21 Kerry/Kaine/Byrne/Deeds/Webb/No/Obama/Warner Districts
Currently held by 21 Democrats, 0 Republicans
Ratings for these 21 Seats:
15 Safe Democratic
3 Likely Democratic
2 Leans Democratic
1 Slight-Lean Democratic
The 11th District was drawn to be a Democratic stronghold, centered in Roanoke City. However, recent allegations about campaign finance issues have weakened the incumbent Onzlee Ware. The Republican candidate is a placeholder named Troy Bird, but this seat could heat up if Ware's finance issues take him into court. For now, because of the tilt of the district, and the weakness of the GOP candidate, this is a "Likely Democratic" hold.
The 34th District is in McLean and Great Falls in Fairfax County, and Margi Vanderhye seriously underperformed here in her 51-49 open seat victory in 2007. Barbara Comstock is running an energetic campaign as the challenger and she is raising a lot of money- but her own background as a very partisan Republican operative may not help her with Independent voters. For now, because of Comstock's funding and Pat Herrity's victory in this district in the recent Special Election for Chairman of Fairfax County this race only "Leans Democratic".
The 35th District is anchored by Vienna and Oakton and is currently represented by Steve Shannon. Democrats nominated Mark Keam in a four way primary, while Republicans nominated Jim Hyland. Jim has been a repeated loser in many runs for office, but he has run in bad GOP years or overwhelmingly Democratic local districts before. This is his first real opportunity for a victory. While Democrats are hoping for Shannon to have coattails here, the reality is this district has shown an adversity to coattails in the past. When Steve won this seat 51-49 in 2003, Jeannemarie Devolites Davis was carrying this district in her Senate race by a 59-41 margin. Additionally impacting any potential coattails this year is three of the precincts also overlap with Ken Cuccinelli's Senate district, which could polarize those areas in the Attorney General's election. Keam's endorsements in the primary came from the elected officials in the area who under-perform in this district because of issues like Tysons Tunnel and MetroWest in Vienna so those associations may not help him in the General Election. Finally, Pat Herrity won this district in the recent Special Election for Chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors over Sharon Bulova. This seat should be a Democratic hold, but everything seems to be breaking in the other direction so far- so we have this rated as only a "Slight-Lean Democratic" at this point.
In the 38th District, Kaye Kory is facing Danny Smith in the General Election after defeating incumbent Bob Hull in the Democratic Primary. Kaye has run strong here before for School Board, and Smith was crushed by the underwhelming Hull in 2001. This seat is a "Likely Democratic" hold.
In the 44th District, incumbent Kris Amundson retired this week. There will be a Democratic Caucus to decide her replacement in the next few weeks, but so far the only candidate is former Fairfax County Democratic Committee Chairman Scott Surovell. Republicans have nominated Jay McConville, a local community activist. This district has been home to some very close elections in recent years- Amundson won her first two terms by 51-49 margins and Sharon Bulova narrowly defeated Pat Herrity here by a couple hundred votes in the recent Special Election for Chairman of Fairfax County. Scott is a very strong candidate with a long local history, but this election will be no slam dunk. Right now, I have this district ranked as "Leans Democratic".
The 46th District was the home of Brian Moran for over a decade in the House of Delegates. His replacement, Charniele Herring took the 80% Democratic district and turned it into a 16 vote victory in the Special Election for the seat. Republicans have nominated Sasha Gong to challenge her this year for the full term. This seat should be a "Safe Democratic" victory, but Alexandria Democrats appear to be in total meltdown right now. Herring is invisible, and doesn't seem to be running much of a campaign once again- which almost cost her the seat earlier this year. Right now, I have this ranked as "Likely Democratic" because of up-ticket coattails, but this seat could once again go into play in November if Herring doesn't get her act together.
The Republicans have done a good job putting some of these Democratic seats into play this year. However, there was one big missed opportunity in the 37th District, with David Bulova going unchallenged. Bulova finished further behind his ticket than any other Democratic candidate in 2005 that was not challenging a GOP incumbent- and since then has drawn no opponent in 2007 or 2009. While Bulova will head back for a third term, I expect this will be a hotly contested seat in 2011 when the Republicans poll this district and find out that no one remembers who David is, and the ones who do don't really like him.
Part Two (The 11 Kerry/Kaine/Byrne/Deeds/Webb/Yes/Obama/Warner Districts) coming soon!
Great analysis.
"The The 11 Kerry/Kaine/Byrne/Deeds/Webb/Yes/Obama/Warner Districts."
That's funny lol.
Posted by: Not Mark Sanford | June 27, 2009 at 03:50 PM
Very interesting analysis. Per the Fairfax seats... I would make the case that a couple of these are pure toss ups. But even with these rankings we think we are in a good position heading into the Fall.
Posted by: Anthony Bedell (FCRC) | June 27, 2009 at 11:33 PM
44th news - Sharon did not campaign in mount vernon at all. no one knew her - Pat was all over the district. The campaign was running the field operation like they had the luxury of a six month campaign not a 30 day special in the dead of winter. While continually a majority Dem district - there is the swath along GW parkway that is up for graps and can go Republican unless it is worked and worked.
