Creigh Deeds just pulled a huge endorsement with the Washington Post endorsing him over both Northern Virginia candidates:
Click here to read “Mr. Deeds on June 9th”.
After this editorial and the momentum suck it will take from Brian Moran in Northern Virginia, this is officially a two man race between Creigh Deeds and Terry McAuliffe.
Yet in a bizarre twist- it’s a two man race with one of them- Deeds- in 3rd place! I predicted last week that Creigh would find a way into second place before this primary was over with, but now we have the bizarre situation of Creigh being the only candidate who can catch Terry McAuliffe, but before he has even passed Brian Moran!
This endorsement doesn’t guarantee a single vote for Creigh (see Mr. Miller’s Advantage from the 2006 primary) but it will get him a second look from tens of thousands of primary voters in Northern Virginia who have been deciding between Brian and Terry and had never really paid his campaign any attention. The results of how successful that second look is will be determined by how effectively the Deeds campaign can communicate with those voters to follow up over the next two weeks- making their recent decision to cut field staff for voter contact money an even smarter investment than it was before.
Keep in mind- if Brian doesn’t win NoVA huge, it is possible he won’t even get to 20% statewide- which means this primary goes from being won in the 35-38% range to a candidate needing 41%-43% to win it. Terry has been stable for weeks in the mid to high 30’s, and that was looking more and more solid until this morning. As Brian continues to melt, Terry’s going to have to pick up the pace a little bit if he doesn’t want Creigh moving past him to grab the checkered flag.
P.S.- Lowell, I think we found that Deeds momentum you were looking for yesterday.
Here's the post I was looking for. Way to go Creigh!
Posted by: BlueAngel | May 22, 2009 at 09:15 AM
Ben, does this mean you'll stop trying to insult Creig via his first name?
Posted by: Pete in Williamsburg | May 22, 2009 at 10:07 AM
Creigh. Darn.
Posted by: Pete in Williamsburg | May 22, 2009 at 10:09 AM
Oh, Bentard...
And congrats to Creigh! My wife and I are voting for you, and so are a few of our neighbors in Fairfax County!
Posted by: Not Bentard | May 22, 2009 at 10:13 AM
Creigh might be in third place in the Daily Kos poll, but he's in second place in the WDBJ/SUSA poll.
Posted by: Not Hussein | May 22, 2009 at 10:13 AM
DEEDS/WAGNER/SHANNON '09!
Posted by: Todd | May 22, 2009 at 10:34 AM
Ben, I agree with your final bit of analysis and also wanted to note this. While the debate on how influential this will be goes on I believe it'll help Creigh in one important demographic in NoVA I'm running into: Undecided but definitely not McAuliffe. I've done a lot of calls for Creigh and have heard that A LOT. This could force those voters who are undecided or leaning weakly towards Brian to rethink Creigh on June 9th. It was a well worded article and noted all the strengths of Creigh which can sometimes be perceived as his weaknesses!
Posted by: DanielK | May 22, 2009 at 10:45 AM
Creigh is the only candidate who can win statewide. If the Democrats go with either Moran or McAuliffe they are in trouble.
Posted by: Not Paul Krugman | May 22, 2009 at 11:36 AM
No matter who it is we are going to tie the Democrat Party nominee to Obama, who as we know, is extremely unpopular. Suck on THAT, libs!
Posted by: not a liberal loon | May 22, 2009 at 11:55 AM
Looks like Moran and McAuliffe are both dead in the water. The momentum at this crucial moment is clearly with Deeds!
McAuliffe --like Kansas City in the song--"has gone about as fur as he can go."
Moran's voters will be switching in droves to Deeds. In the polls, their totals together have heavily outweighed McAuliffe's.
Deeds is obviously the one who can successfully take on McDonnell--and the majority of Democrats know this!
