Jay O'Brien Withdraws- Engulfed In "Shoplifting Scandal"

That headline might be a little over the top, but this is a pretty entertaining story.

For those of you who have never been to Clifton- it isn't much like other parts of Northern Virginia.  To get to the town of Clifton you have to drive for about 5 miles on a winding road with a narrow one lane going each way.  This area was never developed because it lies west of 123 and borders on the Occoquan River that separates Fairfax and Prince William.  Years ago, Fairfax required any developments here to have at least 5 acres per home, in order to ensure less development around the Occoquan, which supplies the drinking water to most of Fairfax.

The political impact of that has been to create very high priced properties (5 acres in Fairfax County- think about that).  Of course that has turned Clifton and Fairfax Station into absolute GOP strongholds in Northern Virginia.  When that Delegate seat opened up in 1991, Jay O'Brien easily grabbed it by crushing George Barker- then crushed him again in a 1993 rematch.  By the end of the decade, Jay was regularly beating each Democrat who ran against him in the House District by a 2-1 margin.  Republicans noticed his electoral strength, and drew a Senate seat for him in the 2001 redistricting that would come open in the 2003 Senate elections.  When the incumbent resigned a year early, Jay grabbed the seat in a 2002 special election by a 58-42 margin, and then was re-elected to a four year term 57-43 in 2003.  Jay was an electoral badass who had made it 16 years without ever having a race within 10 points.  These winning margins are one of the reasons Jay mistakingly felt electorally comfortable enough to vote against Mark Warner's state saving budget in 2004- which was the beginning of the end of his political career.

In the next election Jay met 2007 and the anti-Bush wave that crushed Northern Virginia.  Despite a weak Democratic candidate in Barker- who was back after a 14 year electoral and dental hiatus- Democrats targeted this district for takeover after it had been carried heavily by Jim Webb in 2006.  Once he was caught in the first close race of his career, it became obvious that Jay didn't quite know what to do in this type of election.  The final results edged to the Democrats 19,892-19,131- which was the decisive race in the Dems winning a 21-19 Senate majority.

So it wasn't much of a surprise when Jay began telling people he would run again in 2011- all the way back in 2008 after he realized the free summer Wolftrap tickets were only for current legislators.  No one knows for sure what the district will look like after the next redistricting, but its fair to say that Jay would have begun the campaign as the narrow favorite if the lines were unchanged.  So it was no surprise when major Republicans- including Bob McDonnell had already endorsed Jay's comeback bid. 

Contesting Jay for the nomination was Scott Martin.  Scott is an assistant dean at George Mason- and is best known for his run for the Fairfax School Board in 2003.  Despite running in Springfield District- the most Republican in the county- Scott became one of only two Republican candidates in the history of the district to fail to win election since its creation in 1951.  I remember seeing Scott campaign at some back to school nights- creepy is the only word I can use to describe his interactions with voters.  Scott's loss in 03 shared the ballot with O'Brien's win- here's how pathetic Scott's numbers were in the overlapping precincts:

Clifton
Jay O'Brien wins 964-387
Scott Martin wins 648-573

Fairfax Station
Jay O'Brien wins 825-405
Scott Martin wins 574-549

Woodyard
Jay O'Brien wins 527-262
Scott Martin loses 345-395

Irving
Jay O'Brien wins 545-389
Scott Martin loses 370-525

Silverbrook
Jay O'Brien wins 621-327
Scott Martin loses 413-484

West Springfield
Jay O'Brien wins 433-359
Scott Martin loses 276-480

Fountainhead
Jay O'Brien wins 791-350
Scott Martin wins 563-522

Newgate
Jay O'Brien wins 933-367
Scott Martin loses 574-649
 
With everything going for him, Jay made a huge mistake last week.  At the Davis General Store in Clifton which had Martin material on the table- he purchased a newspaper and stuffed the Martin lit into the paper so it would no longer be available to be seen.  The "shoplifting" was caught on tape- and Martin supporters began spreading rumors of "pressing charges". 

