The Democratic Gilmore- Repost from July 2008

It's remarkable looking back at how almost identical the Tim Kaine and Jim Gilmore stories are.

Both were little known local officials in the Richmond area with no General Assembly experience.  Gilmore was Commonwealth Attorney in Henrico County, and Kaine was a City Councilman elected from one-ninth of the City of Richmond, who was later selected by his fellow Councilman to Chair the meetings.  This gave him the title of "Mayor" but at that time in Richmond, "Mayor" was just the Councilman who ran the meetings and wasn't even elected city-wide.

Both of these local officials in Richmond gained notability through hardball racial politics.  Gilmore as Commonwealth's Attorney pushed cases involving white victims and black defendants, and used that to ride to huge popularity in the white community in the Richmond suburbs.  Kaine became the first white "Mayor" in modern Richmond City history with the votes of a few African American Councilman.  Kaine's popularity soared- but much of that popularity was in the white majority suburbs of Richmond.  Kaine's politics at the time were clearly left of center city politics, but white conservatives in the suburbs overlooked that because he was a white Mayor of Richmond- something they had been waiting for.

Both Gilmore and Kaine as local officials watched the opposite party control state government during their rise in local government.  In Gimore's case, all three statewide officials were Democrats (Wilder/Beyer/Terry) and in Kaine's case, all three were Republicans (Gilmore/Hager/Earley).  In Gilmore's case he watched Governor Wilder's popularity falling as he considered running for Attorney General.  In Kaine's case, he ironically watched as Governor Gilmore's popularity faded.

Both caught major breaks as they considered statewide races.  Gilmore benefited from numerous bigger names deciding not to run statewide and ended up facing Salem Delegate Steve Agee for the nomination.  Kaine's road to a 2001 campaign was blocked by Democrats who had almost unanimous support for a ticket of Mark Warner and Emily Couric.  But in summer of 2000 when Couric announced she had pancreatic cancer and dropped out of the campaign- Kaine began preparing a statewide campaign within hours and began making calls for support before the end of the week.

While both Gilmore and Kaine were starting their first statewide campaigns, another loss struck again for their parties.  With the state already controlled by the other party, both saw the Presidency flip to the other party also (1992- Clinton, 2000- Bush).  With all three statewide offices and the Presidency now controlled by the other party, Gilmore and Kaine were handed a weapon as local officials looking to put a "new face" on their parties among activists starving for a victory.   

Both Kaine and Gilmore faced nomination contests that were overshadowed by other state politics.  In Gilmore's case, it was the rise of George Allen and his contested nomination for Governor at the convention.  In Kaine's case, it was the battle among Republicans between Mark Earley and John Hager for Governor.  Either way, both campaigns got very little press or attention in the public outside of party activists.

After winning their party nominations (Kaine for LG, Gilmore for AG), both were shunned by their ticketmate for Governor and forced to run their own political organizations.  In Gilmore's case, it was a battle between Allen loyalists like Mike Thomas, and his political organization headed by Boyd Marcus.  In Kaine's case, Mark Warner actually called a press conference just to distance himself from Kaine.  As one paper reported:  " Kaine’s vulnerabilities were not lost on Warner, who distanced himself from his fellow Democrat the day after Kaine won the lieutenant governor nomination. At a press conference for the 2001 Democratic ticket-mates, Warner told reporters that he disagreed with Kaine’s views on guns and capital punishment. Both men were elected that fall in spite of their sour campaign kickoff."

Weak candidates or not, the general public doesn't usually pick up on party rifts like these, and both Kaine and Gilmore were elected along with their candidates for Governor.  But both also faced an interesting circumstance going forward- the other candidate elected statewide was of the other party.  For Attorney General Jim Gilmore this was Lt. Governor Don Beyer, while for Lt. Governor Tim Kaine this was Attorney General Jerry Kilgore.  Every time in modern Virginia history that the two downballot winners were of opposite parties- they faced each other for Governor in four years.  Much to Mark Warner and George Allen's displeasure, Kaine and Gilmore would likely be their party's candidates to replace them as Governor.

Both new Governors suffered big defeats in the next election. George Allen had strongly supported and put his organization behind Ollie North- who came up short in his 1994 challenge to Chuck Robb.  Mark Warner got transportation referendums on the ballot in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, and then watched them got get obliterated at the polls.

