The Statewide Ticket

Governor

Outlook:  Likely Republican (Pickup)

There's hundreds of things that could be second guessed about the Democratic effort this year, but they all miss the big picture.  95% of the Governor's job is non-partisan, and has zero ideology behind it.  It involves managing tens of thousands of state employees, setting clear goals and motivating people to work together to achieve them.  The best part of these off year campaigns in Virginia is the national attention we get- because the bright lights of DC really separate the pretenders from the contenders.  And to put it bluntly- Creigh Deeds is an absolute pretender.  He's a super nice guy who can't even manage a campaign that is spending tens of millions of dollars.  How would be ever manage a budget of tens of BILLIONS of dollars?  He is clearly completely lost with zero vision for what needs to happen to win this election.  His campaign will go down in history as the turning point for Republicans in Virginia- after a brutal decade of losses- and he has turned Bob McDonnell from a random state Delegate into an Attorney General, and now into a Governor- who in a few weeks will immediately shoot into the top ten potential Republican Presidential candidates in 2012 or 2016.  But I'm not angry with Creigh- anyone can run for office- it is the responsibility of the primary electorate to nominate people who are capable of doing the job they are running for.  This years failure to do so will have far-reaching impacts for many years to come. 

Even though I disagree with Bob on the 5% of policy that will involve any ideology, I hope he can manage Virginia as well as he managed this campaign.

Lt. Governor

Outlook:  Leans Republican

If the election were held today, Bill Bolling would be the leading Republican vote getter on the ticket this year.  However, I think this race provides the most danger for the GOP heading into the final weeks.  As McDonnell's victory becomes apparent, many Independents will look for balance in the state government.  Every Republican Governor who has ever been elected in Virginia has seen their LG candidate seriously under-perform them as voters look for "balance" late in the campaign.  If Jody Wagner can persuade voters that she is that balance over the next three weeks, this will be the closest election this year.  Bolling has not used his incumbency very effectively, and seems to be willing to ride the McDonnell wave.  But can Jody take advantage?

Attorney General

Outlook:  Leans Republican

Much like the Governor, 95% of the Attorney General's job is non-partisan management, just on a much smaller scale with a few hundred state employees to manage.  Since neither candidate has any specific experience that speaks to that role, it has been up to the campaign to indicate who is ready for this job.  And Ken Cuccinelli has dominated since he was nominated in June in every aspect of this campaign.  I know most of the people who were around to help launch Steve Shannon's political career in 2003- and I called seven of them this week from Providence District where Steve lives.  None of them have heard a word from Steve in MONTHS- he literally does not even have his own core base of supporters helping to introduce him around the rest of Northern Virginia.  Again, this is a core management issue- Steve clearly fails to understand that his campaign has to be bigger than whatever he has personally scheduled that day.  The recent debate showed he hadn't even done the basic research into the office of Attorney General.  His only remaining hope is that Cooch scares the public on the 5% of the job that requires ideology.  Otherwise this election is over- although I am open to giving Steve the next four years to prepare himself better and run again in 2013.

I'll have my House of Delegates analysis up soon.

Comments

[Martin Lomasney]

The failure of the Democratic gubernatorial campaign this year lies at the feet of the WaPo whose endorsement swung a close primary to a weak, uninformed, unprepared candidate from the second smallest locality in the state in the least urbanized part of the state.

Thanks, Fred Hiatt! Were you secretly in the tank for McDonnell and picking the one D sure to be a punching bag for Taliban Bob?

And we'll lose Margi & 8-10 other incumbent D delegates in the bargain!

Thanks Fred, you complete putz!

[CarolineProgressive]

You had said on Twitter that the first AG TV ad you saw was Ken's. Just wanted to let you know that in metro Richmond, Steve has been running ads for weeks, and they seem quite good (much better than Ken's where it looks like he blinks maybe two times in 30 seconds).

[Not John McCain]

So who is the top of the ticket for '13? Bolling or Cooch?

[Chris]

Bolling, because I believe Cooch runs for Senate against Webb.

Repub:
Bolling for Gov
O'Brien for LG
Obenshain for AG

I think Gerry Connolly will run for governor in 2013, its harmless because he doesn't have to quick his Senate seat. Chap clearly has ambitions statewide and if he can get reelected (he should), but him an Connolly don't like each very much. But having someone from NOVA on the ticket that has serious electoral success might be the lessons Dems need to take from this election.

