14 Days Out- House of Delegates Preview

When Republican's redrew the lines in the House of Delegates in 2001, they didn't just go from 53 members of their caucus to 66 that were won.  They actually drew many more seats to be competitive if they opened up this decade.  Of the 34 Democrats in the House after that election,11 of them (2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 10th, 17th, 37th, 39th, 44th, 64th and 99th) were seats the Republicans planned to win in 01, or drew in hopes of winning later in the decade as trends continued.  Even with a political headwind, Republicans did win the 6th and 17th after 2001, and briefly held the 99th before Rob Wittman headed to Congress.  Had the political winds been different in 2003, 2005 and 2007- all Democratic years- Republicans might hold as many as 76 of the 100 seats today in the House.

Of those 24 seats drawn to be Democratic strongholds, Dems have held them throughout the decade in 23 of the 24 seats- while a onetime fluke in Norfolk happened in 2001 because of an incumbent's legal trouble that was quickly reversed back to the Democrats in 2003.  So we can look at these 24 seats as the base of the party.  In the other 76...

A combination of luck and timing have allowed the Democrats to win 21 of the 76 seats Republicans hoped to have now.  Incumbents in western Virginia where a much larger population in the districts knows incumbents personally have refused to retire in the 2nd, 4th, and 10th districts (Bud Phillips, Joe Johnson, Ward Armstrong) allowing Democrats to hold those seats throughout the decade.  A similar dynamic is in play in the 64th district straddling the James River near Williamsburg where Bill Barlow hasn't retired and held his seat.  Two Northern Virginia incumbents (Vivian Watts and Kris Amundson) who were targeted for defeat in 2001 after their districts were redrawn hung on in tough races that year- and since then have easily held their seats.  Chap Petersen upset an incumbent in the 37th district in 2001, and Democrats have held his NoVA seat since then.  Finally Dan Bowling won a special election in Southwest Virginia when Republicans failed to field a serious candidate right after the Governor's election in 2005 to hold that longtime Dem seat in the Democratic column for the rest of the decade  Those eight seats, along with the 24 Democratic leaning seats that were drawn have been the only seats consistently in the Democratic column since the 2001 redistricting- for a fairly meager and pathetic total of 32 of 100 seats.

The rest of the current caucus of 45 have come in waves- and mostly in open seats.  Of the 14 seats that Republicans have held this decade that Democrats currently have, only 3 saw Republican incumbents defeated.  The other 11 were all open seats- with a mix of retirements downballot from other Democratic victories and special elections.  This has left a large group of first and second term Democrats who won their seats on mostly coattails now facing a serious challenge in districts likely to be carried by Bob McDonnell this year.  This means in most cases these new Democratic incumbents must win a crossover vote in order to hold their seats- which many of them have never shown any ability to do in the past.  That's why there are so many competitive seats this year that are currently held by Democrats.

With that introduction, let's go through the key 2009 races, one by one.  This has slightly changed since I announced the ratings last week- and the changes are reflected in the categories here.

Safe Democratic- 29 Seats

The Republican wave this year has reduced Democrats to only 29 "safe" seats.  These are the 23 of the 24 seats drawn to be Democratic that are discussed above (with the open seat currently held by Bob Hull being the only exception)- along with six seats (Phillips, Johnson, Bulova, Sickles, Pollard, Watts) where Republicans either failed to field a serious opponent- or in a couple cases- any opponent at all!  Every other seat currently held by Democrats has some level of vulnerability this year depending on the size of the McDonnell wave and where it occurs strongest.

Likely Democratic- 5 Seats

10th District- Ward Armstrong vs. Edward Creed
Outlook:  Likely Democratic

Armstrong is one of the most powerful Democrats in Richmond, has won a huge crossover vote in his district in the last few elections he was contested and his opponent hasn't really run a campaign.  Yet this election isn't going to bring Ward his normal margin of victory.  Why?  Besides the statewide McDonnell headwind and the failure of the "Deeds Country" tour to deliver any real rural support outside of Creigh's Senate district- Ward's leadership of the party in Richmond may reduce some of his usual crossover support.  In 1997 Republicans fielded a similar non-challenge to Democratic Leader Dickie Cranwell and with the Gilmore coattails he only survived by 600 votes.  I expect Armstrong will do better than that this year, but it won't be the margins that Ward is used to.

38th District- Kaye Kory vs. Danny Smith
Outlook:  Likely Democratic

In the June primary, Fairfax School Boarder Kaye Kory defeated incumbent Bob Hull in this Democratic stronghold district that runs close to the Arlington and Alexandria borders in eastern Fairfax.  This should be an easy hold for Democrats, but the combination of an open seat and the lack of a serious Deeds campaign has kept this race out of the "safe" column this year.  In fact, this district may only be a small margin of victory for Deeds- and with a weaker Democratic candidate and a stronger GOP candidate that could win some crossover, this could have been a serious problem this year.  But Kory is stronger than Hull was overall (although a little less well known) and should win anyway- but not with the margin you might usually expect here.

41st District- Dave Marsden vs. Kerry Bolognese
Outlook:  Likely Democratic

This was one of the seats that has flipped since the 2001 redistricting, when Marsden won the open seat held by Jim Dillard- with Dillard's backing- in 2005.  But for a former Republican with a Republican Delegate's backing, Marsden barely finished with any crossover vote in 2005, only barely edging out Tim Kaine's vote total that year.  Now, Marsden faces a GOP challenger with a big question mark hanging over his swing district of who will carry it for Governor.  That very close result up-ballot will make this race much closer than Democrats want it to be.  However, I don't see this as being a big McDonnell district in any scenario- and Marsden will win some crossover as the incumbent.  I just don't see any way Bolognese can get to 51% without an even bigger Republican wave- but I would be equally shocked if he didn't easily beat the 40% Republicans got here in 2005. 