I heard about this Monday, and interviewed both Jay and the store owner.  Jay basically said the flyers were on the counter for people to take- so he took them.  The store owner told me that it was all captured on video- and that this literature had disappeared twice before- and she was going back to the old tapes to see if that was Jay also.

I asked the owner of the Davis General Store if she would provide me with the video tapes- and I already had music picked out for the Youtube I was going to give you all this week.  But McDonnell PAC Director Phil Cox, who managed the Governor's race last year for McDonnell intervened and began a private push to force Jay to withdraw to avoid any embarrassment for the Governor of endorsing someone caught stealing campaign flyers on tape.

So Republicans are going to replace an almost perfect twenty year electoral history for a creepy loser like Scott Martin whose own electoral performance was the worst of any GOP candidate in that area in history- over some free campaign flyers being removed from a counter?  Does this sound absurd to anyone else? 

This isn't the first major mistake Cox has made in Fairfax this year.  During the Steve Hunt-Dave Marsden special election, Cox demanded that any money the Governor provided Hunt be spent on turning out the "McDonnell list" and not the "Cuccinelli list"- even though the special election was in Cuccinelli's old Senate District!  The result of this decision was soft GOP turnout- and an upset victory for the Democrats.  Then in the special election for Marsden's house seat, Cox made the call that Kerry Bolognese wasn't going to win over Eileen Filler-Corn, and allowed her to outspend Bolognese almost 2-1.  Again, Cox was wrong in his electoral guidance as Filler-Corn won by only 41 votes- almost certainly a win for the GOP if they had matched the Democrats dollar for dollar.

Now after this crazy week, it appears that O'Brien is subsiding to the pressure and withdrawing.  The result of this is simple- an almost certain re-election for George Barker- and quite possibly- Democratic control of the Senate for another four years starting in 2011.  So on behalf of Democrats across the state, let me just say...

THANK YOU PHIL COX!!!

Comments

[Spock]

Nobody wants to see 7+ minutes of teabagger blabber, try to get that shoplifting video!

I need a good laugh for the weekend while the biker gangs keep the neighborhood up all night with their loud engines.

[haha]

I love how democrats think theft of an opponent's campaign material isn't a big deal.

[not anyone in particular]

yes we tend to think ripping off a state pension fund is a big deal

[Tom]

What O'Brien did was not only theft but also an infringement of the store owner's 1st Amendment right to free speech. As such it should be viewed as an attempt to subvert the Constitution -- in other words treason.

It is unfortunate that there were not enough witnesses around to secure a conviction on a treason charge. However at the very least the video is enough evidence to get a conviction on some kind of theft charge. If he doesn't get serious jail time it will be further proof that there is a double standard, one for us little guys and one for the well connected good ol' boys.

[steve vaughan]

Tom:
Treason? REally? You got treason out of this? You might want to consider cutting back on the caffeine. And the Fox News.
It's campaign mischief. Hell, it's not even particularly interesting campaign mischief.

[haha]

how do you get charged with theft when you take something that is offered for free?

[Not Larry Sabato]

Steve, I am operating under the assumption that Tom was being funny.

[steve vaughan]

NLS, okay. Sometimes it's hard to tell. People are prone to fly into fits of righteous indignation here on fairly flimsy pretexts.:-)

[Tom Cruise]

Re: O'Brien's 1st Amendment hangup, isn't the whole Tea Party thing something about restoring us to a "Constitutional Democracy."

I guess O'Brien only wants certain parts of the Constitution.

[Ghost of Henry Howell]

Hard to decide if this is comedy or tragedy.

[Peter]

This is ridiculous. This is a non-issue becoming THE issue. This happens all the time, and there is nothing wrong with it. That's like saying anytime a support of a candidate takes a free flier for their opponent, that's stealing. And in fact, this is the case exactly.

You can't steal something being offered for free.

Very sad to see Jay go. 20 years of service doesn't end like this. I really wish he would see this for what it is: a non-issue.