[kelley in virginia]

what is sad about this gubernatorial election is that Creigh Deeds, from a rural county, is tainting the future of rural politicians that run for statewide office.

[HisRoc]

Martin Lomasney,

The WaPo swung "a close primary?" To quote Barney Fwank, what planet do you spend most of your time on?

Deeds beat both T-Mac and Moran by 2-1 margins. If you think that a newspaper endorsement can swing those kinds of votes, I suggest that you start your own paper and rule the world.

Deeds beat a northern Virginia liberal with no downstate appeal and a New York carpetbagger in the primary. Since then he has run an abysmal campaign that has alienated both Independents and blue dog Democrats alike. End of story.

[Gretchen Laskas]

I agree with Kelley that should Deeds not pull out a win (or at least a very very close finish) it will make it harder to convince Northern Virginians to take a chance on a rural candidate in upcoming elections.

And I've been pretty hard on the Deeds campaign (WHERE IS MY BIO AD??) but I split from Ben's opinion that McDonnell has run a good campaign. I've been vocal that I've felt that some of the only reasons Deeds has held his own was McDonnell's inability to make real headway with the larger electorate.

[Anon]

I am no longer confident that ANY rural Democrat can win statewide, unless George W. Bush is in the White House again.

Deeds had to move left to win the nomination. Bob had months to move to the center b/c he had no opposition for the primary.

Meanwhile, the President and Congress are on a tear to set records for the most liberal government in American history, during an atrocious economy, and independents are scared shitless. C'mon - there aren't enough votes for the public option or climate right now yet that's all the news, all the time from you guys.

Seriously, folks, get out of that bubble. You have the first statewide candidate in history who has the cojones to do something about NOVA transportation and you're bitching about it?

Deeds' willingness to consider new revenues for transportation is hurting him downstate and you sorry whiners in NOVA are crying about it? That was an act of honesty and political courage.

Deeds is the real deal. He is not the plastic Ken doll that McDonnell is, but thanks for that.

If you don't get off your ass, you'll get McDonnell. And it's been said many times, the voters usually get what they ask for.

[kelley in virginia]

the one who has run the most disciplined campaign is KC. i am amazed. he must have an awesome campaign manager.

[DanielK]

Once again, Ben is using shit from BVBL.....Pitiful!

Anyways, who are going to be the candidate's for Ken's senate seat? Thoughts??

[SuzyQ]

Lots of people are running for Ken's seat, Mike Thompson, Steve Hunt, Kathy Smith, among others.

[Chris]

Don't overlook the importance of Cuccinelli being on this ticket, and its something I think even McDonnell missed at first. While Deeds had to move left to win the primary, for the general McDonnell could move to the center because Cuccinelli was going get the base out, so McDonnell didn't have to do any sort of pandering that might now go over well in NOVA.

[Not Larry Sabato]

SuzyQ- Kathy Smith is not running. There is only one Democratic candidate.

[Edthemanva]

just saw the.."I think I made myself clear..YOUNG LADY" ad.. primetime during the night news.. ouch

[Anon]

Who's the Democrat that's running if the Cooch wins?

[Not Michael Jackson]

@kelley

and awesome staffers throughout

[SuzyQ]

Janet "if I only had a brain" Oleszek?

Republicans will be THRILLED if she's the democrat candidate.

[SuzyQ]

When are you going to post your delgate predictions? Is it true that Greason is beating Poisson?

We know Comstock will win, and Rust. Which other republicans?

[SouthsideCentral]

Surprisingly, I mostly agree with Tribbett's analysis here.

The only thing that I disagree on is that I think Bolling will win and win big over Wagner.

[SuzyQ]

Has Wagner campaigned at all? Three people in the last week have asked me if Bolling has an opponent. I don't recall ever seeing a sign for her or hearing and ad. So, yeah, I have to agree with Southside Central, Bolling's going to win big.

[Not John S. Mosby]

Greason isn't anywhere close to Poisson, Comstock is behind, Rust/Miller is still effectively tied.

[VA Blogger]

Not John, are you just basing that on your fondest wishes?

[Martin Lomasney]

HisRoc if you had a clue you'd know to get out of the way of the train that's running the D's over.