Posted by: wow | June 28, 2009 at 02:00 AM
Bulova didn't campaign anywhere outside of Braddock District. Not Mt. Vernon, not Dranesville, not even Hunter Mill or Mason.
Posted by: Special Election Observer | June 28, 2009 at 02:55 AM
http://offkstreet.blogspot.com/
Go to the Off K Street Blog for A) Delegate Valentine's (23rd HOD) kick-off speech and B) an interview by Barry Butler of OFF K Street Blog. We now have an informed blogger in Central VA. It's great! Barry is a former worker for VOP!
Posted by: martha | June 28, 2009 at 05:10 AM
The 94th is going BLUE! Oder is reviled by local Republicans, who has been yelling at since 2007, the Democrats have a solid candidate in Gary West who has been successful at fundraising, and more imporantly, Brian Kirwin is running the Campaign for Oder! Remember Kirwin? Ran Marty Williams campaign into the dirt! So count the 94th for the Democrats! Done deal!
Posted by: Ron Brandon | June 28, 2009 at 07:41 AM
Comstock's background as Scooter Libby's flack will destroy her in the only district where the CIA leak case is a local issue.
Posted by: Alice | June 28, 2009 at 11:57 AM
This is stupid...Ben have some guts and call some races..this is you trying to be politically correct.
Posted by: Not Jim Moran | June 28, 2009 at 12:48 PM
Comstock is also a nasty union buster at a time when unions are now making a come back.
I don't know if that is going to make a difference in her privileged district.
My guess is she is also getting $ from the racist Campaign for Liberty.
Posted by: Spock | June 28, 2009 at 12:57 PM
Mark my words on David Bulova ... if Ken wins the AG race, he will run for the Senate seat. Ken and David have only three overlaping precincts, but David lives in one of them. Expect him to keep his head down again this year.
Posted by: Chris | June 28, 2009 at 01:52 PM
They have two overlapping precincts- and his mom got smashed in that district. He'd lose the seat without question. Janet Oleszek would be much stronger.
Posted by: Not Larry Sabato | June 28, 2009 at 02:22 PM
Janet Oleszek would be a gift to whoever the Republicans nominate, just like she was to Cuccinelli in 2007.
Stan Berry is a much more formidable option.
Posted by: Not Ken Cuccinelli | June 28, 2009 at 04:47 PM
Ben, the merits of his candidacy aside. I've heard pretty good info that he will run for that seat.
Posted by: Chris | June 28, 2009 at 07:10 PM
While I think the only seat out of this group we have a remote chance of winning is the 34th, how ironic will it be if Deeds ends up being the reason the dems don't take the HOD?
After all, Moran or McAuliffe would have run better in NOVA than he will.
Posted by: GOPHokie | June 28, 2009 at 08:16 PM
Hey "Not Cooch" his last name is spelled Barry! And no, he would not be a strong candidate, trust me. (That's all I'll say on the issue but I'm pretty familiar) I've heard that Janet is reworking herself and if she did run I think A LOT of things would be different than in 2007. It shouldn't be too hard to improve considering the train wreck of a campaign that was run. It wasn't that she was a weak candidate it was just a very poorly ran campaign (similiar to Brian Moran's campaign: Good candidates, terrible campaign)
I do agree that Margi's seat is the only one that the GOP has a chance of winning back. I don't think for a second that Deeds will run any weaker than Terry or Brian. Wasn't everyone saying that in the primary? I think the amount of money and efforts put into GOTV will counter Creigh running "weaker" in NoVa.
I also take Terry true to his word that he'll do everything he can to help us win, even though he's not the nominee!
I agree with Ben's analysis but there may be a little too much focus on the turnout of these special elections. Add is 2008 burnout to already low turnout special elections I don't think you can accurately gauge turnout this fall. If Democrats can get motivated again, then I think we'll be in business!
Posted by: DanielK | June 28, 2009 at 09:02 PM
what is there to get excited about?
broken promises?
rising gas prices?
new taxes?
lost jobs?
wasted stimulus money?
torched healthcare?
lost housing?
being so close to DC the stink is rubbing off.
Posted by: tired of the same old | June 28, 2009 at 10:06 PM
the torched healthcare is the result of the corporate prioritization of profits over people
Posted by: truthnjustice | June 29, 2009 at 12:55 AM
And the rest of "tired of the same old''s kvetch is due to the past 8 years of bad leadership on 1600 Penn.
My only question about that laundry list is "being so close to DC the stink is rubbing off" ... wtf does that mean?
DC property values are doing pretty damn well and DC is one of the few cities who are actually growing.
Could our laundry listing kvetcher be bitchin about how Virginia is now becoming as culturally diverse as a cosmopolitan city like DC?
These poor backward John Birch Society nutters, Obama is a black president and they don't know what to do.
Posted by: Spock | June 29, 2009 at 02:16 AM
I enjoy these writeups NLS, as always they are excellent.
How come Joe Murray isn't tyring again against Charniele Herring?
Posted by: George Templeton | June 29, 2009 at 01:22 PM
Isn't it funny how Republicans expect President Obama to fix the leftovers from the previous administration of raving thugs in mere months when they ruined the country over 8 years?
