34th District Seat In Peril For Democrats

Old Rating:  Leans Democratic
New Rating:  Slight-Lean Democratic

The 34th District which is centered in McLean and Great Falls was represented since the Ice Age by Vince Callahan before he retired in 2007.  In a close battle, Margi Vanderhye won a 51-49 victory over Dave Hunt here to capture Vince's open seat.

But this is not yet Democratic territory.  The 34th District was one of the few in Northern Virginia to give Barack Obama a smaller share of the vote than Jim Webb.  The reason is demographics- this district includes some of the richest people in the United States.  High income precincts across Northern Virginia were where Obama performed the worst versus recent election results (it's as simple as they knew what he was proposing policy-wise and didn't want to pay for it)

These same demographics of high income white voters are also what has been moving the quickest to Bob McDonnell in his campaign against Creigh Deeds for Governor.  Creigh's natural strengths do not seem to be translating to the type of demographics that live in McLean and Great Falls.  The up-ballot influence is going to drive this election- and changes the calculation for this district.

At this point, Margi remains the favorite for re-election slightly because of her incumbency but with less than 100 days to go Barbara Comstock has caught a lucky break from shifts in the statewide electorate and is now within an eyelash of making this a "Toss Up".

More coming here soon...

Comments

[VA Blogger]

Comstock outraising Vanderhye from a greater number of donors to establish a solid cash-on-hand advantage doesn't hurt either.

Neither does the support of Frank Wolf, who is incredibly popular in the 34th; Vanderhye endorsed Feder, who is as far left as she is.

[Dan]

I think the trend will be statewide.
Remember how in 2005, less than a year after a convincing defeat of Kerry in VA and nationally, GWB was considered to be a "negative" to Jerry Kilgore?
I think that the growing anti-Obama sentiment will hurt Creigh in November.

[RichmondDem]

Remember in 2001 how George W. Bush had 90% approval, and Mark Warner won handily, anyway?

[change]

I believe Dan is correct in stating that anti Obama sentiment will be a factor; and that fruitcake Pelosi is not helping with her spastic comments about our intelligence agencies and her newest attack on insurance companies (which 80% of Americans are happy with).

She may have a very safe district, but many others do not. I bet you wont see her doing a lot of fundraising events.

The dems would do well to send her back to the spaceship.

[*.*]

Hey "change", how are your "several businesses throughout the commonwealth" doing again? What are their names?

[DCCyclone]

I'm a District 34 resident and voter, and I really wish some of the Republican trolls would just get banned here. There are a few rational ones like kelley, but mostly you guys are dunces.

No one in HD-34 cares about Wolf or Feder in the Delegate race. Voters don't think or care about things like that.

And there is no "anti-Obama sentiment." You wingnuts are sooooo anxious to have a bogeyman comparable to Bush, you delude yourselves into thinking that mid-50s approval for Obama somehow equates mid-30s approval for Dubya.

I have no doubt that economic-based Guv-race coattails could be helping Comstock here, and everyone commenting on this race has ALWAYS said it would be close. But make no mistake, this district has a clear Democratic lean, with Callahan through 2005 and Wolf through last year the ONLY Repubs to carry the district in a general election in recent cycles. (Yes I know Herrity beat Bulova here in February in the special--turnout for that was too low to honestly use it as a barometer for November.) District 34 also happens to overlap nearly perfectly with the Dranesville District lines, and Democrats occupy also the Dranesville supervisor and school board seats.

Finally, on money, Margi has been outraised, but not by nearly enough to be outgunned.

Margi ultimately still has plenty of advantages in this race.

[GOPHokie]

DCCyclone, while I don't necessarily disagree with what you are saying; the primary reason places like McLean have become democratic is b/c people couldn't stand Bush.
The further away we get from him (and if people begin to have a negative opinion of Obama), those voters are likely to swing back. Like Ben said, they are rich and don't like high taxes.

[change]

dcc,
Keep your post until November then you can explain what happened.

