PROJECTED WINNERS

I'm also liveblogging at NBC12 tonight.

7:00 p.m. Bob McDonnell defeats Creigh Deeds
7:00 p.m. Bill Bolling defeats Jody Wagner
7:00 p.m. Ken Cuccinelli defeats Steve Shannon

HOUSE OF DELEGATES
60 REPUBLICANS
39 DEMOCRATS
1 RACE UNCALLED

UNCALLED RACES (Pre-Election Rating)
7:33 PROJECTED WINNER : Bob Brink  (Likely Dem)
8:37 PROJECTED WINNER: Albert Pollard (Likely Dem)
8:44 PROJECTED WINNER: Mark Sickles  (Likely Dem)
8:08 PROJECTED WINNER: Vivian Watts (Likely Dem)
7:30 PROJECTED WINNER: Ward Armstrong (Likely Dem)
9:36 PROJECTED WINNER: Paula Miller (Likely Dem)
8:12 PROJECTED WINNER:  Lynwood Lewis  (Likely Dem)
9:58 PROJECTED WINNER: Dave Marsden (Leans Dem)
8:46 PROJECTED WINNER: Kaye Kory  (Leans Dem)
8:28 PROJECTED WINNER:  Scott Surovell  (Slight-Lean Dem)
9:59 PROJECTED WINNER: Barbara Comstock- PICKUP (Toss Up)
9:22 PROJECTED WINNER: Luke Torian- PICKUP  (Toss Up)
9:45 PROJECTED WINNER: Robin Abbott- PICKUP (Toss Up)
9:33 PROJECTED WINNER: Bill Barlow (Toss Up)
8:33 PROJECTED WINNER:  Mark Keam (Toss Up)
9:47 PROJECTED WINNER: Scott Garrett- PICKUP   (Toss Up)
Matheison v. Villanova (Slight-Lean GOP)
9:35 PROJECTED WINNER: Jim LeMunyon- PICKUP (Slight-Lean GOP)
9:22 PROJECTED WINNER: Tag Greason- PICKUP (Slight-Lean GOP)
9:49 PROJECTED WINNER: Rich Anderson- PICKUP (Slight-Lean GOP)
9:42 PROJECTED WINNER: Chris Stolle- PICKUP (Leans GOP)
7:54 PROJECTED WINNER:  Will Morefield- PICKUP (Leans GOP)
9:39 PROJECTED WINNER: Dave Albo (Leans GOP)
8:33 PROJECTED WINNER:  Tom Rust (Leans GOP)
7:38 PROJECTED WINNER: Anne Crockett-Stark (Likely GOP)
7:43 PROJECTED WINNER: Dave Nutter (Likely GOP)
7:46 PROJECTED WINNER: Danny Marshall (Likely GOP)
7:36 PROJECTED WInner:  Tom Gear (Likely GOP)

Comments

[NGB]

I'm going to be optimistic and guess 55.8 - 43.1

[Spock]

Har! Larry Sabato is on Hardball right now....

[Esoteric]

Oof.

[CarolineProgressive]

Catherine Crabill was at the Bowling Green precinct in Caroline County earlier today. I heard she got into an argument with the Caroline Republican Committee chair. Maybe it had something to do with her name not being on their sample ballot.

Calling it @ 7:15pm: Albert Pollard wins.

[Spock]

Hardball just showed McD 67% and Deeds 33%

[wb]

Can't win them all. Two steps forward, one step back.

[Church Hill Dem]

Nice jacket you're wearing on NBC12, NLS.

[I.Publius]

And tonight is a BIG step forward. Better still, it's just a preview of 2010.

The honeymoon is over, Barry O. Good luck getting any of your socialist agenda passed for the next 7 years.

[Spock]

Yeah, I.Pube, because a religionist Gov, a Fascist AG and an absentee Lt. Gov have anything to do with what gets past on The Hill .... NOT!!!

[Not Royston Jester]

Valentine is off to a good start in Ward 1 (the wealthy side of town). If she keeps this up, she should survive.

[I.Publius]

Nothing gets past you, spock. You're one smart muther.

I'll simplify it for you, since that clearly went over your head. This election is a sign of what's to come.

