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Not Mark Sanford

Great analysis.

"The The 11 Kerry/Kaine/Byrne/Deeds/Webb/Yes/Obama/Warner Districts."

That's funny lol.

Anthony Bedell (FCRC)

Very interesting analysis. Per the Fairfax seats... I would make the case that a couple of these are pure toss ups. But even with these rankings we think we are in a good position heading into the Fall.

wow

44th news - Sharon did not campaign in mount vernon at all. no one knew her - Pat was all over the district. The campaign was running the field operation like they had the luxury of a six month campaign not a 30 day special in the dead of winter. While continually a majority Dem district - there is the swath along GW parkway that is up for graps and can go Republican unless it is worked and worked.

Special Election Observer

Bulova didn't campaign anywhere outside of Braddock District. Not Mt. Vernon, not Dranesville, not even Hunter Mill or Mason.

martha

http://offkstreet.blogspot.com/

Go to the Off K Street Blog for A) Delegate Valentine's (23rd HOD) kick-off speech and B) an interview by Barry Butler of OFF K Street Blog. We now have an informed blogger in Central VA. It's great! Barry is a former worker for VOP!

Ron Brandon

The 94th is going BLUE! Oder is reviled by local Republicans, who has been yelling at since 2007, the Democrats have a solid candidate in Gary West who has been successful at fundraising, and more imporantly, Brian Kirwin is running the Campaign for Oder! Remember Kirwin? Ran Marty Williams campaign into the dirt! So count the 94th for the Democrats! Done deal!

Alice

Comstock's background as Scooter Libby's flack will destroy her in the only district where the CIA leak case is a local issue.

Not Jim Moran

This is stupid...Ben have some guts and call some races..this is you trying to be politically correct.

Spock

Comstock is also a nasty union buster at a time when unions are now making a come back.

I don't know if that is going to make a difference in her privileged district.

My guess is she is also getting $ from the racist Campaign for Liberty.

Chris

Mark my words on David Bulova ... if Ken wins the AG race, he will run for the Senate seat. Ken and David have only three overlaping precincts, but David lives in one of them. Expect him to keep his head down again this year.

Not Larry Sabato

They have two overlapping precincts- and his mom got smashed in that district. He'd lose the seat without question. Janet Oleszek would be much stronger.

Not Ken Cuccinelli

Janet Oleszek would be a gift to whoever the Republicans nominate, just like she was to Cuccinelli in 2007.

Stan Berry is a much more formidable option.

Chris

Ben, the merits of his candidacy aside. I've heard pretty good info that he will run for that seat.

GOPHokie

While I think the only seat out of this group we have a remote chance of winning is the 34th, how ironic will it be if Deeds ends up being the reason the dems don't take the HOD?
After all, Moran or McAuliffe would have run better in NOVA than he will.

DanielK

Hey "Not Cooch" his last name is spelled Barry! And no, he would not be a strong candidate, trust me. (That's all I'll say on the issue but I'm pretty familiar) I've heard that Janet is reworking herself and if she did run I think A LOT of things would be different than in 2007. It shouldn't be too hard to improve considering the train wreck of a campaign that was run. It wasn't that she was a weak candidate it was just a very poorly ran campaign (similiar to Brian Moran's campaign: Good candidates, terrible campaign)

I do agree that Margi's seat is the only one that the GOP has a chance of winning back. I don't think for a second that Deeds will run any weaker than Terry or Brian. Wasn't everyone saying that in the primary? I think the amount of money and efforts put into GOTV will counter Creigh running "weaker" in NoVa.
I also take Terry true to his word that he'll do everything he can to help us win, even though he's not the nominee!

I agree with Ben's analysis but there may be a little too much focus on the turnout of these special elections. Add is 2008 burnout to already low turnout special elections I don't think you can accurately gauge turnout this fall. If Democrats can get motivated again, then I think we'll be in business!

tired of the same old

what is there to get excited about?
broken promises?
rising gas prices?
new taxes?
lost jobs?
wasted stimulus money?
torched healthcare?
lost housing?

being so close to DC the stink is rubbing off.

truthnjustice

the torched healthcare is the result of the corporate prioritization of profits over people

Spock

And the rest of "tired of the same old''s kvetch is due to the past 8 years of bad leadership on 1600 Penn.

My only question about that laundry list is "being so close to DC the stink is rubbing off" ... wtf does that mean?

DC property values are doing pretty damn well and DC is one of the few cities who are actually growing.

Could our laundry listing kvetcher be bitchin about how Virginia is now becoming as culturally diverse as a cosmopolitan city like DC?

These poor backward John Birch Society nutters, Obama is a black president and they don't know what to do.

