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Salem Republicans

Having a hard time finding much in there I disagree with. Here is one Roanoke Valley R's take on the 17th.

http://roanokevalleyrepublicans.blogspot.com/2009/10/house-of-delegates-preview-17th.html

Dirty Deeds, and They're Done Dirt Cheap

What about the 6th District race between Carole Pratt and Annie Crockett-Stark?

Not Larry Sabato

Safe Republican hold.

Brian W. Schoeneman

"But Keam has absolutely outworked and outsmarted Hyland..."

How? Exactly what has Keam been doing in terms of outworking Hyland? I haven't seen a single Keam yard sign not on public property - I have seen plenty of Hylands just driving around Vienna. I haven't gotten a piece of mail, a door knock or even a robocall from Keam. If I wasn't paying attention to this race because it's my district, I would have no idea who Mark Keam is. Unless he is strictly working inside Democratic constituencies, I haven't seen any evidence that he's working at all.

Brian W. Schoeneman

Also, good to see this finally out. :) I can see why it took so long.

Not Bentard

I laughed when I read your write-up on the 35th, and I have no choice but to agree with Brian W. Schoeneman.

There are two Three Dem houses in my neighborhood that have Hyland yard signs. This might be down to the wire, with Jim crossing the finish line first.

You should reconsider the 35th as a toss-up, as all of us rank-and-file Dems are doing here in Oakton and Oak Marr.

notsophialoren

Wow, good anaylsis. Whether you agree or disagree a lot to think about. DEms need to keep working hard.

Not Jimmy Carter

Comstock wins.

B

BREAKING!! Bob Opens up 19 point lead over Deeds. Insult to Injury! http://www.wdbj7.com/Global/story.asp?S=11347520

SE VA MWC Alum

91st is actually not Poquoson based-its 50% Hampton, closer than this analysis sand approximately 25% each Poquoson & York. Its also closer than Ben suggests. Helsel wins Poquoson big, and Hpt is quite close. Gear will win comfortably in York as the anti-Gear vote is split. (Eure is from York). This should be a slight lean R.

Gosport.Conservative

Matthew James is no lock in the 80th, polling has that as a small single digit lead, James has done no groundwork, phone calls or door knocking. Strong ticket presence may tip this over. District is leans Democratic, not a lock.

Not Michael Jackson

I'd only make one change and thats drop Tom Gear's race to a toss-up considering his staff are halfwits and probably would get the election wrong if the party didn't remind them. I mean COME ON! has anyone seen tom gear's lit?

JoAnn

What about Delegate Sam Nixon? Is he safe?

change

Ben,

Great analysis.

First, McDonnell will not win by over 10 points but I agree it looks pretty good for republicans.
I think things get better as democrats in Washington continue to abuse their power and lead our country further into the abyss of spending/borrowing and cronyism.
Just as the republicans made their mistakes on spending the democrats have done the same on steroids. Citizens are losing jobs and looking at tax increases and debt as far as the eye can see.
The “not so transparent” manner in the current health care debate only adds fuel to the fire.

All of this (not to mention gitmo, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, N.K.) has a major effect on voters in VA particularly in NOVA.
I hope these elections in VA will give pause to some of these abusers and they will reconsider their actions.

Frankly, I could care less if there is a R or D after someone’s name. I hope they begin to realize that we need to be conservative in our government, we can not be “all things to all people”.
Hopefully VA will lead the way to a renewed understanding of America’s values. Not only should the democrats take notice, but also liberal republicans, as we move to 2010 and 2011 elections.

I assume that Sam/Dan/Doug/DCC etc. will be very unhappy with your opinions.

Not Ben Tribbett

If Will Morefield defeats Dan Bowling, Morefield will be the youngest member of the House of Delegates. Morefield will be 26 years old. The Democrats did file an opponent against James Edmunds in the 60th District, but David Guill (D) withdrew from the race.

Ghost of RWR

Ben, you need to revise. The GOP is headed for a blowout. As you can see from this USA Survey poll released today, http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=83ab7b50-6f0f-4257-9c76-c8d22c795ab6 this will rip the guts out of the Democrat's GOTV effort.

