This Will Be The Second Time in Modern History Democrats Have Lost 5 or More House Seats in One Election

The only other time?  When Creigh Deeds was Chairman of the House Democratic Caucus in 2001 and Democrats lost 13 seats in one cycle.

Congrats Creigh!  You'll be #1 and #2 in this category now!

Comments

[James Martin]

Yes, Republican Redistricting was Creigh Deeds' fault... that makes perfectly logical sense.

[D]

I'm mad at Deeds too, but we lost that many seats that cycle because of the horrible redistricting plan. It wasn't ALL his fault.

[Not Larry Sabato]

In 2001 I was Campaign Manager for the only campaign to beat a GOP incumbent, or pick up a GOP seat. (We actually lost 14, balanced by our 1 pick up).

I can promise you- Creigh Deeds had a LOT to do with those losses, as well as the new lines. The Caucus was a complete disaster.

[James Martin]

Or in any way his fault... Republicans gerrymandered for 70 seats... not 64.

And even if Creigh loses, losing House seats wouldn't be his fault. When George Allen killed Mary Sue Terry by 20 points in 1993, the result was negligible.

[Ward, thanks for playing...]

Time for Ward to go. This happened on his watch. And Brian Moran's watch. VA House Dems were winning seats, and on their way back to a majority, until these two assclowns took the reigns. Ward and Brian have been an embarrassment.

[SE VA MWC Alum]

Actually the R's picked up 6 seats from D's in 93. And to me it looks like a 2 or 3 seat Republican pickup this year

[SE VA MWC Alum]

Ward took over before '07 when dems picked up 4 seats. Much of this is simple political trends. VA tends to go against whoever is in the WH.

[DanielK]

You know since most of the Democratic activists have abandoned the statewide ticket don't you think that those who went to work for the House candidates will negate the possible poor results at the top of the ticket? They are very motivated about their house candidates which will by itself increase turnout and then help the top ballot candidates.

I'm thinking that Democrats will differentiate between house candidates and those on the statewide ticket.

[Ghost of RWR]

Ben

My apologies for being off topic, but when will you take on YOUR President (not mine) for selling favors to Democrat Donors for access to the White House? This is a disgrace, Ben. And yes, I know that other Presidents have done this in one from or another. But this guy, O-blah-blah, was supposed to change Washington and he has set goals for this underhanded stuff, $300K for this, 200K for that. This should make every American ashamed of their government.

Ben show us your stuff. Speak out. This is flat wrong. Hope and change has become pay to play.

[SE VA MWC Alum]

Actually RWR he's all of our president-just as Bush was. Not that I am a fan of either BHO or GWB

[McDonnell wins Creigh Country 65-35]

Creigh Deeds is the worst candidate in VA history. Just about. He gives Jerry Kilgore a run for his money.

But let's not blame Creigh. He's a nice enough guy.

Let's blame the people who pushed him in the primary. Those people aren't just screwing over the VA Democratic party - they're not just screwing over the delegate candidates - they're not just screwing over Wagner and Shannon. They're screwing over President Obama.

Every Creigh Deeds supporter from the primary is guilty. I sentence them to 50 years to life of permanent political irrelevance, with no possibility of parole.

[JInks]

pro-biz Dems like Shuler and Armstrong are safe. Ultra libs like Bouchard are toast.

[McDonnell wins Creigh Country 65-35]

Ghost of RWR:

Great. Keep pushing that issue. Who cares? We're already measuring the drapes for 2012. You're pathetic front-running candidates are polling 12+ down to Obama. I hope you nominate Palin. I've always wanted to watch a Presidential landslide of Bob McDonnell-like proportions.

[SE VA MWC Alum]

McAuliffe wasnt likely to do any better. Virginia has a habit of sending a "keep humble" method to all new presidents, one year into their terms.

[McDonnell wins Creigh Country 65-35]

DanielK -

That's a very hopeful assessment, but delegate candidates are dealing with a pool of volunteers that is 1/10th of the size of the pool from 2005. As much as people care about these delegate races, it's the gubernatorial race that actually motivates the progressive activists. And at this point, Creigh Deeds has punched progressive activists in the balls about 10 times.

The only question at this point is whether Creigh breaks 40%. That's the over-under. It's a tough bet...it's like betting on the Redskins to cover a 7 point spread against a high school team. You want to bet on the skins because you're a fan, but you have this gut feeling that they'll only win by 4 points.