Posted by: Flateartha Kitt | May 22, 2009 at 12:15 PM
Reminds me of Maryland '78: Harry Hughes was an underfunded ex-state senator from nowhere running a distant third against two urban favorites. The Baltimore Sun (and the Post, I believe) detected some movement his way down the stretch, endorsed him, and turned the ripple into a last-minute flood. He won the primary and went on to massacre a former U.S. senator in the general.
Posted by: Not Bill Howell | May 22, 2009 at 12:48 PM
While I like deeds, he is not viable, especially in NOVA.
Phonebanking is way over the top for Moran.
Posted by: laura | May 22, 2009 at 12:50 PM
How can one say that Deeds is not viable in NOVA?!?!? Would Democrats in NoVa prefer B-Mac over Creigh? Seriously, even my really progressive (Ultra) friends say that a moderate/centrist Democrat is better ANYDAY than a conservative nut job Republican.
Posted by: DanielK | May 22, 2009 at 01:25 PM
Whomever stole Brian Moran's mojo please return it prior to 2013.
Posted by: Bubby Hussein, Hillbilly Sheikh | May 22, 2009 at 02:23 PM
I'm going to vote for either Moran or McAuliffe in the primary, Deeds has the beat chance of beating McDonnell in the General.
I encourage all Republicans to do the same.
Posted by: PWConservative | May 22, 2009 at 02:24 PM
PWC: thanks for the advice. i guess i'll vote for moron because he seems so mean. Va. voters probably won't go for that.
Posted by: kelley in virginia | May 22, 2009 at 03:29 PM
I have been on the Creigh wagon from day 1. This is nice to see, whether it matters or not, time will tell.
Posted by: phriendlyjaime | May 22, 2009 at 04:15 PM
Well, since Moran is out and Ben is calling Deeds supporters "Creightards," it kind of takes the drama out of his endorsement of McAuliffe on Tuesday.
Posted by: Brian W. Schoeneman | May 23, 2009 at 11:53 AM
For the past several weeks I've been receiving some pretty heavy criticism regarding my opinions against TMac's candidacy and support for Brian Moran. But, at least I haven't resorted to name calling Senator Deeds' supporters especially when CD has purchased a banner ad on the right.
This kind of childish attitude poisons the political process and if the operators of this site are representative of TMac campaign then I'm glad not to be one of them.
Posted by: In the YC | May 23, 2009 at 02:56 PM
Brian - Ben has been calling Creightards for a long time. It provides zero insight into who he will be endorsing.
Not that I care who Ben endorses, but I have a sneaky feeling it will be Chuck Robb.
Posted by: aznew | May 23, 2009 at 06:49 PM
ANY democrat that thinks Brian or Terry is more electable than Creigh in the general is a left wing Clintoniod obsessed with the past. Creigh is more prepared than either of the other two, and I think that deep down....most everyone knows that.
I'm not a dem...but I'll be voting in your primary....
Posted by: Republitarian | May 24, 2009 at 08:16 AM
Republitarian,
I'm probably the only liberal within my circle of friends would take offense at being called a "Clintoniod." I found their arrogance to be most disturbing and their moderate approach to public policy to be appalling.
One of the reasons that I'm supporting Brian is because he's NOT a Clintonista.
Posted by: In the YC | May 24, 2009 at 01:06 PM
>>>While I like deeds, he is not viable, especially in NOVA.<<<
Get real. Nova will vote for whatever democrat we nominate. NOVA is not the problem, the ROVA is and that's where Deeds can help us win.
Posted by: SuzyQ | May 25, 2009 at 01:13 AM
I agree, SuzyQ.
Posted by: Hokie Guru | May 25, 2009 at 11:28 PM
I don't know about anyone else but I can still picture in my head Creigh's flag flying over the Washington Post headquarters! And yes, calling us Creightards is nothing new, a few months back he titled something called "Creightards are distracted" or something like that. It's all good though!
Posted by: DanielK | May 26, 2009 at 12:19 AM