Moreover, you could not be more wrong on Bobby Mathieson vs. Ron Villanueva calling it a toss up. Bobby is headed for s big defeat.

Also Jim Hyland will win in this environment, for sure. So will Lopez in the 52nd. Hamilton is headed for victory too.

November 3rd will be the biggest bloodletting in the House of Delegates the Democrats have seen since 2001.

Message to Minority Leader Ward Armstrong: focus on your law practice. It’s going to be a long decade.

Barbara Munsey

Pretty comprehensive, and overall fascinating.

Hope your leg is better, BTW!

Have to disagree that Miller is a "strong candidate" in the 86th.

Most of his resume is of the shoulda woulda oughta variety.

I live in his Loudoun magisterial district, and he held the office for one year before renting a house in the only precinct that would let him try this.

He spent the first year whining about the low pay and the hard work, then did an about face for grandstanding purposes the week before he moved to run.

His "sign ordinance" won't be available for review until after the election, let alone publicly heard or passed.

His business address is the house he moved out of in Ashburn to run in Sterling.

He voted against schools in his own district, and has a habit of cronyism.

Not too good on such a short resume.

The out-of-state union money is buying him a lot of ads, but most have been the lie about Rust "voting against" autism.

I don't think Miller is anywhere near as shiny as you're painting him.

Sam

Contrary to change's assertions, I actually agree with all of Ben's analysis, except I think Danny Marshall's even safer than Ben does...

Brian, depends on what part of the 35th you visit. There are swaths of Vienna where you find dozens of Keam signs on non-public property without a sign of a Hyland sign anywhere. I think Ben has it right. Slight-lean Keam, but only slight.

Ron

Ghost of RWR, there is no way that Hyland will win "for sure". Him winning would be a pretty big upset. Deeds got 58% in that district in 2005 even as he was losing statewide. He will carry that district and carry Keam with him.

One who knows better

If you lived in Loudoun you would know how wrong you are about Stevens Miller. If the Dems had chosen almost anyone else this seat would lead Dem.

Not only is Miller not popular with the GOP, most Dems think he is a total ASS. And he is.

Yes he won his Supervisor seat, but that was a vote against a very un-popular incumbent. He would not win his seat if he ran today.

Miller is a jerk, and a strange one at that.

CarolineProgressive

A couple of things about that SurveyUSA poll floating around in the comments seem weird. 61% of 18-34 year olds support McDonnell? Also McDonnell gets 31% of African-Americans? Listen, I know we're down, but this poll is garbage.

SurveyUSA, like Rasmussen, is a really good "trend" pollster but not a good "actual results" pollster. Of course, that doesn't make up for the fact that the trend isn't getting any better.

Rejuvenated Dem

The 23rd HoD should be lean or slight-lean Democratic. Valentine has a ton of cash for the final push, her support growing daily with each new outrageous lie by the Garrett campaign. She has the active support of many moderates and quite a few Republicans. Her ground game is the strongest in Lynchburg history, every Democrat from every campaign of the past has joined her historic effort.

Jerry Falwell Jr has stated he not as concerned about this race but wants to make sure their presence is known during City Council elections in May 2010. He has yet to make a statement of support for Garrett. This is seen by some as tacit acceptance of Valentine's effective leadership in the House of Delegates.

asmith


Pretty good analysis Ben.

The right wing types in VB don't like the Stolle's very much and I bet many of them will vote McDonnell/Bolling/Cuccinelli and then go home if they live in the 83rd district. That could be enough to derail Chris Stolle and his Washington money again.

Having said that there's enough oceanfront/Shore drive Republicans that Ken Stolle will be elected sheriff without a problem.

If Bouchard was the incumbent in the 82nd or the 85th against Stolle where McDonnell has major pull he'd be done. You need to walk that district and realize how many people rembember Joe when he was CO of Naval Station Norfolk and like him.