87th District- Paula Miller vs. John Amiral
Outlook:  Likely Democratic

This is another district Democrats picked up since the 01 redistricting- this time in a 2004 special election after Thelma Drake was elected to Congress.  Amiral isn't a real candidate- he is running with very little support behind him.  But this district will certainly go for Bob McDonnell for Governor- so that would help anyone with an (R) next to their names here this year.  Miller has shown a good crossover vote ability in the past, which makes her the heavy favorite for re-election despite the environment out there.  Anything under 60% could draw Miller a stronger challenger when the lines are redrawn in 2011.

100th District- Lynwood Lewis vs. Melody Scalley
Outlook:  Likely Democratic

This district which is based on the Eastern Shore, will also go to McDonnell this year.  But Lewis is a tremendously strong and popular incumbent with tremendous crossover vote potential.  Because of the environment this might be his closest election ever, but McDonnell would probably need to win by 20% statewide to give Scalley a real chance to win.

Leans Democratic- 1 Seat

44th District- Scott Surovell vs. Jay McConville
Outlook:  Leans Democratic

The 44th was drawn for a Republican takeover in 2001, but the Warner coattails washed away some of the increased Republican vote put here and allowed Kris Amundson to hang on.  Since then, she has easily walked away with each election.  But it is not yet clear whether or not her improved numbers were because the district was getting more Democratic- or if she was getting more popular.  I think it was a combination of both- which has given Surovell an edge throughout this campaign to replace Kris.  This district will be competitive at the Governor's level this year, and a stronger GOP candidate could have made this a very serious race.  As it is, McConville is going to get a good percentage of the vote- but its very hard to see his route to 51% and a win- without Bob McDonnell picking up 5-10% in the polls in the last couple of weeks.

Slight-Lean Democratic- 4 Seats

35th District- Mark Keam vs. Jim Hyland
Outlook:  Slight-Lean Democratic

On paper, the 35th district is exactly the kind of open seat you might see flip in a Republican wave election.  In fact the last Republican to win this district- Jeannemarie Devolites- won downballot from Jim Gilmore in 1997.  But Keam has absolutely outworked and outsmarted Hyland who has spent much of his campaign account on consultants instead of voter contact.  (Jim, save the money and just wear red next time).  So while everything is breaking towards the GOP here, I think Keam has the slight edge going into election day.  It's really going to come down to Keam's ability to fire up the Democratic vote in his precincts with younger voters near Vienna Metro and Fair Oaks Mall that Deeds is failing to turn out- if Keam can get them to show up, he should survive here.  But make no mistake about it- despite Hyland's mistakes this election is VERY competitive going into the closing two weeks.

52nd District- Luke Torian vs. Rafael Lopez
Outlook:  Slight-Lean Democratic (Pickup)

The 52nd district is solid Democratic territory in southern Prince William County.  But Prince William Democrats have allowed this area to become virtually irrelevant in county elections- and its low voter turnout allows off-off year elections (like 2003, 2007 and 2011) to be much more competitive for local Republicans through very low turnout.  Governor's years are better, and Democrats almost beat the incumbent Jeff Frederick here in 2005 for that reason- but a candidate who was too old to even doorknock came up just short in a 51-49 loss.  For most of the year this appeared to be a slam dunk for a Democratic takeover- but the Deeds campaign has failed to energize minority voters all over Virginia- and that has taken a big toll here.  If Frederick was still on the ballot, I have no doubt he would be able to hang on in this environment.  This seat is still tilting towards a Democratic takeover- but it is no sure thing- even with a weak Republican candidate and an open seat.

64th District- Bill Barlow vs. Stan Clark
Outlook:  Slight-Lean Democratic

This district is split on either side of the James River with Isle of Wight County anchoring the district on one side, and James City/Williamsburg anchoring on the other.  In the 2005 election, the splits on either side of the river really exploded- with Barlow running well above his ticket south of the river where he lives, and his Republican opponent Troy Lapetina running above his ticket on the north side of the river- much more so than a challenger can usually win against an incumbent.  With the population bigger on the south side, Barlow was able to win.  So this time, Republicans have nominated Stan Clark- a local Supervisor in Isle of Wight on the south side of the river to compete with Barlow in his own political base.  That combined with the much stronger Republican ticket upballot would finish off Barlow if he stayed weak north of the river.  But from people I have spoken to here, it appears Delegate Barlow has really improved in his constituent services in Williamsburg since 2005 and won't have any problem holding the Democratic vote there against an opponent who doesn't live north of the river.  So that should give Barlow the slight edge heading into election day- even though this is likely to be a McDonnell district.  But this will be a very close fight all the way to the finish.

93rd District- Robin Abbott vs. Phil Hamilton
Outlook:  Slight-Lean Democratic (Democratic Pickup)

Despite this district's Democratic leaning, if Hamilton had just kept his corruption secret this would have been a great environment to run for re-election in.  But the August news of Hamilton's deal with ODU has struck a nerve, and given his Democratic challenger the upper hand heading into election day. Yet despite condemnation from Bob McDonnell and Bill Bolling, local Republicans continue to pass their flyers out and put signs up along side Hamilton's.  There is still some local GOP support for Phil and while the Democrats have the upper hand here, this one is not over yet.