Moran, Terry & Clueless were neck & neck before the WaPo endorsement. Clueless got 51% in the primary. Look both facts up before shooting your foot off with misinformation.

[Martin Lomasney]

Anon

Neither candidate had a credible road plan. Its a $100 billion problem and together they weren't raising $1 billion.

[Michael]

Guys and Gals,

First off today I was laughed at because I think a guy should surprise a lady with flowers, the lady told me that was archaic and unmanly. Now for the races, On the Governor's race I think this race is pretty well over. Deeds while I think could have done a GREAT job as Governor and has the ability to do so, reminds me a lot of Buddy MCKay down in Florida. Someone who could do the job but could not sell stink to crap. Deeds has ran a awful campaign and the more people see of him I think they get turned off by him. I think the only question at this point short of MCDonnell getting caught wearing women's lingerie or doing it with a farm animal the only question is not will he win but by how much witll Bob MCDonnell win this year.

Lt. Governor- I think this race was done from day one. Nothing Jody Wagner can do or say will save her sinking campaign. While she is capable, her campaign has been non existent and a lot of that has had to do with the DNC pretty well writing her off early. Boling wins HUGE

AG- this was the race I was hoping Steve Shannon would win, I still do. I think of the 2 he is the better qualified candidate however, like Deeds he has ran a awful campaign. If anyone one is going to balance a ticket out it will be this race. Remember 2001 when Warner won, Kilgore won by a huge 61% of the vote for AG his race pretty well was decided from day one.

I think the question is will Democrats learn from 2009. My answer is yes. I look for Deeds to fade into obscurity and for a civil war to break out with the REpublicans in '13.

[Commonwealth of Virginia]

Local student group gets involved in the issues surrounding the upcoming Virginia elections.

John Tyler Community College (JTCC) is instrumental in improving and sustaining the quality of life here in Chester, VA. This fall, some local JTCC students have come together based upon their concern for the future and partnered with local citizens to create an expert panel discussion for the upcoming elections. They want to see more folks, particularly within their age group, become more involved in the voting process. Declare Yourself, the JTCC version, has an exciting opportunity to review these issues by offering these experts from across the Commonwealth.
 Bill Murray, Dominion Resources
 George Landrith, President, Frontiers of Freedom, adjunct GMU law professor
 Larry Pratt, President, Gun Owners of America
 Jeff Horgan, Americans for Fair Taxation
 Kail Padgitt, The Tax Foundation

On Monday October 12th at 6:30PM, join Declare Yourself and come participate in a forum to be held on the JTCC Chester campus in the Nicholas Center Room N102B.

Some highlights of the topics that will be covered by the experts include:
 Economy and Job Creation;
 Taxes and Government Spending;
 Balance between Federal and State Powers;
 Energy Independence and
 2nd Amendment: Protection of Gun Rights

There will be an opportunity for you to participate and ask questions.

Invite your friends, family, neighbors, and co-workers to support these students and this free, non-partisan event. This event is co-sponsored by a group of local concerned citizens in Chester.

For more information, please contact Dr. Julie Ranson, DY-JTCC student sponsor at 594-1492.

[Chris]

Michael, what Civil War? Bolling will be the nominee, no question about that.

As for Ken's seat, any serious Democrat will wait until 2011 so they can have a full campaign and not have to deal with the R momentum should we end up sweeping. The two candidates I know of on the R side were Steve Hunt and Shak Hill, and Hill just sent an email out saying he won't be running. So its Hunt and Oleszek as far I know . . . and if Janet couldn't been Ken in the toxic 07 enviroment, she won't be Steve Hunt in 09

[Va Blogger]

Chris, there are three other Republicans in the race, and I doubt Steve Hunt would beat any of them.

There is also a massive question as to whether Bolling will be the nominee.

[James Young]

A couple of disagreements, both minor:

(1) McDonnell "will immediately shoot into the top ten potential Republican Presidential candidates in 2012 or 2016"?!?! Don't think so. It's almost impossible to go from one term in the Virginia Governor's mansion to the White House. Bob is a good guy --- he's impressed me a lot, as someone who supported his opponent for the GOP nomination in 2005 --- but I don't think he can change this iron law of Virginia politics.

(2) "I think this race provides the most danger for the GOP heading into the final weeks." Maybe, but then again, no Republican Governor has ever had an incumbent LG running for reelection. You may yet be proven right ... but Jody Wagner is such a joke that I think you're wrong.

