmondson as a viable alternative.
I mean she has two eagle heads on her website's homepage alone. How much more American can you get? And she just kind of pops into view from nowhere. Virginians like surprises!
Who knew Terry MacAuliffe had been here for 2 decades? I see a potential campaign theme emerging for the fall.
Posted by: Bulletproof Tiger | March 21, 2009 at 02:55 PM
Any Dem LG candidate is a winner when running with Terry "African American barber" Mac! Maybe Terry thinks he is Bernie Mac?
Posted by: Doug in Harrisonburg | March 21, 2009 at 03:10 PM
Jody Wagner is the Leslie Byrne of 2009.
Beloved by partisan hacks and party insiders but not voters
Posted by: Carl Von Clausewitz | March 21, 2009 at 07:42 PM
During a House Appropriations hearing on the 2008 budget forecast, Delegate Bud Phillips (D) asked Wagner about her confidence in the revenue forecast. Her response: “While I am not an economist, there is a 50 percent probability for the middle revenue forecast and a 25 percent probability for the upper forecast and 25 percent probability for the lower forecast.”
WOW. Flip the coin Jody and you would have done just as well.
Posted by: Ghost of Alexander Hamilton | March 21, 2009 at 08:53 PM
JOdy easily wins an will kill Bolling in the fall.People hate Bolling.Chap Petersen would have beaten him 4 years ago.What you people don't understand is that Moran is getting ALL the African-American vote.Loads of elcted officials are behind him.Terry is unknown in Virginia and will lose in June.The true activists are behind Brian and Jody and we are the ones voting in June and in November. Jody is also winning the business community over.Trust me-I've been to her fundraisers unlike many of you.Mike Signer has no chance of winning withou money which he Doesn't have.
Posted by: Big C | March 21, 2009 at 09:50 PM
Jody wins because activists are behind her and she is getting the business community behind her.I have been to her fundraisers and should know.Moran wins because the African-American community is supporting him.
Posted by: Big C | March 21, 2009 at 09:56 PM
Big C - color me unconvinced. Jody's had months to make her case and most of the young and progressive activists and they are unconvinced. The PPP poll says she had barely made a dent with months to campaigns and gobs of money... What's her message, what's her appeal to Democratic voters -- I have yet to see it... Help me see what I'm missing but I don't see a vision for the Commonwealth. Signer has a vision, she doesn't...
Posted by: truthnjustice | March 22, 2009 at 01:49 AM
I don't even know how we are talking about "who has money and who doesn't" when the candidates haven't even reported yet. It is all speculation at this point.
All sign's point to Wagner's taking a ride on the ill-fated SS Hillary Clinton.
Posted by: Ya Know | March 22, 2009 at 09:25 AM
truth- in case you have not noticed, she's being endorsed by lots of elected officials. Not a one has endorsed Mike Signer.In addition, women on the Democrat side of the aisle are lining up behind her-women for Wagner-to be exact.I guaranteee she wins in June and probably wins this fall.Polls are early, but when people see lots of folks lined up behind 1 candidate, that candidate wins the June nomination.
Posted by: carter phillips | March 22, 2009 at 10:31 PM
If McAuliffe has lived here for 20 years, why does he still have that awful accent? It's grating and it sounds like someone from up north, or the mid west, but not a Virginian.
He'll lose against McDonnell who has Ed Gillespie running his campaign. Plus, most Virginians have heard of McDonnell and they know that he's a Virginian. People know that he came from NOVA. No one knows where McAuliffe came from, but it wasn't Virginia.
We need to run someone else, if we expect to win.
Posted by: Eva | March 23, 2009 at 12:27 AM
I just looked it up, Terry McAuliffe came to Virginia when Clinton was elected, 1992.
Posted by: Eva | March 23, 2009 at 12:37 AM
My biggest issue with Terry, and with those who support him, is where has he been during the past 20 yrs? I understand if Terry had been active with the Fairfax Dems, or his local community, or even coached a little league team, but he has not been active in any form of Demcratic or community activism his entire 20 yrs as a Virginia resident. What does that say about his desire to be governor? That he merely wishes to hold the position out of self-aggrandizement? I tend to believe that this is the case.
If Democrats are serious about retaining the Governorship, they need to, and must support Brian Moran. Though I like Creigh, of the 3 candidates, Brian is the only one capable of defeating McDonnell. Brian is the most transformational candidate; he is the candidate who has the best chance of winning over independent and Warner-Republican voters.
As for the LG race, Judy may be in the lead, but her lead is not going to last. Mike Signer is the only candidate running on a platform, and not solely on his resume. Signer is the only candidate who has been in the trenches working to help get good Democrats elected to office. Since Signer posted his jobs plan, it appears as though the other campaigns are now beginning to follow his lead. It will be intesting to see if they are able to keep up. Signer is the only candidate with the ability to defeat Bill Bolling in November.
Posted by: Daniel | March 23, 2009 at 07:52 AM
Terry has the money.
(His sucking up of, "I'm a REAL Virginian just like YOU" is simply awful.)
Kaine won because Kaine was sincere and has a life story that is inspirational to many, no matter their politics. Terry, as of yet, has yet to display this level of depth.
McDonnell has the message.
Thanks to the lack of a primary opponent, Bob has all year long to track to the middle and develop his message of, "I'm the adult in this campaign. I'm the proven Virginia public administrator who can get us through this recession in a non-partisan, effective manner. I play well with others."
Bob's service in the military and as AG works to his favor. And any effort to paint Bob with his Regent school law degree by the Dem's MAY make them out to be political hacks that want to refight the cultural wars of the 90's (this will be exxacerbated with Terry at the top of the ticket).
If this is an I-95/I-64 race, folks in the suburbs will want an adult running the state - someone who will fix budgets, fix potholes, protect kids, and preserve public education. Bob seems to have those bases covered at this point.
Posted by: bubba | March 23, 2009 at 09:14 AM
Carol's hit the nail on the head about Jody. She'll be our candidate but lose in November. As for the gov's race, it' still anyone's game. Could be raining in NOVA or Hampton Roads with low Dem turnout on primary day and maybe Deeds gets the most votes out of SW. Who knows, it's still up in the air. Besides party hacks the general public isn't talking about any of these people.
Posted by: BlueAngel | March 23, 2009 at 01:21 PM
If McAuliffe has been here for 20 years, where was he during the 2006 campaign against the so-called marriage amendment when just one of his many millions or his fundraising prowess could have made the difference in the campaign which delivered 1,000,000 no votes with only $1.5 million in contribs? Or in actively supporting and helping to fund Creigh Deeds' race for AG in 2005 ... which he lost by only a bit over three hundred votes even though grossly underfunded.
Posted by: Lovell Reiley | March 24, 2009 at 05:04 PM
Don't write Jody off because of the PPP poll. No one is spending money on media yet, so how would anyone EXCEPT insiders know who the front runners are? It's too early to say what normal voters are thinking, but Jody's strong performance in the straw polls and her grassroots signature-gathering success shows that she is the one to beat.
Posted by: fp1 | March 25, 2009 at 06:35 AM
I hope Jody is better at counting and projecting signatures than she was doing the same for the state's budget.
Posted by: bubba | March 25, 2009 at 08:30 AM