Virginia Congressional Preview

1st Congressional
Safe Republican

Rob Wittman may be headed to a landslide victory, but Krystal Ball got an action figure out of the campaign.  I say that makes both of them winners.

2nd Congressional
Leans Republican (Pickup)

Glenn Nye's campaign has been entertaining as he attempts to slash and burn Scott Rigell and turn Democrats out to vote.  Unfortunately for him, many people in his own base hate him worse than a Republican for being such a turncoat in Congress.  Hence, I don't think his strategy is going to work- this one goes to the GOP on Tuesday.



3rd Congressional
Safe Democratic

I hope Bobby Scott doesn't get discouraged by the results Tuesday around the rest of the country.  Virginia Democrats need him to stick around.

4th Congressional
Safe Republican

Randy Forbes wins without a problem here.

5th Congressional
Leans Republican (Pickup)

It felt like Tom Perriello was turning things around the last couple weeks and really putting Robert Hurt on the defensive, but bringing Barack Obama to the 5th will halt that momentum.  This looks like another GOP pickup on Tuesday.



6th Congressional
Safe Republican

For the fifth time in the last six cycles, Democrats have failed to even have a candidate against Bob Goodlatte.

7th Congressional
Safe Republican

Hopefully Eric Cantor enjoyed this campaign, because 2012 and his likely primary challenge from the Tea Party is not going to be fun for him.

8th Congressional
Likely Democratic

Jim Moran will underperform here again- and as always it will be self-inflicted.  But the 8th is just too Democratic for a Republican to make a run at- and Patrick Murray isn't the guy who could do that anyway.

9th Congressional
Toss Up

Somehow, I don't think Tom Perriello will be on Rick Boucher's Christmas card list this year after he brings Barack Obama into the 5th today and dominates many of the shared media markets with the 9th with coverage of Obama.  This race has been trending to Morgan Griffith all summer, and if turnout were at Presidential year levels, I think Griffith would have this race locked up.  Griffith's problem is that Boucher will crush him among seniors- and seniors will vote in droves in the 9th CD this year. 

Griffith's voters are greater in number, and less likely to show up.  If turnout is high, Griffith wins- if it's low Boucher will pull it out.

10th Congressional
Safe Republican

Earlier this year, Jeff Barnett's campaign manager bragged to some people about his "strategy" of hoping blogs like this one ignored his race to avoid any critiques of his candidate or their performance.  When I heard, I decided to give them what they wanted.  I'm sure the biggest fan of their "strategy" is Frank Wolf.

11th Congressional
Toss Up

It's hard to imagine a candidate as dumb as Keith Fimian beating Gerry Connolly in an election in Northern Virginia.  But honestly, I've got no idea what's going to happen here on Tuesday.  There's no question this is close and both campaigns are being very careful of which voters they are speaking to.  This may be one race that comes down to ID's and who had the better lists.

Comments

[Greg]

Ben

I think you're pretty much right across the board. Only difference between our predictions is I actually put numbers on all 4 and have the Rs winning them all (I know I'm biased but I'm trying to be objective using public and private polling and "other information").

Rigell wins 52-46
Hurt wins 50-47
Griffith wins 49-47
Fimian wins 51-49

Tuesday is going to be very interesting.

[kelley in virginia]

yes, I am a huge supporter of Robert Hurt. and yes, I think he will win.

I do not think there will be irregularities in my county of Lunenburg because we know each other: Dem, Republican, independent, whacky, whatever.

[Martha]

If you live in the 6th Congressional please write in the name : Linda Wyatt.
Linda is a former Roanoke teacher,former member of Roanoke City Council and present Chair of the ^th District Democrats.

[Martha]

Sorry...6th Congressional democrats.

[Steve Vaughan]

Rigell
Periello-Hurt goes to recount-who knows then?
Boucher, but his closest race ever.
Connolly, but it's close.

[Loudoun Insider]

Hilarious take on the 10th! I put it up at TC.