Toss Up- 5 Seats

21st District- Bobby Mathieson vs. Ron Villanueva
Outlook:  Toss Up

The 21st district is by far the most Democratic in Virginia Beach (even voting for Webb and Kellam in 2006 as the rest of the Beach voted for Allen and Drake).  With an underwhelming GOP incumbent, Bobby Mathieson was able to win the seat in a landslide in 2007.  But the "Democratic" part of Virginia Beach is still Republican when they are having good years and with home-towner Bob McDonnell on the ticket this is going to be a great year for Beach Republicans.  Republicans also recruited their best possible candidate in local Councilman Villanueva.  Mathieson's former campaign manager stealing a lot of his campaign warchest isn't helping either.  I think this race will come down to momentum at the top of the ticket in the last two weeks- if McDonnell's lead starts to grow going into election day, it will probably be too much for Bobby to overcome here- if Deeds closes the gap, he can keep this district close enough to salvage a Democratic win here for Mathieson.

23rd District- Shannon Valentine vs. Scott Garrett
Outlook:  Toss Up

Lynchburg is actually not close to being what people stereotype the city to look like politically- it is very equally politically divided and competitive in most elections.  But that was before Liberty University decided to try to register the entire student body on campus to influence local elections.  Now despite a popular local Democratic incumbent who won a huge crossover vote in her special election for this seat in 2006- this seat is seriously in play.  There's absolutely no way to know who will win here- if Liberty fails to get the huge participation in wants, I think Valentine will have enough votes to survive.  If they do get all (or most) of their students to the polls- Garrett will win.  It's a turnout game here and not one the Democrats have the power to influence much.

32nd District- David Poisson vs. Tag Greason
Outlook:  Toss Up

A few weeks ago I suggested Tag might need a tissue after it was announced that he was sued while in the military for masturbating himself in front of a subordinate.  That would be enough to end most elections.  But if Tag needs a tissue, David needs a personality transplant.  He's failed to win any kind of crossover vote in his two elections so far- despite facing the far-right Dick Black in 2005 and being the incumbent in 2007.  This district voted Kaine/Byrne/McDonnell in 2005- and I think it will go to McDonnell again.  Poisson either figures out how to win some of those Republican voters, or he is gone.  This one is simple. I'd actually rate him as the underdog here if Tag didn't have the masturbation issue "shooting" around in the district.

34th District- Margi Vanderhye vs. Barbara Comstock
Outlook:  Toss Up

This part of McLean and Great Falls has always been Republican historically because of income- no legislative district in Virginia is richer.  So it is no surprise that this battle has also turned into one of the most expensive of 2009.  While Democrats won here in recent years thanks to disgust with Republicans the underlying dynamic never really changed much.  Now that Republicans are on the rebound- watch out for a win for Bob McDonnell in this district.  Margi finished behind the rest of her ticket in 2007- so she will need to hold the Democrats she lost last time and win a crossover vote for the first time to win this election.  Comstock gives her some openings to do so, but it is no slam dunk.  This one will be close all the way until election day.

67th District- Chuck Caputo vs. Jim Lemunyon
Outlook:  Toss Up

In western Fairfax Democrats thought the area had turned "blue" with Chuck's landslide victory over Chris Craddock in 2005.  But there were warning signs that this seat could be a problem going forward even in that election.  In many precincts around Fair Oaks Mall (younger and more Democrat than the rest of this district) Chuck was unable to win any kind of crossover vote against Craddock who was best known for his "Africans will have sex with anything with a pulse" line.  Even where Chuck did win some crossover it was not a lot for such a weak opponent.  In 2007 against Mark Cadin this became even more obvious as Chuck struggled south of Rt. 50 and squeaked out a victory.  Now with a real opponent and a Republican wave hitting, Chuck is in serious electoral trouble this year.  LeMunyon has stuck to key issues facing this area like education, transportation and keeping his family in identical outfits for pictures- and stayed away from the wedge issues.  McDonnell will win here in two weeks- if that is close Chuck will have a chance to pull this out.  Anything over a 10 point McDonnell win and this is lights out for Democrats.

Slight-Lean Republican- 5 Seats

3rd District- Dan Bowling vs. Will Morefield
Outlook:  Slight-Lean Republican (Pickup)

Rarely in this site's history have we rated incumbents lower than a "tossup" for re-election unless they were completely scandal plagued.  But this race has quickly turned uphill for the Democratic incumbent as this pro-coal district in southwest Virginia feels under attack by the national Democratic party.  Morefield has run a very smart campaign focusing on federal issues.  The district's largest county- Buchanan- was the highest percentage of any white majority county in the country for Michael Dukakis in 1988.  Last year it voted for John McCain- the first time it has ever voted Republican for President.  Unless something big changes in the next two weeks it is about to get its first Republican Delegate.

42nd District- Greg Werkheiser vs. Dave Albo
Outlook:  Slight-Lean Republican

This is a rematch of the 2005 election where Albo hung up by under 1,000 votes downballot from the Kaine wave in Fairfax County.  You would think with Republicans having a big year this time and having survived 2005 that Albo would be cruising to re-election.   Not so much.  Albo's once mighty crossover vote ability (that drove him to 75% of the vote in 1997) was declining even before 2005- and post abuser-fees it barely exists.  In fact, if this year was as Democratic upballot as 2005, Albo wouldn't even have a shot anymore.  But that all means nothing if the Republicans sweep upballot this year in this district, I have seen nothing to suggest that Albo won't hold almost every GOP vote.  And if I had to guess today on the statewide results in this district, that is exactly what we are looking at.  If Albo wins, this will be a model for how little campaigns matter vs. the political environment- as Werkheiser has done a much better job in every area of his campaign this time than 2005.

51st District- Paul Nichols vs. Rich Anderson
Outlook:  Slight-Lean Republican (Pickup)

Again, rarely do we ever call an incumbent an underdog for their own re-election.  But Nichols barely defeated the incredibly weak Faisal Gill 51-49 in 2007.  Prince William is better for Democrats in Governor's years than off-off year elections, but the Republicans also have the wind at their back this year.  It's not clear if Anderson's attempt to throw the hay-maker by announcing Nichols' arrest record was successful or not- but either way he is going into the last couple weeks as the favorite here.  I think anyone who could complete a sentence would have beaten Nichols this year...

