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Dan

Give it a break. I voted for Leslie Byrne in the primary and have now realized that Congressman Connolly is actually an awesome man and a great congressman. Chill out.

Not Larry Sabato

Give what a break?

Bryan Scrafford

Ummm.. this isn't really breaking news. These rumors have been around for quite some time now and I know of at least three bloggers from both sides of the aisle who have reported on it.

Not Larry Sabato

I reported on it over a month ago Bryan. Here's the breaking news (I will speak slowly so you can understand).

Pat. Is. No. Longer. Considering. Running.

He. Is. Now. In. The. Race.

Will. Be. Announcing. Before. New. Years.

GAida

this means nothing except that democrats in the 11th will roll up their sleeves and work hard (more so) to get Gerry re-elected to Congress.

Now I wonder, will Fimian stay in and battle it out in a primary with Herrity? or back down? I doubt the latter

A Cup of Water

I believe he will back down. He's naieve but not stupid

Frank

No wonder NLS likes Herrity is a big government Reublican. He wants to spend more, tax more and is socially liberal.

VA Blogger

Frank, are you sure you're not thinking of a different Pat Herrity? Check out his latest letter to the editor and tell me he's a tax-and-spender:

http://www.tooconservative.com/?p=5880

Next Steps

When will Tim Hugo announce for Lt. Congressman?

anon

Folks the numbers are pouring in -- Obamacare is killing the Democratic brand in suburbs and rural areas nationwide

PWConservative

A Fimian vs. Herrity primary would be interesting to say the least. Either of the would beat Connolly given the current trends and both are great guys. I think Keith has the leg up in terms of putting in face time though.

Inquiring Mind

So Ben, are you endorsing Pat Herrity over Gerry Connolly? Will you tell your family and friends ion the 11th District to vote for whomever is the Republican nominee over Gerry Connolly? Inquiring minds want to know!

Not Michael Jackson

Keith can't beat Connolly. The staff he has now is f-ing retards.

They are some of the laziest and dumbest campaigners I've met.

LSUtotheend

There is a reason why Keith Fimian is going to lose to Boss Connolly and why Pat would win.

wow

A Fimian vs. Herrity primary would be interesting to say the least. Either of the would beat Connolly given the current trends and both are great guys. I think Keith has the leg up in terms of putting in face time though.

What pipe are you smoking - there is no way that Dems will sit by after the debacle of the Deeds race. Sorry - Gerry has double the name, a great record as a Freshman Congressman and will RUN a great campaign.

there is no way this is a tossup - Lean Dem by far.

wow

Ben - your "look over hear" analysis is just silly - trying to equate a School Board election that had all of a month to get out there and no name recognition to Gerry Connolly has has an extremely high favorable rating - and his NAME is synomis with Good governing against a guy that is only know in Springfield is just silly.

Everyone claims there is this "herrity" name recognition issue - Please - most of the voters in the 11th don't have a freakin clue of who his father was.

Loudoun Insider

Down with the Troll! This is great news. Gerry Connolly is a total asshole who does not deserve to be in any elected office. What a prick. A one termer prick.

Mike

I'm banking on Connolly's reelection. The Northern Virginia economy is still pretty robust thanks to all of the government contractors. I don't think there will be as much consternation from the voters eleven months from now once healthcare gets passed and the unemployment rate continues to drop.

Besides, what exactly has Herrity done on the BoS to merit election to the House?

Gretchen Laskas

I've lived in the 11th since 2001 and I still really don't know anything about Pat Herrity, excepth that his father was some big-time Republican. Most of the people that I know are new residents as well (especially in Prince William.)

And I simply don't see that people don't like Gerry Connolly (Ben excepted, of course.) Oh sure, we sometimes roll our eyes, but most everyone I know feels he's doing a fine job.

So I'm sticking with "Lean Dem" and not hitting the panic button any time soon.

