Analysis of Marshall-Gate

Guest Post by Not A Radical Centrist

Bob Marshall is a very smart man. That’s what his supporters run around saying anyway. They believed so much in Marshall that they had hopes (read pipe dreams) that the Prince William delegate would win the Republican nomination in 2012 to take on Senator Jim Webb.

No more. Marshall’s statewide aspirations went spiraling down the toilet the moment he suggested disabled children are God’s or Nature’s vengeance for abortions. It’s still shocking to think this “smart” man actually said or inferred that.

But as often is the case in politics, it isn’t so much the crime that unravels a political career as it is the cover up. And Bob Marshall and his team of social crusaders have screwed that up so royally that it makes George Allen’s Macaca Recovery Tour look like a brilliant example of crisis communications. (As an aside, ironically it’s George Allen’s entourage that are enjoying Marshall’s fall more than anyone. Allen’s team viewed Marshall as at least an obstacle to the 2012 nomination).

Back to Marshall.

As the story of his malevolent comments went viral, Marshall had some choices to make. Apologize and let time heal the wounds or mount a defense. Marshall apparently decided there was a middle ground where he could put out a non-apology apology by suggesting that no one who ever knew him would believe he would “intend to communicate” that disabled children are God’s punishment for prior abortions. That’s what Marshall said in his first statement, but that seems to contradict Marshall’s second statement which includes a transcript of what Marshall actually said. This is part of the transcript from Marshall’s website.

“The number of children who are born subsequent to a first abortion who have handicaps has increased dramatically. Why? Because when you abort the first-born of any, Nature takes its vengeance on the subsequent children. In the Old Testament, the first-born of every being, animal and man, was dedicated to the Lord. There’s a special punishment Christians would suggest. …”

That paragraph above quoting Marshall, yeah, that reads to me like Marshall intended to communicate that disabled children are Nature’s punishment for prior abortions, and Christian’s should view that as a special punishment.

The second Marshall statement, much like the first, is highly defensive. “I never made this statement,” Marshall says. After a few more non-apology apologies, Marshall suggests he was trying to make a point when not intending to communicate anything. From his statement “My purpose was to show how authentic medical findings demonstrate that abortion has consequences …”

So, you did intend to communicate that disabled children are punishment for abortions or not?

If the contradictory and defensive public statements coming from Marshall weren’t sloppy enough, for some reason Marshall’s public relations guy--Bob Maistros for those not wanting to repeat Marshall’s mistakes--decided to put Marshall on some sort of media tour. He was on WTOP, FOX 5 News, WMAL, gave an interview to Talking Points Memo and God knows whatever media outlets--the whole time issuing various incoherent defenses for his position and mixed messages

His talking point seems to be “I didn’t say that, but it’s true, just look at this study.”

Does Marshall’s team really think that trying to explain the details of some random VCU study is going to come across well in a 5 minute radio interview or a 20 second sound-bite on Fox 5? I sure hope Bob Maistros knows better than that.

And the most recent development in Marshall’s earned media tour? The delegate went to the House floor to demand a correction from the news outlet that broke the story. I’m sure they’ll jump right on that because Marshall certainly would never intend to communicate that disabled children are a punishment for prior abortions ….

At this point Marshall needs to unequivocally apologize and get this over worth to save what remains of his 2012. But I’m guessing that won’t happen. I think Marshall believes what he said is true and he’s too proud to admit he’s wrong.

And that’s just not smart.

Comments

[Steve Vaughan]

You're right. He's kept the story alive by floundering around. He should have said "I misspoke. The words I used didn't convey my meansing. I don't think disabled children are a punishment."
Then, he should have shut up.

[Gordon Sumner]

George Allen is serious about 2013, not '12.

[Dan]

You may be right about 2013 rather than 2012 for the Allen comeback attempt. He probably realizes the White House ain't gonna happen and being governor likely has more appeal than a return to the Senate.

[Spock]

Delegate Bruce Roemmelt

[change]

Strange how some think “nature” can turn tadpoles into humans, but can not have an affect on reproduction activity when the “natural” cycle is interrupted by human actions.

