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Brian W. Schoeneman

What these numbers tell us and what they mean is simple:

Bob McDonnell has the advantage of having an uncontested primary. He has spent his money on soft advertising, direct mail focused on delegates and traveling the Commonwealth holding events. He will continue to cruise until June when the Democratic nominee is chosen and then the race starts.

In terms of overall fundraising, McAuliffe is doing what he is best at - raising money. Granted, a significant portion of his money is coming from out of state, he's still winning the money game.

What is most surprising is that Moran and Deeds are so close in terms of money raised. Given the fact that Deeds has already run statewide once and should have a larger list and more name ID, he's training Moran. But, unlike Moran, he's husbanding his resources more - Moran is spending nearly everything that comes in the door. And whatever he's doing, it seems to be working, because he's leading in the latest polls I've seen.

Overall, from my perspective, McAuliffe is doing his best to buy the seat, but given the latest poll numbers, he's going to have to spend even more to close the gap with Moran. Deeds is simply too far behind in both numbers and cash at this point.

That's great from my perspective, because I believe he's the only candidate who can beat McDonnell.

I would expect to see big media buys from McAuliffe starting the second week of May in NoVA, Tidewater and around Richmond. He'll probably be the only one on the air in significant way because neither Deeds or Moran have the COH to make those kinds of buys.

The next month is going to be interesting.

Anonymous Pseudonym

What this tells us is that Ben is no longer staking out bright red VW convertibles with too many bumper stickers. His quest to find the sign-stealer has sadly ended with a whimper. I AM OUTRA...ZZZzzzz.....

Peninsula Pete

Let’s not forget that Deeds and McDonnell could only raise money during part of this period. McDonnell could raise money for 52 days of the 90 day period and Deeds could raise money 44 of those days.

If we average money raised per day, McAuliffe raised $46,833.80 avg. per day and McDonnell raised $42,680.54 avg. per day.

Deeds avg. was $16,560.52, and Moran’s avg was $8,938.73.

not penninsula pete

what this tells you is

McAuliffe can raise serious cash.

Moran's biggest donor his his brother's sketchy money.

McDonnell's biggest donor is the RGA.

Bowerbank can only raise money from himself.

anon

it should definitely be noted $1 million of mcdonnell's money came from the RGA so really he only raised 1.2 million, which while still a good sum, isn't that impressive for someone running unopposed in his primary. even if he couldn't raise money for the full 90 days. it should also be noted that mcauliffe had 2 donors that gave $250,000 each so big chunks of money are coming from the clinton donors. and what is with moran? how could he raise so little? did he not do calltime? i thought he left the assembly so he could raise money.

bubba

The amount of gubernatorial campaign funds raised for the Jan 1- March 31 period equals the total annual income for 290 "average" households in southside and southwest Virginia.

TSB

"What is most surprising is that Moran and Deeds are so close in terms of money raised. Given the fact that Deeds has already run statewide once and should have a larger list and more name ID, he's trailing Moran"

Brian - you're kidding right? according to these numbers, creigh and brian were seperated by less than $100K in the quarter and brian had twice as much time to fundraise. that's either a poor showing for team moran or a good showing for team deeds.

Isaac Sarver

Well, you've piqued my curiosity with this analyis. What do you see happening with the large blocs of voters in Richmond (city and suburbs) and off in the broader Hampton Roads region, if you take into account the strategies predicted above?

Brandon

I would really like to see you crunch some numbers for the LG races and beyond if possible!

wide pelvis

Jesse Ferguson was in charge of the Moran campaign beginning in Spring 2006. What a failure, having staffed up that early (albeit with someone not qualified to run a statewide campaign) and having only this to show for it.

Bill Kuster

Terry is on the air in Richmond with a new ad on renewable energy jobs. It's clear Terry is running the entire campaign season and not squirreling away dollars for last minute mailers.

Whoever wins this primary is going to be in a strong position relative to McDonnell's fractured GOP.

Hokie Guru

Excellent analysis, Ben.

I have no duty to you Mr. Lt. Governor

This is great analysis.

Creigh Deeds can win if Northern Virginia Democrats don't turn out in droves during a contested Democratic primary. In other words: Creigh Deeds is done.