I assume that in '92, '93 and '94 you were busy shitting your pants and eating soft food off a plastic tray. But you could read about it if you took the time. In a nutshell, Billary won the White House in '92 in a wave of euphoria - of HOPE and CHANGE from Republican rule. Hillary tried to socialize the health care industry. George Allen bitchslapped the heavily favored Mary Sue Terry in '93, followed by Newt and the GOP revolution in '94.

Get ready to see history repeated.

[wb]

Blah blah blah. If conservative thought meant moving forward, they wouldn't call it conservative. End of story.

[cd]

No, a repeat of 1994 is not going to happen. The Democratic caucus in Congress is nowhere like that bunch of tired, useless conservatives it was then. The national electorate splits in a way that means Democratic majority.

You guys can win 40 Blue Dogs' seats next year and you still won't get majority in the House. In fact, on trend Democrats are going to get past 218 solid Party line votes there after next November. (The number goes up about 10 every two years and we're at ~210.)

[Spock]

I.Pube- keep those fantasies, fact is Repubs took this because the Dem candidates were acting like Repubs and did poor campaigns.

Deeds inspired none of the base and the Obama voters (except those blind idiots who thought he had a chance)

T-Mac would have mopped up the floor with McD and we all know it.

[crock]

Hey spock, I'm a Dem and a big Creigh fan and boy are you an absolute jackass. It seems like you live in a fantasy world of the beltway. Terry may have done better but this was about more than the individual candidates, and Terry would have lost. You are such an arrogant little punk.

[Not Timothy Geithner]

Yeah, T-Mac was inspirational in those Dem primaries thats why Deeds lost in June.

[I.Publius]

ok, fellas -- keep those blinders on and keep tapping your ruby slippers. Whatever makes you feel good. The writing is on the wall.

[crock]

like him or not, I pube is right

[Spock]

Crock- T-Mac would have inspired Obama voters who do not come out for nominations, he would have had Sheila Johnson endorsement and $$$'s, he would have had the Doug Wilder endorsement, not to mention all that Clinton $$$'s and connections.

It's not only about the white rednecks, so get over yourself, your demographic is FAIL!

And take the racist MudRat playbook with you, it's not a VA Democrat option no mo.

[Spock]

T-Mac would have inspired the Obama voters, had the Sheila Johnson endorsement and $$$'s, the African American vote, the young vote.

The white redneck Mudrat playbook is FAIL.

[dr_cathy]

Damn, McDonnell is winning by two to one. That's incredible.

I Publius is right. It's 0 and his way left policymaking. He's surrounded himself by folks that are even more radical.

We are not a nation made up of radical lefts or rights and we reject those who are. Our collective tolerance for such crap has grown much shorter and the voting public is sick and tired of the games being played out of DC.

Deeds is the first real casualty. There will be many more...

[Spock]

Crock- have a donut ...

[Not Royston Jester]

With 72% of the precincts in, Valentine leads by 1200 votes. Garrett still has hope with the Liberty vote, but lost his home ward badly. Given how turnout was running, I don't think he can make up the ground.

[Joe McKenan]

Go Catherine Crabell!

[crock]

T-Mac didn't inspire anyone during the primary when he needed a microcosm of the vote then as he would have needed now. You can say woulda-coulda-shoulda all night, but it was almost written in the stars for McDonnell to win this one.

So again with the elitist, sanctimonious horseshit you spew. Funny thing is you're one of those keyboard tough guys who'd get his bell rung and his ass wrapped over his forehead if you came from where I'm from. You can make these elitist, anti-lower/middle class statements all you want; your tactic and way of thinking is of the small-minded nature.
Sit tight up there and keep thinking you're better than everyone else!

[CarolineProgressive]

Joe McKenan: another proud Catherine "Crabell" supporter

[Esoteric]

Can someone toss me a link to where the HOD election returns are coming in?

[Spock]

Crock- Ummm yeah ....right... nominations bring out party animals, the rest of the real world has a life.

Now, I voted in the primary, so I am a sucker too, and I didn't vote T-Mac, I voted Brian.

But, looking back Ben was 100%. Love or hate the NLS, but the guy is gifted in the political party world, and he was 100% right to back T-Mac.

T-Mac would have also brought out the hipsters, minorities, Bobby Scott's district SOLID.

Sorry, bending over and kissing your redneck butt and flicking off the demographics that actually COUNT in elections, is why McD is NOW our governor, and Mussolini is now our AG....HAPPY???

The Dem candidates kissed your butt all through the whole campaign ... and it killed the election.