George Templeton

I enjoy these writeups NLS, as always they are excellent.
How come Joe Murray isn't tyring again against Charniele Herring?

RicJohn

Isn't it funny how Republicans expect President Obama to fix the leftovers from the previous administration of raving thugs in mere months when they ruined the country over 8 years?

change

Ricjohn,
Do you pay any attention to what is happening in DC?

We are spending our greatgrandchildrens money to fix problems that don't even exist (global warming), while giving away trillions to foreign governments and attempting to nationalize "everything" in sight.

These representatives are passing legislation that they have not even read, this disgusting "representation" is going to cost many members their seats and I can only hope the next congress will work with in a more sober manner.

Weldon

Soooo--you continue your attacks on Onzlee Ware. Wonder why?

Ware won overwhelmingly in the primary (70% to 30%). That doen't look weakened.

But oh, I see, he's the only African American delegate west of Richmond and in a majority white district...well I guess those facts may offend people like you but it hasn't offended the people of his district--black or white

Ware will win decisively so you'll just have to get used to it.

Spock

You racists just do not like people with names like Onzlee and Hussein or anyone who starts with the name Rev. (fill in the blank).. you guys are racists and the Panthers should keep all of you from voting by protecting the polling places.

They should have free reign to intimidate you racist sob's and keep you inside your homes unless it is to work for the betterment of the community.

Spock

^^^ poor change^^^

He's afraid the black panthers (all 10 members) are going to loot his Piggley Wiggley and run off with his wife.

Hey "Change" maybe your "Coooch" will bring back the Jim Crow laws and you can burn crosses on Onzlee's lawn like your great grandpappy and his hooded buddies did back in their good ol boy rebel days.

Sounds like something "Coooch" should put on his website next to allowing freaks like yourself to shoot Dr.s at Women's Clinics and throw state wide book burnings as part of the tea bagging parties.

Paulie Gualtieri

"He's afraid the black panthers (all 10 members) are going to loot his Piggley Wiggley and run off with his wife."

"Change" doesn't have a wife. In fact he has never kissed a girl. And he's a virgin. Well, not in his ass, but everywhere else.

Change

Spock/Pg/not PWC
I rather enjoy your continued usage of my often used nome de plume..

Imitation is the highest form of flattery

Bruce

As Sen. Cuccinelli is pro-life to the point of opposing his party on expanding the death penalty, your rant is a little off-target there Spock. Sen. Cuccinelli has never advocated violence against those he disagrees with.

Leo

What does everyone think of Delegate Mamye E. BaCote? I love that lady.

DanielK

Hey Bruce, isn't Cooch staunchly supported by that lunatic Rev. Donald Spitz from The Army of God? I didn't hear Ken denouncing his statements or material on his website after Dr. Tiller was assassinated. So much for every life because sacred.

Also, since Ken can only point to the Malvo and Muhammed case as his only substantial reason to support the triggerman rule, I think that shows why he should actually agree with his party on that one because he is very limited in his knowledge of that issue.

Spock

"Cooch" has deep affiliations with both Army of God and The Liberty Lobby aka Campaign for Liberty.

"Remember Pro Life Virginia" IS Spitz and there is an HBO special called: "Soldiers for The Army of God" with lots of camera time on Spitz.

A very good book to understand where this "Campaign for Liberty" evolved from and who is giving Coooch all this cash is called "Blood and Politics"

http://www.amazon.com/Blood-Politics-Nationalist-Movement-Mainstream/dp/0374109036

EVERYONE in the Democrat party should read it and understand how this Neo-John Birch Society/Ron Paul/Tea Bagging has taken over the Republican party and in VA it looks like Coooch is their big guy.

If Cooch is allowed to be elected with this kind of base VA will fall back into the Jim Crow/pre-Roe v Wade/white privilege from back in the 1950's.

Any campaign where you see Campaign for Liberty involved, it is really the John Birch Society candidate and issue.

DCCyclone

DanielK, good comment on Ben's analysis, I agree completely. Deeds will do just as well as any Dem in NoVA, he'll have no problem up here, and his decision to move hq here demonstrates the point.

And you're dead right that it's a big mistake to translate the recent winter/spring special elections turnout into something meaningful for November. The turnout model will be COMPLETELY different and FAR more favorable to us.

I'm in 34, I've given $250 to Margi and canvassed Chesterbrook precinct (I live close by in Chain Bridge precinct) one Saturday in May. I'll be there to help as much as I can through the summer and fall, along with Deeds, too. I wish I could work for Steve Shannon as well, as my wife went to high school with Cooch and considered him a big dick and a dunce, but I just don't have time for everyone with 2 small kids.

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