[Stewart]

I believe there is statute against stealing free newspapers (1st amendment grounds) -- you can take one, you can't take them all. What's to stop someone from taking all the free papers at a grocery store if you don't like their editorial views?

[Gretchen Laskas]

A most entertaining story, indeed!

[local gop]

NLS,
would you agree that Martin's low numbers in 2007 were partially because SB races do not have the same profile as a Senate race, and there is no party letter next to the name? SB races also have much higher drop off rates than a Senate race.

Sometimes non-partisan candidates can do a good job tying themselves to a party (Patty Reed) and then they can do a bad job of it (John Jennison).

[Brian W. Schoeneman]

This is simply ridiculous. What's next? Someone getting pressured to leave a race because he took down an opponent's yard sign?

Is that seriously where we're at now?

[haha]

Ben do you have affirmative knowledge that Jay in fact withdrew? I haven't heard this elsewhere

[Not Larry Sabato]

haha, I have affirmative knowledge that he was telling people he was going to withdraw today. However, I've also heard since these stories have been published there has been a big backlash in support of Jay and people asking him to stay in. Waiting to hear what the current status is.

[Not Larry Sabato]

local gop- I don't think so- he ran a lot worse than the at-large Republican School Board candidates also.

[anon]

If Jay stays in I bet the video comes out. That would make a fine cable commercial. He would be laughed off the planet. Voters would think he is petty, weak and untrustworthy as well as stupid.

If Jay stays in, this story will make the MSM.

[Spock]

....get the video...get the video...get the video...get the video...

[Not Larry Sabato]

anon, You think voters who have been with Jay for 20 years will flip because of a grainy video of him stealing campaign flyers? Are you insane?

But what if Scott is caught on tape picking his nose? I bet Jay goes back to winning 80-20 after that "development".

[Laura G.]

Time: Fall 2003
Place: Outside gates to CVHS football game
Characters: Laura Granruth and Jay O'Brien

The scene begins with Laura and Jay standing side-by-side greeting voters as they enter the stands for the CVHS football game. Jay is on the right and Laura is on the left (no pun intended, but it works). It is early and the crowd is light, but steady. As the crowd builds, Jay's cell phone rings and he steps away from the gate to take the phone call. He is gone for about 5-10 minutes. While he is gone, the number of people arriving for the games grows, and Laura has drifted to the right as she maneuvers in the increasingly busy crowd.
In the distance, Jay finishes his phone call and makes his way back to the entrance gate. He walks directly up to Laura and says, "You're in my spot." Laura looks at him and smiles, thinking no one "owns" a spot in front of the stadium gate. Jay repeats, "You're in my spot". Laura realizes that Jay is serious; she takes one step to the left. Jay steps back into his "spot", and they both resume greeting voters.
So, Jay can steal lit, but just don't steal his spot!
The End

[local gop]

just got an email from jay obrien...he dropped out of the race.

[Not Jay O'Brien]

Dear Friends,

After much thought and prayer, I have decided to withdraw my candidacy from the 39th State Senate campaign for 2011.

Unfortunately, recent developments in my business will require more of my attention than I had previously anticipated. It is clear to me that I cannot continue a campaign for office without the full concentration it deserves.

I cannot begin to thank all the supporters who have assisted me over the many years I have served in public office; I am grateful to them beyond words. As I begin a new chapter in my life, I will never forget the friends and colleagues who have devoted themselves, often at great sacrifice, to make Virginia and America a better place.

Sincerely,

Jay O'Brien

[PWConservative]

See Ben. It's "business developments" not flyer stealing, thats a relief. (End sarcasm)

[Spock]

I still want to see that video...

[Lovettsville Lady]

Totally disgusting that Jay was driven out of this race. Taking FREE fliers is NOT shoplifting. Is it any wonder that we can't get enough good people to run for office? Who would subject themselves and their families to this kind of nonsense?!

[Ham]

There has to be a second shoe to drop in this case. A year is plenty of time to clean up a minor problem like taking a few too many fliers. Did he make a scene or shove someone who tried to stop him?