You can come groveling back to us Leftists anytime now ....

[I.Publius]

Listening to all the Democrats give their concessions. Tim "Lt. Dan" Kaine was a laugh riot. "Virginians appreciate the Democratic approach to solving problems."

Yeah, Tim... all 39% of 'em. LOL.

[In the YC]

Lesson for future gubernatorial campaigns: It's time for Democrats to start acting like Democrats on the campaign trail!

Tonight, my heart goes out to Jody and Steve.

[Joe McKenan]

Caroline Progressive: She's gonna win.

[novamiddleman]

Spock its people like you that seriously freak me out. I'm beginning to think you have to be a caricature. Either way with people like you I will NEVER become a democrat

[Jess]

T-MAC-- he spewed like $15M and got 25% of the vote. No way that pol would have done better.

[Spock]

Well, at least there is a "Green Party" win...and she has Sci-fi pix on her site .... qool ...

http://www.europekorearesort.com/

[Spock]

NovaMiddle- I am not a Dem ... and I am 100% right, just try and prove me wrong ...

[novamiddleman]

Still waiting for this imaginary wave which like I said was never going to happen. All of those young and black Obama voters are one and done. Thats also why the delegate races aren;t changing. These districts are gerrymandered and the Ds already picked off the ones where the demographics have shifted out.

[Spock]

"All of those young and black Obama voters are one and done. "

Wow, I hope you're a Republican, because if you are a Dem, you and scum like you are to blame for tonight .

What makes me sick is that you actually live in the same state.

[BleedingBlueHeart]

Thanks to Terry McAuliffe for starting the train that led to this wreck.

[crock]

You can't prove a hypothetical wrong, which is all you present, Spock. The hypothetical that "terry would've done this and that and had this success and that success". You're not right because its a hypothetical and there is no way to prove it wrong.

So, I'm a "redneck"? Just because I don't live in the beltway or because I supported out candidate for Governor? Interesting logic. Or as you would say: "LOGIC FAIL!" Perhaps more than a failure than the Deeds campaign, which didn't kiss my butt in any regard.

You seem like you're somewhere around 13-17 years old. Its probably passed your bedtime. If you're older than that range then I feel bad for you because you project that. Keep hating, you petty, classless, classist, elitist, little child.

[Gene E. Magruder]

Abbott has won bye phil newport news wins big in 5 elections- All 4 constitutional offices.

[orfdem]

Ben,

Paula Miller won with 57% of the vote. Update your predictions.

[LOLz]

Terry Mc is an absolute joke. I'm amazed by the logic that he would've excited the base in the general when he couldn't excite any group in the primary and um, little spocky, the base is who votes in the primary!

LOLz LOLz FAIL!

[Spock]

"Crock"- your playbook is FAIL.

Time for VA Dems to get new strategists, and fire the MudRat goonies.

[dr_cathy]

That's great news about Abbott!

Harvey Morgan is now second in seniority on House Appropriations. That will be interesting. Bodes better for Virginia now that Phil's been put out to pasture.

[Esoteric]

Looks like Phil Hamilton is about to get involuntarily retired by the good people of Newport News, and even as a Republican I couldn't care less. He earned his ticket to private life (or perhaps jail).

[J]

Torian is a pickup.

[BleedingBlueHeart]

Much to Ben's chagrin, this probably makes Gerry Connelly the odds-on favorite to be the next Democratic nominee for Governor.

[Spock]

Connelly would run a better campaign than Deeds ...

[SE VA MWC Alum]

This was an absolute beatdown-voted for Deeds but he got killed. knew that he was going to lose but didnt think it would be so big.

Congrats to Gov.elect McDonnell and his ticketmates and campaign team! While I didnt vote for McDonnell I can say that if he governs as he campaigned he'll probably be a good governor. Lets hope so.

Deeds' poor showing can be blamed on a lousy campaign (toooo negative), and great McDonnell campaign, and backlash against Obama(who in my opinion, even last fall was going to be a disaster for democrats in VA). All three are significant, I cant say which is most significant. Thats my opinion, for whatever its worth-probably not much.

Congrats to the new governor

[Esoteric]

WHOA DOG. Did anyone else notice that Ben retracted his projected victory for Valentine and gave it to Garrett instead.

Holy shit, the Liberty vote turned out en masse after all. Thanks, Jerry Fallwell!

