Not Larry Sabato

Tim Hugo Frantically Raises Money Against No One

From his fundraising email:

"As you may know, my opponent is prepared to fight until the end and has the ability to raise a lot of money. The Democratic Party is also investing an enormous amount of time and money on campaigns statewide. The Democrats have the advantage when it comes to fundraising, and I do not want to let that be the deciding factor in this race."

Actually Tim's opponent dropped out of the race two months ago, and has allowed her name to remain on the ballot this summer so Democrats will have time to look for a replacement for her.  It seems to me that Tim is a little better than saying someone who has basically dropped out is "fighting to the end" to raise some more cash.

Kaine Continues To Keep His Travel Secret

Before the out-of state event happens, Tim claims he can't announce it because of "security".  (Yet he announces multiple in-state events every week and that doesn't seem to endanger him).

After the out-of-state event happens, Kaine denies the press access to details of where it was, and how long he was out of state.

And while Tim Kaine is out of state, we don't have a Governor doing his job.

Pathetic.

What's With The WaPo and Blogger Bashing?

Congratulations to Nico, who was one of the panelists at our Governor debate in April.

House of Delegates Preview- Part 1

21 Kerry/Kaine/Byrne/Deeds/Webb/No/Obama/Warner Districts
Currently held by 21 Democrats, 0 Republicans

Ratings for these 21 Seats:

15 Safe Democratic
3 Likely Democratic
2 Leans Democratic
1 Slight-Lean Democratic

The 11th District was drawn to be a Democratic stronghold, centered in Roanoke City.  However, recent allegations about campaign finance issues have weakened the incumbent Onzlee Ware.  The Republican candidate is a placeholder named Troy Bird, but this seat could heat up if Ware's finance issues take him into court.  For now, because of the tilt of the district, and the weakness of the GOP candidate, this is a "Likely Democratic" hold.

The 34th District is in McLean and Great Falls in Fairfax County, and Margi Vanderhye seriously underperformed here in her 51-49 open seat victory in 2007.  Barbara Comstock is running an energetic campaign as the challenger and she is raising a lot of money- but her own background as a very partisan Republican operative may not help her with Independent voters.  For now, because of Comstock's funding and Pat Herrity's victory in this district in the recent Special Election for Chairman of Fairfax County this race only "Leans Democratic".

The 35th District is anchored by Vienna and Oakton and is currently represented by Steve Shannon.  Democrats nominated Mark Keam in a four way primary, while Republicans nominated Jim Hyland.  Jim has been a repeated loser in many runs for office, but he has run in bad GOP years or overwhelmingly Democratic local districts before.  This is his first real opportunity for a victory.  While Democrats are hoping for Shannon to have coattails here, the reality is this district has shown an adversity to coattails in the past.  When Steve won this seat 51-49 in 2003, Jeannemarie Devolites Davis was carrying this district in her Senate race by a 59-41 margin.  Additionally impacting any potential coattails this year is three of the precincts also overlap with Ken Cuccinelli's Senate district, which could polarize those areas in the Attorney General's election. Keam's endorsements in the primary came from the elected officials in the area who under-perform in this district because of issues like Tysons Tunnel and MetroWest in Vienna so those associations may not help him in the General Election.  Finally, Pat Herrity won this district in the recent Special Election for Chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors over Sharon Bulova.  This seat should be a Democratic hold, but everything seems to be breaking in the other direction so far- so we have this rated as only a "Slight-Lean Democratic" at this point.

In the 38th District, Kaye Kory is facing Danny Smith in the General Election after defeating incumbent Bob Hull in the Democratic Primary.  Kaye has run strong here before for School Board, and Smith was crushed by the underwhelming Hull in 2001.  This seat is a "Likely Democratic" hold.

In the 44th District, incumbent Kris Amundson retired this week.  There will be a Democratic Caucus to decide her replacement in the next few weeks, but so far the only candidate is former Fairfax County Democratic Committee Chairman Scott Surovell.  Republicans have nominated Jay McConville, a local community activist.  This district has been home to some very close elections in recent years- Amundson won her first two terms by 51-49 margins and Sharon Bulova narrowly defeated Pat Herrity here by a couple hundred votes in the recent Special Election for Chairman of Fairfax County.  Scott is a very strong candidate with a long local history, but this election will be no slam dunk.  Right now, I have this district ranked as "Leans Democratic".

The 46th District was the home of Brian Moran for over a decade in the House of Delegates.  His replacement, Charniele Herring took the 80% Democratic district and turned it into a 16 vote victory in the Special Election for the seat.  Republicans have nominated Sasha Gong to challenge her this year for the full term.  This seat should be a "Safe Democratic" victory, but Alexandria Democrats appear to be in total meltdown right now.  Herring is invisible, and doesn't seem to be running much of a campaign once again- which almost cost her the seat earlier this year.  Right now, I have this ranked as "Likely Democratic" because of up-ticket coattails, but this seat could once again go into play in November if Herring doesn't get her act together.

The Republicans have done a good job putting some of these Democratic seats into play this year.  However, there was one big missed opportunity in the 37th District, with David Bulova going unchallenged.  Bulova finished further behind his ticket than any other Democratic candidate in 2005 that was not challenging a GOP incumbent- and since then has drawn no opponent in 2007 or 2009.  While Bulova will head back for a third term, I expect this will be a hotly contested seat in 2011 when the Republicans poll this district and find out that no one remembers who David is, and the ones who do don't really like him.

Part Two (The 11 Kerry/Kaine/Byrne/Deeds/Webb/Yes/Obama/Warner Districts) coming soon!

CONNOLLY ZOMBIES ATTEMPING TO SEIZE CONTROL OF FAIRFAX CO SCHOOL BOARD

Rick Boucher Coming Soon to Twitter

TV Reporters Get Their News From Newspapers...

Except when the TV reporters do more legwork than the newspaper reporters and scoop everyone.

From NBC12:

"While Sanford has not headlined a fundraiser specifically for McDonnell, the two were together at an event held in Northern Virginia on May 8th that led to a $750,000 windfall for the McDonnell campaign. The event was held by uber-fundraiser Fred Malek for the Executive Roundtable of the RGA. Sanford was there and McDonnell was also a guest. McDonnell left the fundraiser with a $750,000 donation from the RGA. You can see the details of the donation here. The event got a little bit of press prior to the event because Alaska Governor Sarah Palin was expected to attend, but then backed out.  Sanford, ironically replaced her.

The McDonnell campaign confirms that both their candidate and Sanford were in attendance."

In the first quarter, 1.2 million of Bob's 2.2 million raised came from the RGA.  Over half of his entire intake for the first three months of the year came from the RGA, which was chaired by Mark Sanford.  That's before you even figure in this additional $750,000 which came in the next reporting period.

Bob has showed terrible judgment in coordinating his fundraising with the RGA.  In 2005, McDonnell's late ads were financed by a shadow group that did not disclose its donors until after the election.  Now this year- Bob is raising large checks through the RGA so he does not have to disclose the donors- he only discloses when RGA sends him the money in one big check.  The sources of the money then must be found through RGA reports that are not always clear who is sending money to which candidates.

I don't think McDonnell is responsible for what Sanford did, and I don't think he should return the money.  However, he should not be allowed to act as if Sanford was some distant figure he barely knew- the Governor showing terrible judgment today is Bob McDonnell's Sugar Daddy on this campaign.  Or at least the guy he laundered money through to avoid our minimal campaign finance laws.

From the McDonnell Campaign

Kris Amundson Retires

Very sad news from a great Delegate.

Thank You Tom Rust and Ken Plum

Got to give credit where credit is due!