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DanielK

Maybe he is still upset that Terry lost? Who knows what's been going on since the primary.....Maybe he is expecting Creigh to kiss his ass in order to get the support he had back in 2005.

Salem Republicans

When your entire campaign is yelling "ME TOO," it's hard to generate much support.

http://roanokevalleyrepublicans.blogspot.com/2009/07/creigh-deeds-me-too-campaign-is-in-full.html

Not Barack Obama

hmm...well...Creigh Deeds not winning the billionaire vote...sad day....those rich bastards are just afraid of more taxation on themselves to help the rest of America...fuck them.

yoyoyo

Terry and Moran need to get out there and get these players on board with Creigh, yo.

Not Jim Moran

well Deeds is a lot more liberal than he was 4 years ago..and looks like history is repeating itself with the African american endorsements...

Dan

This may seem like a major deal to the tiny fraction of the electorate who read political blogs. We follow everything. Significant and insignificant alike.

Real people don't even know about this. And they damn sure don't care about it. Let's talk about it after the votes are counted in November.

I encourage my Republican friends to remain overconfident about McDonnell's prospects. And, as always, I invite them to continue to underestimate Deeds. Underestimating you is the greatest gift your opponents can ever give you.

Last time I checked, regular folks get the same one vote at the polls on election day as billionaires do.

Hank Bostwick

Well said, Dan.

Salem Republicans

Dan

I agree with you in large part although I think it is somewhat relevant. The Dems really began making headway into Virginia in 2001 when Mark Warner expanded the traditionally D coalition and brought in independents and some Rs who had voted R since 1993. That was a major sea change in Virginia.

Now what we see is, for the first time since 2001, that the Warner coalition is at least back in play. It isn't Johnson or Kirk or anyone else by themselves. It's the fact that the Rs finally have a message and messenger that can legitimately fight for that middle ground. We'll have see in November if these folks are anomalies or whether this plays out in the vote totals.

Regardless, you have to think Deeds is disappointed that he has lost 1 deep pocket and may be losing a 2nd.

VA Blogger

Dan, the significance isn't that Kirk himself is neutral or that Johnson endorsed McDonnell. Those are the symptoms of an underlying cause, and that cause does have a dramatic effect on the race.

Sam

Speaking as a Dem, I seriously doubt these endorsements sway any voters at all (I reference my argument yesterday that endorsements are generally worthless). However, to echo the sentiments of others, in a state that has no contribution limits, the loss of possible massive donations does hurt, unquestionably.

Kirk has not endorsed McDonnell, however, and my guess is he goes to Deeds in the end (God only knows what he's holding out for, though).

Salem Republicans

Sam - RJ Kirk is the prefect example of the Warner effect. Until 2001, RJ had a 100% Republican donation history on the state level. He, like many in the business community, only became D donors because of Mark Warner. The point is that the Warner coalition is now back in play and Ds can't take it for granted (apparently).

Don't be shocked if a lot of "Warner Ds" come back to McDonnell or sit this one out.

kelley in virginia

maybe these "Warner Ds" are upset with the O bama Dem administration in general or maybe they are aghast that their "namesake", Mark Warner, voted for the stimulus, Give Act, etc.

kelley in virginia

ok, yall will be angry at me because i said something negative about Mark Warner, no matter how he votes.

consider this: deeds doesn't need any of these people who are endorsing McDonnell. at the end of the day, if he can access the Obama voter ID & GOTV effort, he needs nothing else.

do you think this is a valid point?

HisRoc

kelley in virginia,

No.

In this day and age, no one can win without carrying the Independent middle. Go back and re-read the comments on this article from the beginning and you will find wisdom. This is the Warner Effect going in the opposite direction and it does not bode well for Virginia Democrats.

change

Funny that libs are not only bashing black women, but now bashing “rich” lib supporters (please don’t tell Streisand). Those poster like “danny” are losing control because even the “working liberals” are not so fond of paying for people like him staying at home and playing on his computer all day long.
In the words of that great Obambi mentor… “the chickens are coming home.... to roost”.

novamiddleman

The Obama vote was a onetime thing. For starters African American turnout will never be that high ever again. Remember also Deeds is weakest with African Americans.

The Warner effect is real and unlike last time with Kaine there are no Warner coattails/succession bruhaha. And besides Kaines legacy is mediocre at best and thats being nice.

McDonnell isn't as dumb as Allen and is unlikely to make as big a verbal gaff.

Overall its been a good week for McDonnell. With that being said most people aren't paying attention at all and its going to be very close regardless.

Spank That Donkey

Who needs a Democrat in the Governor's Mansion when you can get a Republican Governor... to you know raise the ahem.. revenues you need?

Get with the program Dems, and quit your freaking whining...

Stonewall Brigade

BO is an albatross around the Ds neck just like Bush was for the GOP the last 4 years. Look for a McD win by 5 to 6 points and HOD gains of 2 to 3 for the GOP in Nov.

kelley in virginia

i don't know, obama still has 97% approval rating with blacks. i don't discount the black vote.

Sue Brown

Obama may have it, but will Deeds. If Sheila Johnson is any indication, he won't.

Will Deeds ever come out first on a major issue or will be content to play 'Me Too" from now until November?

I gotta say, Bob's transportation plan has lots of stuff in it that people are going to LOVE, LOVE, LOVE. Does Deeds have a plan yet?

Is he still wondering around looking for the pony?

Sam

My prediction is that little of the stuff that happens this summer matters in the end. As much as the Gov. race is local, this close to D.C., federal issues can't be ignored. My guess is if the economy is recovering and Obama's popularity bumps up in November, Deeds wins. Otherwise it will be McDonnell. Not a prediction, just a guess.

Bruce

If Deeds is counting on the Obama-vote to get him over the top this year, he faces a big challenge.

In the past, Doug Wilder has refused to endorse him. Now Mrs. Johnson is on McDonnell's team. These are trailing indicators - they are not shifting opinion but reflecting it. Deeds is not trusted in the African-American community. He is a good 'ol boy from the southern part of the state. He has no African-American on the ticket. And their is less motivation as Obama already won.

Why would African-Americans in places like Chesapeake and Richmond turn out to vote for a ticket comprised of a good 'ole boy endorsed by the NRA and representing those rural folks in the south, a rich businesswoman from the tidewater area, and a pale irishman (orginally from Chicago, now from Fairfax)? What drives them to the polls? It is not fear of McDonnell (the Johnson endorsement does help him here). It is not fear of Bolling (he's from Richmond and has been in office for four years reaching out to them). It is not Cuccinelli (most are people of faith and pro-life/against gay marriage) - though some may try to turn him into the boogeyman with the community.

The truth is, the Democratic ticket is not inspiring to the Obama base - liberal activists, minority groups and others have no stake in turning out this year.

This is the gap Deeds must overcome and why the endorsmeent of Johnson and the lack of support from the business community is bad news for Dems: it is a sign that they are not reaching this base or the Warner base.

(P.S. billionaires may have only one vote, but it takes millions to reach all the other voters. Losing a six figure donor does impact your ability to mail, call and reach other swing voters.)

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