[Esoteric]

And Garrett won by only 200 votes!

[Bwana]

Assuming Chap! wins reelection, I tend to think he has better chances of winning a primary than Gerry does

[jeffersonian1]

Those who know my posts will know that I'm a pretty serious Dem, but Harvey Morgan is an incredibly decent man and, now, number 2 on Appropriations.

Question is whether Speaker Howell will even let him be on the conference committee?

[change]

Well, I will be the first to admit I was wrong. I didn’t think this election would be such a landslide. Combine this with the NJ race and it projects an even more powerful message to the Obambi administration and any legislator who believes themselves to be “moderate”.

Pushing this liberal agenda has now created a new “change”.

[I.Publius]

The NJ race is an even bigger black eye for Obama than the Virginia debacle.

Man oh man, I'm looking forward to 2010.

[change]

gotta love all of the excuses.

I just want to remind all the liberals of one thing "elections have consequences"
btw.. did you guys catch AG Cuccinelli's speach???

It was a good night for VA and the people therein.

Congratulations to all the winners. Sleep well the slumber of the victorious.

[dr_cathy]

keep an eye on DC this Thursday. In less than five days, thousands of people are heading to DC to protest the healthcare blob Pelosi put on the table on Friday. It's going to be a huge event.

The people going are Tea Partyers. NOT R's NOT D's NOT I's, simply hard working folk that are fighting tooth and nail against healthcare and the out of control spending in DC.

There is a lot of momentum building and y'all ain't seen nothing yet. It isn't about re electing R's or D's. It's about reducing spending AND upholding the laws of this nation.

[dr_cathy]

my bad, it's late, but meant to say, that it took less than five days ...

[Jimmy Smith]

Crazy - this isn't just a R win but a crushing. How pathetic, the D nominee is going to lose by 15+ points. To think a year ago a D won statewide by 6+ points and now to lose by 15+ is amazing.

[Embarassment to Virginia]

The political analysis in this comment section is amazing. You guys on both sides don't know what youre talking about. Each one of you sounds like a "petty, classless, classist, elitist, little child."

I want Don Beyer to come back from Switzerland....so he can sell me a Volvo. Then I'll escape from this blog, and from Virginia.

[The Hoff]

Great night to be a Republican all around. Landslide sweep, pickups in the House, and winning in NJ as well. Then coming back here and read Spock's rapid decent into delirium, well that's just icing on the cake.

[HisRoc]

Embarassment (sic) to Virginia,

Yes, you are. Buh-bye, dick head.

[notnotlarrysabato]

Ben and many others who cried when their guy lost in the primary are a good deal of the reason there no enthusiasm for Deeds. Ward Armstrong and Dickie Cranwell are losers and should just retire. Armstrong spent many many times what his opponent did and won be a lot less that one would have thought. again he picked up no seats anywhere near him. Last time He lost near him 3-0 and this time Danny Marshall showed how poor a choice Armstrong made in picking Anderson.

[WestEndVoter]

By 16 votes (margin of victory for Villanueva), Ben looks to be perfect on his pre-election predictions.

Don't know why I bothered following the returns tonight...

[HisRoc]

One of the more interesting aspects of tonight's results in how badly the Connolly Machine failed to deliver. Connolly's former campaign manager and hand-picked candidate for the Providence School Board seat was soundly defeated by almost eight percentage points by Patty Reed. Most of us in Providence viewed John's run for the school board as nothing but a precursor to his running for Linda Smyth's seat on the Board of Supervisors. And, Connolly's hand-picked candidate for Steve Shannon's HOD seat in the 35th District barely beat Perennial-Candidate-For-Anything Jim Hyland by a little more than 1 percentage point.

Who can we recruit to oppose Boss Gerry in the primary next year?

[HisRoc]

Chap! For Congress

[Charles]

Yes, whatever his faults, Ben is really good at picking the winners.

[cracklin]

This is a complete repudiation for the McAuliffe/Deeds strategy that one would win the nomination and reward the other.

[Radar]

Bye bye Dave Poisson, we hardly knew ye. Too bad you can't run against Dick Black every time.

[Jim LeMunyon]

Ben,

Great job on the predictions....and I know how badly you want one of those matching shirts. Pls send shirt size and we'll be happy to provide one. :)

[A Voter]

It's with as much humility as I am able to muster, that I have to say, "SUCK IT CAPUTO!!!"