I think Bobby is in good shape though it will be close. Ron was a good candidate on paper but isn't turning heads in this low turnout district.

The GOP will still have a good day on balance. As Tucker Martin says, the GOP has been beaten in this state in every race in the last few years from prom queen to President

Young Repubulican

What about Purkey in the 82nd and Jennifer Lee in the 80th?

anon

There's a reason why McCain won Buchanan County, and it's not coal. It does have to do with the color black, though. Care to guess?

Richmond Republican

I don't think you should completely dismiss Ernesto Sampson's chance for a strong showing in the 69th. He has a serious presence in the district and is running a strong grassroots campaign. Betsy Carr on the other hand, has sat back and done little since her narrow primary victory. She only belatedly began campaigning after she realized the seat was not going to be handed to her on a silver platter. She'll might win this purely based on the district's demographics, but her complacency and Ernesto's energy and focus might give Richmond Democrats heartburn on election night. The Times-Dispatch has also picked up on the potential for an upset here.

http://www2.timesdispatch.com/rtd/news/state_regional/state_regional_govtpolitics/article/DELS04_20091003-222407/297345/

The 69th district race should be likely Democrat, not Safe Democrat

Not Steve Shannon

LeMunyon has been on the air in the 67th with that cruise ship ad for a week -- unanswered by Caputo, who is low on cash. This one leans R.

James Young

Lyn Lewis in the 100th is about as conservative a Democrat as you'll find in Virginia, and a personal friend from college. He almost makes it respectable to vote Democrat.

DCCyclone

Nice job, Ben. Your is the pessimistic end of the Democratic spectrum, combining your detailed analysis with your overall statement earlier that we could be anywhere from minus-1 to minus-11 depending on turnout and coattails.

New Dominion Project is the optimistic end of the spectrum, I think they're drinking quite a bit of Kool-Aid over there and I said so on some of their out-of-touch picks. But I hope after the election to be apologizing to them for saying that and bringing the hammer down on you! :-)

DCCyclone

I'll add that in the 34th, my district where I've been active, I get the sense Vanderhye has the edge. Dovetailing with Ben's point on some Dems needing a crossover vote, I've stated before here and elsewhere that Margi Vanderhye DEFINITELY has crossover votes, and Comstock does NOT. So Comstock needs more straight Rs to show up than straight Ds to offset that. I'm doubtful that the straight R turnout advantage will be enough in this district to make up the difference.

I also know Vanderhye, unlike Deeds, has run a technically sound
campaign for a very long time. I was canvassing for her in Chesterbrook precinct back in MAY, pre-primary, when her campaign manager contacte me in response to my online volunteer sign-up. They've been very aggressive courting and enlisting volunteers the whole way, and have spent money, too, when needed on field efforts. Margi herself is hard-working. And the media on her end has been a mix of positive and contrast messaging, while all the Comstock stuff I've seen on TV has been all attack all the time, with nothing to say about herself. The ads are practically the mirror image of Deeds-McDonnell, with Vanderhye's messaging like McDonnell's and Comstock following the Deeds model.

change

Sam,
I see from your recent posts you have resigned yourself to the fact that VA voters are seeing through the democrats BS and moving towards a sweep in this election.
No matter how you try to frame it, the dem’s, and Obambi/Reid/Pelosi in particular, have done in months what the republicans took years to do; namely, alienate the independents.
They have shown the public what they are really all about; and Americans are not buying the bill of goods they are selling.
Further, the democrats have compounded their problems with extreme arrogance and disregard for public opinion.
It is Good to see that the blue pills are wearing off, keep moving towards the light; it will be good for you and our posterity.

change

DCC,
Since you seem to have also resigned yourself to the republican sweep, would you care to enlighten us on your opinion on this potential phenomena?

As I am sure you have read, I believe it to be a complete abandonment of independents who believed in some real “change”; and are now not only disappointed, but extremely embarrassed because they were led astray by kind lies.

Jimmy

Hyland will win, barely. The reason being is that he received 45,000$ from the speaker a couple of days ago. With that boost of money, Hyland will now be able to aggressively campaign in the last two weeks.

