Terry Kilgore Leading Rick Boucher!?!?!

Hearing from some very good national R sources that the NRCC was polling the 9th district in the last few weeks.  Apparently the environment is so bad out there that Delegate Terry Kilgore is leading Congressman Rick Boucher by 6 points!  The 9th district has historically been a swing district, but last year gave John McCain the biggest percentage of the vote of any Congressional District in Virginia.  Apparently Terry is very strongly considering jumping into this race in 2010...

Developing...

Comments

[Salem Republicans]

The 9th is the last bastion of old school Southern Democrats in Virginia. Boucher is likely to be the last D Congressman the 9th sees for a very long time. Most folks in this neck of the woods will tell you the Rs missed a huge opportunity by not challenging him in 2008. I'll be stunned if we don't run a strong candidate in 2010. It's a huge district geographically which gives a longtime incumbent a big leg up but it'll be an interesting race if Kilgore runs.

[Mr. GOP]

Terry would win. No doubt in my mind.

[Salem Republicans]

At the risk of monopolizing the comment section, here are the recent numbers from the 9th. I pulled the top of the ticket race for the last 4 statewide races.

08 - 59-40 (McCain)
06 - 55-44 (Allen)
05 - 55-43 (Kilgore)
04 - 60-39 (Bush)

Obviously, these races each has its own dynamic (race being one of them). However, other than Mark Warner (who won 9th in 2001 and 2008), it's pretty clear that the 9th is +10-20 R in statewide races making it by far the most R district in VA. The fact that Boucher has never been seriously challenged says a lot about what an institution he's become in the 9th.

A well funded Kilgore versus Boucher would be a VERY interesting matchup.

[Sam]

This has nothing to do with current trends. The 9th District has been red for years. Boucher is a very entrenched incumbent, and has done a fabulous job of both constituent services, and scaring legit contenders out of the race. He hasn't really been challenged in years, and my guess is he'd have lost years ago if he had been.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Actually Sam, if you knew anything about campaigns and "surge" elections, you would know this has everything to do with trends. For example if the R's have a 10% surge in turnout a 60% district would increase 6% to 66% while a 40% district would only surge 4% to 44%. So an R district held by a longtime D is more likely to flip than a moderate district where surges are more contained.

[Not Hussein]

Salem, Mark also carried the 9th in 1996, while losing statewide. Ditto for the Clinton-Gore ticket. There's no doubt that the 9th has trended GOP this past decade, but I can't fathom considering it more Republican than the 6th or 7th.

[RicJohn]

Wasn't Bill Carrico supposedly a strong challenger against Boucher as well? Didn't he end up losing miserably even as George Allen carried the district handily in 2006? Kilgore might hold Boucher to 55 or 60 percent, but I doubt he'd win.

[Vicksburg Pete]

My God. This is terrifying.

Rep. Boucher may look a little geeky, but he's been a tried-and-true performer for his district.

I'm scared.

[Garren Shipley]

If this is right (all I've got is rumors and rumors about rumors), it would hands down be the most hard-fought race in Va. for 2010. Well, depending on who shows up for the GOP in the 5th CD.

I've been hearing chatter about it, but haven't seen anything of substance about it.

[Salem Republican]

As an R who grew up in the 9th and now lives in the 6th on the border, I can tell you that most Rs here consider the 9th way more R. Once Boucher is gone it'll be solidified.

As for Carrico, he's a bad comparison. Didn't work hard, limited money, no name recognition and different climate. Don't't know if Terry wins but it'll be awfully fun.

[kelley in virginia]

boucher voted for cap 'n trade which obama himself said would make electric rates skyrocket. a by- product of cap 'n trade would be to severely, in not bankrupt, hurt the coal industry.

if that one vote alone doesn't sink boucher, then the Repubs should just sit home.

at the time, i thought it was political suicide for him.

and who knows what he thinks about obamacare.

[Garren Shipley]

The electric rates thing is an interesting consideration.

Here in the Shenandoah Valley, we've had a raft of rate hikes in the past couple of years, and the response has been intense and vitriolic.

If the 9th reacts like the 6th and western 10th does to the idea, any candidate who get saddled with the "higher electric bills" label is going to have a tough go of it.

[DCCyclone]

None of this really matters right now because there's no federal election this fall. This surely signals trouble for Deeds in the 9th, where he almost certainly outperform a typical statewide Democrat as he needs to in order to make up McDonnell's overperformance in Hampton Roads.

But for Boucher, this just doesn't matter much.

By next summer the debate will have changed completely. The economy WILL be better, even if only modestly so and perhaps MUCH better, and if Democrats pass something they can call "health care reform," then those items won't be driving voter behavior. And I'm guessing cap-and-trade will be completely off the table in the Senate as much as EFCA already has been, in which case that, too, won't drive voter behavior.

Sure, other things could happen to hurt Democrats. Maybe Afghanistan will blow up into a front-page debacle much like Iraq under Bush. Maybe the economy will sputter much worse than I think it will. Maybe Democrats will fail to pass any health care reform bill, a failure that WOULD matter into fall 2010. And maybe Senate Dems will bite off more than they should and still try to push a major global warming bill, which can keep cap-and-trade at the forefront of the news even if the Senate is against it.

But setting aside the uncontrollables, Congress typically plays it smart in an election year and goes small ball, and Congressional Democrats most likely will have learned enough from the failed Clinton effort to find something they can all vote for on health care.

Trying to guess what voters will care about in November 2010 is futile right now. And, as a result, early polling also is futile except as a measure of the CURRENT environment, FWIW which does not include any predictive value for the midterms.

[DCCyclone]

Oops, typo in my first sentence, where I meant to say Deeds will NOT outperform a typical Democrat in the 9th.