Humans can affect the environment of the entire globe by their actions but our actions on our own bodies can have no consequence?

We can eat the wrong things, drink too much, smoke, not exercise, drink too many sodas and the government wants to tax or regulate these behaviors because they are “bad” for us. But quote a study that says abortions have an effect and the entire liberal world tilts on it’s axis.

Maybe if he had said “mother earth” provides consequences to that which she sees as against her natural order, he would have gotten a pass... naaaahhh

In the words of the great thinker “spock” all of this seems “illogical”

[never jerked off in public]

change, apparently you and Marshall are on the same page then. You both think disabled children are God's punishment for abortion.

[change]

5:14
Apparently you can’t read.

[HisRoc]

change,

The problem is that the study that Marshall is citing says nothing close to what he claims it says. It finds a coincidental relationship (as opposed to a causative relationship) between prior terminated pregnancies (both abortions and miscarriages) and low birth weight or premature birth in subsequent births. However, the study did not select out other causative factors such as prenatal care, smoking, alcohol usage, age of the mother, and too many other factors to enumerate here. And, while low birth weight and premature birth can lead to complications, they do not necessarily happen. So, saying that the VCU study proves that an abortion causes birth defects in subsequent births is false.

Too often, politicians and other advocates of a particular point of view are aided and abetted by either outright fraudulent "studies" or by misrepresentation of studies. Both ends of the political spectrum do it with abandonment. Marshall is using misrepresented science to proclaim a conclusion that isn't proven. Harry Reid did the same thing yesterday during the Health Care Summit when he repeated the discredited canard that "40,000 people each year die because they don't have health insurance." That factoid was based on a biased report published by two doctors at Harvard Medical School without peer review. Their study was based on such a small sample that it had a statistical probability of error approaching +/- 100% and it made no effort to normalize for extraneous factors not related to health insurance. For example, someone who died of suicide or accidental causes was weighted the same as someone who died of undiagnosed cancer, if they both were uninsured. Nevertheless, the Harvard report quickly gained traction with those who favor universal health care. Such is the way that false science gains a foothold in political discourse and no amount of follow on studies can disabuse the true believers.

[Spock]

Trying to rationalize a possible flaw in a medical procedure with archaic human superstition is "illogical".

[PWConservative]

Spock

Roemmelt is an unintelligent babbling freak. Please make sure he gets nominated next year.

[KPY]

PWC, I'll take babbling over a crusading xenophobe.

[www.google.com/accounts/o8/id?id=AItOawkYqVwrKwZRlpD2yAerf60smeBA4DpEeUc]

Change apparently cannot "read" or think.

[Loudoun Insider]

Maistros was the PR guy for the horrendous Jack Ryan and Steve Snow campaigns in Loudoun County. No big surprise that Marshall isn't looking good with his "help".

[truthnjustice]

PW Conservative, Change, do you really think Marshall deserves to remain in office? Have you not noticed that the majority of those petitioning for his ouster are themselves Christian conservatives? He managed to unite both the left and right against his misfire of delusional and demogogic rhetoric -- and its time for Sideshow Bob to put his political career out to pasture or face the political fallout

[change]

Hisroc,
We agree that most people (and virtually all pol’s) use whatever data bets fits their argument; and that some (Al Gore comes to mind) will even make up data to sell their agenda. I hope my broader argument was not lost on the focus of a single study.

google,
From reading the in depth analysis you posted, you clearly prove your keen ability to understand the debate and put forth your ideas in an orderly and concise manner. All should marvel at your great wisdom and skillful journalistic capabilities. NOT.

Actually, your posts are more reminiscent of the 12 year old who uses the “I’m rubber your glue” approach to debate.
Undeniably concise, but not very mature, convincing or on salient.
I wish you the best as you move on to secondary school. My only advice would be to stay away from the debate club.

[change]

tnj,
I don’t know of any course for “ouster” in these circumstances.
Having seen the entire video and subsequent statements, I believe that the man has some convictions and does not mind presenting them publically and honestly. I actually find that refreshing (even if I might disagree) because it will enable people to vote for or against him (and his ideas) in an informed manner.

