This map of the Northern Virginia Senate districts from the Democratic plan pretty much says it all.
Sigh.
Here's the basics of the two plans:
House Republicans eliminated four Democratic districts (Robin Abbott, Ward Armstrong, Paula Miller, Bud Phillips) and moved them into more GOP areas that should provide four pickups. Additionally the open seat of Albert Pollard and the soon to be open seats of Bill Barlow and Joe Johnson (likely this cycle or next) were kept in strongly GOP. That's a pickup of 5-7 seats this year for the GOP, with seats currently held by David Bulova, Eileen Filler-Corn, Jim Shuler and Lynwood Lewis all kept competitive for open seat races or very strong GOP challengers in the future.
That puts Republicans on a base of 66 seats out of 100, with two more likely to flip to them soon- and four others they can be competitive in- for a total universe of 72 seats.
Meanwhile, I'm not even sure what to say about these Senate lines. On paper they improve Democratic performance in some swing districts, but do so by lowering it in safer districts. The problem with this is a lack of understanding by the Democrats of what off/off year electorates look like. In the lowest turnout elections, Republicans can come dangerously close to Democrats even in places like Alexandria and Arlington with the right candidates, because the Democratic vote in those areas is younger and extremely unlikely to show up in off/off year elections or special elections. Say for example in the new 30th that Libby Garvey from Arlington won the D nomination and Republicans fielded a serious candidate from Alexandria City. If the GOP could keep Alexandria close (and they won 2 of 6 Council seats there last time, plus came within 16 votes of stealing a House seat in a special election) then the district would be a dead heat going into a handful of Dem precincts in Arlington and GOP precincts down the river in Fairfax. In a Governor's election with higher turnout this type of district would give Democrats a solid 55-67% win no matter how bad the cycle, but in an off/off year election this could be a major problem.
District after district has a similar problem, where you can pinpoint specific GOP candidates who could win the seats. I only saw 11 safe Democratic seats out of 40 in the Senate, when it was easily possible to start that with 16 or 17 safe seats with the same number of swing seats in the middle.
Given how close the margin of error is here for success, I don't think Democrats can hold the Senate under these lines this November, and this alignment of precincts has absolutely zero chance of holding for the entire 10 year cycle (2011, 2015, 2019) it was drawn for.
A GOP lock on the House, and the Democratic Senate imploding itself. I'm at a loss for words.