Leading into the midterm elections for their Governors, Gilmore and Kaine traveled the state to small events for local candidates.  Drawing small crowds of party activists, Gilmore and Kaine both consolidated their support within the party to ensure there would be no challenge within the party for Governor.

In 1996 and 2004 both Gilmore and Kaine saw the Presidents of the other party re-elected, one year before their big moment of running for Governor.

Meanwhile, both Governor Allen and Governor Warner had soaring popularity ratings.  It was clear both would leave office with political futures ahead of them, but they needed one last victory:  keeping the Governorship within their party.  That meant Allen holding his nose for Gilmore, and Warner holding his nose for Kaine both of whom had been barely supported when running downballot from their Governor.

However, neither Governor Allen or Governor Warner was ready to give up control of the party to their junior partners preparing to run for Governor.  Allen kept the RPV fully under his control, while Warner blocked an attempt by Kaine to select the new DPVA Chair, pushing aside Kaine's choice Larry Roberts.

Even with popular Governors, Gilmore and Kaine struggled for most of their campaigns for Governor.  Just after Labor Day the Washington Post did a poll showing Don Beyer leading 44-43.  Meanwhile Jerry Kilgore had led by double digits for much of the year, and continued to hold 4-6 point leads around Labor Day.  Huge post labor day swings towards Gilmore and Kaine in the last couple months, gave Gilmore a 13 point victory, while Kaine won by 6 points.

Gilmore's campaign was regarded for having taken off for the "No Car Tax" slogan, while much of the credit for Kaine's victory went to Kilgore's mistakes.  But it is unlikely either one of them would have been elected without popular outgoing Governor's of their party stumping hard for their election.

The late surges by Gilmore and Kaine had one major causality:  The House of Delegates.  Late surges happen well after candidate recruitment is complete, leaving weaker candidates on the field than would have been there otherwise.  Both Kaine and Gilmore only reduced the opposition control of the House by two seats.  Gilmore from 53 to 51, Kaine from 60 to 58.  Both Governors-Elect began using appointments to create special elections.  Gilmore went 7-0 in his special elections, picking up one more seat in the House of Delegates, and one extra seat in the State Senate.  Kaine went 3-2 in his special elections, but since only one had been controlled by a Democrat before, there was net pickup of two seats.  Like Gilmore, it was one House seat, and one Senate seat.

Fresh off their victories, both Kaine and Gilmore began eying takeover of the legislature in the midterm elections.  Kaine eyed the Virginia Senate, while Gilmore eyed the House of Delegates.  Both Governors took the lead on candidate recruitment and funding, and spent record amounts of money.  Gilmore with his successful start of repealing the car tax, and Kaine with his excellent speech after Virginia Tech had souring popularity ratings, and they were ready to spend political capital to gain control of the legislature.

And election nights in 1999 and 2007 ended with almost identical images.  Jim Gilmore raising the hand of Speaker-Elect Vance Wilkins, while Tim Kaine raised the hand of Majority Leader-Elect Dick Saslaw.

Both Kaine and Gilmore were also eying national politics and trying to make their names as key Governors.  Gilmore was an early endorser of Governor George Bush, and Kaine was an early endorser of Senator Barack Obama.  The Bush-McCain primary was still very close coming into Virginia, while the Obama-Clinton primary was also in doubt as Virginia came up on the calender.  Gilmore led Bush to a victory in Virginia, a key victory when Bush needed it most.  Obama crushed Clinton in Virginia during his February run of Delegates that proved to be decisive after Clinton began winning later primaries.

Meanwhile, both Gilmore and Kaine watched as the Governors that put them into office began running for the U.S. Senate.  In 2000, with John Warner in the Senate a victory by George Allen would give Republicans control of both U.S. Senate seats.  This would give Gilmore no real path to anything in the future, a frustration for him.  Meanwhile, in 2008 with Jim Webb in the Senate and Mark Warner running, it was clear to Kaine he had no real path to anything in the future, a great frustration for him.

But neither Kaine or Gilmore was content with being a party uniter in Virginia, while helping their favorite Presidential candidates.  Both jumped into June Congressional primaries in open seats.  Gilmore went 1-1, helping Eric Cantor defeat Steve Martin, while coming up short with Paul Jost against Jo Ann Davis.  Kaine only had one open seat, and helped Gerry Connolly defeat Leslie Byrne.  It's worth noting that in 2000 George Allen decided to stay as a uniter within the Republican Party and did not get involved in either Congressional primary while he was running for the Senate- Mark Warner did the same in 2008.  This kept both former Governors as nearly unanimously popular within their own parties, while Gilmore and Kaine both began to languish without a united party behind them any longer.