[kelley in virginia]

steve: Perriello-Hurt does not go to recount. Hurt wins.

[VAPolitico]

Kelley,

Perriello-Hurt does go to recount. Perriello wins

(probably because he's from NY or has George Soros money or union thugs or something)

I do think Tom P. actually wins though.

[Bev Fitzpatrick for President]

This blog turns into more of a GOP rag every day.

[rowhey]

It appears that Perriello and the rest of the Kool-Aid drinkers in the 5th CD will have one last Jim Jones style blowout today in Charlottesville. True believers until the end. I give them credit for that.

[Give me a freakin' break!]

"Kool-Aid drinkers"?

Please! That term was retired to the Cliche Hall of Fame quite some time ago. It's use speaks mostly to the extreme lameness of the person using it.

Try to keep up.

Or maybe you are a "hep cat" who thinks you are the "bee's knees". In which case you should probably go ahead and continue to use well worn cliches and terms that long ago passed from the lexicon. Except among the hopelessly out of touch. Such as yourself.

[Red Dem]

just heard Connolly v Fimian on Kojo, and it degenerated into a 4th grade food fight. I don't want either of them representing me.

[kelley in virginia]

vaPolitico: Perriello is one helluva campaigner, no question about that. But he won't beat Robert Hurt.

and though it will be close (1-4%), we will know Tues night, early Wed a.m.

[Brian W. Schoeneman]

This isn't even close to a GOP rag. You want one of those, go read my blog. Ben is simply calling it like he sees it and I agree with him on all of these predictions, as do most of the observers I've been reading over the last few days.

[Gretchen Laskas]

To be honest, I haven't read any blogs where I could truly believe that the prognostications weren't influenced by partisan or personal feelings. Part of what makes blogs interesting, after all, is their partisan or personal bent.

So that said: for what it's worth, given my own partisan and political biases I'll call them like I see them -- I think Rigell wins, Hurt wins by less than 2% (which means it's still close enough to keep doing what we're doing), Boucher wins and Connolly wins.

[Dan]

"It's hard to imagine a candidate as dumb as Keith Fimian beating Gerry Connolly"

Ben's distaste for Gerry Connolly is well known. Yet he is able to overcome that and give an honest assessment of Fimian as a terrible candidate who will probably cost the Republicans a seat that may have been winnable in a year like this. That is hardly the stuff of a "GOP rag".

Brian is right. Ben is just calling them as he sees them.

[Bev Fitzpatrick for President]

This right here explains Ben's technique more than anything else: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_reading

Anyone who can't see that knows nothing about politics in Virginia.

[Gretchen Laskas]

On the VERY slim chance that Fimian somehow pulls off a win on Tuesday, I'll be the first to say that I wish that Herrity had won the primary (assuming this means he would have also won the seat.) But as a paritsan activist three days out? I'm very thankful that Herrity did not win the primary.

[kelley in virginia]

i agree with Gretchen's predictions. She is probably better informed than I, but based on everything I read (from all newspapers/blogs/news sites) she is dead on. Though Gretchen, I'm pulling for Robert Hurt to do slightly better.

BUT, I have drawn to an inside royal straight flush a few times in my life. Maybe Tuesday will be one of those days for Republicans.

[Not Ben]

I look forward to LMAO @ Steve Vaughn and his rose-colored picks on Tuesday night.

Holy shit, what a maroon.

[Spock]

VA politics as usual, we have a choice between picking a$$holes or idiots...are we having fun yet?

I am going to vote for the Greens who are running in Arlington...just on the matter of principle....

[SE VA MWC Alum]

Rigell-fairly close
Hurt-very close
Connolly-fairly close

Between Boucher and Griffith I dont know. The latest Survey USA poll has me worried. I hope Boucher pulls it out. But I make no projection here.

[SE VA MWC Alum]

oh and all three amendments by solid margins. Not that I support them all, but they all carry.