[NoVA Scout]

The slight disparity in fundraising reflects constraints on MH in raising money while the GA is in session. My suspicion is that the results of this race will be largely independent of external, national issues.

VB, where do you get the idea that Margie is far left? (maybe it is endorsing Feder - that's pretty wigged out, but I view that as aberrational) I knew Margi way back when when she was working for Republicans. She has very good relations with a lot of folks whom we would classify as centrist Republicans. I think of her as a moderate to conservative Democrat. She represents a type of national Republican whose IQ was too high to permit her to stay associated with us in Virginia.

My sense of the back story on this race is that Comstock really has her eye on Wolf's seat and views this race as a stepping stone. It won't be as easy as she thinks. As things get down to the wire, I expect the race to get pretty strident because losing an HD race will not work well as a catapult for a Congressional seat.

[*.*]

Still waiting for the names of those supposed "businesses" change. Just admit it: you made it up. And you're a tool.

[TheGreenMiles]

I'll be canvassing for Margi on Saturday. Hope to see DCCyclone out there!

[PWConservative]

DCCyclone
Try 41% Approval 49% Disapproval for Obama in Virginia, Learn to look at state polls instead of nationals.
41 is a 10% drop in 2 months. wait till Nov, Then it will be at 2nd term GWB Levels.

[Not Michael Jackson]

Really not doing your job here. Comstock could get huge money if she needed it in the end and she is running a Cooch style grassroots campaign.

I'd make it lean R.

[VA Blogger]

I apologize. I should have consulted with DCCyclone first in order to make a comment on what 50,000 people think. He clearly has his finger on the pulse of every single voter in the district.

[DanielK]

I'd be curious to see if Margi is getting the support she needs right now. I mean wouldn't it be a real soccer kick to the face to Democrats if they don't win back the House because her seat was the only incumbents they couldn't hold? I wrote about this a few month ago noting that Comstock was going to be a formidable opponent in this race, not because she is a good candidate (She isn't) or because she has been involved in her district in the past (She definitely hasn't) but because she has done so much with the national GOP cronies and now she's cashing in on all the favors she is owed. Come on, you don't do the vicious oppo research she did and not make friends in high and important places with substantial bank accounts.

I do agree with Ben that it is a slight-lean Dem right now because she is the incumbent and has a record to run on but that's it. It'll be a question of whether the coordinated campaign (or lack there of currently) drags down the candidates in tough House races.

[DCCyclone]

Green Miles, I tentatively plan to be out there. I've given Margi money and canvassed one day in May, but family obligations (wife and 2 l'il ones) have made it tough since then. Would have made it this past Saturday but for a sick baby. Now the wife is sick, but I think she can deal. So I plan to get out there Saturday morning to get a walk list.

[Not John S. Mosby]

The 34th is a politically sophisticated district, very high information voters. Gobs of money means lots of mailers and signs and canvassers and everything, but if people are active and know the issues, the money becomes less important. This goes for Margi's money as well, she's raising money very well right now. As the Romney campaign last year and the McAuliffe campaign this year shows, the newbie with the deep pockets but with no real reason for getting elected doesn't get the nod. Comstock is a political hack and has lots of friends, but when you're friends are Tom Delay, Scooter Libby, Karl Rove and Dick Cheney, and you're running in a decently Blue district, you're going to have a lot to overcome, regardless of how much money you raise.

[change]

“if people are active and know the issues, the money becomes less important”

If people take time to “know the issues” a liberal would never get elected. It is precisely because liberals muddle the issues and hide their true agenda that ignorant voters will elect them. (look at falling ratings as their agenda is becoming unveiled).

It is also why the “most transparent” administration has become so opaque.

[Not John S. Mosby]

Sure Change, just like "compassionate conservative" and all the other bullshit that Republicans have hid behind/tried to hide behind over the last 9 years just to make themselves palatable to moderates and independents. So you're telling me that if everyone with the ability to comprehend would look at the issues, they would be anti-choice on abortion, against gay rights, would believe in trickle-down economics, would be evangelical christian all the rest of the pure bullshit that makes up Republican dogma at this point?