83rd District- Joe Bouchard vs. Chris Stolle
Outlook:  Slight-Lean Republican (Pickup)

This is a rematch of the 2007 election that elected Bouchard in the closest House race in Virginia.  Both candidates are back- but the environment has really shifted here.  With hometown candidate Bob McDonnell on the ballot in this Beach district- plus his brother running for Sheriff- Stolle has taken a real upper-hand heading into election day.  Again, rarely do we ever call an incumbent the underdog, but its going to take some help from Creigh Deeds upballot to close the margin here in order to save Bouchard.

86th District- Stevens Miller vs. Tom Rust
Outlook:  Slight-Lean Republican

Democrats couldn't have recruited a stronger challenger here than Miller, a Loudoun County Supervisor and he has run an excellent campaign. But the statewide ticket is dragging Miller down, and Rust always wins some crossover votes in Herndon.  What looked like an easy Democratic pickup earlier this year from demographics now has a Republican upper-hand heading into the final two weeks.  If Creigh recovers and makes the state close this district will be heavy for him- and Miller will have a shot.  Otherwise Rust has survived the biggest challenge of his political career with a little luck.

Leans Republican- 0 Seats

Likely Republican- 5 Seats

7th District- Peggy Frank vs. Dave Nutter
Outlook:  Likely Republican

In 2007, Frank surprised a lot of observers by breaking over 45% without any statewide support.  Back for a rematch this year, she got some early buzz as a potential Democratic pickup, and looked to be a big beneficiary of Creigh Deeds' nomination and focus on Western Virginia.  Instead- Creigh has collapsed and made this race virtually impossible without a big crossover vote for Frank.  Unfortunately for her, the 2007 race woke Nutter up and she won't be getting that vote by sneaking up on him.  Peggy's best chance now is a miracle.

13th District- John Bell vs. Bob Marshall
Outlook:  Likely Republican

Every cycle Democrats make noise about defeating Marshall.  And every cycle, Marshall rings their "bell" in this GOP stronghold.  At least this time the newspapers will have a cute headline.

14th District- Seward Anderson vs. Danny Marshall
Outlook:  Likely Republican

Danville looked like a prime area for Democratic takeover this year, after Tom Perriello crushed Virgil Goode here, and Democrats were coming off a tight 51-49 loss in 2007.  Former Mayor Anderson was highly touted as a strong Democratic challenger as well.  But the statewide environment and the failed "Deeds Country" tour have driven Democrats into a ditch here politically- and Marshall should easily dispatch this challenge.

58th District- Cynthia Neff vs. Rob Bell
Outlook:  Likely Republican

This Albemarle-based seat is in the heart of Creigh's Senate district and is one place where his being on the ballot will help the local Delegate candidate.  But Neff doesn't seem to have a lot of appeal to the crossover votes Creigh will get here, and Bell has had years of excellent constituent service.  This was one to watch early on, but it doesn't look like any sort of upset is brewing here.

91st District- Sam Eure vs. Tom Gear vs. Gordon Helsel
Outlook:  Likely Republican

The Democrat is a non factor in this Poquoson-based seat, one of the most Republican in the Commonwealth.  Gear's main challenger is Helsel, the current Mayor of Poquoson. He's a strong challenger with great local support- but this is a partisan race, and in such a heavy GOP district in a heavy GOP year, it will be tremendously difficult to defeat Gear.  But the attempts by the local establishment to do so every two years (often with excellent candidates) are pretty hysterical- and eventually might be successful.

Safe Open Seats- 4 Safe Republican, 3 Safe Democratic

Republicans have four open seats they are defending this year which are "safe" to stay in their column.  The 20th district, current home of Chris Saxman is certain to replace him with Dickie Bell.  Democrats didn't even field a candidate to succeed Clarke Hogan, where James Edmunds will win unopposed.  John Cox has a lock on the Hanover based seat currently held by Frank Hargrove.  Finally, Democrats made some early noise about trying to take William Fralin's seat around Roanoke by fielding a local Councilwoman, but William Cleaveland will win without breaking a sweat.

On the Democratic side, Betsy Carr will be replacing Frank Hall in Richmond, while Matthew James replaces Kenny Melvin in Portsmouth.  Finally in the Arlington seat currently held by Al Eisenberg, primary winner Patrick Hope is almost certain to win- even if this somehow became a horse race in the last couple weeks, Patrick would definitely win by a nose.  In his case, that might be a pretty big win actually.

Comments

[Salem Republicans]

Having a hard time finding much in there I disagree with. Here is one Roanoke Valley R's take on the 17th.

http://roanokevalleyrepublicans.blogspot.com/2009/10/house-of-delegates-preview-17th.html

[Dirty Deeds, and They're Done Dirt Cheap]

What about the 6th District race between Carole Pratt and Annie Crockett-Stark?

[Not Larry Sabato]

Safe Republican hold.

[Brian W. Schoeneman]

"But Keam has absolutely outworked and outsmarted Hyland..."

How? Exactly what has Keam been doing in terms of outworking Hyland? I haven't seen a single Keam yard sign not on public property - I have seen plenty of Hylands just driving around Vienna. I haven't gotten a piece of mail, a door knock or even a robocall from Keam. If I wasn't paying attention to this race because it's my district, I would have no idea who Mark Keam is. Unless he is strictly working inside Democratic constituencies, I haven't seen any evidence that he's working at all.

[Brian W. Schoeneman]

Also, good to see this finally out. :) I can see why it took so long.

[Not Bentard]

I laughed when I read your write-up on the 35th, and I have no choice but to agree with Brian W. Schoeneman.