[Bubby Hussein, Hillbilly Sheikh]

Rowhey knows more about 1864 than he does about the 2010. He hasn't picked a winner since Ollie North...oh wait a minute.

[Sam]

I usually laugh at the people who say "I don't trust the polls," but the polls are all wildly different from each other this year, so I'll be the first to admit my "predictions" are just guesses, probably affected by my partisanship:

Rigell by 3-5%
Perriello by less than 200 votes
Boucher by 2%
Connolly by 1-2%

[Not Larry Sabato]

Gretchen's comment pisses me off.

[Gretchen Laskas]

Sorry! Didn't mean to piss you off. We all have biases -- one of mine is that I don't believe that anyone is truly objective. That isn't directed at you personally, though, just at life in general.

[Steve Vaughan]

Not Ben: Guess you can laugh at Sam too then. I think our predictions are pretty close to the same. I think Rigell might do a little better than that, but not much.

[Joe Taylor]

Cook switched the 11th to toss-up.

http://cookpolitical.com/charts/house/competitive_2010-10-28_16-06-26.php

[Not Larry Sabato]

Gretchen- In 2009, 2007, and 2005 for every general assembly seat (300+ predictions at this point) I had almost a perfect record. So, I take that kind of ridiculous comment personally. Go say that on Blue Virginia.

[VAPolitico]

Ben, get thicker skin. Your prediction statistics are complete bullshit.

[Gretchen Laskas]

Ben (she said gently) if you're right (and I don't know that you aren't -- you certainly have a great record) then it shouldn't matter what I say. Truth, after all, is its own reward.

[froslo]

Promote your free hosted blog using Froslo. Froslo - Free Dofollow RSS Directory.

[kelley in virginia]

if anyone hears of any polls on any of our Cong. races, could you post here?

[novamiddleman]

Ok guys I need some help. I can't vote for Fimian or Connolly in good faith.

Whats a good writein

[frank]

The answer is clear between Fimian and Connolly. If Connolly wins, he will stay longer than Robert Byrd did in WV.

If Fimian wins, then about 700 Democrats will line up to take him out in 2012.

[strongerthandirt]

Amen to what novamiddleman said: who's a good write in for the 11th?

What terrible choices. I may have to vote Libertarian.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Nova, stronger:

Vote for the crook- it's important.

[98.82% Bull]

Did Ben just endorse Connolly? If so, Fimian definitely wins.

[Poly]

Can you clarify what safe, likely, leans, and tossup mean? Perhaps in terms of probability and/or margin?

[Lauren Yoder]

Come on, if you are so good you need to make a prediction in the 9nth. Anyone would have a good record if they stayed away from tight races.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Lauren, in an election with 150,000+ people voting, why should I guess who might get 300 or 500 more votes? I rate races based on a number of factors, and if those are inconclusive, I report that.

[strongerthandirt]

I guess Ben means Connolly. I may have to vote that way. This morning I was thinking -- how bad can Fimian be? And than at about 5:00 pm I got a robo-call from Bob "Makes Everyone Else Look Sane" Marshall saying why I should vote for Fimian.

Aaargh!

BTW, that is a bonehead move by the local GOP. It's like Obama going into central Virginia.

[novamiddleman]

It fits with Fimians strategy and the general wave strategy.

The people most fired up right now are the right wing/tea party types. Marshall drives up turnout for those types of people.

Also, Bob Marshall keeps getting elected and his margin would be larger today. I don't think Obama would be elected in central VA today.

[Willie Deutsch]

I think most people underestimate the real magnitude of the political tsunami coming. I think after all the results are in there is a strong chance the Dems last remaining representative is Bobby Scott. Also who is the tea party setting up tp challenge Cantor?

[Flora]

I don't live in the 11th CD, but received at least 10 phones calls from the Fimian campaign and the R's. So if it comes down to who the candidates have on their lists, then Connelly is a shoe in.

[cheap jewelry]

Thanks for your share,thanks a lot.Good luck!

[replica jewelry]

Thanks for your share,thanks a lot.Good luck!