Meanwhile, both Governors were watching their approval ratings sink- as the legislature defied them.  Gilmore's battle was with the Republican Senate, while Kaine's battle has been with the Republican House of Delegates.  But as gridlock began in Richmond, voters blamed the Governor.  Gilmore's car tax stalled, Kaine failed to get anything done on transportation, and opinion polls began to show the public turning against their formerly popular Governors.

And that's all we know so far.  By the end of that Presidential year, George Allen had won the other U.S. Senate seat in 2000 (giving Virginia two GOP Senators, and Gilmore no obvious moves), and we expect Mark Warner to do the same this year in 2008 for Kaine, giving him two Democratic Senators and no obvious moves. 

We also know Democrats united in 2001 with no primary for Mark Warner, while Republicans have united behind Bob McDonnell in 2009.  Gilmore failed to stop the party from splintering in a fight between Mark Earley and John Hager.  Kaine so far appears to be unable to stop the party from splintering in a fight between Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds.

These careers have remarkable parallels so far.  A bright future destroyed by jealousy for the Governor before them and totally insulated from popular opinion as their advisers huddle around and tell them how popular they are.  The only question left is, can Tim Kaine do anything to save himself from being the Democratic version of Jim Gilmore?   Or is it too late?

We'll know if history is repeating itself if Kaine is selected by a President Obama as DNC Chair for the last year of his Governorship...

The worst part of this parallel as Tim Kaine turns into a Democratic Jim Gilmore is that it means Bob McDonnell is the Republican Mark Warner.  This sucks.

---------------------------------------------------------

UPDATE TO TODAY:  Tim is DNC Chair, his numbers are tanking, and he is about to cost Democrats the Governorship tomorrow. 

The Democratic Gilmore, indeed.

Comments

[Bwana]

Ben-

Prescience has its price...

[Loudoun Insider]

So true!

[Gnarly]

This post never gets old. A brilliant analysis!!!

[JC]

On this eve of the Democratic apocalypse that is Bob McDonnell, enjoy this victory lap, Ben.

The next 4 years are seriously going to suck.

[Tatum]

Fascinating analysis!

Thanks Ben.

[dr_cathy]

JC - the D Party is broken. Tomorrow's elections will prove this fact. Carville and company keep spinning the Conservatives are dead. What you and so many other D's don't get, is that many of us Hillary D's, who were thrown under the DNC bus during the 2008 election, are former right of center Hillary D's. The middle and left of center D's, those of you who refer to yourselves as Progressives, aren't paying attention to the ground.

No gubernatorial D candidate would win Virginia tomorrow. None. Nada. Zip. Zilch. Zero.

Why? B/c the D Party has moved to the extreme left and those of us slightly right or left of center do not support this arm of the Party. It's that simple.

Think about the Reagan 80's. Slightly right of center R's were kicked to the curb of their party b/c of the extreme religious right movement w/i their own Party.

Well, it's the D's turn. The message from the center, you know those of us who have become unaffilliated due to the radical wings of our respective party's, is don't govern from the extremes.

Whether you like it or not, the national D's are legislating from an extreme position and the RNC can't see the forest through the trees - they are still wandering and will remain lost until they get back to their roots of conservatism minus the religious right element.

NY23 race gives you an insiders look at what is happening to both the D and R base. It's a classic example of what to expect from the 2010 elections. RINO's and liberal D's are going to have extremely tough races on their hands. And there isn't enough money in the world to tamp down the frustration and anger seething from both bases.

It's called "backlash" and it just so happens that the two sides kicked to the curb are teaming up right before everyone's eyes aka The Tea Party's but the msm is trying its damndest to ignore it and not to report on what is really going on.

For what it's worth, turn off CNN, MSNBC, Fox and all of the cable crappola and start educating yourself about what is really happening by visiting PUMA blogs, Centrist blogs, and even R & D blogs. These are the places real "on the ground" news is being reported for the most part. Do your own due diligence and learn.

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

Lots of interesting political gamesmanship parallels, but VERY FEW governance parallels.