There are two Three Dem houses in my neighborhood that have Hyland yard signs. This might be down to the wire, with Jim crossing the finish line first.

You should reconsider the 35th as a toss-up, as all of us rank-and-file Dems are doing here in Oakton and Oak Marr.

[notsophialoren]

Wow, good anaylsis. Whether you agree or disagree a lot to think about. DEms need to keep working hard.

[Not Jimmy Carter]

Comstock wins.

[B]

BREAKING!! Bob Opens up 19 point lead over Deeds. Insult to Injury! http://www.wdbj7.com/Global/story.asp?S=11347520

[SE VA MWC Alum]

91st is actually not Poquoson based-its 50% Hampton, closer than this analysis sand approximately 25% each Poquoson & York. Its also closer than Ben suggests. Helsel wins Poquoson big, and Hpt is quite close. Gear will win comfortably in York as the anti-Gear vote is split. (Eure is from York). This should be a slight lean R.

[Gosport.Conservative]

Matthew James is no lock in the 80th, polling has that as a small single digit lead, James has done no groundwork, phone calls or door knocking. Strong ticket presence may tip this over. District is leans Democratic, not a lock.

[Not Michael Jackson]

I'd only make one change and thats drop Tom Gear's race to a toss-up considering his staff are halfwits and probably would get the election wrong if the party didn't remind them. I mean COME ON! has anyone seen tom gear's lit?

[JoAnn]

What about Delegate Sam Nixon? Is he safe?

[change]

Ben,

Great analysis.

First, McDonnell will not win by over 10 points but I agree it looks pretty good for republicans.
I think things get better as democrats in Washington continue to abuse their power and lead our country further into the abyss of spending/borrowing and cronyism.
Just as the republicans made their mistakes on spending the democrats have done the same on steroids. Citizens are losing jobs and looking at tax increases and debt as far as the eye can see.
The “not so transparent” manner in the current health care debate only adds fuel to the fire.

All of this (not to mention gitmo, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, N.K.) has a major effect on voters in VA particularly in NOVA.
I hope these elections in VA will give pause to some of these abusers and they will reconsider their actions.

Frankly, I could care less if there is a R or D after someone’s name. I hope they begin to realize that we need to be conservative in our government, we can not be “all things to all people”.
Hopefully VA will lead the way to a renewed understanding of America’s values. Not only should the democrats take notice, but also liberal republicans, as we move to 2010 and 2011 elections.

I assume that Sam/Dan/Doug/DCC etc. will be very unhappy with your opinions.

[Not Ben Tribbett]

If Will Morefield defeats Dan Bowling, Morefield will be the youngest member of the House of Delegates. Morefield will be 26 years old. The Democrats did file an opponent against James Edmunds in the 60th District, but David Guill (D) withdrew from the race.

[Ghost of RWR]

Ben, you need to revise. The GOP is headed for a blowout. As you can see from this USA Survey poll released today, http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=83ab7b50-6f0f-4257-9c76-c8d22c795ab6 this will rip the guts out of the Democrat's GOTV effort.

Moreover, you could not be more wrong on Bobby Mathieson vs. Ron Villanueva calling it a toss up. Bobby is headed for s big defeat.

Also Jim Hyland will win in this environment, for sure. So will Lopez in the 52nd. Hamilton is headed for victory too.

November 3rd will be the biggest bloodletting in the House of Delegates the Democrats have seen since 2001.

Message to Minority Leader Ward Armstrong: focus on your law practice. It’s going to be a long decade.

[Barbara Munsey]

Pretty comprehensive, and overall fascinating.

Hope your leg is better, BTW!

Have to disagree that Miller is a "strong candidate" in the 86th.

Most of his resume is of the shoulda woulda oughta variety.

I live in his Loudoun magisterial district, and he held the office for one year before renting a house in the only precinct that would let him try this.

He spent the first year whining about the low pay and the hard work, then did an about face for grandstanding purposes the week before he moved to run.

His "sign ordinance" won't be available for review until after the election, let alone publicly heard or passed.

His business address is the house he moved out of in Ashburn to run in Sterling.

He voted against schools in his own district, and has a habit of cronyism.

Not too good on such a short resume.

The out-of-state union money is buying him a lot of ads, but most have been the lie about Rust "voting against" autism.

I don't think Miller is anywhere near as shiny as you're painting him.

[Sam]

Contrary to change's assertions, I actually agree with all of Ben's analysis, except I think Danny Marshall's even safer than Ben does...

Brian, depends on what part of the 35th you visit. There are swaths of Vienna where you find dozens of Keam signs on non-public property without a sign of a Hyland sign anywhere. I think Ben has it right. Slight-lean Keam, but only slight.

[Ron]

Ghost of RWR, there is no way that Hyland will win "for sure". Him winning would be a pretty big upset. Deeds got 58% in that district in 2005 even as he was losing statewide. He will carry that district and carry Keam with him.

[One who knows better]

If you lived in Loudoun you would know how wrong you are about Stevens Miller. If the Dems had chosen almost anyone else this seat would lead Dem.

Not only is Miller not popular with the GOP, most Dems think he is a total ASS. And he is.

Yes he won his Supervisor seat, but that was a vote against a very un-popular incumbent. He would not win his seat if he ran today.

Miller is a jerk, and a strange one at that.

[CarolineProgressive]

A couple of things about that SurveyUSA poll floating around in the comments seem weird. 61% of 18-34 year olds support McDonnell? Also McDonnell gets 31% of African-Americans? Listen, I know we're down, but this poll is garbage.

SurveyUSA, like Rasmussen, is a really good "trend" pollster but not a good "actual results" pollster. Of course, that doesn't make up for the fact that the trend isn't getting any better.