[Unity]

The following conversation is not real. The following conversation between Phillip Kellam and a commercial property owner in Virginia Beach took place in an alternate universe:

PK - Hi, it's Phil Kellam, how are you?

CPO - Great, Phil. Well, it's reelection time for the VB Commissioner of the Revenue, so I guess you're calling to ask if you can put up your 4x8s on my properties.

PK - And you know I always appreciate it. But, this year, just like in 2005, I don't have an opponent, so I'd like to ask you to put up Deeds signs instead. Y'know, I had about 25 4x8s all over VB in 2005 and if I'd just used one of those sign locations for our statewide ticket, maybe Creigh would have won the AG race.

CPO - Well, that's awfully selfless of you, Phil. I'm usually only a supporter of your non-partisan election, but if you're making such a strong request, I'll say yes and you can tell Deeds to put up a 4x8.

PK - Thanks!

[not john mcain]

what is the Demo ticket for '13? And dont tell me Chap! If its going to be a retread it at least has to be a retread that has won the nomination!

[I.Publius]

I'm saddened that Creigh has no chance, but the GOP sweep will be a fine consolation. Bob's a good guy.

As for this statement from Virginia voters -- What a ringing endorsement of Warner-Kaine-Obama!

ROFLMAO!

[Mags]

Tis a shame that the ads being run by Jody are so pathetic and juvenile. She's a smart lady who is being ill-advised by her advisors. But they are her advisors. I could care less how many meetings Bolling has missed. The latest video ad needs to be put in the trash can....'Bill Bolling is full of....it!' Puhleese! Jody needed (at this point in the race, she's lost, as has Creigh Deeds) to focus on her ability to make things happen and not the negatives. When will these advisors learn not to humiliate the voters with these petty cheap shots.

[Edthemanva]

Mason Dixon Poll
McDonnell 48
Deeds 40

Bolling 44
Wagner 31
Undecided 25

Cuccinelli 37
Shannon 30
Undecided 33

Pollster Brad Coker said the race for attorney general has the potential to become competitive because 33 percent of likely voters indicated they are undecided and neither candidate is that well known.

He said it will be "difficult" for Wagner to cut into Bolling's lead given his popularity and "the current political climate."

Bolling is tied with Wagner in northern Virginia and leads the former state finance secretary from Virginia Beach in every other Virginia region, including Hampton Roads, according to the poll.

[Not Nate Silver]

Ben:

Aren't there a significant number of undecided voters, in the range of about 20% and of those aren't most of those voters Democrats or independents that by definition in being undecided, are more open to voting for other than a Republican ideological wolf in sheepish clothing? McDonnell may win but his voters have already committed. Democratic undecideds are taking a look at McDonnell because Creigh is not an exciting candidate. At the same time Creigh does not really have the negatives McDonnell has namely the suspicion that once he gets in he will impose an extremist religious agenda on the rest of us, and that he will exascerbate the transportation mess by refusing to take common sense measures like returning more funds to urban localities by altering the funding formulas and enacting pay for use taxes like the gas tax. Creigh's voters break for him late as was seen in the Democratic primary where both of his opponents had higher negatives and Creigh was largely viewed as genuine even if unexciting. Could it be that the polls merely reflect an enthusiasm gap but may not necessarily be predictive of the ultimate result?

[Edthemanva]

not nate silver "Creigh does not really have the negatives McDonnell has"
Where you get that info? DNC talking points..
Polls show voters like McDonnell on most issues more and believe he is more main stream...Deeds too liberal

[SuzyQ]

McDonnell and Bolling made a deal that McDonnell will run this year and Bolling in 2013. McDonnell will honor that and support Bolling for Governor in 2013. There will be no fight.

I am surprised to hear that Wagner has ads. Are they being shown in NOVA? I have never seen one and I'm no stranger to television. It's on most of the day in my house.

I am totally shocked that democrats would consider running Oleszek again. She seems like a nice lady but she's one of the dumbest pols ever. ANY of the republicans will destroy her, with very little effort. That poor woman just won't catch on to the fact that she's simply too dumb for even a job in politics.

[VA Blogger]

SuzyQ, just because McDonnell and Bolling made a pact doesn't mean that Cuccinelli would step aside for him. And there's reason to believe that Cuccinelli would have the edge against Bolling at a convention.