[DCCyclone]

When I above referred to "Republican trolls" I should have noted I have one particular individual in mind: this "change" character.

[PWConservative]

DCCyclone

Right, Because the liberals natural reaction is to ban free speech, ALA Speaker Pelosi.

[Kevin]

Actually, the health care debate is being won by Democrats as more details come out. But "Change" lives in a fantasyland where unicorns frolic, Republicans are always right, and he runs two businesses while working at another.

[Zero Marker Girl]

As someone who lives in Margi's district, I can tell you that it seems (I could be wrong) that the race is really neck and neck. On a side note, I keep getting these emails inviting me to attend Comstock's events... wonder how they got my email address in the first place...

[34th]

Margi is a quality person and public official that is responsive to the needs of her district.

Her only major mistake was to be an outspoken proponent of Judy Feder. Feder's campaign was bizarre and plain dishonest about long time Rep. Frank Wolf.

Margi faces a credible challenger in a year when voters are very skeptical of government and its operations.

Looking at McLean alone, voters see crumbling roads and ill-maintained road medians. VDOT maintained neighborhood roads are crumbling and have not been touched in years. The transportation improvements that are taking place have been very disruptive to older neighborhoods and schools. Class sizes are ever increasing. Many business have shuttered and the business district is hurting.

The Commonwealth points to the County and then the County points to the Commonwealth.

Eight years of Democratic control of the Governor's Mansion and now complete Democratic control in DC may create a political environment that Margi cannot survive. If this was a normal political year, the incumbent would have the advantage. But the atmosphere has shifted quickly and moderate/pro-business voters have begun to move away from the Democrats. If the Republicans can field candidates that are viewed as credible, then they may be able to recapture that support.

The 34th is a swing district. NLS is correct that it is still a slight-democratic lean towards the incumbent. However, the intensity on the ground appears to be favoring the challenger Barbara Comstock. If Comstock is able to maintain this intensity and her fundraising pace, then this should move to a tossup by Labor Day.

[Tom Paine]

34th - classic Republican BS!

"Looking at McLean alone, voters see crumbling roads and ill-maintained road medians. VDOT maintained neighborhood roads are crumbling and have not been touched in years. The transportation improvements that are taking place have been very disruptive to older neighborhoods and schools. Class sizes are ever increasing. Many business have shuttered and the business district is hurting."

The high information voters in the 34th district know who is responsible for these problems: the Virginia House of Delegates Republicans and the Bush Administration and the U. S. House and Senate Republicans.

[asmith]

PWConservative,

Wishful thinking about Obama. We're not shedding as many jobs as we were when he was just in office. You guys are still in denial about losing the presidency and three congressional seats. And you're about to lose at least one delegate seat in PW.

[truthnjustice]

Constock's record of hating on the Clintons (how 1990s), pursuing the Christian Coalition's wishlist, justifying the Bush DOJ's firings of US Attorneys, Karl Rove's machinations, the politicization of the federal bureaucracy, Tom Delay's gerrymandering, ham fisted partisanship and money laundering, and Dick Cheney's feckless abuses of executive power will not go over with the savvy voters of the district once Margi educates voters on Comstock's not-so-illustrious hitting. Comstock has nothing to offer but bitter acrimonious partisanship and political hackery of the worst kind and will be shown up for the wingnut she is

[truthnjustice]

correction: history, not hitting

[Office 2010]

Had been thinking about Lindsey's new vibram fivefingers ever since she posted about them on this blog. When she first sent me a photo of these bizarre looking vibram five,I just laughed at their vibram fivefingers ridiculousness, thinking 'no way I'll ever put those things on my five finger feet! But alas, once I saw them and read about them, I just couldn't stop thinking about them! I had to try them for myself. Last week I went to Blue five fingers Ridge Mountain Sports in Charlottesville,

[notlarrysabato.typepad.com]

34th district seat in peril for democrats.. WTF? :)

[farPjd]

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