[Mike]

Clifton is Tim Hugo and Pat Herrity country, but I think that as the economy continues to improve and as McDonnell's plan to pay for transportation with non-existent offshore oil leases collapses, Barker will keep his seat next year.

[Brian W. Schoeneman]

I've talked to a couple of folks close to the campaign, and they've confirmed this is basically the reason. I think it's dumb. But it was Jay's decision.

[Not Ben Tribett's PR Rep.]

Where are the Post girls on this? Can't they even get close to getting the information has.

They are still re-printing press releases about how McDonnell is appointing some higher ed committee.

Here we have the number one race in the VA state senate - current Senator against former Senator and they can't get anything.

Ben Tribett breaks another story. Give the man credit.

[Franken O'Reilly]

What Jay O'Brien understands that many of his supporters do not is that there is more than one video of him looking like some sort of perp stealing campaign lit.

He is on video doing this more than once.

If a picture is worth a thousand words a few videos are worth a novella.

[Spock]

NotBen Tribbetts... (yadda yadda yadda) Ben now needs to get that video...

Ben offer the store owner advertising space on this site and git them vids!!!!

Seriously!

You'll make Ubermann....Maddow...

[Brian W. Schoeneman]

Franken O'Reilly, who cares? No rational person is going to care about that when trying to decide who should represent them in the Senate.

Everyone believes that little dirty tricks like this happen in every race. And considering it's over a year until the primary, no one is going to remember this incident by then. It's dumb.

[Not Brian W. Schoeneman]

Brian,

Are you REALLY that dense?

REALLY?

If those videos come out, Jay isn't just out of the race, he becomes a community laughing stock. His business gets hurt, his family gets humiliated, and he'll be known as "that politician stealing stuff on camera" to thousands of people he's never even met. He won't be able to go anywhere without people recognizing him for all of the wrong reasons.

Have you ever seen the movie "Election"? It'd be a little bit like that. And it amazes me that someone can have their head so far up the ass of the DC politico culture not to grasp how normal people out there view a politician like this. They become punchlines, Brian.

Jay's decision to drop out was the honorable one for not only his campaign, but his family.

And if you can't understand why that is both the honorable and rational course of action, I honestly don't know what to tell you.

[Spock]

Not Brian- the best part is that O'Brian got suckered into all the tea bagger BS.

That movement alone is on the decline.

But to see a TB movement politician try to suppress the 1st amendment on camera (on more than one occasion?) magnifies the hypocrisy of the movement with all their cheap blabber about The Constitution this and The Constitution that.

The T-baggers could take a nice big hit with this.

[Brian W. Schoeneman]

I'm not dense at all. And what I'm also not is trying to make something out of nothing, which is what you seem to be doing.

Campaign dirty tricks happen all the time. Does anyone think the wind is responsible for yard signs mysteriously disappearing all the time? Campaign staff slashing tires of the other sides GOTV vehicles? It happens all the time. If it doesn't cause property damage, no one should care. It's the cost of doing business.

So what if Jay took a bunch of fliers. You're blowing this entire thing out of proportion. Democratic candidates can be offered bribes to get out of the race and no one cares, but someone takes a bunch of free fliers and their life is over? Spare my the hyperbolic nonsense.

Having spoken to a few more people, I've learned that the business reason is the primary reason why he's dropping out and that makes me feel much better, because this whole "scandal" is a complete non issue and if you think it is, you're letting partisanship cloud your judgment.

As for suppressing the first amendment, c'mon. If Scott Martin's only way of getting his message out is leaving fliers on counters in stores, he's in trouble.

[Spock]

Brian- the point is, the store owner asked him to put the flyers back, and O'Brian wouldn't and still ran out with literature the store owner wanted to give out for a candidate to the public

Is it illegal?

Probably not, does it make O'brian look like an arse?

Yes, and it looks like he is trying to foil his opponents rights as well as the rights of the store owner of free speech.

He does not look like someone who supports the Constitution or what it stands for, in fact he looks quite the opposite.