[McDonnell wins Creigh Country 65-35]

SE VA Alum -

Ummm - Creigh Deeds is about to lose by 16%. A soggy cardboard box could have done better. You can bet that Terry would have made this a race. I suspect he would have lost by 3-5% because McDonnell is a fairly strong candidate, but he would have given his ticketmates a chance. He would have put $20 million into the race and increased Democratic turnout so the delegates would have a chance to compete.

Creigh Deeds spent about 2 months hanging out in SW VA counties with a population density of 1 person per every 5 square miles. That was his campaign strategy.

[DanielK]

McD win Creigh County: First off, with the way supposed Democrats have turned on all statewide candidates it seems like the have been soccer kicked in the balls....but anyways!

But like I said, those progressive activists have moved to the house races and even though they aren't the size maybe they can get those voters out. I personally believe they will....it's just a feeling I have but I can't put my finger on it.

I'll go with James' assessment that even though there may be some serious pwnage by the GOP statewide the results on the House will be nominal and that's because they really didn't rely on the coordinated campaign!

[McDonnell wins Creigh Country 65-35]

DanielK -

I get what you're saying. More delegates aren't counting on the coordinated campaign. But they are really missing the volunteers that have been depressed this year by Creigh Deeds' campaign strategy:

1. Punch liberals in the nuts
2. Hide behind a big mountain all summer

And James has already been sentenced to 50 years to life of political irrelevance, so his opinion is not important.

Plus, his analogy is idiotic. 1993 was part of a different era before today's era of partisan political polarization (where straight ticket voting is on the rise). There was less of a "ticket" effect because many conservative democrats saw George Allen as an old Democrat back then. After all - Allen loves the n-word and spitting on wives. Old southern Democrats loved these things too!

In all seriousness, 1993 is not analogous to 2009. If Bob McDonnell wins by 16%, he'll take a bunch of HoD seats with him. People vote straight ticket now-a-days because the parties have stratified neatly to the left and right. The national party and state party closely resembles the local parties. Voters can safely vote a straight ticket and assume that they're supporting the same policies up and down the ticket.

[asmith]

McDonnell wins Creigh Country regarding straight ticket voting;

If that's the case then in 2005 why did two Virginia Beach districts vote Kaine-Wardrup and Kaine-Iaquinto?

[Not Larry Sabato]

asmith, I don't want to cut off "65-35" but I am posting on that tonight or tomorrow!

[SE VA MWC Alum]

65-35 - McAuliffe would have been like a D-Ollie North. Big out of state money and endorsements, no VA political background, and the appearance of trying to buy the election. He would have lost moderates-a category that Creigh is still winning. (if you read the crosstabs moderates and independents are not lining up in a similar manner)

[DanielK]

BMac wins Creigh Country: I simply say this because as I do call time for candidates I get a lot saying they are support the Dem house candidate but McDonnell which is surprising. Hell, Ben was telling me about how many voters went Kaine-Bryne-McD in 2005 so I'm hoping the same logic holds true here, except it's applied more to House candidates!

[SE VA MWC Alum]

Also I dont think there is a significant difference in straight ticket voting now vs. 1993. The parties have stratified but a larger percentage of people call themselves independents and they dont vote straight ticket either party.

Most people are moderates, looking for solutions, and dont care about ideological rigidity. They think that Michael Moore and Glenn Beck are both wingnuts and approve of people like Mark Warner and Charlie Crist.

On the statewides they may be more likely to vote S/T due to lack of familiarity with downballot candidates. However they are unlikely to turn on local incumbents with whom they are familiar (see Valentine, D. Marshall, Barlow, etc) unless that incumbent has given them a particular reason to.

[Baghdad Bob]

Hey James, stop pretending to be me, Baghdad Bob. There's only one Baghdad Bob and it's not you. Sorry.

[kelley in virginia]

I for one think that much of this race is influenced by what is going on in Washington.

But if you don't believe that, then why can't the overwhelming majority of NOVA libs & Obamba Dems push Creigh Deeds over the finish line?

[Sean Holihan]

Brian Moran and Ward Armstrong were the reason we started to pick up seats in the House of Delegates. Under their leadership we climbed out of the 30s to where we are now. No one can fault them for what's happening now.

Also - Joe Bouchard is NOT a liberal. Just talk to him.

[dr_cathy]

Kelley in Virginia - DC crappola is affecting the VA race. Anyone who says differently is paying attention.

Indy's have turned off the boob tube, cancelled their newspaper and magazine subscriptions and now go to the internet to get their news. The majority of the blogs - R, L, C - are focused solely on national news and these voters do not like what they are seeing.