Posted by: RicJohn | June 29, 2009 at 02:39 PM
Ricjohn,
Do you pay any attention to what is happening in DC?
We are spending our greatgrandchildrens money to fix problems that don't even exist (global warming), while giving away trillions to foreign governments and attempting to nationalize "everything" in sight.
These representatives are passing legislation that they have not even read, this disgusting "representation" is going to cost many members their seats and I can only hope the next congress will work with in a more sober manner.
Posted by: change | June 29, 2009 at 05:16 PM
Soooo--you continue your attacks on Onzlee Ware. Wonder why?
Ware won overwhelmingly in the primary (70% to 30%). That doen't look weakened.
But oh, I see, he's the only African American delegate west of Richmond and in a majority white district...well I guess those facts may offend people like you but it hasn't offended the people of his district--black or white
Ware will win decisively so you'll just have to get used to it.
Posted by: Weldon | June 29, 2009 at 06:14 PM
You racists just do not like people with names like Onzlee and Hussein or anyone who starts with the name Rev. (fill in the blank).. you guys are racists and the Panthers should keep all of you from voting by protecting the polling places.
They should have free reign to intimidate you racist sob's and keep you inside your homes unless it is to work for the betterment of the community.
Posted by: Spock | June 29, 2009 at 08:08 PM
^^^ poor change^^^
He's afraid the black panthers (all 10 members) are going to loot his Piggley Wiggley and run off with his wife.
Hey "Change" maybe your "Coooch" will bring back the Jim Crow laws and you can burn crosses on Onzlee's lawn like your great grandpappy and his hooded buddies did back in their good ol boy rebel days.
Sounds like something "Coooch" should put on his website next to allowing freaks like yourself to shoot Dr.s at Women's Clinics and throw state wide book burnings as part of the tea bagging parties.
Posted by: Spock | June 29, 2009 at 09:13 PM
"He's afraid the black panthers (all 10 members) are going to loot his Piggley Wiggley and run off with his wife."
"Change" doesn't have a wife. In fact he has never kissed a girl. And he's a virgin. Well, not in his ass, but everywhere else.
Posted by: Paulie Gualtieri | June 29, 2009 at 09:28 PM
Spock/Pg/not PWC
I rather enjoy your continued usage of my often used nome de plume..
Imitation is the highest form of flattery
Posted by: Change | June 29, 2009 at 09:58 PM
As Sen. Cuccinelli is pro-life to the point of opposing his party on expanding the death penalty, your rant is a little off-target there Spock. Sen. Cuccinelli has never advocated violence against those he disagrees with.
Posted by: Bruce | June 30, 2009 at 11:41 AM
What does everyone think of Delegate Mamye E. BaCote? I love that lady.
Posted by: Leo | June 30, 2009 at 11:54 AM
Hey Bruce, isn't Cooch staunchly supported by that lunatic Rev. Donald Spitz from The Army of God? I didn't hear Ken denouncing his statements or material on his website after Dr. Tiller was assassinated. So much for every life because sacred.
Also, since Ken can only point to the Malvo and Muhammed case as his only substantial reason to support the triggerman rule, I think that shows why he should actually agree with his party on that one because he is very limited in his knowledge of that issue.
Posted by: DanielK | June 30, 2009 at 02:42 PM
"Cooch" has deep affiliations with both Army of God and The Liberty Lobby aka Campaign for Liberty.
"Remember Pro Life Virginia" IS Spitz and there is an HBO special called: "Soldiers for The Army of God" with lots of camera time on Spitz.
A very good book to understand where this "Campaign for Liberty" evolved from and who is giving Coooch all this cash is called "Blood and Politics"
http://www.amazon.com/Blood-Politics-Nationalist-Movement-Mainstream/dp/0374109036
EVERYONE in the Democrat party should read it and understand how this Neo-John Birch Society/Ron Paul/Tea Bagging has taken over the Republican party and in VA it looks like Coooch is their big guy.
If Cooch is allowed to be elected with this kind of base VA will fall back into the Jim Crow/pre-Roe v Wade/white privilege from back in the 1950's.
Any campaign where you see Campaign for Liberty involved, it is really the John Birch Society candidate and issue.
Posted by: Spock | June 30, 2009 at 04:38 PM
DanielK, good comment on Ben's analysis, I agree completely. Deeds will do just as well as any Dem in NoVA, he'll have no problem up here, and his decision to move hq here demonstrates the point.
And you're dead right that it's a big mistake to translate the recent winter/spring special elections turnout into something meaningful for November. The turnout model will be COMPLETELY different and FAR more favorable to us.
I'm in 34, I've given $250 to Margi and canvassed Chesterbrook precinct (I live close by in Chain Bridge precinct) one Saturday in May. I'll be there to help as much as I can through the summer and fall, along with Deeds, too. I wish I could work for Steve Shannon as well, as my wife went to high school with Cooch and considered him a big dick and a dunce, but I just don't have time for everyone with 2 small kids.
Posted by: DCCyclone | July 01, 2009 at 10:08 PM