[Rejuvenated Dem]

The 23rd HoD should be lean or slight-lean Democratic. Valentine has a ton of cash for the final push, her support growing daily with each new outrageous lie by the Garrett campaign. She has the active support of many moderates and quite a few Republicans. Her ground game is the strongest in Lynchburg history, every Democrat from every campaign of the past has joined her historic effort.

Jerry Falwell Jr has stated he not as concerned about this race but wants to make sure their presence is known during City Council elections in May 2010. He has yet to make a statement of support for Garrett. This is seen by some as tacit acceptance of Valentine's effective leadership in the House of Delegates.

[asmith]

Pretty good analysis Ben.

The right wing types in VB don't like the Stolle's very much and I bet many of them will vote McDonnell/Bolling/Cuccinelli and then go home if they live in the 83rd district. That could be enough to derail Chris Stolle and his Washington money again.

Having said that there's enough oceanfront/Shore drive Republicans that Ken Stolle will be elected sheriff without a problem.

If Bouchard was the incumbent in the 82nd or the 85th against Stolle where McDonnell has major pull he'd be done. You need to walk that district and realize how many people rembember Joe when he was CO of Naval Station Norfolk and like him.

I think Bobby is in good shape though it will be close. Ron was a good candidate on paper but isn't turning heads in this low turnout district.

The GOP will still have a good day on balance. As Tucker Martin says, the GOP has been beaten in this state in every race in the last few years from prom queen to President

[Young Repubulican]

What about Purkey in the 82nd and Jennifer Lee in the 80th?

[anon]

There's a reason why McCain won Buchanan County, and it's not coal. It does have to do with the color black, though. Care to guess?

[Richmond Republican]

I don't think you should completely dismiss Ernesto Sampson's chance for a strong showing in the 69th. He has a serious presence in the district and is running a strong grassroots campaign. Betsy Carr on the other hand, has sat back and done little since her narrow primary victory. She only belatedly began campaigning after she realized the seat was not going to be handed to her on a silver platter. She'll might win this purely based on the district's demographics, but her complacency and Ernesto's energy and focus might give Richmond Democrats heartburn on election night. The Times-Dispatch has also picked up on the potential for an upset here.

http://www2.timesdispatch.com/rtd/news/state_regional/state_regional_govtpolitics/article/DELS04_20091003-222407/297345/

The 69th district race should be likely Democrat, not Safe Democrat

[Not Steve Shannon]

LeMunyon has been on the air in the 67th with that cruise ship ad for a week -- unanswered by Caputo, who is low on cash. This one leans R.

[James Young]

Lyn Lewis in the 100th is about as conservative a Democrat as you'll find in Virginia, and a personal friend from college. He almost makes it respectable to vote Democrat.

[DCCyclone]

Nice job, Ben. Your is the pessimistic end of the Democratic spectrum, combining your detailed analysis with your overall statement earlier that we could be anywhere from minus-1 to minus-11 depending on turnout and coattails.

New Dominion Project is the optimistic end of the spectrum, I think they're drinking quite a bit of Kool-Aid over there and I said so on some of their out-of-touch picks. But I hope after the election to be apologizing to them for saying that and bringing the hammer down on you! :-)

[DCCyclone]

I'll add that in the 34th, my district where I've been active, I get the sense Vanderhye has the edge. Dovetailing with Ben's point on some Dems needing a crossover vote, I've stated before here and elsewhere that Margi Vanderhye DEFINITELY has crossover votes, and Comstock does NOT. So Comstock needs more straight Rs to show up than straight Ds to offset that. I'm doubtful that the straight R turnout advantage will be enough in this district to make up the difference.

I also know Vanderhye, unlike Deeds, has run a technically sound
campaign for a very long time. I was canvassing for her in Chesterbrook precinct back in MAY, pre-primary, when her campaign manager contacte me in response to my online volunteer sign-up. They've been very aggressive courting and enlisting volunteers the whole way, and have spent money, too, when needed on field efforts. Margi herself is hard-working. And the media on her end has been a mix of positive and contrast messaging, while all the Comstock stuff I've seen on TV has been all attack all the time, with nothing to say about herself. The ads are practically the mirror image of Deeds-McDonnell, with Vanderhye's messaging like McDonnell's and Comstock following the Deeds model.

[change]

Sam,
I see from your recent posts you have resigned yourself to the fact that VA voters are seeing through the democrats BS and moving towards a sweep in this election.
No matter how you try to frame it, the dem’s, and Obambi/Reid/Pelosi in particular, have done in months what the republicans took years to do; namely, alienate the independents.
They have shown the public what they are really all about; and Americans are not buying the bill of goods they are selling.
Further, the democrats have compounded their problems with extreme arrogance and disregard for public opinion.
It is Good to see that the blue pills are wearing off, keep moving towards the light; it will be good for you and our posterity.

[change]

DCC,
Since you seem to have also resigned yourself to the republican sweep, would you care to enlighten us on your opinion on this potential phenomena?

As I am sure you have read, I believe it to be a complete abandonment of independents who believed in some real “change”; and are now not only disappointed, but extremely embarrassed because they were led astray by kind lies.

[Jimmy]

Hyland will win, barely. The reason being is that he received 45,000$ from the speaker a couple of days ago. With that boost of money, Hyland will now be able to aggressively campaign in the last two weeks.

[Max Shapiro]

90th and 100th are going to be way, way, way closer than you thought

[turd]

What about O'Bannon vs. Shields?

[Moi]

CarolineProgressive - SurveyUSA, like Rasmussen, is a really good "trend" pollster but not a good "actual results" pollster

Ummmm.... No. Do your homework. Survey USA was the most accurate poll in 2008 for Virginia. They called the race Obama 50 / McCain 46 in their final poll and "actual results" were Obama 52 / McCain 46.