The 2008 race was a game changer. D's like to pretend the party is unified and we're not. Far from it. B/c D's won the WH and Congress, mindful voters are looking for a way to counter balance and send a strong signal to the elite up for re election in 2010 that their seats aren't safe. Especially if they continue to bankrupt the country with their out of control spending. Voters who have turned to the blogosphere are not at all happy with the crap happening in the WH, Pelousy's House or Reid's Senate.

Creigh, TMac nor Moran could win given the mood of the voters. No way in hell.

Ben, maybe I missed your post but I haven't seen any mention by you about the hit job the Post, 0 and Kaine did on Deeds campaign last week. Why is that? Are you still drinking the kool aid?

[dr_cathy]

oops! meant "isn't paying attention"

[Gretchen Laskas]

I guess I'm not paying attention, because I don't believe this election has much to do with Obama and Washington.

What I do know is that state-wide elections in VA that only rely upon Northern VA to push Democrats over the top have failed. And those type of elections (I'm thinking of Don Beyer's in particular) alienate Democrats from the rest of the state for years following them.

One of the real problems Deeds has right now isn't so much NoVa, but the rest of the Commonwealth. Why is someone who is actually from there and who cares about the Commonwealth more than any candidate we've ever had (in my opinion) doing WORSE in those areas than previous candidates? I'm not sure I know the answer to that (or that any NoVa is the best person to answer it.) But it's one of the lesser-discussed stories of this campaign, mostly because media and blogs (like this one) are for the most part, NoVa-centric.

[Sam]

Poll after poll shows Deeds polling 7-10 points under Obama's Virginia approval rating. That's pretty strong evidence to me that this has nothing to do with Washington and everything to do with a campaign that has made George Allen's 2006 campaign look masterful....

[the poster formerly known as 147.]

Before anyone else uses this out of control spending line:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aA8lChe4zUQU

The deficit is not spending by Obama - its lower tax receipts and the bailout money Bush approved. It's a false political attack but one Republicans are either dumb enough to believe or cynical enough to carry out.

[Prester John]

You mean the bailout money approved by a Democratic controlled House and Senate, or didn't Harry and Nancy and Barney and Dianne and Barbara et al have anything to do with it?

[change]

PJ,
Most liberals apparently do not understand how money is appropriated, even after Bush was out of office and Obambi was signing the spending abuse they still think Bush was responsible.

They wanted the victory and the job, but not the responsibility.

[Gretchen Laskas]

And some of us not only take responsibility for advocating for the bail out, but believe that the bailout last fall was the only intelligent thing that the Bush adminstration ever did!

[Michael]

Creigh is going to lose because he is a sorry candidate who ran a sorry race, Wagner was going to lose anyway regardless of who else ran, she is pitiful to. The one that I thought would have stood a chance is Shannon. But even if Deeds would have won, which now it doesn't look like that is going to be the case, the HOD would have still been Republican controlled. I don't buy the straight ticket voting. I think people vote for who they think will do the best job. One state Obama won I don't see him winning again even though I do think he will win in a landslide in 2012 is Indiana, he won Indiana but every other major race except for the House seats that were expected to go Democrat went to the Republicans. You had a Republican governor get re-elected by over 20 points. So split ticket is the way most people vote.

[edthemanva]

Suffolk University Poll

Q21. When all the votes are counted next Tuesday, who do you think will be our
next governor? (Not necessarily who you are voting for but who do you think
will be the next Governor?) - Bob McDonnell or Creigh Deeds?

McDonnell 67
Deeds 21

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/FINAL_VA_Statewide_Marginals_Oct_28_2009.pdf

[Stonewall Brigade]

The Ds will not see a majority in the HOD for at least 8 years after this election and redistricting. The only question left is does Roscoe Reynold want a bigger pension? Conventional wisdom says he does so look for a special election in February. oh I almost left out Puckett, he has a few years in state govt too, I think he wants a bigger pension also. Oh yes here comes the elephants. Lol. You donkeys move on back to MD.

[Not Matt Lohr]

My God! 67-21?

[change]

Stonewall,
I rather hope that the Senate remains D and there are no defections. I rather like the idea of balance in the government; even though I consider myself conservative.

I think a quick look at what is currently going on in Washington shows how “one party rule” can bring about arrogance and abuse not fitting our intended representative republic.

It's the old "absolute power" adage.

[Blue Dog Dem]

Ward Armstrong is to blame for this mess even if he is (as he ALWAYS) reminds people he is a Duke elitist.

The late Hunter Andrews use to make fun of him for his lack of ability to guide. Many good people lost money following his pleas and candidate choices. Sad.