Not Nate, Creigh Deeds has consistently had much higher negatives in the race than Bob McDonnell; his constant barrage of negative attacks hasn't helped, either.

[Sam]

What was the point of the "Commonwealth of Virginia" post above? Is Ben's blog starting to get spam/advertising in the comments?

[wow]

If all this happens - I am out of party politics.

[KingCranium]

Wagner isn't on tv in NoVa, but I watched the JMU-Richmond game on Comcast on Saturday and there were both Bolling and Wagner commercials on that telecast.

[Not Bill Howell]

Ah, yes. Time for the circular firing squad to come to arms.

Fact is, no Dem ever had a chance to keep the governorship this year. Without a doubt, McAuliffe or Moran would have been drubbed worse than Deeds, who at least has some appeal beyond the base.

This is all about national politics and the spotlight referendum on the White House. Ever since professed Virginia Republicans were let out of the nut house, the governorship has ALWAYS gone to the party out of the White House. The election is always in the first year of the prez's term, when he is spending the most political capital. Virginia always uses its spotlght to express the national trend of displeasure.

Ben's right about one thing: Not much difference between guys like McDonnell and McAuliffe, once in office. It's all about who they throw the plums to. But Jimmy Stewart Deeds might have been different.

[A Voter]

VA Blogger - Senator Cuccinelli agreed in the primary, along with his opponents, to allow Bolling to run uncontested for Governor, should they both win in November.

[Lauren Yoder]

A voter,
That is not correct. Ken said that unless something changes he would be crazy to run against Bolling. Brownlee said he would not run against Bolling, but Ken did not commit to staying out of the race. Since then I have heard Ken say he isn't planning to run against Bolling.

[Anonymous Is A Woman]

Not Bill Howell, I think you are right about the political climate and how it has worked against Democrats this time - just as it worked against Republicans when they had the White House.

The biggest problem is that the president's first year is always the most tumultous because it's a new administration making freshman mistakes and bucking the trend because, at some point, the honeymoon ends. The Virginia governor's race always comes just about the time that WH honeymoon fizzles.

It's also a harbinger of the congressional midterms, when the party in the White House also traditionally loses some seats in Congress and for very much the same reason.

I don't believe, though, that history is always a crystal ball. There could be conditions, including an individual so charismatic, or a message so compelling that it could buck those trends. But it's swimming upstream to do so. I'm not sure this is the year it will happen.

[Shakespeare Could've Written This Play]

1) Deeds is not a bad guy, but he took very bad advice. Never run a negative fear mongering campaign. He came out looking like the knuckle dragger, even though he was trying to tar his opponent. Decent guy takes bad advice and then pays for it by sliding off into obscurity. It's a shame. I thought he and McD were a toss up for AG a few years ago. Both good, both qualified. McD outissued Deeds at every turn.

2) I keep having to remind myself who is running against Bolling. Oh, yeah. Her name is Judy something or other. She is MIA as a candidate. What has she done for me lately? I couldn't even pick her out of a line up. I don't even know what she looks like. A true no show.

3) Same with Shannon. Fine delegate. MIA as a candidate for AG. Much as I dislike Coochie's followers, I am going to vote for him. Because he actually seems to know what an Attorney General is supposed to do and as far as I see, he's gotten most things right. I don't know what Shannon knows (other than his lack of familiarity with the structure of the AG office). He's a real no show of a candidate, too.

At least Deeds can say he tried. But he cheapened his otherwise good reputation in the process. It's tragic, really.

[Bruce]

Bolling has not been content to ride the McDonnell wave or waste the value of incumbency.

For the past four years he has travelled the state on his "100 Issues" tour. He has built contacts, networks and support outside of his Richmond suburban base.

His campaign has signs and volunteers and literature seperate from McDonnell. Drive through Fairfax and Bollings signs are as visible as McDonnell or Deeds.

I think he will buck the trend of trailing the gubernatorial candidate of his own party. My wife, who has voted in both Dem and GOP primaries and is often targeted as a swing voter, was polled on the races. Asked for her opinion of Jody Wagner, she said "Who?"

[Divorce Her]

Bruce, shame on your stupid ass wife. As voters it is our job to become acquainted with who is running to hold public office. And if she is such an involved citizens she would know who was running for the second highest office in the state.

Get divorced QUICK!

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