When you ignore the biggest disparities in these two Governors--Tim Kaine was an effective, although not 100% successful meeting goals on transportation, Governor. Jim Gilmore crashed the staet budget and left most of the state agencies in crumbling condition, especially and most notably VDOT. Tim Kaine will be handing over a well-run, more efficient, and stronger operational state government, eight years after Jim Gilmore left it in shambles and put Virginia's AAA bond rating at grave risk.

That is the difference, folks.

Keep Virginia's government with hope of good management--elect a Democratic House of Delegates. I know, very unlikely, and also unlikely that any of our statewide candidates win.

But mark my words, in 2011, the VA voters will be experiencing a hefty dose of buyers' remorse, and after the "moderate" skin of McDonnell-Bolling-Cu....wait, there's no moderate skin on the last one....after voters see the REAL radical agenda of these canddiates, Democrats will roar back into power in the House...redistricting games or not!

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

One more thought--with expectations SO LOW for the Dems, any loss under 10% will be regarded as good performance for the Democrats! Also, I maintain that there will be more ticket-splitters than normal in NoVA. McDonnell won't win NoVA, but if the percentage is under 55% (including Loudoun and PWC) which it almost certainly seems it will, we will likely lose a few seats out west....but I still think we're likely to pickup Torian and Werkheiser but this will clearly hinge on GOTV strength of those campaigns...will Abbott displace Hamilton? Who knows, but in any other year, this would have been a certainty...

Why Democratic voters don't stay engaged is the biggest problem facing the Democratic Party in Virginia. If we kept even 20% of these people engaged, we would be winning this election....

[Bigvinu]

I think you might be on to something with these connections.

Ben Tribbett, The Liberal Glenn Beck?

[Chris]

Doug has a point about it not being entirely the same. I would say that Kaine is probably more popular than Gilmore was. Warner got elected on the idea that Gilmore was this terrible governor that nobody liked, while McDonnell has not been holding Kaine up that much as a campaign tool. Deeds and Earley, to continue the 01-09 comparisons, lost for very different reasons.

Warner ran on how bad Gilmore perceived to leave things. McDonnell as run hard against the national Democrats and against Creigh Deeds himself, not talking that much about Warner or Kaine. McDonnell has actually gone out of his way talking about how well he and Kaine worked together.

[SE VA MWC Alum]

This is an excellent post Ben! Tim Kaine should have read it after you posted it the first time

Chris & Doug-both of you have good points.

[edthemanva]

lets not forget that money bags Warner gave millions to the VA Democratic Party to fund a massive voter ID program and 20 some million for his own campaign!!
btw..the earth moved saturday when my union dad who voted for the first time in his life...for Obama.. and told me "Bush and you republicans took eight years to screw up this country and you expect this president to clean up the mess in eight weeks."
is voting a straight republican ticket tomorrow!!

[edthemanva]

my precinct in Fairfax County
411 Virginia Hills is a good bellweather precinct.
2008
OBAMA
Fairfax County 60.11 %
Virginia Hills 60.55
WARNER
FC 67.9%
VA Hills 67.56%
2006
WEBB
FC 58.9%
VA Hills 59.5%

now Pat Herrity carried my precinct in Feb. because the seniors turned out in this low turn out election. Seniors here vote two to one republican!!

so on election day check out thr results in 411 VA Hills

[Joel McDonald]

Tim Kaine isn't responsible for what's going to happen tomorrow. Terry McAuliffe, primary voters, and Creigh Deeds are responsible.

[Not Timothy Geithner]

The point about their administrations not being the same is relative. Kaine failed miserably on transportation both policy-wise and politically. We had the abuser fee fiasco, and then cut the estate tax and thought he could ask everyone else for more money. Kaine has done little to actually prepare the state for a curb to government spending in Virginia. Homeland security spending helped Warner out of the hole. Lets not kid ourselves about that.

Kaine has been utterly useless in preparing Virginia for a non-fossil fuel energy industry. He wants to build a research park to learn how to build windmills or something.

Now the budget has stayed in some relative order, but thats largely because so much of the tax base is a result of federal employment which is generally immune to the business cycle.

I think Kaine would have been run out of town if he governed a non-DC client state.

[edthemanva]

mmm Survey USA
seems to good to be true..includes leaners
McDonnell 58
Deeds 40

Bolling 57
Wagner 41

Cuccinelli 59
Shannon 39

straight ticket voting here...D's better hope voters split ticket in House races!