Proves the point that the T-bagger movement is full of crap and needs to be exposed for it.

[Brian W. Schoeneman]

Spock, if being an "arse" disqualifies one from running for office, why is Gerry Connolly a Congressman?

The store owner gets more flyers and there you go. Problem solved.

All of these movements are made up of individuals - you can't extrapolate to the entire group what one person who may or may not be a member does to the entire group. That's nuts.

[Someone who's been around a while]

Scott Martin won't be the nominee. Those who were involved in 2003 remember what an abysmal campaign he ran, as Ben described in the original post. Those who have gotten involved since then barely know who Martin is since he has done little for other candidates. There are better-qualified and more well-regarded Republicans who wouldn't have challenged O'Brien but are now likely to consider running. Already names of potential candidates other than Scott Martin are circulating and there's some strong sentiment that he should not be the nominee.

[Spock]

Brian... Brian... Brian...you know as well as I do that a video of a T-bagger politician stealing a stack of his opposition's lit from a store and even after the store owner trying to stop him is a PRIME TIME WTF moment.

It will put a nice little thorn into the side of the dying T-bagger movement.

You can try to play the rational rhetoric angles, but you know I am right as rain on this one.

[philrodo]

You're plain wrong that O'Brien's demise came after he voted against Warner's largest tax increase in the history of VA. He lost, because his own voting record caught up with him and Republicans got fed up with him.

By the way, you missed the irony in this story. O'Brien had been a strong supporter of Red Light Cameras. It's indeed ironic that a surveillance camera was responsible for his undoing... LOL

[Anonymous]

Philrdo- good point.

[Not Pat Herrity]

This just in

Pat Herrity announces his candidacy for the 39th Senate Seat.

[Laura G.]

Maybe this story is dying, but if Jay dropped out because of the flyers then maybe that is a good thing. I never want yard signs to disappear, flyers to be stolen (did Brian say tires slashed?--whole different thing). To me, these are sort of the quality of life issues that we all recognize that if you do not stop the things that seem little and insignificant, then they lead into the bigger and more serious things of no holds barred in politics. The little things are wrong (on both (all three?) sides; the bigger things are wrong. The candidates set the tone for their supporters to follow.

[Rtwng Extrmst]

"So what if Jay took a bunch of fliers. You're blowing this entire thing out of proportion. Democratic candidates can be offered bribes to get out of the race and no one cares, but someone takes a bunch of free fliers and their life is over? Spare my the hyperbolic nonsense. "

Brian, while I agree its hyperbole to call this shoplifting. It's also a horrible move on Obrien's part. I really like Jay Obrien. I think he was an excellent state senator and would have been again. However it's underhanded acts like this that put a sour taste in people's mouths and make it more difficult for them to support him. The fact that others do it and don't get caught is not an excuse. People want representatives that are honest. Jay would have been better to place his own literature there rather than to take the literature.

Is there any way Tim Hugo might run for this seat?

[Not Larry Sabato]

Tim Hugo is House Caucus Chair now, would be weird if he ran for the Senate, don't you think?

[God Family Country]

Have known Jay for a very long time - he ended his political career by ending the game years ago. Can't count the interactions (church, events/parades, sports, shopping) when Jay spent his time withdrawn, headphones in, cell phone to ear, hat and sunglasses on and/or newspaper in face. He would 'flip' the proverbial switch when he wanted to be 'on' and gladhand...and you could never tell whether you would encounter Jay Go the Other Way or Jay Let Me Stand in Your Way. He is missing the key of public service...the 'service' part. Things expedient to getting him what he wanted, he's there...things on the mind of constituents, not so much. Not saying Martin is better (he does have an odd affect), but don't think he is disingenuous like Jay. We need passion and political fortitude...know anyone?

[Not R Guy]

Do we really give Scott Martin a pass for what he did. Isn't this a little childish (blackmailing someone out of the race)? Forget about J, but can anyone shed light on Scott and his background? Does he even have a shot at winning?