LOL!!!

This is GREAT! Caputo, his volunteer-hating staff, his miserable and short-lived political career are all GONE!!!

And just think, Caputo, now you can go on as many vacations as you'd like, since you won't have any more important transportation votes to skip.

[Not Jeff Frederick]

Clark's 64th loss to Barlow can be attributed to one person: Jeff Frederick wannabe RICK MORRIS

Rick is the husband of the Isle of Wight County GOP Chair, and a blowhard that can't control himself. My brother lives in Smithfield and what he has heard buzzing around town is that Rick is already planning his own run for the State Senate in 2011 (meaning a primary against incumbent Fred Quayle) or even waging a campaign against Jack Wilson, the 4th CD Chairman. It is important to note that Rick has only lived in this area for a few years and very few people of significance actually know him.
Rick used sneaky maneuvering during the candidate selection process and tried to do things “his way”. That upset some in the party and lead those activists to find a really bad candidate (enter Mike Holle).

Mike Holle, a Mormon Pastor from Surry, was a fringe conservative that never had a chance at winning the general election but did create some traction in the primary. Holle had no higher education, experience and no record of public service or stance on issues - he never provided any real solutions to any major problem - he only attacked the frontrunner for the GOP nomination (enter Stan Clark).

Stan is a good man. He worked hard, went against the odds, and won a primary that many thought he would lose. He is a great listener and touted his record of being a former police officer and tough prosecutor, businessman and 10 year member of the IOW County Board of Supervisors. Clark spent precious time and ( even more importantly) funds in the primary (which he won) that left him financially drained with a divided party all the while the incumbent was raising money and preparing for the general election (enter Bill Barlow)

Barlow is a "nice guy". He has been in the HOD for many years and has really no record of accomplishment(s). Most of his committee assignments are lower-level and after serving for 18 years, he is not the ranking Dem on any committee. Barlow touted his record of saving the life of a police officer that may have possibly contracted a deadly disease while on duty. In actuality, what Barlow did (submitting a claims bill that passed) would have been done by any delegate. What Barlow did for the police officer is the equivalent of what a legislator would do for someone wrongfully convicted and jailed for committing a crime they did not commit.

Stan started out with a divided party and united them. The problem is that the party should have been behind Stan in the first place. Stan did the best he could, but with Rick Morris constantly making a fool of himself, the IOW Republican Party, and Republican candidates, the votes Stan needed went to Barlow. Stan lost by less than 4%, meaning that it was winnable. Thanks Rick for letting an undeserving delegate go back to Richmond. Rick Morris=Jeff Frederick.

[Barlow Supporter]

It was the toughest year for a Democrat in decades. Deeds lost the 64th by 20 points. The GOP and Clark dropped more mail and had more tv/radio than the Barlow and the Ds. There was a Green Party candidate. Yet Barlow still won.

[Deeds Is A Self-Described Liberal]

Congratulations to Fluvanna Supervisor-elect Shaun Kenney!!! How'd you miss that one, Ben?

[Gene E. Magruder]

boy if the right really thinks this is about Obama they need to read the exit polls in both NJ and VA. Both show that Obama was not in play. So go ahead misconstrue the results and you go right like in NY-23. Boy you guys are really weird. By the way didn't you lose NY-23 a highly conservative area by demanding a far right palinite. :)

[Not Timothy Geithner]

Notnotlarrysabato,

Does your moniker imply you are actually Larry Sabato, an intense Ben, or just not notlarrysabato? Inquiring minds wish to know.

[Charles]

No, Gene, NY-23 was lost because local chairs picked a "republican" candidate so liberal that she couldn't get a plurality of voters to support her (according to the polls, that is), and in response the "republican" candidate, while being supported by the local and national republican committees, and after spending almost a million dollars of republican committee money, QUIT the race, leaving the republican party high-and-dry, and endorsed the Democrat.

If your local party is going to pick a candidate who quits when she's behind and endorses the democrat while she's still ON THE BALLOT, you're going to lose elections.

My bet is that lesson will be learned, and republican committees will find a way to pick nominees who will actually stick with their party and won't endorse democrats.

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Entschuldigen Sie, was ich jetzt in die Diskussionen nicht teilnehmen kann - es gibt keine freie Zeit. Aber ich werde befreit werden - unbedingt werde ich schreiben dass ich in dieser Frage denke.