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=22eb96c2-b56c-4846-b25d-08a1aa177fb2

Ben if McDonnell does reach 58% then what..still 14?

[NotJoelMcDonald]

Joel McDonald once again comes through with a completely idiotic comment. Congratulations.

[McDonnell Wins Creigh Country 65-35]

Dr Cathy -

PUMA blogs are just a bunch of crazy cat ladies. Barack Obama has an approval rating in the low 50s. He's doing fine. He won 53% of the vote in 2008, though according to exit polls, she lost 95% of the vote for households with six or more cats.

The SPCA has been notified of your cat hoarding, and they will be confiscating your cats ASAP.

[dr_cathy]

Joel - TK has everything to do with tomorrow's tsunami! Who is in charge of the DNC? Who did the hit job in the Post on Deeds last week? Who had the audacity to say its Deeds fault b/c his camp wouldn't listen to them? Hello! The camp did listen and they are still going to lose!

To put the blame on Deeds, McAuliffe or Moran is sheer folly.

The blame for tomorrow's tsunami of Indy's voting for Bob, Christie and Hoffman lay at the door step of the DNC and WH. To beleive otherwise is political naivete.

[edthemanva/not Doug Mt. Vernon]

spin spin spin
Obama does NOT have approval ratings in the low 50's IN VIRGINIA!!
no current poll shows that!!

[dr_cathy]

Rasmussen is showing a negative 13% today. 0's PI has remained negative for nearly a month. What poll are you using. I'd love to see the numbers, sampling and CTs

[edthemanva/]

got my two Republican GOTV door hanger today and a VA GOP GOTV for call for McDonnell..sweet

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/VGOP_4.25x11Doorhanger.pdf

and Jim Moran you are moron. Thanks for doing your part in turning out the republican base and reminding voters that dirty Deeds has run a negative campaign!!

WASH POST

Jim Moran Calls GOP the "Taliban Ticket
"Always good copy, U.S. Rep. James P. Moran Jr. (D-Va.) likened the Republican ticket in Virginia this year to Afghanistan's radical Taliban movement in comments broadcast Sunday by WAMU radio.

At a get-out-the-vote rally in Fairfax County, Moran said: "I mean, if the Republicans were running in Afghanistan, they'd be running on the Taliban ticket as far as I can see."

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2009/11/jim_moran_calls_gop_the_taliba.html

[change]

Dimv,
Love it when you OD on the Obambi “blue pills”. Just like the administration you refuse to see these elections for the repudiation which they represent. The only “buyer’s remorse” is the one we are seeing from those who were taken in by Obambi’s promises.

Contrary to your belief, many Obambi voters have stayed “engaged”, however they now are making decisions based on the administration’s actions as opposed to their empty promises.
Remember the old “fool me once” line?

I actually never thought McD would win by double digits, that would be such a blowout that it seemed impossible to me (and I have stated that regularly). However, it now seems I could have been mistaken. No matter what the numbers, I believe a victory in VA, a victory in NY, and a close race in NJ should and will be a wake up call to any thinking moderate democrat or republican as they move towards votes on the extreme liberal agenda.

[Gretchen Laskas]

Oh come on, the parallels aren't even remotely the same. Gilmore with willful malice aforethought nearly bankrupted the Commonwealth during years of relative prosperity on the national level. Kaine has seen a decline in revenue that is in sync with national trends.

One way to tell -- after the Gilmore administration had finished, he and many of the people around him were toxic in the private sector. Many couldn't find positions that naturally befitted people who had connections and responsibilities that they had held.

Does anyone really believe that Kaine is going to be out of a job tomorrow, or that Democratic administrators of the past four years are going to floundering? I think not.

[McDonnell Wins Creigh Country 65-35]

Cathy -

I don't doubt that Obama's numbers are looking pretty poor in LIKELY VOTER samples of the 2009 election. Democrats aren't part of that equation because they can't stomach Creigh Deeds.

Look at registered voters in VA and you will find that Obama is at about 53%.

I can't believe you're on here touting PUMAs as a source of wisdom. PUMAs are the 0.5% of Hillary's supporters who bitterly lashed out against Obama after the primary (unlike the 99.5% of her supporters who are mature). Hillary Clinton herself thinks that PUMAs are mentally unstable.