Max Shapiro

90th and 100th are going to be way, way, way closer than you thought

turd

What about O'Bannon vs. Shields?

Moi

CarolineProgressive - SurveyUSA, like Rasmussen, is a really good "trend" pollster but not a good "actual results" pollster

Ummmm.... No. Do your homework. Survey USA was the most accurate poll in 2008 for Virginia. They called the race Obama 50 / McCain 46 in their final poll and "actual results" were Obama 52 / McCain 46.

Oh, yeah. In the 52nd, there's $150K being dumped on Torian by Lopez in the final two weeks here. Say goodbye to that potential pick-up as well.

SuzyQ

Ben,
Shame on you for repeating that lie about Tag Greason when you know, like everyone else, that all the charges were dropped, and that woman was serial accuser. She even accused her CO's wife of something, along with the CO, and 6 other people during her brief career in the army!

Tag is a fine man, and hard worker. He'll win because he deserves to win, and because he will be a wonderful, hard working, delegate for his district.

Rust will also win, easily. Everyone agrees that Stevens Miller is a weirdo who is ready to leave the job he's only had for a year and happy to cheat to do it, by renting a house in only the district that will have him.

LeMunyon will also win easily. Caputo has done nothing for the district. LeMunyon has knocked on 10,000 doors and listened to the people of his district. He'll be an awesome delegate.

While I'd love to see Jerry Hyland win, that's just wishful thinking. It will be a total shock if he pulls it out.

VALoneRanger

SuzyQ, I take it you mean Jim Hyland? Gerry Hyland isn't up for re-election this year.

TheNation

The Dems still control the Senate and should Cooch win (although, my "gut" tells me that Shannon may pull it out), the Dems should be able to pick up that seat adding to our majority in the General Assembly's upper chamber. My prediction is that should the HoD remain GOP and the Senate remain Dem, the "incumbent protection" program will probably kick in. As such there will be an unwritten agreement between the two parties regarding the partisan configuration of the HoD and the Senate.

As for the Congressionals...well, that's where the "fit will hit the shan."

SuzyQ

Barbara Comstock will win because she has campaigned more, is more visible, and because NO republican is going to cross over after those who did last year have been totally burned by Obama. It's a republican district, Barbara will win.

Yes, I mean JIM Hyland. I am surprised by the optimism here for his campaign. Perhaps I will be pleasantly surprised on election even.

I thought PPP was releasing a poll today? Were the results so bad that they decided to bury them?

SuzyQ

CarolineProgressive,
Why do liberals continue to say that Rasmussen is not accurate in their polling. In 2008 they were dead on with Obama 52% and McCain 46%. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html They were, and are, THE MOST accurate pollster because they always poll LIKELY voters rather than whoever answers the phone.

Why must democrats continue to pretend (lie) about this issue and insist that Rasmussen is anything but VERY accurate?

Moi

PPP will be out on Wed. morning. Will be very bad for Deeds. Maybe not -19% bad, but bad!

SuzyQ

When Ken Cuccinelli became the republican candidate for AG I thought Shannon would win easily. I still think that could have happened if Shannon had run even a half decent campaign. The man has been MIA.

Falwell is closing Liberty on election day so that all 4,000 of his students can vote, and work the polls for republicans. Garret will pick off that seat.

Republicans will pick up 8 to 10 seats.

SuzyQ

I agree on the PPP poll, it's looking bad for the dems:
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/10/tomorrows-virginia-poll.html

35th for Keam

A likely reason Brian W. Schoeneman has not received campaign lit from Keam (from his ZoomInfo profile):
"He currently serves as an At-Large member of the Fairfax County Republican Committee, and was elected as a Delegate to the 2008 Fairfax County Republican Convention, the 2008 8th Congressional District Republican Convention, and the 2008 Virginia State Republican Convention.

He has also consistently voted in Democratic primaries. Real classy, Brian.

Sore loser much?

Terry Klimek

My thoughts.

