Outlook: Likely Republican
The 26th district is all of the City of Harrisonburg and parts of Rockingham County in the Shenandoah Valley. Democrats have nominated a smart, energetic candidate in Kai Degner, the Mayor of Harrisonburg, while Republicans nominated Tony Wilt from Rockingham County. There's always a chance for an upset in a special election like this- and Degner is geographically from the right area in the district to potentially spike turnout in "blue areas". But this seat is very red, and the "conservative" Independent running Carolyn Frank is also from Harrisonburg, and is unlikely to pull many votes from Wilt in the Republican parts of Rockingham County. Democrats hopes are two fold here- Degner needs massive turnout, while Wilt must totally fail to get his votes out in the County. It's hard to see that all happening, although anything is possible in a special election if turnout is low enough.
Even if Degner were to win though it doesn't really matter. This would be a very easy seat to tear up or eliminate in redistricting, which makes Ward Armstrong's decision to spend any resources here very difficult to understand. Of course, last November Ward lost 8 incumbent Democratic seats in the House in one election- the all time record for either party in either body- so it's probably better not to analyze his decisions in a rational manner.
27th District
Outlook: Safe Republican
This is the more interesting special election going on tomorrow, although the results may be wider between the candidates. The 27th is based in Chesterfield County, and the only seat in Chesterfield that voted for Barack Obama for President. With a special election opportunity, Democrats got a once in a generation opportunity to break into the heart of Chesterfield County with a Delegate. Their efforts to recruit local Supervisor fell through, so as you might expect from Ward Armstrong and his pathetic crybabies in leadership- they went home and refused to play here. This left Democratic nominee- and Chesterfield Planning Commission Chair William Brown stranded with no money- and Democratic leadership "refusing to return his phone calls". Obviously that gives the election to the Republican Roxann Robinson. This is a seat that is more Democratic than the 26th, would be tougher to tear up in redistricting, and is exactly the kind of area Democrats need to win to take back the House. Instead, we are not even competing. Which tells you all you need to know about where Democrats are in the House of Delegates right now and how their immediate future looks.
A Democrat winning in Chesterfield? I doubt it. Ward probably made the right call.
Posted by: yoyoyo | June 14, 2010 at 03:08 PM
I'd suggest you look closer at the parts of Chesterfield within this district- not only did it carry for Barack Obama, but it was the only Chesterfield district that almost went for Kaine (0.2% margin). Not all statewide Democrats do well here, but identified local Democrats tend to overperform in these precincts, especially in local/state elections.
Posted by: Not Larry Sabato | June 14, 2010 at 03:16 PM
We should always run a candidate, however. I hate just handing Republicans a victory without trying. It's demoralizing for Dems in the district.
Which is why I COMPLETELY support the time and resources being given for the Wagner campaign. What is the worst that happens? We lose but have helped develop a strong candidate for future office, created a broader fundraising base, brought in some potential new voters, shown once again the Democratic Party is in the Valley and we want to win. Seems like a good deal to me.
And who knows? Maybe we DO pull it off and we pick up a new Delegate in the mist unlikely of areas. Even if for a short time, I would rather the party be moving forward in this way than simply standing still or worse (like not running a candidate!) moving backwards
Posted by: Gretchen Laskas | June 14, 2010 at 03:22 PM
Uh, Gretchen, I guess you didn't Ben's earlier posts about typos....
(See the candidate's name in your post.)
Posted by: Gordon Sumner | June 14, 2010 at 04:28 PM
If what Ben says is true -- and that is a big IF -- tHe Democrats should be supporting candidates in state races. But Ben typically loads his gun, shoots from the hip, and wounds himself on all too many claims. Plus, he usually has a hidden agenda!
Posted by: TomPaine | June 14, 2010 at 06:30 PM
(confessing about being terrible about typos. Sorry!)
Posted by: Gretchen Laskas | June 14, 2010 at 06:53 PM
The saddest part of the 27th for Dems is that the paper that covers the district, The Chesterfield Observer, has really been hard on the GOP candidate. It will be interesting to see how close the margin is in that district, b/c I believe that if some money came in, the Dems could have stolen a seat against such a weak candidate.
Posted by: Ghost of Ted Dalton | June 14, 2010 at 08:26 PM
NLS, you're spot on about Ward... and we wonder why Martinsville/Henry County can't get any jobs...
Posted by: Samuel Gilleran | June 14, 2010 at 10:43 PM
Ward sucks
Posted by: Ham | June 15, 2010 at 08:26 AM
Regarding the race in the 26th ... there were lots of reports of voting irregularities in the City of Harrisonburg this morning. Electronic poll books were down, and people were being turned away in droves instead of being offered provisional ballots ... absolutely no similar reports from the far-more-Republican portions of the district. Shades of 2008, when Republicans tried to do exactly the same thing in Hburg ...
Posted by: HburgDem | June 15, 2010 at 08:38 AM
Hburg Dem, surely you must be mistaken. Republicans engaging in vote suppression? That never happens.
Posted by: Karl "turdblossom" Rove | June 15, 2010 at 11:41 AM
" Republicans engaging in vote suppression? That never happens."
Except when it does happen!
Posted by: TomPaine | June 15, 2010 at 03:34 PM
Here's the latest on voting "irregularities" in the 26th. http://hburgnews.com/2010/06/15/early-morning-voting-snafus-fixed/
Some have implied that this was somehow intentional, but I'm more prone to believe it's incompetence on the part of the registrar's office -- the same registrar that made headlines in 2008 http://notlarrysabato.typepad.com/doh/2008/10/harrisonburg-re.html
Posted by: Brent Finnegan | June 15, 2010 at 04:10 PM
Brent, did anything ever happen with a prosecution regarding those forms?
Posted by: Not Larry Sabato | June 15, 2010 at 04:22 PM
Ben,
I don't think much ever came of the SBE review (Logan remains the registrar). http://hburgnews.com/2008/12/12/city-registrar-in-the-spotlight-again/
Posted by: Brent Finnegan | June 15, 2010 at 04:44 PM