Dan

Gretchen, I think your analysis is spot on. This race is not a toss up. Even if Herrity runs.

I'd be shocked to see Herrity get in this race. I can understand why many Republicans would love to see it. He would be a far stronger candidate than Fimian. But it is far more likely Herrity will follow in his daddy's footsteps and run for Chair.

I love the comment above calling Herrity a big government liberal. These RINO hunters are nuttier than I thought.

I expect them to repudiate Ronald Reagan as a big government liberal RINO any day now.

DanielK

I would be surprised to see Herrity stay in this race even if he does decide to jump in. Personally, I think he'll have a better shot at winning the the BOS Chairman position than Congress right now. I think that could be a perfect platform for him to use as a stepping stone to the seat. Even if he ran it'd probably be a little closer than if Fimian ran but I'd put this as a "Lean Dem." I think the only reason Ben put it toss up is for his dislike for Gerry!

Dan

Ben, doesn't like Connolly?

I never would have guessed!

Jane

My God. I'm stunned.

Not Michael Jackson

@Dan:


I think Ronald Reagan was a big government conservative. Nearly as bad as a big government liberal.

You can't be small gov't and pro-personal freedom if you start social wars like the drug war.


Goldwater in the house!!!! Goldwater 2012!

Brian W. Schoeneman

Gretchen, you obviously haven't met the man. He's one of the very few people in politics I've met and thought was completely unpersonable, and I've met pretty much everyone in the leadership of both parties.

As for Herrity being a big government liberal, that's probably one of the most hilarious things I've ever read. Please.

I hope Fimian and Herrity can work this out between the two of them so there's no need for a primary.

Pat Herrity Supporter

Too bad Herrity is actually telling people flat out that you're wrong and he's not running for Congress. I guess your piece of crap blog is going even further away from any sort of credibility.

Dan

I would bet dollars to doughnuts that Herrity will not run against Connolly.

Phil Chroniger

Herrity would probably be better served to go against a lukewarm Dem like Connolly in a year that is shaping up to go in the GOP's favor already.

Gretchen Laskas

Brian -- I'm not speaking here about Connolly in particular (and I'm assuming, given that I know you're a Republican, that you're speaking about Connolly in your post and not Pat Herrity!!) but you and I both know that who the person is and the perception of that person by the people he/she represents often have little enough to do with each other. Plenty of scoundrels accomplish what their constitutents wish them to do, and plenty of good people get thrown out. Politics!

Bruce

People talking about a Fimian v Herrity PRIMARY are premature not because of candidates - but because the 11th District Republicans haven't decided if a Primary or a Convention will be used to pick their nominee.

They vote this week. Results may impact who stays in and/or who gets in/out.

Gretchen Laskas

I can understand (even if I philosophically disagree) with a state-wide convention over a primary, but could some of the serious Republicans who post here explain why thet would us it for a more localized race?

Recovering Moderate

Gretchen,

At least one voting member of the 11th CD adheres to the belief that primaries are not only inadvisable, but unconstitutional. I don't happen to agree, but I have tremendous respect for the gentleman who does.

As for what the committee as a whole will decide, who knows? Some are pro-convention, some pro-primary, and we'll just have to see where things land. I think there are compelling reasons for either, though I don'thave time at present to go into them (no doubt someone will).

Gretchen Laskas

EN- thank you!

Gretchen Laskas

(Should be RM - tiny iPhone keys!)

Not E. Blackburn Moore

"Just this year, Connolly's Campaign Chairman John Jennison became the first Democrat at any level of federal, state or local government to lose Providence District since 1971."

That would certainly be news to the many Republicans who have carried Providence, even if only those winning in contested, districtwide races are considered.

Ronald Reagan, Tom Davis, John Warner, Mychele Brickner, John Frey, Carl Peed, Wayne Huggins, Mark Earley all carried Providence District, along with many others.

As they say, you're entitled to your own opinions, but not to your own facts.

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