Wil Morefield wins in District 3. We have family in that area, and he is catching fire. Plus, our niece thinks he's a "babe."

In District 44, Jay McConville wins. The Dems simply nominated too partisan a candidate. I'm a Democrat, but have heard that over and over again. A civic activist would have been stronger.

Vickie Vasquez wins in District 45, and Sasha Gong comes up slightly ahead in 46.

Democrats hold Districts 35 and 67. Comstock gets crushed in District 34 (more than 20 points).

Brian W. Schoeneman

35th for Keam, sore loser? I don't know where you get that from. I'm a Republican and I'm smart about how I vote. When there's no Republican race, why not cross over and vote in the Democratic primary? Until we get our act together and get party registration, there's nothing wrong crossing over.

If Keam is running a Democratic only outreach that's fine - but he's not going to win that way. And considering I've gotten a robocall a day from Creigh Deeds, I'm still on somebody's list.

Like I said before, other than a few signs on Chain Bridge Road, Keam's campaign in my area has been nonexistent.

Bruce

On the Keam race, remember that Shannon is on the ticket and will win here (if nowhere else). I think Keam edges out Hyland because all of Shannon's volunteers statewide will be working in this district.

One other race to put on the radar screen if it turns into a blow out for the GOP: Tim Nank (R) vs. Mark Sickles (D). This Springfield-based district was held by Tom Bolvin (R) when elections were good for the GOP. Many voters here are Presidential-election voters and very transitory (Kingstowne). Sickles is not well known. And Nank has outraised him in each of the past two months and has at least enough to pull the upset with the right atmospherics. Don't put this as SAFE D in a bad year for D's.

Barbara Munsey

Miller has some ouches in the press this week:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2009/10/lobbyist_confirmed_for_loudoun.html

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columns/Craziness-behind-Loudoun_s-suburban-facade-8409702.html

Fellow Democrats on the Loudoun BoS voted against his attempt to turn a Chamber of Commerce seat on the health panel into a soundbyte for his campaign, and violating his oath of office to review land use with an open mind in order to kill overdue schools in his own district, and try to get a Dem delegate's relative a commission on a nonpermitted use in the process.

Oops. Ick. Ouch.

Miller is a desperate bid based on presidential stats and nothing more, and Caputo may not hold on either given his actual record.

Pete in Williamsburg

- Bobby Mathieson will do fine. He got out in front with his opponent's absences. A good ad that told it without sounding petty. Ron's response has been a letter to the editor by some council members and something about 92% attendance buried in one of his few ads.

- Bouchard-Stolle is the true toss-up. The GOP hates their RINOs but protest votes are a myth. To wit, the PUMA Hilary voters. They love to knock Stolle but he and his brother will win easily.

-When Ben talks about the GOP stacking the deck via redistricting, he's talking about Purkey. That is one safe seat. I'd love to eat my words on this because Purkey needs to go. Schmidt was the right guy to go after it but it's simply drawn red no matter how much money is spent.

-Lyn Lewis, Bob Tata and Paula Miller all have unserious or fringe opponents so they are safe as usual.

Chris Craig

"Two Northern Virginia incumbents (Vivian Watts and Kris Amundson) who were targeted for defeat in 2001 after their districts were redrawn hung on in tough races that year" -

thanks for the plug, Ben. If Joe Bury doesn't take out my freind, VW, then maybe it's time to re-appear.

Chris Craig

R. Parsons

Where is the 73rd District on this list? Did I miss it?

asmith

Pete,

I agree 83rd is a tossup because that GOP leadership PAC dumped 200K+ in the race for Chris. They want the seat bad and Chris thinks he's entitled to that seat. The Robert Dean crowd is worth 2 or 3 points and they hate the Stolles. Joe followed the Ryan McDougle example of a good constituent service program. He's everywhere and that's what may save him in 13 days. The key will be turnout in the SW part of the district, and holding Chris margin in two precincts in the north. Agree with what you said about Bobby.