Oh, yeah. In the 52nd, there's $150K being dumped on Torian by Lopez in the final two weeks here. Say goodbye to that potential pick-up as well.

[SuzyQ]

Ben,
Shame on you for repeating that lie about Tag Greason when you know, like everyone else, that all the charges were dropped, and that woman was serial accuser. She even accused her CO's wife of something, along with the CO, and 6 other people during her brief career in the army!

Tag is a fine man, and hard worker. He'll win because he deserves to win, and because he will be a wonderful, hard working, delegate for his district.

Rust will also win, easily. Everyone agrees that Stevens Miller is a weirdo who is ready to leave the job he's only had for a year and happy to cheat to do it, by renting a house in only the district that will have him.

LeMunyon will also win easily. Caputo has done nothing for the district. LeMunyon has knocked on 10,000 doors and listened to the people of his district. He'll be an awesome delegate.

While I'd love to see Jerry Hyland win, that's just wishful thinking. It will be a total shock if he pulls it out.

[VALoneRanger]

SuzyQ, I take it you mean Jim Hyland? Gerry Hyland isn't up for re-election this year.

[TheNation]

The Dems still control the Senate and should Cooch win (although, my "gut" tells me that Shannon may pull it out), the Dems should be able to pick up that seat adding to our majority in the General Assembly's upper chamber. My prediction is that should the HoD remain GOP and the Senate remain Dem, the "incumbent protection" program will probably kick in. As such there will be an unwritten agreement between the two parties regarding the partisan configuration of the HoD and the Senate.

As for the Congressionals...well, that's where the "fit will hit the shan."

[SuzyQ]

Barbara Comstock will win because she has campaigned more, is more visible, and because NO republican is going to cross over after those who did last year have been totally burned by Obama. It's a republican district, Barbara will win.

Yes, I mean JIM Hyland. I am surprised by the optimism here for his campaign. Perhaps I will be pleasantly surprised on election even.

I thought PPP was releasing a poll today? Were the results so bad that they decided to bury them?

[SuzyQ]

CarolineProgressive,
Why do liberals continue to say that Rasmussen is not accurate in their polling. In 2008 they were dead on with Obama 52% and McCain 46%. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html They were, and are, THE MOST accurate pollster because they always poll LIKELY voters rather than whoever answers the phone.

Why must democrats continue to pretend (lie) about this issue and insist that Rasmussen is anything but VERY accurate?

[Moi]

PPP will be out on Wed. morning. Will be very bad for Deeds. Maybe not -19% bad, but bad!

[SuzyQ]

When Ken Cuccinelli became the republican candidate for AG I thought Shannon would win easily. I still think that could have happened if Shannon had run even a half decent campaign. The man has been MIA.

Falwell is closing Liberty on election day so that all 4,000 of his students can vote, and work the polls for republicans. Garret will pick off that seat.

Republicans will pick up 8 to 10 seats.

[SuzyQ]

I agree on the PPP poll, it's looking bad for the dems:
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/10/tomorrows-virginia-poll.html

[35th for Keam]

A likely reason Brian W. Schoeneman has not received campaign lit from Keam (from his ZoomInfo profile):
"He currently serves as an At-Large member of the Fairfax County Republican Committee, and was elected as a Delegate to the 2008 Fairfax County Republican Convention, the 2008 8th Congressional District Republican Convention, and the 2008 Virginia State Republican Convention.

He has also consistently voted in Democratic primaries. Real classy, Brian.

Sore loser much?

[Terry Klimek]

My thoughts.

Wil Morefield wins in District 3. We have family in that area, and he is catching fire. Plus, our niece thinks he's a "babe."

In District 44, Jay McConville wins. The Dems simply nominated too partisan a candidate. I'm a Democrat, but have heard that over and over again. A civic activist would have been stronger.

Vickie Vasquez wins in District 45, and Sasha Gong comes up slightly ahead in 46.

Democrats hold Districts 35 and 67. Comstock gets crushed in District 34 (more than 20 points).

[Brian W. Schoeneman]

35th for Keam, sore loser? I don't know where you get that from. I'm a Republican and I'm smart about how I vote. When there's no Republican race, why not cross over and vote in the Democratic primary? Until we get our act together and get party registration, there's nothing wrong crossing over.

If Keam is running a Democratic only outreach that's fine - but he's not going to win that way. And considering I've gotten a robocall a day from Creigh Deeds, I'm still on somebody's list.

Like I said before, other than a few signs on Chain Bridge Road, Keam's campaign in my area has been nonexistent.

[Bruce]

On the Keam race, remember that Shannon is on the ticket and will win here (if nowhere else). I think Keam edges out Hyland because all of Shannon's volunteers statewide will be working in this district.

One other race to put on the radar screen if it turns into a blow out for the GOP: Tim Nank (R) vs. Mark Sickles (D). This Springfield-based district was held by Tom Bolvin (R) when elections were good for the GOP. Many voters here are Presidential-election voters and very transitory (Kingstowne). Sickles is not well known. And Nank has outraised him in each of the past two months and has at least enough to pull the upset with the right atmospherics. Don't put this as SAFE D in a bad year for D's.

[Barbara Munsey]

Miller has some ouches in the press this week:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2009/10/lobbyist_confirmed_for_loudoun.html

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columns/Craziness-behind-Loudoun_s-suburban-facade-8409702.html

Fellow Democrats on the Loudoun BoS voted against his attempt to turn a Chamber of Commerce seat on the health panel into a soundbyte for his campaign, and violating his oath of office to review land use with an open mind in order to kill overdue schools in his own district, and try to get a Dem delegate's relative a commission on a nonpermitted use in the process.

Oops. Ick. Ouch.

Miller is a desperate bid based on presidential stats and nothing more, and Caputo may not hold on either given his actual record.