[kelley in virginia]

when can we talk about the 5th? we've had several Republicans announce, but i'm waiting for Sen. Hurt from Chatham or Sen. Ruff from Clarksville.

[Notroberthurt]

I consider VA-9 to be the home of one of the biggest "blunders" of 1994 for the GOP.

A math professor with no money, no organization, and not a prayer got 41% of the vote. If the GOP had nominated anyone with name recognition and a little money and organization they would have taken that seat in 1994.

Is Steve Fast still teaching math? Does he ever get involved in politics any longer?

[change]

DCC,
2010, unemployment will be above 10%, Obambi's honeymoon will be over and Afghanistan will (unfortunately) be a major issue.

Radical liberals will push so far left that Obambi's approval will be below 40% and the chickens will be comming home to roost.

1994 all over again, I only hope the repubs have learned something from their 15 year education.

[change]

Oops,
coming = coming, lest my spell check friend spok find me in another error, good thing I keep my dyslexia in chekc.

[NotAndySere]

This is bad, bad news for Boucher if it turns out to be true. The 9th was Obama's worst district for improvement over John Kerry, or lack thereof. The 5th was his second worst. Keep that in mind when talking about 2010.

If the NRCC is paying to drop a poll in the 9th, they sure as hell have looked at the 2nd, 5th, and 11th.

The result so far?

The GOP is uniting behind candidates in the 2nd and 11th. Without Obama to bail them out I think Nye and Connolly look very vulnerabe. But they are fracturing in the 5th over multiple second tier candidates after forcing out poor Ol' Virgil Goode.

Let's be clear, if Perriello was polling as badly as Boucher seems to be polling according to this rumor, you'd have to beat off Virgil Goode from the race like a Mexican pinata with a stick.

So when kelley name drops Ruff, I have to wonder if that's just because the latest talking points from Tucker Watkins say to name drop every single Republican in the 5th District in order to act like Perriello is vulnerable and the Republicans are just fighting their way to get to the nomination.

The same Tucker Watkins that blew this race in 2008.

The GOP has the set of candidates they need to win in the 2nd, 11th, and maybe even the 9th. Winning in the 5th will start with throwing out Tucker Watkins and cleaning house. Even Virgil could win again if he just stopped listening to Watkins.

[asmith]

DCCyclone,

You made some valid points, but I bet McDonnell does better in his new home in the Richmond media market than he does in Hampton Roads. Deeds was ahead in two delegate districts in polling a few weeks back.

Change,

Actually Obama trying to thread the needle on health care is giving him problems.

[Larry Sabato's Hairpiece]

NotAndySere:

Ruff would make sense to mention. He sought the seat before and it would certainly make sense that he might consider seeking it again. Whether he is or not, I have no idea, but it is not like mentioning the idea of Ruff being interested in a Congressional seat is out of left field.

As for polling and Virgil. Perriello can generically be polling badly while still being strong if the candidate is Virgil rather than someone else. Some opponents just will not be able to get over based on who they are, no matter how badly the incumbent is polling. Again, I have no idea if that is the case, but Perriello does not necessarily have to be polling well for Virgil to not be polling strongly.

[Not Frank Ruff]

Frank Ruff, Virginia's least effective state senator? The idea might have some appeal to Frank Ruff as he has nothing else to do in life besides campaign for office. But as for everyone else, you'd have to be an idiot of Tucker Watkins proportions to buy into such nonsense.

[Sue Brown]

Boucher voted for Cap and Trade? If so, he is indeed suicidal.

If he doesn't vote against HCR, that would indicate that he has no intention to run next year, because those two votes will be the end of him in the 9th.

[bubba]

Senator Hurt though weould be an interesting candidate depending on how he markets himself. He's an unknown right now, but the same was said of Eric Cantor a couple of years ago as well.

[kelley in virginia]

1st: frank ruff is my state senator & he was my delegate before that. i think he is great.

2d: sen. hurt running against Perriello would be a great match-up.

[Bwana]

As noted above we have no idea what the political/economic conditions will be in November 2010.

However, if Rick Boucher has over his 27 years kept up his constituent service and is seen regularly throughout his district (which is not the easiest one to get around in), then I have to think it will take quite a surge to pick him off regardless of how the district polls currently.

[truth]

No matter what one might think of Perriello, he gets credit in my book for at least having the consideration for his constituents to hold meetings on the healthcare issue. I don’t know how they are going for him, but by simply showing up he places himself far above many of his peers.

[DCCyclone]

asmith, if you still visit this comment thread, I'd like clarification on what you meant by Deeds being ahead in 2 delegate districts a few weeks ago. Did you mean Greater Ricmond only, or statewide?

[TallPaul]

Who has done the Boucher polling?

[MartinsvilleDem]

While Perriello is busy defining himself as a pro-Obama Cap/Trade man, Sen. Hurt has continued to lay low and feel the prevailing winds. He's a smart dude, and his election numbers are astounding--even higher totals than Virgil in some of Virgil's best precincts. Perriello might as well write off Hurt's base and build on what he's got in C'ville.

[NOVANED]

You're right about Sen. Hurt's voter appeal, but he needs to watch that base you speak of. Times are hard way down in Southside and Obama's leftist agenda will have a greater appeal than it would have several years ago. Perriello and Hurt both have strong out-of-state financial resources. It would make a great race to watch and the R's and D's would probably pour in the national money.

[Virginia Visigoth]

The Kilgore camp has already been pledged 6 million by Washington interests.

[Joe "I'm not getting my money's worth" Wolfe]

Its pretty sad when an incompetent, fourth rate backwoods crook like Terry Kilgore (I know the guy personally, and I am a hard right winger) can be considered for Congress. I believe we would be better off electing chimp than this clown.