Brian Moran can win if he runs up huge numbers downstate where Terry has been (a) running ads uncontested and (b) doing field uncontested. Brian Moran is done!

And Terry can win if the sun rises tomorrow.

Janie

Yup, Terry buys this primary battle, for sure, and republicans couldn't be happier for him.

Loudoun Insider

There is no fractured GOP, Bill, there are a couple hundred loud and obnoxious Frederick Fanatics trying to raise a ruckus. They're fringers who will never be happy. The Dems are much more fractured and it will only get worse as the campaign heats up.

Is Moran still paying Spruill $7500 a month??? For what exactly?

kestrel9000

This analysis is flawed.
The author here ignores the fact that as McAuliffe continues to spend his war chest, his negatives actually rise.
From an article in today's RTD:

http://www.timesdispatch.com/rtd/news/opinion/commentary/article/PD419_20090417-214535/259205/

"The PPP poll may be even more ominous. The Raleigh, N.C., firm has been surveying the race since January. McAuliffe's unfavorable rating has increased in each survey, from 23 percent in January to 29 percent in late March. By comparison, Moran's unfavorable rating was 15 percent in the March poll and Deeds' was 12 percent. The favorable ratings were nearly identical for all three.

What's striking about McAuliffe's weakening position is that it comes as he is dominating the media -- both in paid advertising and in news coverage."

Daily Kos:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/4/10/1181/00113

"The favorability numbers show Moran with slight positive favorability - 36/33. McAuliffe's numbers are inferior, but not by a whole lot, at 35/36. Meanwhile, Creigh Deeds enjoys the best numbers (ever so slightly) at 34/30."

Here, we see that McAuliffe is the only Democratic candidate in this race with negatives higher than his positives.

So your apparent belief that money can swing the race around for McAuliffe is apparently dead wrong, based on everything we've seen. Based on his polling numbers, we see that he'll have to spend money just to catch up and climb out of the hole....never mind get ahead.
Of the three Democratic candidates running, McAuliffe is the weakest, money notwithstanding, and presents the greatest risk of a loss to the Republicans in the GE. With redistricting on the spike for 2012, we dare not take that risk. We also need to retake the House of Delegates for the same reason, but that is another subject for another time.
An Augusta County Republican who calls himself "Fishersville Mike"

http://fishersvillemike.blogspot.com/2009/04/why-i-like-t-mac-to-lose.html

offers this:

"He was chairman of Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign. How'd that turn out? In 2007, Rush Limbaugh said there was an 80 percent chance that Hillary would be elected president. They blew the largest front-runner lead in presidential history. And T-Mac was right there.
Before that, he was chairman of the Democratic National Committee during George W. Bush's first term. How'd that go?...If amateur bloggers can whack McAuliffe like a pinata over Global Crossing, what are the professionals going to do? If T-Mac is still standing after the June 2 primary, he doesn't stand a chance in November."

Hate to say it, but I have to agree.
If I'm a VA GOPer (which I ain't) I am down on my knees praying to the deranged God of Robertson and Dobson for a TMac victory in June, and a chance to run against a Clinton by proxy.
It's exactly the medicine a disarrayed and wounded RPV needs to heal.

George Templeton

Posts like this are why I visit this site every day. I am one of the weirdos out there who loves nuts and bolts stuff like this.
For me it is interesting to see the choices out there for how to spend the money once a candidate gets it.
And it seems to me that this money could really help if McAuliffe pulls away and can start running against McDonnell weeks before the primary vote. Moran and Deeds look like they are swimming upstream here.

=)

TMac=disaster for Virginia Democrats.

The best hope to defeat BobbyMac is Brian Moran

Raleigh

Give please. I am not young enough to know everything.
I am from Macedonia and also am speaking English, give true I wrote the following sentence: "Seattle lesbian gay film festival."

With respect :P, Raleigh.

Joie

Hello. The great thing about a computer notebook is that no matter how much you stuff into it, it doesn't get bigger or heavier.
I am from Iceland and know bad English, please tell me right I wrote the following sentence: "Manhattan harlem morningside heights.This entry was posted on june at pm and is filed under brooklyn, food."

Thank ;-) Barbie.

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