[Pete in Williamsburg]

- Bobby Mathieson will do fine. He got out in front with his opponent's absences. A good ad that told it without sounding petty. Ron's response has been a letter to the editor by some council members and something about 92% attendance buried in one of his few ads.

- Bouchard-Stolle is the true toss-up. The GOP hates their RINOs but protest votes are a myth. To wit, the PUMA Hilary voters. They love to knock Stolle but he and his brother will win easily.

-When Ben talks about the GOP stacking the deck via redistricting, he's talking about Purkey. That is one safe seat. I'd love to eat my words on this because Purkey needs to go. Schmidt was the right guy to go after it but it's simply drawn red no matter how much money is spent.

-Lyn Lewis, Bob Tata and Paula Miller all have unserious or fringe opponents so they are safe as usual.

[Chris Craig]

"Two Northern Virginia incumbents (Vivian Watts and Kris Amundson) who were targeted for defeat in 2001 after their districts were redrawn hung on in tough races that year" -

thanks for the plug, Ben. If Joe Bury doesn't take out my freind, VW, then maybe it's time to re-appear.

Chris Craig

[R. Parsons]

Where is the 73rd District on this list? Did I miss it?

[asmith]

Pete,

I agree 83rd is a tossup because that GOP leadership PAC dumped 200K+ in the race for Chris. They want the seat bad and Chris thinks he's entitled to that seat. The Robert Dean crowd is worth 2 or 3 points and they hate the Stolles. Joe followed the Ryan McDougle example of a good constituent service program. He's everywhere and that's what may save him in 13 days. The key will be turnout in the SW part of the district, and holding Chris margin in two precincts in the north. Agree with what you said about Bobby.

[SuzyQ]

The Democrats pollster, PPP is out.
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/10/mcdonnell-pulling-away.html All three republican candidates are up by double digits.

Some really interesting stuff in this article, especially negative ratings. Deeds has gone from a +19 to a -7. McDonnell has gone from +19 to +21. Looks like the negative ads on Deeds have worked but not the negative ads on McDonnell.

More surprising to me, Cuccinelli is up by 15! That man KNOWS how to run a campaign!

[edthemanva]

Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli..BOO!
Happy Halloween to all the D's.

[James Young]

SuzyQ notes that "Falwell is closing Liberty on election day so that all 4,000 of his students can vote, and work the polls for republicans. Garret will pick off that seat," implying that it is somehow illegitimate. Is it any more illegitimate than the government schools shutting down on election day so teachers union activists can work the polls for Dems?

[Rejuvenated Dem]

Another prominent Republican endorses Shannon Valetine in the 23rd HoD district. The momentum keeps building, this one is gonna surprise a lot of people on election day. With his hard earned respect in every part of Lynchburg Preston Bryant got 11,000 votes last time he ran. Valentine has also developed that type of respect and a broad based coalition of those who like her transcend partisan politics -

http://www2.newsadvance.com/lna/news/local/article/republican_serving_in_kaines_cabinet_endorses_valentine/20575/

Preston Bryant, who represented Lynchburg for 10 years in the House of Delegates before joining Gov. Timothy M. Kaine’s cabinet, endorsed Del. Shannon Valentine for re-election in his former district Tuesday.

Bryant, who serves as Secretary of Natural Resources, said Valentine “is doing an excellent job in Richmond,” and he sharply criticized her Republican opponent.

“I have been disappointed by the kind of campaign my old friend Scott Garrett has run,” Bryant said, citing Garrett’s claims about Democrat Valentine in brochures he has mailed to voters.

[Terry Klimek]

Bob Tata has, hands down, the most sophisticated Web Site in Virginia politics:

http://www.delegatebobtata.com/

[Joe in Tabb]

James,

While most public school students have Election Day off from instruction, the teachers do not as that day is used for professional development activities or parent-teacher conferences.

[Long time richmonder]

Hamilton will win in 93rd. Abbott given up. Not going to debates and community events. His service and community ties will carry. 6-8 points in good weather.

[Long time richmonder]

VIRGINIA DOES NOT NEED ANOTHER STOLLE. PLEASE VIRGINIA BEACH, SPARE THE COMMONWEALTH!!!

[Ron]

I dont see how Hamilton wins the 93rd. Its a heavily Democratic district and Hamilton is corrupt. He could survive this year under one of those handicaps, but not both.

[A Voter]

Terry, wow... how can you tell when a candidate makes a website all by himself?

[Judith Marie Miller]

Ron:
A candidate wins by one-on-one interaction. For 21 years Hamilton has done that. He stays at local parades, fairs, and forums for hours meeting old and new supporters. He is not scared of a debate. He is very smart. His district sees his hard work when he has no opponent.

There is only one candidate in Eastern Virginia to do NO negative flyers, commercials or ads. Hamilton doesn't need to. He has taught and cared about generations of Peninsula families. They know him. They distrust the press. Abbott is hiding and when she appears - she is mean, uniformed and overmatched.

Hamilton will win. Abbott has given up and knows it too.

[Paul Piccolomini]

The best thing Hamilton has going for him is Steve Shannon. He is an idiot and doesn't know who is opponent is or what the Attorney General does.

Good thing Consumer Litigation Associates has given him a signing bonus os 50,000. No one else will hire him with his personal and legal reputations.

[Not Michael Jackson]

@Joe in Tabb

The reason schools have off on election day is that many cite tons of strangers coming in to schools and using the school facilities as possible dangers to the children or as immense disruptions in the school day or as compromising election integrity (imagine 1000 elementary school kids milling around for lunch in their cafeteria where the voting booths are). So they take the day off and let the election take place.

Concurrently, why not improve your work force when you have an empty day you are paying them for?

[Bwana]

Ben-

Any changes in your picks with the latest polls?