SuzyQ

The Democrats pollster, PPP is out.
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/10/mcdonnell-pulling-away.html All three republican candidates are up by double digits.

Some really interesting stuff in this article, especially negative ratings. Deeds has gone from a +19 to a -7. McDonnell has gone from +19 to +21. Looks like the negative ads on Deeds have worked but not the negative ads on McDonnell.

More surprising to me, Cuccinelli is up by 15! That man KNOWS how to run a campaign!

edthemanva

Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli..BOO!
Happy Halloween to all the D's.

James Young

SuzyQ notes that "Falwell is closing Liberty on election day so that all 4,000 of his students can vote, and work the polls for republicans. Garret will pick off that seat," implying that it is somehow illegitimate. Is it any more illegitimate than the government schools shutting down on election day so teachers union activists can work the polls for Dems?

Rejuvenated Dem

Another prominent Republican endorses Shannon Valetine in the 23rd HoD district. The momentum keeps building, this one is gonna surprise a lot of people on election day. With his hard earned respect in every part of Lynchburg Preston Bryant got 11,000 votes last time he ran. Valentine has also developed that type of respect and a broad based coalition of those who like her transcend partisan politics -

http://www2.newsadvance.com/lna/news/local/article/republican_serving_in_kaines_cabinet_endorses_valentine/20575/

Preston Bryant, who represented Lynchburg for 10 years in the House of Delegates before joining Gov. Timothy M. Kaine’s cabinet, endorsed Del. Shannon Valentine for re-election in his former district Tuesday.

Bryant, who serves as Secretary of Natural Resources, said Valentine “is doing an excellent job in Richmond,” and he sharply criticized her Republican opponent.

“I have been disappointed by the kind of campaign my old friend Scott Garrett has run,” Bryant said, citing Garrett’s claims about Democrat Valentine in brochures he has mailed to voters.

Terry Klimek

Bob Tata has, hands down, the most sophisticated Web Site in Virginia politics:

http://www.delegatebobtata.com/

Joe in Tabb

James,

While most public school students have Election Day off from instruction, the teachers do not as that day is used for professional development activities or parent-teacher conferences.

Long time richmonder

Hamilton will win in 93rd. Abbott given up. Not going to debates and community events. His service and community ties will carry. 6-8 points in good weather.

Long time richmonder

VIRGINIA DOES NOT NEED ANOTHER STOLLE. PLEASE VIRGINIA BEACH, SPARE THE COMMONWEALTH!!!

Ron

I dont see how Hamilton wins the 93rd. Its a heavily Democratic district and Hamilton is corrupt. He could survive this year under one of those handicaps, but not both.

A Voter

Terry, wow... how can you tell when a candidate makes a website all by himself?

Judith Marie Miller

Ron:
A candidate wins by one-on-one interaction. For 21 years Hamilton has done that. He stays at local parades, fairs, and forums for hours meeting old and new supporters. He is not scared of a debate. He is very smart. His district sees his hard work when he has no opponent.

There is only one candidate in Eastern Virginia to do NO negative flyers, commercials or ads. Hamilton doesn't need to. He has taught and cared about generations of Peninsula families. They know him. They distrust the press. Abbott is hiding and when she appears - she is mean, uniformed and overmatched.

Hamilton will win. Abbott has given up and knows it too.

Paul Piccolomini

The best thing Hamilton has going for him is Steve Shannon. He is an idiot and doesn't know who is opponent is or what the Attorney General does.

Good thing Consumer Litigation Associates has given him a signing bonus os 50,000. No one else will hire him with his personal and legal reputations.

Not Michael Jackson

@Joe in Tabb

The reason schools have off on election day is that many cite tons of strangers coming in to schools and using the school facilities as possible dangers to the children or as immense disruptions in the school day or as compromising election integrity (imagine 1000 elementary school kids milling around for lunch in their cafeteria where the voting booths are). So they take the day off and let the election take place.

Concurrently, why not improve your work force when you have an empty day you are paying them for?

Bwana

Ben-

Any changes in your picks with the latest polls?

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