I like that a whole lot better than politicians who say that they will act one way and govern completely the opposite (Obama comes to mind). The time will come when his constituents will be able to make that decision.

[truthnjustice]

I don't find Marshall at all refreshing engaging in vicious offensive generalizations that indiscriminately target whole categories of individuals, even many who share the majority of his core values

[www.google.com/accounts/o8/id?id=AItOawkYqVwrKwZRlpD2yAerf60smeBA4DpEeUc]

Change:

In a battle of wits, you would not even qualify as a halfwit; possibly a nitwit though!

Continue on teabagging!

[change]

tnj,
Apparently you misunderstood my comment. What I refer to as “refreshing” is someone (any party) who will truthfully state their opinion instead of hiding their true intentions to get elected.

For example, I always respected D.P. Moynihan even though I did not always agree with him. Unfortunately, most Pols now want to pretend that they are “centrists” and “conservative” because most of the voters are not extremists (left or right). Then when they get elected they move to the extreme.

_______
google, another well thought retort, I continue to be impressed by your supreme intellect.
Next time you might try the always victorious rejoinder “I know you are but what am I”.

Seriously though, you really should try posting something that is at least somewhat on topic instead of the baseless personal attacks. I am surprised that Ben has not tired of your childishness.

[www.google.com/accounts/o8/id?id=AItOawkYqVwrKwZRlpD2yAerf60smeBA4DpEeUc]

Change:

Personal attacks? Pot meet kettle! All your posts ever consist of are personal attacks and fabrications, You can dish out the crap but are too thin-skinned to take any criticsm. Go back to your tea bagging friends and apply your concern troll whoring there!

All the paranoid racist friends will welcome with you with open arms and give you your hood and white sheet.

Ben prefers posters who are childish; that is why he has tolerated your teabagging nonsense for so long.

[change]

google,

Let’s take a look at your posts on this thread only: (minus the most recent that is also not on subject)

“Change apparently cannot "read" or think.”
“In a battle of wits, you would not even qualify as a halfwit; possibly a nitwit though!
Continue on teabagging!”

As anyone can see, you seem to have some personal issue with me or you lack the ability to post any substantive thought so you find it amusing to post personal (and might I add childish) attacks.
Sorry if you are embarrassed by your own inadequacies but I have not been so “thin skinned” that I have resorted to simple personal attacks on anyone with any intelligent comment and I am sorry you do not fall in that category.

As much as I have enjoyed our off subject banter, I think it best for all that I will henceforth, only reply to your self-indulgent posts if they also include at least some input on the subject of conversation.

I am sure this will provide great relief to those who read this blog (although many might have found it as amusing as I have to follow your senseless ranting).
Best of all it will provide you an opportunity to prove your ability to post something intelligent on the topic being discussed.

If the above is too complex I will try to simplify it for you;
if you want to call me names and get a response you must, from now on, first post some opinion on the topic being discussed .

[www.google.com/accounts/o8/id?id=AItOawkYqVwrKwZRlpD2yAerf60smeBA4DpEeUc]

Self-indulgent? Pot meet kettle!

[www.google.com/accounts/o8/id?id=AItOawkYqVwrKwZRlpD2yAerf60smeBA4DpEeUc]

An example of the substantive
and intelligent posts from the brilliant one:

"Steve,
If the “future” is that everyone turns gay, it won’t last too long.

Posted by: change | February 26, 2010 at 03:38 PM"

And a challenge to Change's
brilliant and insightful post:

"Change: Are you really that dumb?"

"How does not discriminating against gays turn "everyone" gay in the future? Are you that insecure about your sexuality that you think other people being able to live their lives freely will make you "change?""

I rest my case!

[notbobmarshall]

From a conservative Christian,

Bob Marshall is an embarrassment and has been for quite a while. He is bad on property rights and other core values and needs to be gone.

[Term Papers]

These posts keep getting better and better keep posting.